Here's Why the Twins Have a Stronger Rotation Than the Houston Astros

[renabanena]

In 2019, Justin Verlander edged out his teammate, Gerrit Cole, for his second Cy Young award. At age 37, Verlander can start preparing his Cooperstown speech, yesterday. Although simply having Verlander at the top garners the Astros consideration as best rotation in baseball, the Twins have a stronger rotation than Houston in 2020, particularly since Cole is now with the Yankees and Zach Greinke moves in to the second spot in the Astro's rotation.If you are thinking that this/I am crazy, you are probably right. The last brilliant idea that I cooked up was a chocolate souffle, which turned out to be much more of a chocolate souf-fail. Without argument, the Houston Astros have the best rotation in the AL West. The Twins are frequently featured in articles about how they *might* have the second best rotation in the AL Central but consistently behind the Cleveland Indians. What leg does this chocolate souffle of a baseball take have to stand on without collapsing into a dark mess of molten egg whites?

 

There are two main reasons. First, we’ve already seen each Astros’ ace, Verlander and now Zach Greinke, at his prime. Prestigious awards aside, this year's Astros aces are 37- and 36-years-old, respectively. However, the best is yet to come for the Twins’ pieces. Second, unlike the Astros, the fluidity of the Twins rotation ensures that one single broken link in the chain will not cause the collapse of the entire rotation. Although there isn’t a “Verlander Trump Card” that the Twins can play, two performances do not dictate the report card for the entire pitching staff.

 

Let’s dive in.

 

According to MLB.com, this is the projected rotation for the Astros in 2020.

 

Astros' Projected Rotation:

• Justin Verlander
• Zack Greinke
• Lance McCullers Jr.
• Brad Peacock
• Jose Urquidy

Other(s): Austin Pruitt, Josh James, Framber Valdez

 

The entire Astros’ rotation fully depends on the performance of their aces. Justin Verlander is the most important piece of the entire rotation. His new right-hand man, Zack Greinke, will be expected to fill the hole that Cole left this season. Like Verlander, Greinke is nearing the final years of his career, and although he has not faced a drastic decline in performance yet, it’s not possible to predict exactly how productive he is going to be this season due to questions with his declining velocity, potential health concerns with age, and the number of innings he will be able to produce.

 

Although he is 11 years younger than Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. is returning from Tommy John surgery, and he has not pitched since 2017. Even if McCullers Jr. has a career season, he will be limited by his innings. After previously seeing poor performances from pitchers such as Lance Lynn, who just had limited spring training in 2018 (but a full season of pitching prior) due to a late signing, there is a cause of concern as to how productive McCullers Jr. will be coming back this year. Lastly, much like Greinke, Brad Peacock is a veteran pitcher, 32-years-old, who is riding out the final years of his career on the back end of the rotation. These four starters are the foundation of their rotation, with the Astros heavily depending on them to remain in their spot in the rotation.

 

Essentially, the Astros are fully dependent on two aging aces who have already seen their prime, a veteran on the decline, a young pitcher coming back from surgery, and a few young hopefuls. To add insult to injury, all of their starters are right-handed.

 

 

Twins Projected Rotation:

• Jose Berrios
• Jake Odorizzi
• Kenta Maeda
• Michael Pineda/Randy Dobnak
• Homer Bailey

Other(s): Randy Dobnak, Rich Hill, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Jhoulys Chacin, Sean Poppen, Cody Stashak,

 

Sarah Langs of MLB.com listed Jose Berrios as one of her dark horses for the 2020 AL Cy Young. She lists his curveball as one of the nastiest pitches in baseball, due to its horizontal movement. Although Berrios has his second half demons, we have not yet seen the best of Jose Berrios. His accolades are yet to come. The average age of a Cy Young winner is 27.2 years old, so Berrios is ramping up to the height of his career, which statistically speaking, will likely be this year or the following season. Although right now, Berrios may not be comparable to Verlander in terms of ace dominance, we could see them on the same playing field as early as this year.

 

 

Unlike the Astros, the remaining pitchers in the Twins’ rotation are in their early 30’s, with no individual pitcher coming back from an entire season of injury who will be expected to fill a spot in the rotation. Lastly, the Twins have several left-handed pitchers that they can bring in to mix up the rotation, such as Hill and Lewis Thorpe. Having a lefty in the middle of the rotation is an undervalued luxury that the Astros do not have.

 

As a final case study, let’s examine the 2019 New York Yankees, a team that was riddled with pitching injuries.The reason for the Yankees success wasn’t because they had a Gerrit Cole in their rotation; it was due to their fluidity and their ability to adapt, whether it was finding the ace within Chad Green or reigniting the fire in Adam Ottavino. The Astros’ dependence on their aces does not allow them the flexibility to adjust to a potential Verlander or Greinke injury. On the other glove, the Twins’ rotation doesn’t have a single point of failure. Like the Yankees, the Twins rotation is a mesh network, where in the case of a break in one link, the entire network can adapt to the missing link and reestablish itself, to be as strong and optimal as it was before the disruption. There are endless young pitchers waiting to establish themselves, many with starting pitching experience, who are more than willing to fill the gap in the rotation.

 

Did I also remind you that the Twins took two of three from the Astros in 2019 with Verlander and Cole on the mound? I rest my case.

 

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[highlander]

Throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping some stick? Berrios is solid. Ordorizzi has a chance to be solid through 5 maybe 6 innings. I personally like and think Big Mike will be number 2 option by playoff time. Then start flinging spaghetti!

[highlander]

And then I forget about Maeda! Nice one Junior. Yeesshh. Although the case could be made that he is throwing spaghetti as a starter.

[twinsfanstreif]

I tend to agree with you on this one. The Astros are extremely top heavy and are relying on two guys who are 37 and 36 respectively. They've been great throughout their careers, potentially both HOFers but even if they both have similar production from last year (unlikely), their rotation drops off a cliff after that. I would be bold enough to say that we have 6 or 7 guys who I would put at their #3 spot. Yes I would love a top end ace like Verlander but a. It's possible we already have one and b. Our depth could prove extremely valuable in the long run

[big dog]

I don't know that I buy this...entirely...but I certainly want to, and it might work out that way.

Go Twins!

[gil4]

 

.

I agree completely - at a loss for words over the lunacy. We spent whole off-season complaining because we still need a #1 starter, and the Astros have two of them. 

 

Ok, this is stronger than my real opinion. I just liked reading between the lines of the blank comment.  There certainly is some added injury risk with older pitchers, and the Twins have better options a the back end of the rotation.

 

Nobody would be surprised if both of these teams made the playoffs, but to win in October it helps a lot to have a couple of guys pitch like aces. Pitchers who have long track records of being aces are better bets to do that.

[Doctor Gast]

The pundits have MN behind HOU, how far behind I don`t know. They had #9 HOU & #10 BOS but now I see it was before Maeda trade

[HrbieFan]

Top to bottom, I will take the Twins for the season. But when October rolls around, it is valuable to have a workhorse like Verlander on the mound. Can Berrios become that guy? That is our hope and I think he has the arsenal to do it

[Diesel]

Verlander and Grienke are future hall of famers. I could see Grienke fall of a cliff this year though. That velocity isn’t going any higher....... I would personally take the Astros rotation as is, but an injury would really hurt them

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

Nobody would be surprised if both of these teams made the playoffs, but to win in October it helps a lot to have a couple of guys pitch like aces. Pitchers who have long track records of being aces are better bets to do that.

I especially like this paragraph.    You may not like that we don't have what is commonly known as an ace but we have seen Berrios and Odorizzi pitch like aces and shut down good teams.   We have also seen aces get knocked around.   You would prefer to have the better bets as you say but that is all they are.   In any given game with Verlander vs Berrios it is probably something like 60-40 in favor of Verlander but its not more than that.    KC won without aces.    The 16 game losing streak is a complete anomaly.   Statistics say we should have been more like 9-16 in that time and maybe even advanced at least once.   I also liked that it was pointed out we took two of three from Cole and Verlander.     

[Dantes929]

As far as Berrios you can see that the curveball in the clip is nasty but is more horizontal than vertical.  Most of his curveballs last year seemed to be more horizontal.  If you just face him once he could make you look really bad.  I wonder if that is easier to track and lay off as the season goes by and more film and at bats accumulate.   I only saw a small clip of ST this year but the one I saw was more vertical and way nasty.   Just that small change of plane can make a ton of difference.  I know in high school there was a guy from Delano that threw a ridiculously huge breaking curve ball but after your knees buckled the first few times if you stuck in there you could hit it.   A good 12-6 curveball is tough to hit even if you know its coming.

[joefish]

Dream on. Dream until your dreams come true.

And maybe this is the year.

[Darius]

Couldn’t disagree more.

 

They have the reigning Cy Young winner. Zach Grienke will be just as good as anyone on the Twins rotation (expect for Berrios, IMO). McCullers has just as much upside as anyone if he’s healthy. The bottom of the rotation is every bit as good, if not better, than guys like Bailey, Dobnak, etc.

 

Also, it can’t be discounted that the Astros have a much longer track record of getting extra out of pitchers than the Twins.

 

From what I’ve seen, Maeda is already being vastly overrated by many folks before even throwing a pitch here. I think we saw peak Odorizzi last year. Putting too much stock into Bailey’s small sample size of improvement is kind of silly given his age and track record. Berrios has yet to show that he can get hitters out in August/September. Dobnak and Smeltzer will almost certainly regress.

 

The optimism is great. But, we’ve been trying a little hard lately to convince ourselves/others how great this rotations is lately. A lot of best case scenarios have turned into baseline for some people.

 

I also don’t think some random ESPN article mentioning Berrios as one of 65 possible Cy Young dark horses is evidence of anything. It keeps getting brought up as support in these articles.

[4twinsJA]

I think the Astros will fall off this year. Going to be hard to carry around that baggage this year will wear them down. Also, the pitching reasons mentioned in article, relying in 2 36-37 year old pitchers as the top of their rotation. Bound to be a dropoff, take the under at Vegas for wins.

[etwink]

I’m not sure which part of this straw man article was the most pronounced; comparing a starting rotation likely built for 162-game success to one that is clearly superior in a short series (apples and oranges) or sharing two videos which were picked solely to make the Astros look 1) foolish and 2) inferior to the Twins.

You “might” have a point, but this article didn’t make it.  Sorry.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would take the Twins relief pitchers over the Astros' relievers. I realize this article is about the starters, however the relievers will be pitching 30% to 35% of the innings, even if the starters are going 6 innings. I also think the curse of the trash can will be a factor, even though the Astros will try to use the unending questions and the clever taunts to motivate themselves. 

[jimbo92107]

I have five jars of the best spaghetti sauce you can buy. Still, it's just not the same as having a steaming plate of spag at a trattoria, which is Italian for expensive Italian restaurant. 

 

Granted, I can add good stuff to a jar of spaghetti sauce, which is why Johnson is here. Can he make these $3 dollar jars of sauce taste like a hundred bucks? 

 

Yummmmm.

[cardsfan]

The only starter that any opposition player from a team that is above .500 worries about facing the Twins is Berrios.

 

I wish Bailey was back in my division. Odorizzi is a good 5-6 inning pitcher who is beneficial to a team with good mid-inning relief. Hill at 41 years wouldn't be in the major leagues if he had been traded to a last place team instead of being serviceable by the Dodgers.

Maeda wasn't traded by the Dodgers because they thought he wasn't replaceable.

 

No wonder why I like the NL. Pitching is better except for Colorado which no pitcher can figure out.

[Twodogs]

I think McCullers will be limited as far as innings go this year, but don't kid yourself, when that guy pitches he is every bit as nasty as Berrios. So if he throws 130 - 140 innings and they are end of the year loaded the Stros will have a number 3 that is as good or better than our #1. The Twins have more depth probably, but to try and compare, Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, and Pineda to Verlander, Grienke, and McCullers is apples to oranges.

[TwinsFan347]

The Astros have so many question marks this year, predictions are more difficult than ever. So my opinion on the topic of the article is primarily focused just on the Twins side of the equation.

 

The Twins rotation is more than adequate for the regular season - Plenty of depth and more than enough quality with what appears to be a very good/deep BP. I will say this on the comparison there isn't a chance I would want to swap starting pitching staffs with the Astros. With that said a lot of that sentiment is based on factors beyond just production in 2020.

 

One note on the comments - there multiple comments placing the Astros as an elite post-season rotation (if they make the post-season). These comments are primarily based on Verlander and Greinke as the other three projected members of their rotation have minimal playoff experience. Last fall Verlander and Greinke combined to produce the following stats - IP - 60 1/3, ERA - 4.48, HR's allowed - 14. Not terrible stats, but I would argue definitely not elite.