Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[Dman]

 

Where does Donaldson keep his horses?

 

Most likely Atlanta.  Will he take less money to go there?

[bunsen82]

 

I'm fascinated that people know with such certainty what is happening.

I see a lot of guessing and reading tea leaves, but nobody for certain as to what is happening. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

So if you think Atlanta is the low bidder, then you think Washington is the high bidder?  You do know that they would want to defer money so they would truly not be the high bidder with the time value of money.  

 

Minnesota is most likely the high bidder right now irrespective of previous bids this year.  They were the high bidder for Cruz last year. 

 

What I think and what is actually happening might not be the same things. It's just a guess based on prior history.

 

Them being the high bidder on a one year deal, and them giving up 100 mill are totally different things. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I see a lot of guessing and reading tea leaves, but nobody for certain as to what is happening. 

 

The tea leaves are still a better source then Jim Bowden though.

[nicksaviking]

Given his age it's probably less likely, but I wonder if any of the teams have offered, or if he is asking for an opt out?

[howeda7]

 

He's expressed interest in returning to Atlanta and it's been reported he would give them an opportunity to match offers.  If they had the top offer on the table, you would have to assume he would already accepted it.

It would seem Atlanta has made an offer but it's not the top one. I'm saying we seem happy sitting back and waiting while he squeezes them enough to be satisfied. Time to tell him to decide or you're moving on. After signing Will Smith, I'm guessing the Nats might be out. We might be his best offer. He can take it or not. I'm guessing we're also holding on any discussions about David Price waiting for this to settle.

[bunsen82]

 

What I think and what is actually happening might not be the same things. It's just a guess based on prior history.

 

Them being the high bidder on a one year deal, and them giving up 100 mill are totally different things. 

They are only different in your mind based on the years of the deal and the amount of money.  That does not mean that Minnesota will never be the high bidder on any other free agent, especially when the current league's use of the designated hitter, highly elevates the value of Donaldson for the Twins compared to the value the NL teams will have of Donaldson. 

[Twodogs]

The longer this drags out the less likely I feel that he will be signing for the Twins.

[scottz]

 

Most likely Atlanta.  Will he take less money to go there?

I suppose it depends on a number of things. I'd have to analyze it to determine where he was going to sign. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Donaldson. Is he the sort of man who would put his horses in his own pasture in Atlanta, or someone else's in Minnesota? Now, a clever man would put his horses into his own pasture in Atlanta, because he would know that only a great fool would expect to see those horses in Minnesota. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Minnesota. But Donaldson must have known I was not a great fool; he would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Atlanta.

But horses are prey animals and grazers, as everyone knows. And they spend about 16 hours a day grazing pasture grasses while always looking around for predators. And prey animals are used to not trusting they are safe, just like I do not trust Donaldson to sign in Minnesota. So I can clearly not choose that he will sign here. And Donaldson must have suspected I would have tried to figure all this out, so I can clearly not choose that he will sign in Atlanta!

He beat the crap out of us when he was in Oakland and Toronto, which means I don't want to ever face him again. But he might want to have the chance to beat the crap out of us again, trusting on his National League team to face us in the World Series. So I can clearly not choose that he'll sign in Minnesota. But he's also made $80 million dollars through his age 33 season, which means he understands how to negotiate. And in negotiating with a four year contract on the table, he must have deduced that this could be his last contract, so he would want to sign for as much money as possible, so I can clearly not choose that he'll take a discount to sign in Atlanta!

You're still reading? You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a free agent bidding war unless you are willing to overpay." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never read a scottz post on a Friday afternoon and expect to get any real information!"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The difference would be that it would seem that if Washington is the high bidder that means they are over the luxury tax and if the Braves were the high bidder he'd probably already have signed. 

 

It's possible that Washington is willing to go over the luxury tax, but that's not a given, and certainly they'd only do so reluctantly. Unlike the other situations, this one does seem to make more sense that the Twins may be the current high bidder, particularly if they're offering their now standard $100M figure. 

 

Cot's has the Nationals at $38 mil under the luxury tax, before signing Harris ($8 mil). So it's certainly not authoritative that the Nats couldn't be matching or beating the Twins offer on the table right now, even without any significant deferred money. (And deferred money could keep them even further under the luxury tax, if they wanted.)

 

And the Braves could be roughly matching the Twins and Nats at a lower figure and Donaldson simply wants someone to go higher before he signs. We saw something like that with Bumgarner, where the reported offers (including Arizona) were all around 4/70, and ultimately he got Arizona to go up to 5/85 before signing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I suppose it depends on a number of things. I'd have to analyze it to determine where he was going to sign. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Donaldson. Is he the sort of man who would put his horses in his own pasture in Atlanta, or someone else's in Minnesota? Now, a clever man would put his horses into his own pasture in Atlanta, because he would know that only a great fool would expect to see those horses in Minnesota. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Minnesota. But Donaldson must have known I was not a great fool; he would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Atlanta.

But horses are prey animals and grazers, as everyone knows. And they spend about 16 hours a day grazing pasture grasses while always looking around for predators. And prey animals are used to not trusting they are safe, just like I do not trust Donaldson to sign in Minnesota. So I can clearly not choose that he will sign here. And Donaldson must have suspected I would have tried to figure all this out, so I can clearly not choose that he will sign in Atlanta!

He beat the crap out of us when he was in Oakland and Toronto, which means I don't want to ever face him again. But he might want to have the chance to beat the crap out of us again, trusting on his National League team to face us in the World Series. So I can clearly not choose that he'll sign in Minnesota. But he's also made $80 million dollars through his age 33 season, which means he understands how to negotiate. And in negotiating with a four year contract on the table, he must have deduced that this could be his last contract, so he would want to sign for as much money as possible, so I can clearly not choose that he'll take a discount to sign in Atlanta!

You're still reading? You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a free agent bidding war unless you are willing to overpay." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never read a scottz post on a Friday afternoon and expect to get any real information!"

Inconceivable!

[Squirrel]

I suppose it depends on a number of things. I'd have to analyze it to determine where he was going to sign. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Donaldson. Is he the sort of man who would put his horses in his own pasture in Atlanta, or someone else's in Minnesota? Now, a clever man would put his horses into his own pasture in Atlanta, because he would know that only a great fool would expect to see those horses in Minnesota. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Minnesota. But Donaldson must have known I was not a great fool; he would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Atlanta.

But horses are prey animals and grazers, as everyone knows. And they spend about 16 hours a day grazing pasture grasses while always looking around for predators. And prey animals are used to not trusting they are safe, just like I do not trust Donaldson to sign in Minnesota. So I can clearly not choose that he will sign here. And Donaldson must have suspected I would have tried to figure all this out, so I can clearly not choose that he will sign in Atlanta!

He beat the crap out of us when he was in Oakland and Toronto, which means I don't want to ever face him again. But he might want to have the chance to beat the crap out of us again, trusting on his National League team to face us in the World Series. So I can clearly not choose that he'll sign in Minnesota. But he's also made $80 million dollars through his age 33 season, which means he understands how to negotiate. And in negotiating with a four year contract on the table, he must have deduced that this could be his last contract, so he would want to sign for as much money as possible, so I can clearly not choose that he'll take a discount to sign in Atlanta!

You're still reading? You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a free agent bidding war unless you are willing to overpay." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never read a scottz post on a Friday afternoon and expect to get any real information!"

Lol!

 

POTY!

 

 

(So far)

[scottz]

 

Lol!

POTY!


(So far)

Even if I don't win, I'm just honored to have been nominated.

[Squirrel]

Even if I don't win, I'm just honored to have been nominated.

Yeah, hold on until Jan. 4

[DocBauer]

Inconceivable!

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its the process of elimination. We know Atlanta is the low bidder, that leaves Washington and us.  Just by the mere fact that Washington wants to defer money that likely leaves us as the high bidder.  The twins also have an advantage with the designated hitter vs the other teams knowing they can get extended value from just purely the bat or giving Donaldson rest days from playing 3rd base by being DH unless the other teams would want to gamble that the NL will have the DH within 2 years.  Many also forget we were the high bidders for Cruz last year.  No one knows for certain, but most likely we are the high bidders in my mind. 

I don't think this process leads to the Twins being the clear high bidder right now, by a reasonable amount.

 

Atlanta's offer is 4 years now. It's quite possible that they're in the same hypothetical 4/85-ish territory as the Twins and Nats offers, and Donaldson is simply waiting for someone to go to $100 mil or add a 5th year. See my post above -- even Bumgarner didn't sign Arizona's first offer, when it was close to the other reported offers. Donaldson quite likely has both a preference for Atlanta *and* a dollar/year figure he is pursuing -- it's not strictly an either-or situation.

 

And I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Washington simply due to deferments. Corbin's 6/140 mil contract last winter only had very minimal deferments ($10 mil from 2024, the last year of the contract, is paid out in 2025). Yes, Strasburg and Scherzer both have deferments, but they're also both 7 year, $210+ mil contracts, which really give no indication about if or how much Washington would want to defer a 4/100-ish deal for Donaldson. The Corbin example suggests any Donaldson deferrals could be minimal, if not non-existent.

 

(FWIW, Strasburg's deal has a present-day value of 93.4% considering deferments. A comparable amount for a Donaldson deal may only be $6-7 mil. I wouldn't be so sure that the Nats offer couldn't beat the Twins offer by that amount.)

 

That's not to say the Twins *aren't* the current high bidders. But we really don't have enough evidence to jump to that conclusion yet (has anyone leaked an actual offer dollar figure yet? It all seems to be years and speculated dollars).

 

Edit to add: if Atlanta is still the favorite, Washington also has pretty strong incentive to win Donaldson's services or at least bid up Atlanta as high as possible, since Atlanta is their chief division rival!

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I suppose it depends on a number of things. I'd have to analyze it to determine where he was going to sign. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Donaldson. Is he the sort of man who would put his horses in his own pasture in Atlanta, or someone else's in Minnesota? Now, a clever man would put his horses into his own pasture in Atlanta, because he would know that only a great fool would expect to see those horses in Minnesota. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Minnesota. But Donaldson must have known I was not a great fool; he would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Atlanta.

But horses are prey animals and grazers, as everyone knows. And they spend about 16 hours a day grazing pasture grasses while always looking around for predators. And prey animals are used to not trusting they are safe, just like I do not trust Donaldson to sign in Minnesota. So I can clearly not choose that he will sign here. And Donaldson must have suspected I would have tried to figure all this out, so I can clearly not choose that he will sign in Atlanta!

He beat the crap out of us when he was in Oakland and Toronto, which means I don't want to ever face him again. But he might want to have the chance to beat the crap out of us again, trusting on his National League team to face us in the World Series. So I can clearly not choose that he'll sign in Minnesota. But he's also made $80 million dollars through his age 33 season, which means he understands how to negotiate. And in negotiating with a four year contract on the table, he must have deduced that this could be his last contract, so he would want to sign for as much money as possible, so I can clearly not choose that he'll take a discount to sign in Atlanta!

You're still reading? You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a free agent bidding war unless you are willing to overpay." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never read a scottz post on a Friday afternoon and expect to get any real information!"

I got no real information out of reading this post. So you succeeded. 

[scottz]

 

I got no real information out of reading this post. So you succeeded. 

 

I figured my window was open in 2020 and that to be a top poster, I would have to target making only impact posts. However, all the true impact of this thread happened on page 1, so consider this post my Homer Bailey. Indeed, that is success.

[Squirrel]

I figured my window was open in 2020 and that to be a top poster, I would have to target making only impact posts. However, all the true impact of this thread happened on page 1, so consider this post my Homer Bailey. Indeed, that is success.

Lol ... okay, this one is POTY

[USAFChief]

Yeah, hold on until Jan. 4

scottz: "as you wish" would have been the proper response, but you missed it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Many also forget we were the high bidders for Cruz last year.  No one knows for certain, but most likely we are the high bidders in my mind. 

Being the high bidder on a 1/14 contract isn't really a meaningful precedent here, is it?

 

Aside from the contract being for far less than a Donaldson deal, Cruz was projected by MLBTR to get a 2/30 deal, so our "high bid" was actually a bit of bargain shopping, in the context of that market. You may as well cite us being the high bidder for Lance Lynn 2 years ago too for all it might suggest about the Twins being the high bidder for Donaldson around 4/100.

 

By comparison, Donaldson was projected by MLBTR to get 3/75 and is already beating that, in terms of years anyway.

 

Hopefully we know more soon, but without any reported dollar figures, I'd say it's more likely that the Twins are simply in a mix of comparable offers at this point, rather than any kind of clear top bidder. It seems like that's where we were with Darvish, Wheeler, and even Bumgarner before another team (or teams) upped their bid to get it done.

[scottz]

 

scottz: "as you wish" would have been the proper response, but you missed it.

I'm not familiar with that reference.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I figured my window was open in 2020 and that to be a top poster, I would have to target making only impact posts. However, all the true impact of this thread happened on page 1, so consider this post my Homer Bailey. Indeed, that is success.

You left out Rich Hill. Here I thought he was our impact. I've been foiled by Homer again....

[dex8425]

 

I agree he is playing the Twins. I do however, doubt we are the highest offer. Is it possible, yes, but they never have been in the entire history of the ballclub. 

 

That said. I'm guessing Atlanta is the low bidder. I really don't know what is so attractive about Atlanta. Hot, sweaty, dirty town, tons of crime. He probably likes his team and feels they have a great chance(which they do).

 

I'm so-so on him anyway. While he would be nice to have, I don't really think spending that kind of dough on a position player of his age when pitching is in such dire need is a great idea. That said, if they aren't going to spend at all, then I'd rather they give him the dough rather than pocket it. 

Also notably, Atlanta's traffic is even WORSE than the Twin Cities.

[scottz]

 

You left out Rich Hill. Here I thought he was our impact. I've been foiled by Homer again....

My Rich Hill posts won't begin until June or July.

[Squirrel]

I'm not familiar with that reference.

Inconceivable!

[Puckett34]

Did not expect so many The Princess Bride references so early in the year. And on a Friday nonetheless. Always welcome.

[USAFChief]

Also notably, Atlanta's traffic is even WORSE than the Twin Cities.

if only Falvey had listed this among our assets in the first place!

[Dman]

 

I suppose it depends on a number of things. I'd have to analyze it to determine where he was going to sign. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Donaldson. Is he the sort of man who would put his horses in his own pasture in Atlanta, or someone else's in Minnesota? Now, a clever man would put his horses into his own pasture in Atlanta, because he would know that only a great fool would expect to see those horses in Minnesota. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Minnesota. But Donaldson must have known I was not a great fool; he would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose that he signs in Atlanta.

But horses are prey animals and grazers, as everyone knows. And they spend about 16 hours a day grazing pasture grasses while always looking around for predators. And prey animals are used to not trusting they are safe, just like I do not trust Donaldson to sign in Minnesota. So I can clearly not choose that he will sign here. And Donaldson must have suspected I would have tried to figure all this out, so I can clearly not choose that he will sign in Atlanta!

He beat the crap out of us when he was in Oakland and Toronto, which means I don't want to ever face him again. But he might want to have the chance to beat the crap out of us again, trusting on his National League team to face us in the World Series. So I can clearly not choose that he'll sign in Minnesota. But he's also made $80 million dollars through his age 33 season, which means he understands how to negotiate. And in negotiating with a four year contract on the table, he must have deduced that this could be his last contract, so he would want to sign for as much money as possible, so I can clearly not choose that he'll take a discount to sign in Atlanta!

You're still reading? You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is "Never get involved in a free agent bidding war unless you are willing to overpay." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never read a scottz post on a Friday afternoon and expect to get any real information!"

 

That was pretty funny.  Feel free to reply to my posts anytime.  I think I have read it three times now.  Thanks for the laughs, giggles and snorts!

[sweetmusicviola16]

Starlin Castro to the Nats on a 2/12. I wonder how that effects their pursuit of JD? I wouldn't rule out LAD being in play either.