Article: What Will It Take to Acquire Marcus Stroman?

[SwainZag]

 

MLB.com suggests that getting Stroman will require a Chris Archer type package.

 

Another intriguing guy from the Blue Jays would be Daniel Hudson. Control is a little iffy, but he has been pretty good since June 1st.

 

Stroman is and never has been the quality of pitcher that Archer was before the trade.  That would be a drastic overpay IMO

[Bart07]

What if we built a trade around Stroman and Giles. What do you think that would cost? Both have one and half years of control left.

 

I think then your getting into looking at Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol as the headliner. I am guessing they would be looking at Graterol as the only arm coming through their system at the moment looks like Pearson.

 

So maybe a package of Graterol, Larnach, Duran and Gordon would work? But giving away one of Graterol, Kirilloff or Lewis will haunt us for the next 10 years plus, so it's about weighing up whether you can win the World Series with a Stroman and Giles?

 

Giles in my eyes is an elite closer in the right situation so I personally would just be looking at Giles, to give us a 1-2 punch of Rogers and Giles at the back of the pen for this and next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The idea that Gordon is MLB-ready is just funny. Remember that when he finally gets called up to some team. My over/under for him being MLB-ready is about 2-3 years after he gets his first call.

 

to be fair, that's true of most minor leaguers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What if we built a trade around Stroman and Giles. What do you think that would cost? Both have one and half years of control left.

 

I think then your getting into looking at Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol as the headliner. I am guessing they would be looking at Graterol as the only arm coming through their system at the moment looks like Pearson.

 

So maybe a package of Graterol, Larnach, Duran and Gordon would work? But giving away one of Graterol, Kirilloff or Lewis will haunt us for the next 10 years plus, so it's about weighing up whether you can win the World Series with a Stroman and Giles?

 

Giles in my eyes is an elite closer in the right situation so I personally would just be looking at Giles, to give us a 1-2 punch of Rogers and Giles at the back of the pen for this and next year.

 

I think you're overpaying by throwing Duran in there personally. I think a lower 3rd piece could get it done. I'd be pushing more for a Gonsalves/Acala type. But that's just me.

 

That said, I'm not a huge Stroman fan, so perhaps that's part of the problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Stroman is and never has been the quality of pitcher that Archer was before the trade. That would be a drastic overpay IMO

Are you sure about that? At the time of the trade, Archer had a career 107 ERA+ and his three most recent season marks were 100, 103, 97.

 

Stroman has a 113 career mark, and his three most recent are 145, 76, 148.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And at Fangraphs, Archer had a career 92 ERA- / 87 FIP- / 84 xFIP-, compared to Stroman's 89/85/84.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,to&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=6345,13431&startdate=2012-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

 

Previous 3 years by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-

Archer

98/93/80

96/80/76

104/88/86

 

Stroman

71/88/82

130/92/91

67/78/88

[Bart07]

Yea I would be pushing for Giles! I like the idea of a lefty (Rogers), righty (Giles) combo at the closer role. So you can bring either Rogers or Giles in depending on the situation. Just think the Blue Jays will ask a lot for him.

[nicksaviking]

If Stroman doesn't start missing more bats, I'd rather look elsewhere. I don't trust pitchers who intentionally pitch to contact here in 2019.

 

If the Rockies are listening to Charile Blackmon, that probably means they'd listen on Jon Gray. He's a name I haven't heard much of but I like to rescue from Colorado.

[ashbury]

If the Rockies are listening to Charile Blackmon

Oh, Colorado, don't do that to Charlie. I just looked at his home/road splits again. Don't ruin a beer-league legend of a career just for your own selfish gain. A Rockie he shall always remain!

 

 

_{^{/ yes yes, he's much better than that}}

[nicksaviking]

 

Oh, Colorado, don't do that to Charlie. I just looked at his home/road splits. Don't ruin a beer-league legend of a career just for your own selfish gain. A Rockie he should always remain!

 

 

_{^{/ yes yes, he's much better than that}}

 

Ha, yeah pretty standard MO for Rockies hitters. After not moving Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez at peak value due to inflated home stats, maybe they've finally learned their lesson and decided to cash in while there's cash to be got. They did do pretty will moving a similar home/road splitter in Corey Dickerson a few years back though.

 

I'd guess other teams might be wise to the ruse by now though. Or at least they can see his age and remaining contract and talk themselves out of liking him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the Rockies are listening to Charile Blackmon, that probably means they'd listen on Jon Gray. He's a name I haven't heard much of but I like to rescue from Colorado.

The Rockies want to get out of Blackmon's contract while they still can. The same principle doesn't apply to Gray at all.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Rockies want to get out of Blackmon's contract while they still can. The same principle doesn't apply to Gray at all.

 

No but he never turned into the ace they always hoped he would, and he probably never will in Colorado. They could probably get back for him a better haul than he's actually worth. Suckers will probably still bite due to his strong velocity and pedigree, and I'm just the sucker for them.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

The Rockies want to get out of Blackmon's contract while they still can. The same principle doesn't apply to Gray at all.

 

The Rockies are intriguing - someone brought them up on Twitter last night, particularly Scott Oberg. Controllable through 2022, so he would be someone I would be willing to go after.

[J_Dobs]

 

I.... I don't think Stroman is actually all that good.... 

 

(ducks) 

I am glad I am not the only one, he would be a improvement over some, he would have the lowest K rate in our rotation... But if we are spending the prospects lets aim higher.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I am glad I am not the only one, he would be a improvement over some, he would have the lowest K rate in our rotation... But if we are spending the prospects lets aim higher.

 

You're not. I've said it too. I don't like that K rate. Perhaps our analytics guys see something that could boost it a point or two, which I'd be a bit more comfortable with. I get that he gets grounders, but he doesn't miss bats. I wouldn't pony up the prospect capital to get him if Toronto is looking for an Archer type trade. That one will be regrettable I suspect.

 

Giles on the other hand... yes please... 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I rather like the Ian Kennedy idea. The fact that his contract calls for him to be paid $16.5 million next year makes him unattractive to almost every team. Along with part of this year's salary it would relieve KC of over $20 million. They are paying him SP money. No one would pay that to a RP. 

So if money is not an obstacle then why not grab him?

As a RP this year he has been outstanding.

(1.24 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, 10.9 K/9)

 

Edit: I hadn't even thought of him until LA Vikes Fan mentioned him.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Oldgoat_MN

[Otto von Ballpark]

No but he never turned into the ace they always hoped he would, and he probably never will in Colorado. They could probably get back for him a better haul than he's actually worth. Suckers will probably still bite due to his strong velocity and pedigree, and I'm just the sucker for them.

Gray has 3.7 bWAR so far in 2019. Only 2 fWAR, but comparable FIP/xFIP to Berrios.

 

Gray had a down 2018, but that seems to be behind him.

[SwainZag]

 

Gray has 3.7 bWAR so far in 2019. Only 2 fWAR, but comparable FIP/xFIP to Berrios.

Gray had a down 2018, but that seems to be behind him.

 

All Gray's numbers actually look better last year except the ERA and a slight down tick in HR's given up.  He is striking out less, walking batters at a higher rate and even has a higher line drive rate this year.  Last year seems to just be an aberration.  He has always pitched similar at Coors than away as well.  I think I would def. take a look at what he would cost if I were the Twins.

[alarp33]

 

I rather like the Ian Kennedy idea. The fact that his contract calls for him to be paid $16.5 million next year makes him unattractive to almost every team. Along with part of this year's salary it would relieve KC of over $20 million. They are paying him SP money. No one would pay that to a RP. 

So if money is not an obstacle then why not grab him?

As a RP this year he has been outstanding.

(1.24 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, 10.9 K/9)

 

Edit: I hadn't even thought of him until LA Vikes Fan mentioned him.

 

It probably makes him unattractive to the Twins as well, unless the Royals are eating at least $5+ million of that contract. 

 

Just because the Twins have money to spend next year, I'm not sure it would be wise to tie up that much of the payroll in still a pretty unproven reliever. 

 

Even if the Royals pick up a decent chunk of that 2020 salary, I can't imagine the cost in prospects would be that significant. 

[KidBro]

 

I doubt the Jays have much interest in Gordon since they have Bichette and Biggio up the middle.

 

They might want him to to complete the Inheritance Infield.  Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, and Gordon.   Surely Gordon has enough bat to occupy 1B.   

[darin617]

So who in the Twins organization would be on the same level as the 2 prospects the Mets gave up for Stroman??

[Mr. Brooks]

So who in the Twins organization would be on the same level as the 2 prospects the Mets gave up for Stroman??

I tossed out Thorpe and Duran in the thread in the Other Baseball forum.

Though the reality is, with guys in this tier, different teams are going to have vastly different opinions of them.

[mlhouse]

Stroman is a Met now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Moved from the Lynn thread:

 

I'm not sure I have an answer to this or your previous post.

 

I'm just assuming that 1.33 years of team control is going to cost more in prospects than 1 year of team control, theoretically.

 

You may be right that these types of pitchers aren't traded often in the offseason, but they also aren't often traded to teams well below .500 at the deadline either. I just found it to be an unusual move. Not necessarily that I think it's bad or the wrong move.

I agree with the theoretically, but reality might not always align with the theoretical. They likely didn't have the option to only buy 1 year of Stroman.

 

Among other upcoming 2020-2021 free agents, there is Bauer and Robbie Ray. It's questionable whether either would be available this winter either.

[Mr. Brooks]

Moved from the Lynn thread:

 

 

I agree with the theoretically, but reality might not always align with the theoretical. They likely didn't have the option to only buy 1 year of Stroman.

 

Among other upcoming 2020-2021 free agents, there is Bauer and Robbie Ray. It's questionable whether either would be available this winter either.

I think it's a near lock that Bauer is traded, if he isn't moved at the deadline.

[sorney]

 

It probably makes him unattractive to the Twins as well, unless the Royals are eating at least $5+ million of that contract. 

 

Just because the Twins have money to spend next year, I'm not sure it would be wise to tie up that much of the payroll in still a pretty unproven reliever. 

 

Even if the Royals pick up a decent chunk of that 2020 salary, I can't imagine the cost in prospects would be that significant. 

I guess I don't think having an extra $5M (assuming Royals don't pay any salary) on the payroll should be a concern.  Twins are trying to win now, if they think he makes them better, they should totally go for him.  There is no salary cap, and they are nowhere near the luxury tax....Just get players to win!!

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by sorney

[Darius]

This is certainly an unusual move. But, I’m guessing the Mets acquired him with the intent to sign him. They have exclusive negotiating rights now, and don’t have to go to auction in the off-season for someone.

 

Stroman grew up there. Im guessing he had some input as well.

 

I guess I don’t find as crazy as some do. Many seem to really be stuck on one idea of why trades are made (only those competing this year). What’s most interesting is what this could mean for Thor. Are they replacing him? Does this mean he’s staying and they are really going for it next year? DeGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman is one hell of rotation.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Darius

[old nurse]

 

So who in the Twins organization would be on the same level as the 2 prospects the Mets gave up for Stroman??

The Mets must not think Kay is going to be much of a starter. You would not trade 6 years of a mid rotation starter for one full year of a front line starter.  A high ceiling with a long shot of being a star. The other pitcher is in the low minors, also a high ceiling with a remote chance to get there. So the answer to your question is the Twins do not have to high ceiling pitching prospects that another team believes is but the Twins do not.

 

[Darius]

The Mets must not think Kay is going to be much of a starter. You would not trade 6 years of a mid rotation starter for one full year of a front line starter. A high ceiling with a long shot of being a star. The other pitcher is in the low minors, also a high ceiling with a remote chance to get there. So the answer to your question is the Twins do not have to high ceiling pitching prospects that another team believes is but the Twins do not.

I think a lot of the franchises willing/able to spend (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, maybe a few others....Mets apparently) would willingly trade 6 years of a potentially mid to back-end back end guy for one year of a front-line guy.

 

First, you’re getting known for an unknown. Second, teams like that can grab a mid-rotation guy in free agency every single year. They don’t care about the cost. They don’t need to delay arbitration and think about the future. They don’t need to wait in the hope that prospects for one small window at s World Series. They want to win, and they want to win now. They want to win every year. They often do also.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Darius

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it's a near lock that Bauer is traded, if he isn't moved at the deadline.

Could be, but I could see preferring Stroman, especially at a lower arb salary than Bauer. Not to mention, "a bird in the hand" and all that -- might be worth a little premium now to lock in one rather than hope the other is still around later. Who knows, maybe the Mets already know Cleveland wouldn't take these two prospects for Bauer.