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How confident are you in the FO to turn this around?


cHawk
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I’m not going to make this a poll, rather, a short answer.

This season has been awful, and it has seen the Twins deal Jose Berrios, probably the only pitcher the Twins have managed to develop in a while. He was dealt for two Top 100 Prospects.

After this season’s trade deadline, the Twins find themselves in a position where they will need to develop their pieces to fill in spots on the major league team.

Question: How confident are you in this FO and Coaching Staff to develop these prospects to their fullest?

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I have no idea. Last year really messed up our ability to judge them at developing players. Possibly a lame answer, I know, but still.....

That said, I'm not SUPER confident. They have zero, nada, nil, nyet, zippo, RPs, let alone SPs to show for their time here that they developed that we have a lot of confidence in at this point.

So, I guess I do have an idea, I'm not super confident, but I'm also willing to admit we don't have enough data yet.

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26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea. Last year really messed up our ability to judge them at developing players. Possibly a lame answer, I know, but still.....

That said, I'm not SUPER confident. They have zero, nada, nil, nyet, zippo, RPs, let alone SPs to show for their time here that they developed that we have a lot of confidence in at this point.

So, I guess I do have an idea, I'm not super confident, but I'm also willing to admit we don't have enough data yet.

A year ago, I was probably 70/30. Now I’m 50/50 because, as you said, 2020 really stunted our ability to judge the farm system and we’re still seeing the after effects of that today.

Maybe next year, I guess. 

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Generally, low although I'm willing to admit that "FO" is a bit vague. I have almost no confidence in Levine but I'm not as sure about Falvey.  I'm not quite as diplomatic as Mike is. This FO simply failed in their first go around and I don't think we need too much longer to pull the plug.

I'm not sure we need to go over every move over five years but the bad overwhelms the good, in my opinion. The Twins have a -3.5 WAR from their pitching staff this year. Nearly 8 WAR worse than the second worst team. That's insane. And it'll probably be a lot worse by the end of the season.

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1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

Generally, low although I'm willing to admit that "FO" is a bit vague. I have almost no confidence in Levine but I'm not as sure about Falvey.  I'm not quite as diplomatic as Mike is. This FO simply failed in their first go around and I don't think we need too much longer to pull the plug.

I'm not sure we need to go over every move over five years but the bad overwhelms the good, in my opinion. The Twins have a -3.5 WAR from their pitching staff this year. Nearly 8 WAR worse than the second worst team. That's insane. And it'll probably be a lot worse by the end of the season.

I guess I'm also more willing to give them credit for 2019 and 2020 and how much better the team was in those years than the previous ones (though that was about trades and FA.....). But, that makes me more confident than I would otherwise be.

The thing that REALLY gets me is they have zero RPs to show in five years. That's almost impossible.

BTW, if you look at hitter WAR, the O is fine, the baserunning not ideal but whatever, but the D? Yikes, the D is really bad. Like, really, really bad.

This FO has utterly ignored fielding in the draft, other than Lewis....with a lot of hit first guys that don't really have a position. And no, they get no credit for Buxton.....

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8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I guess I'm also more willing to give them credit for 2019 and 2020 and how much better the team was in those years than the previous ones (though that was about trades and FA.....). But, that makes me more confident than I would otherwise be.

The thing that REALLY gets me is they have zero RPs to show in five years. That's almost impossible.

BTW, if you look at hitter WAR, the O is fine, the baserunning not ideal but whatever, but the D? Yikes, the D is really bad. Like, really, really bad.

This FO has utterly ignored fielding in the draft, other than Lewis....with a lot of hit first guys that don't really have a position. And no, they get no credit for Buxton.....

I think you brought up a good point. They've drafted a lot and Larnich and Jeffers were good picks and it's too early to give up on the others BUT they've missed a lot and they've drafted a lot of DH/1B/Mashers. It's ok to have too much depth if they will move that depth but we see that they didn't and we lose guys like Baddoo and Wade (not trying to restart that discussion). I just can't figure out this FO's thinking.

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3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I think you brought up a good point. They've drafted a lot and Larnich and Jeffers were good picks and it's too early to give up on the others BUT they've missed a lot and they've drafted a lot of DH/1B/Mashers. It's ok to have too much depth if they will move that depth but we see that they didn't and we lose guys like Baddoo and Wade (not trying to restart that discussion). I just can't figure out this FO's thinking.

Right....I was told over and over that they could draft a bunch of great hitters then deal them for pitchers.....

I mean, I really like the Berrios trade, but that guy might not have a position either.....

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Can they fix it next year? Will they ever fix it?

1. It is very hard to see how they will replace Berrios in the '22 rotation.

2. Unless Rocco changes his tactics in games where they are behind, they will never develop our relievers.

3. They drafted average speed with Jeffers, Kiriloff & Larnach. (and Arraez.) They need to teach them to be smart base runners.

4. Teach the outfielders to hit the cut off man. There are too many runners reaching 2b on singles because of futile throws to home.

5. Can't anybody throw the ball over the darn plate???  :)

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I'm not sure. More confident than under Ryan, which doesn't say much, but not sure Falvey/Levine are the answer either. I think there definitely needs to be some changes on the development side or we'll get more of the same. Maybe one more off-season will have me landing definitively on my opinion of where we are and can we 'right the ship' next year.

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3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I really like the Berrios trade, but that guy might not have a position either.....

No comment on the Berríos trade.

I think Martin will settle into a position the same way Kirilloff did (I feel Kirilloff belongs at first base). I still like Lewis as a guy with great makeup who will play up the middle. Light hitting but solid glove guys can be picked up along the way. 

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Short answer: im not. 

Longer answer: Ive gone back and forth on them over the years, and what happens the rest of the season and off season could change my mind. I have no idea what direction they're really going for, but if through fa, trades, and prospect development they can put a team that plays watchable baseball on the field in 2022, ill be happy. I feel slightly better than I did two weeks ago, but things have just gone from really bad, to really bad with some new faces.

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The Twins have a bunch of good to great near MLB ready pitching prospects in Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Duran, Canterino, Ryan, Winder, Strotman, Sands, and Vallimont. The team's future depends heavily on whether that group turns into 3-4 legitimate major league starters that include 1 or more front of the rotation type guys. If the pitching pipeline produces, I think the team can be competitive next season and contend again in 2023. If the pitching doesn't materialize, I don't know that the front office can buy and trade their way out of their massive pitching deficit. Right now i have reasonably high confidence about the future, but if the pitching pipeline doesn't show results during the rest of this year and early next season that confidence will evaporate.

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55 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I think it's also fair to point out that this FO has already had two "total system failure" seasons. I dunno. I hope they have a plan but I'm worried that the plan is something like, "Maeda is our ace, build from there."

He’s still a solid rotation piece. But yeah. Not ace material.

And I think that the FO is smart enough to see that, so I’m not worried.

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I'm in limbo.  I'm not confident, nor not confident.  As others have said, this past offseason really stunted any momentum they really had.  So far though, that has been the outlier.  The lack of seriousness being taken towards the pitching staff this past offseason really, really bothers me.  It comes off as cocky.  For a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game, let alone a WS, in what seems like a millennium, that level of complacency is absurd.

But, I do like what they were able to get at the trade deadline.  I can see that the farm system is bottom heavy, so I think that we've yet to see the full potential of their ability to develop players.  The tendency to draft hit first players only is brow raising.  I'll concede that there are some benefits, but I value defense quite a bit.  This upcoming offseason will be key for me to form a full opinion.

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5 hours ago, cHawk said:

He’s still a solid rotation piece. But yeah. Not ace material.

And I think that the FO is smart enough to see that, so I’m not worried.

The Dodgers thought so highly of Maeda that they consistently traded for someone better mid-season relegating him to the bullpen come postseason... but he's our "ace" and it's not even close.

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6 hours ago, twins_89 said:

The Twins have a bunch of good to great near MLB ready pitching prospects in Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Duran, Canterino, Ryan, Winder, Strotman, Sands, and Vallimont. The team's future depends heavily on whether that group turns into 3-4 legitimate major league starters that include 1 or more front of the rotation type guys. If the pitching pipeline produces, I think the team can be competitive next season and contend again in 2023. If the pitching doesn't materialize, I don't know that the front office can buy and trade their way out of their massive pitching deficit. Right now i have reasonably high confidence about the future, but if the pitching pipeline doesn't show results during the rest of this year and early next season that confidence will evaporate.

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they inherit some top pitching in 16? Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Mejia, Thorpe, Jorge, Wells Jax, Graterol. The problem I have with the players you mentioned is age, injuries and/or command.

Winder - 25 when next season starts, has an ERA of 4.67 in St. Paul averaging just over 4 innings a start.

Duran - Injuries will be 24 when next season starts and has a 5.06 ERA in St. Paul, with 13 walks in 16 innings.

Balazovic - will be 24 when the season starts, nothing really to complain about other than he has never pitched more than 93.2 innings in the minors so there should be no real expectation that he is going to pitch 150 innings in the majors for a few years.

Canteriono - will be 24 when the season starts, is injured and the highest he has pitched is high A.

Sands - will be 25 next July in AA, like Balazovic has never pitched more than 97.1 innings (College) and he is back down to averaging less than 5 innings per start.

Vallimont - Will be 25 in March, has walked 36 guys in 59.1 innings in AA.

Strotman - Turns 25 in less than a month, 33 walks in 58.1 innings (AAA TB), seems like a guy they Twins should have up since he is on the 40 and might be somebody they have to let go over the winter.

Ryan- 25, projects as a relief pitcher from what I have heard.

Woods-Richardson - love him is a real prospect being that he turns 21 shortly and in AA, big K's low walks

IMO most of these guys are too old to be considered real prospects (that doesn't mean that can't and won't be good to great) and in another post a few weeks ago, I pointed out that most top of the rotation guys have already been in the majors and performing by this age. For example Berrios was an All Star in his age 24 season and had been in the majors for parts of three years.

 

 

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I'm like a lot of you.  I'm kind of split on this.  They did a terrible FA job last off season by signing pitchers off the scrap heap.  And now the franchise may be set back for years.  My guess is the Twins will sign Buxton this off season if only to try and placate disgruntled fans.  As for the great traded the Twins made we traded our best pitcher and our best hitter for suspects, I mean prospects.  I sure hope they work out.  I do think a top to bottom evaluation of all FO and field staff needs to be done.  As a fan it sure looks like a long 2-4 years to be relevant again.  Same old same old!!!

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7 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I think it's also fair to point out that this FO has already had two "total system failure" seasons. I dunno. I hope they have a plan but I'm worried that the plan is something like, "Maeda is our ace, build from there."

This.  Not sure how anyone can be more that just skeptical at this point (and doubtful is not out of the realm).  Yes 2019 was a great year with juiced baseballs and the Twins stacked with hitters who could put it in the seats.  Ball changes and so did the hitter results.  2020 really can't be judged good or bad given the strange circumstances all year.  That leaves the other 3 yrs which have not been good.  So color me between skeptical and doubtful.

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25 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they inherit some top pitching in 16? Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Mejia, Thorpe, Jorge, Wells Jax, Graterol. The problem I have with the players you mentioned is age, injuries and/or command.

Winder - 25 when next season starts, has an ERA of 4.67 in St. Paul averaging just over 4 innings a start.

Duran - Injuries will be 24 when next season starts and has a 5.06 ERA in St. Paul, with 13 walks in 16 innings.

Balazovic - will be 24 when the season starts, nothing really to complain about other than he has never pitched more than 93.2 innings in the minors so there should be no real expectation that he is going to pitch 150 innings in the majors for a few years.

Canteriono - will be 24 when the season starts, is injured and the highest he has pitched is high A.

Sands - will be 25 next July in AA, like Balazovic has never pitched more than 97.1 innings (College) and he is back down to averaging less than 5 innings per start.

Vallimont - Will be 25 in March, has walked 36 guys in 59.1 innings in AA.

Strotman - Turns 25 in less than a month, 33 walks in 58.1 innings (AAA TB), seems like a guy they Twins should have up since he is on the 40 and might be somebody they have to let go over the winter.

Ryan- 25, projects as a relief pitcher from what I have heard.

Woods-Richardson - love him is a real prospect being that he turns 21 shortly and in AA, big K's low walks

IMO most of these guys are too old to be considered real prospects (that doesn't mean that can't and won't be good to great) and in another post a few weeks ago, I pointed out that most top of the rotation guys have already been in the majors and performing by this age. For example Berrios was an All Star in his age 24 season and had been in the majors for parts of three years.

 

 

Outstanding post and shows my thoughts as well.  We have seen a total of 0 pitchers make a presence in the pen or rotation during their tenure.  We keep hearing about this 'pitching prospects' but are not seeing many at the big club and the ones we have are not impressive to say the least.  Maybe that changes, but maybe (given the post above) it does not....

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I just want to know what their golf handicap was when they started with the Twins and what it is now. Also would like to know what their favorite lunch spots are. No excuse whatsoever for this season other than bad decision after bad decision including the manager. "Let's go ahead and trade for player X. Hand me a 3 wood. I'm going for the green in 2."

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8 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I think it's also fair to point out that this FO has already had two "total system failure" seasons. I dunno. I hope they have a plan but I'm worried that the plan is something like, "Maeda is our ace, build from there."

What are the 2 seasons? 2021 obviously, but 2017 was their first year in charge and went from a .364 win% to .525. Then back down to .481, but I don't think that's "total system failure." 2019 and 2020 were .623 and .600 win% seasons. They took over the "total system failure" team from 2016, they didn't oversee it.

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1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I'm like a lot of you.  I'm kind of split on this.  They did a terrible FA job last off season by signing pitchers off the scrap heap.  And now the franchise may be set back for years.  My guess is the Twins will sign Buxton this off season if only to try and placate disgruntled fans.  As for the great traded the Twins made we traded our best pitcher and our best hitter for suspects, I mean prospects.  I sure hope they work out.  I do think a top to bottom evaluation of all FO and field staff needs to be done.  As a fan it sure looks like a long 2-4 years to be relevant again.  Same old same old!!!

If they’re set back 2-4 years, it wouldn’t be because of the FA Signings, since they were all on 1-year deals. It would be more likely they were in trouble after 2021.

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8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What are the 2 seasons? 2021 obviously, but 2017 was their first year in charge and went from a .364 win% to .525. Then back down to .481, but I don't think that's "total system failure." 2019 and 2020 were .623 and .600 win% seasons. They took over the "total system failure" team from 2016, they didn't oversee it.

2018. If you click the link, you'd see posts from TD complaining about the TSF season. The six game winning streak against Chicago at the end of the season added a little polish to the turd of the season.

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Just now, gunnarthor said:

2018. If you click the link, you'd see posts from TD complaining about the TSF season. The six game winning streak against Chicago at the end of the season added a little polish to the turd of the season.

Those 6 games don't count? Do I get to take away a random 6 game losing streak in the middle of the season? That makes no sense. The record is the record. And they were 3 games under .500. Really doing a disservice to the phrase "total system failure" if 3 games under .500 is being described that way. Disappointing? Sure, but total system failure is a crazy description for that team.

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they inherit some top pitching in 16? Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Mejia, Thorpe, Jorge, Wells Jax, Graterol. The problem I have with the players you mentioned is age, injuries and/or command.

Winder - 25 when next season starts, has an ERA of 4.67 in St. Paul averaging just over 4 innings a start.

Duran - Injuries will be 24 when next season starts and has a 5.06 ERA in St. Paul, with 13 walks in 16 innings.

Balazovic - will be 24 when the season starts, nothing really to complain about other than he has never pitched more than 93.2 innings in the minors so there should be no real expectation that he is going to pitch 150 innings in the majors for a few years.

Canteriono - will be 24 when the season starts, is injured and the highest he has pitched is high A.

Sands - will be 25 next July in AA, like Balazovic has never pitched more than 97.1 innings (College) and he is back down to averaging less than 5 innings per start.

Vallimont - Will be 25 in March, has walked 36 guys in 59.1 innings in AA.

Strotman - Turns 25 in less than a month, 33 walks in 58.1 innings (AAA TB), seems like a guy they Twins should have up since he is on the 40 and might be somebody they have to let go over the winter.

Ryan- 25, projects as a relief pitcher from what I have heard.

Woods-Richardson - love him is a real prospect being that he turns 21 shortly and in AA, big K's low walks

IMO most of these guys are too old to be considered real prospects (that doesn't mean that can't and won't be good to great) and in another post a few weeks ago, I pointed out that most top of the rotation guys have already been in the majors and performing by this age. For example Berrios was an All Star in his age 24 season and had been in the majors for parts of three years.

 

 

Yeah, right now it doesn't look like the Twins have another Berrios, let alone future ace, in their system. I like Woods-Richardson, Ryan, Balazovic and Winder. Solid, real prospects. But I wish we had a Mize or Giolito in the system.

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9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Those 6 games don't count? Do I get to take away a random 6 game losing streak in the middle of the season? That makes no sense. The record is the record. And they were 3 games under .500. Really doing a disservice to the phrase "total system failure" if 3 games under .500 is being described that way. Disappointing? Sure, but total system failure is a crazy description for that team.

 

The effect for Twins fans who watched the team was that the team was utterly playing below expectations, that nothing worked. It was a system failure. Again. The six game winning streak at the end of the season, after it was all done and we just ruined our draft position, was icing on the cake we had to sit through. Your opinion may be different. I don't care. This FO inherited a great system and a great nucleus, threw the white flag on a playoff team in 2017, mucked everything up in 2018 (including getting taken in several trades), gave us one great season (2019) and another TSF this season. They've relied too much on the Dobnaks, Smeltzers, Jaxs of the world that makes me think they have no idea on how to build starting pitching - although that might be Falvey's end game. Maybe he just sees a bunch of 5 pitcher games as the future of baseball.

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