Front Page: Slinging Frisbees: 3 Reasons Why the Twins Bullpen Will Be Dominant in 2020

[Nash Walker]

The Twins’ bullpen went from shaky to downright phenomenal as the season went on in 2019. There are three prominent reasons why the bullpen will find more success in 2020 ...1.) They are right-handed heavy

 

As currently constructed, the Twins bullpen will include righties Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler and potentially Cody Stashak, Fernando Romero or Ryne Harper. The only proven lefty at this point is Taylor Rogers, with Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe looming as long-relief candidates.

 

While the Twins could use one more reliable left-handed specialist, their bullpen is built for the AL Central. The division is filled with right-handed sluggers such as Franmil Reyes, Eloy Jiménez, José Abreu, Jorge Soler, and Hunter Dozier. Most of the prominent switch-hitters, Carlos Santana, and Francisco Lindor, have a higher career OPS against left-handed pitching. Yoán Moncada is the one switch-hitter that has generally been better against right-handed pitching.

 

Outside of the Central, the AL contenders are also largely right-handed at the plate. The Yankees’ lack of variety has been noted, and the Astros best position players, Alex Bregman, José Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa, are all right-handed. Duffey and May were actually better against lefties in 2019, but the difference in OPS was marginal and they will likely return to the league norm in 2020.

 

2.) They have wipeout sliders

 

With the acquisition of Wisler and the re-signing of Romo, the Twins confirmed they will have a slider-filled bullpen. Wisler threw his slider more than 70% of the time in 2019 and generated a 41% whiff rate and expected slash line of .193/.248/.298. Romo had similar numbers, throwing his slider 60% of the time with a 33% whiff rate and .186/.229/.300 expected slash line.

 

It isn’t just Wisler and Romo. Rogers threw his slider at a 35% clip and relied on it much more than he did in 2018. His slider was nasty, pulling a 36% whiff rate and a .171/.215/.284 expected slash line. Duffey also had a revelation with the pitch, throwing it 30% more often in 2019. Different pitcher, same result. Duffey generated a 42% whiff rate and opponents hit .169/.227/.289 against his slider. This doesn’t seem like a coincidence.

 

The nasty slider ties in directly with the right-handed heavy construction of the bullpen. Righties hit .205/.248/.394 off Romo in 2019, while lefties have hit .203/.270/.268 off Rogers in his career. Their sliders are a primary reason for this. Here is a look at how Rogers uses his slider-fastball pitch mix to shut down left-handed hitters:

 

 

3. They throw strikes

 

The worst thing a reliever can do is issue walks. The Twins’ bullpen jumped from eighth to first in walks per nine innings from 2018 to 2019. In strikeout-to-walk ratio, the Twins ranked second in the American League. Throwing strikes helped the bullpen rank first in MLB in FIP and fourth in SIERA. The Twins had four relievers that averaged more than one strikeout per inning. Rogers, Duffey, May and Romo all averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

 

The young pitchers in the system seem to have been primed to limit walks and push for strikeouts. Stashak entered the bullpen in late July and pitched 25 innings down the stretch. Stashak produced a 3.24 ERA and 3.01 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 25-to-1. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe combined for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 92-to-27 in 105 innings in 2019.

 

There is depth in this bullpen that simply can’t be found on every club. Duffey, May, Clippard, Rogers and Romo all showed in 2019 that they are reliable in high-leverage situations. The Twins also have a plethora of lower-leverage arms like Stashak, Littell, and Wisler. The group mostly struggled in the postseason, but Rocco Baldelli and company know they can depend on this group to remain extremely effective in 2020.

 

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[bobs]

  Pretty clear what's happening here.  You've got the high leverage guys like Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo and the rest of them will be on the Rochester Express, burning through options.

[ChrisKnutson]

Another high leverage lefty and our bullpen might finally be capable withstanding a WS run. Fortunately, that guy might already be on the 40 man roster (Smeltzer). Although, with lefties like Buchter and Cingrani available, why take a risk??

[DocBauer]

I am very excited about the pen with what is returning and the re-sign of Romo and the signing of Clipppard.

 

There are enough options available that the Rochester shuttle can still play.

 

Not sold on Wisler. He has to prove it. Maybe Johnson can help him do that. For now he is a flier.

 

Despite the new way of thinking, Rogers has emerged as the closer. But with other arms on hand, it doesn't mean he can't be a "fireman". But right now, he's the closer. May, Duffey and Clippard have the 7th and 8th. Romo, Littel and Stashak have the 6th and 7th.

 

Even though I think Smeltzer is destined for a role in the pen, I'd still feel better if we brought another option on board. Don't get me wrong, I think he could be very good in that role, I just hate to pigeon-hole him there just yet. I also think Thorpe could be outstanding in the pen. But that's his floor, IMO. I'd keep him as a rotation piece for now.

 

The FO seems to think, IMO from what I am seeing, that an addition LH BP piece is either on hand, or can be developed by the staff from the fliers they are bringing on board.

 

Any way you look at it, I'm really, really liking the potential make-up of the pen.

[etwink]

Excellent summary of what we’ve been seeing since the All Star break.  With the knowledge that SOMEone is going to have a poor year, given the law of averages, there is enough depth of potential impact guys in AAA that this group nearly can’t help but be a strength.

[Otwins]

Deepest bullpen I can ever remember the Twins having. When you look at the acquisition costs either $'s or in trades it makes it more impressive. Very well done by the front office. I am pretty sure Wade Davis makes as much as our bullpen. If you add in one of the overpaid set-up guys I am sure it is more.

[RaoulDuke]

I wanted a clear upgraded stud RH closer type to pair with Rodgers, and I still think that is the missing piece come playoff time.  But I am on board with the moves they have made for the pen.  2 vet late inning guys + May + promising guys is a good pool.

 

Rodgers is the ace

 

May is the heat

 

Romo/ Clippard are the frisbees

 

Smetlzer/ Colombe/ Hardy/ Thielbar are battling for the lefty spot

 

Littel/ Wisler/ Stashak/ Harper all have stuff

[Doctor Wu]

What's the consensus on Graterol for 2020? In the best-case scenario that he makes the club out of spring training, is he a starter or do they stick him in the bullpen again?

[Major League Ready]

 

Deepest bullpen I can ever remember the Twins having. When you look at the acquisition costs either $'s or in trades it makes it more impressive. Very well done by the front office. I am pretty sure Wade Davis makes as much as our bullpen. If you add in one of the overpaid set-up guys I am sure it is more.

 

Davis made $18M last year / $17M this year. Our BP total is $16.5M. It's not likely to get any more expensive the next couple years either. Between the BP and the rest of our core we are in a position to take a chance on Ryu's durability or just sign Donaldson. I would like to see them trade Rosario and sign both.

[Jham]

Pretty clear what's happening here. You've got the high leverage guys like Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo and the rest of them will be on the Rochester Express, burning through options.

I don't think you can do that anymore with the 26 man roster and 15 day recall limitation going into effect this year. I was a huge advocate for use of options and the shuttle for several years, and was delighted when we used it, and more delighted when it worked. But I can't justify shuttling a better arm down to bring a fresher arm up knowing that I can't get the better arm back for 15 days. We should see the return of the traditional long man now. (I'd still prefer he have options)

 

That said, I would certainly look at the use of a shuttle to rotate a 6th starter to keep the rotation (Berrios) fresh. It appears that between Thorpe, Graterol, Romero (hopefully a starter), Smeltzer, and Dobnak that we will easily have the interchangeable depth to pull it off. Each pitcher would rotate up for a start every 15 to 18 days. With off days, a particular pitcher could be used as much as every other trip through the rotation. The cycle would probably start with a pitcher being rostered and reserved as an extra long man for 5 days (perhaps with a short appearance mixed in), starting the 6th day and then exchanging places. Of course, if anyone performs great, you might keep them up rather than skipping them.

 

Actually, I'm kind of selling myself on this the more I'm talking about it...

[AceWrigley]

 

What's the consensus on Graterol for 2020? In the best-case scenario that he makes the club out of spring training, is he a starter or do they stick him in the bullpen again?

I'm pretty sure the Twins want him to start. Both Graterol and Thorpe will need innings limitations, so maybe they form a starter/relief sharing role with probably about 150 max innings from each of them. That is if they pitch effectively and we don't acquire another starter.

[MMMordabito]

Great article and summary of why we should be excited about this part of the team. I did get a little worried when I saw "Slinging Frisbees" though. I thought it might be a "Pining for Hildenberger" piece.

[mikelink45]

I see names like Wisler, Harper, and Colombe and Thielbar and I get a queasy feeling.  I see the minor leaguers and I feel better.  I am not sold until I see it play out in the season.  Perhaps our best BP ever, but too many question marks - can Romo keep his luck, can Clippard continue to baffle the hitters?  

[Ben Derflott]

 

I wanted a clear upgraded stud RH closer type to pair with Rodgers, and I still think that is the missing piece come playoff time.  But I am on board with the moves they have made for the pen.  2 vet late inning guys + May + promising guys is a good pool.

 

Rodgers is the ace

 

May is the heat

 

Romo/ Clippard are the frisbees

 

Smetlzer/ Colombe/ Hardy/ Thielbar are battling for the lefty spot

 

Littel/ Wisler/ Stashak/ Harper all have stuff

No love for Duffey as the RH closer type?

[DocBauer]

Still wondering and holding out hope where Romero fits in at some point.

[bobs]

 

I don't think you can do that anymore with the 26 man roster and 15 day recall limitation going into effect this year. I was a huge advocate for use of options and the shuttle for several years, and was delighted when we used it, and more delighted when it worked. But I can't justify shuttling a better arm down to bring a fresher arm up knowing that I can't get the better arm back for 15 days. We should see the return of the traditional long man now. (I'd still prefer he have options)

That said, I would certainly look at the use of a shuttle to rotate a 6th starter to keep the rotation (Berrios) fresh. It appears that between Thorpe, Graterol, Romero (hopefully a starter), Smeltzer, and Dobnak that we will easily have the interchangeable depth to pull it off. Each pitcher would rotate up for a start every 15 to 18 days. With off days, a particular pitcher could be used as much as every other trip through the rotation. The cycle would probably start with a pitcher being rostered and reserved as an extra long man for 5 days (perhaps with a short appearance mixed in), starting the 6th day and then exchanging places. Of course, if anyone performs great, you might keep them up rather than skipping them.

Actually, I'm kind of selling myself on this the more I'm talking about it...

I thought they should've used some 6-man rotation last year for that very reason.  Guys like Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe fit that long man/extra starter mold.

[joefish]

A strong bullpen is a "must have" with shorter starts becoming the norm. Cheaper than ACES too.

[ashbury]

A strong bullpen is a "must have" with shorter starts becoming the norm. Cheaper than ACES too.

I want a shutdown bullpen.

 

But when you look at the costs, it's not a relative bargain. An elite reliever will command $10M+ a season if on the open market. Get three of them, and you're paying Ace money, to cover around the same number of innings.

 

Relievers below the elite level cost less, but then in the post-season you're taking your chances that they will be exposed.

 

It's always best to acquire relievers without resorting to the open market, of course. That's true of every spot on the roster. But an apples-to-apples comparison of building a strong bullpen versus finding an Ace starter seems close.