Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene for............

[curt1965]

Could the Detroit Tigers say no to the proposed trade of Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene to the Twins for:

Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Kole Stewart, and Jake Cave? Boyd is controlled until 2023 and Greene through 2021.

This would give the Twins a top of the rotation left handed starter, and a tough right handed closer to go with Rogers.

The Tigers might ask for someone like Jhoan Duran instead of Stewart.

Is Lewis still untouchable in this situation?

[Mike Sixel]

That seems light. Verlander, older and with less control, cost more. I think you need another top player. Stewart and Cave are AAAA players, most likely. I'd guess Lanarch or some non Kirilloff OF for Cave, and whatever catcher they like best for Rooker. Probably a pitcher better than Stewart.

[Twinsoholic]

Lewis, Rooker, Duran, J. Davis, and Poppen.

[nicksaviking]

Not sure I’m a big fan of Boyd, he kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t see much reason why he improved. He’s still only throwing 91-92 MPH and still doesn’t really have much of an off speed pitch. He feels like a soon to dissipate anomaly to me.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not sure I’m a big fan of Boyd, he kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t see much reason why he improved. He’s still only throwing 91-92 MPH and still doesn’t really have much of an off speed pitch. He feels like a soon to dissipate anomaly to me.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/51304/rubbing-mud-the-how-and-where-and-why-of-matthew-boyd/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That seems light. Verlander, older and with less control, cost more. I think you need another top player. Stewart and Cave are AAAA players, most likely. I'd guess Lanarch or some non Kirilloff OF for Cave, and whatever catcher they like best for Rooker. Probably a pitcher better than Stewart.

Verlander didn't cost more. The headliner was the Astros' #3 prospect, who had a 54/84 ranking on BA/BP top 100, respectively. He wasn't even on the MLB.com list that year.

[darin617]

 

Could the Detroit Tigers say no to the proposed trade of Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene to the Twins for:
Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Kole Stewart, and Jake Cave? Boyd is controlled until 2023 and Greene through 2021.
This would give the Twins a top of the rotation left handed starter, and a tough right handed closer to go with Rogers.
The Tigers might ask for someone like Jhoan Duran instead of Stewart.
Is Lewis still untouchable in this situation?

Stewart & Cave have little to no trade value. I would doubt they would take that offer for just Boyd.

[Vanimal46]

Kudos for starting the offer with Lewis. That's at least the starting point...

[curt1965]

The reason for my post, in part, was this: who would you want the Twins trading for-2 month rentals of MadBum and Will Smith, or pitchers with equal or better talent (Boyd and Greene), that will be a big part of the Twins future?

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins. 

 

Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect. 

 

Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.  

 

Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?

 

If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Kudos for starting the offer with Lewis. That's at least the starting point...

I actually think Lewis and Rooker are a pretty good starting point.

 

But a lot more interesting back-end pieces will be required to make that deal work. Quality back-end pieces with real upside.

[darin617]

 

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/51304/rubbing-mud-the-how-and-where-and-why-of-matthew-boyd/

Please don't put in links that are locked behind a paywall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The reason for my post, in part, was this: who would you want the Twins trading for-2 month rentals of MadBum and Will Smith, or pitchers with equal or better talent (Boyd and Greene), that will be a big part of the Twins future?

Honestly, I'd prefer a mix. If the Twins can get a starter with 1+ year of control, pay for it.

 

Relievers? I honestly don't give a ****. That subset of pitching is so damned volatile that I'd almost prefer the Twins work more on developing their own and using FA to piecemeal a bullpen.

[crapforks]

I would be bummed out if the Twins cashed Lewis in for that haul. Also, I would suspect the Tigers wanting more pitching in that deal. I think Balazovic, Graterol and one of Kiriloff/Gordon would be a likelier ask. Maybe with a Gonsalves/Thorpe type add-in for a sweetener.

[FlauerPauer]

I'll pass on Boyd. Average year last year. Nearly 3 k/9 higher than his career. Not worth a top 10 prospect and then some. Detroit is out of their minds in they think he's worth the house.

 

Greene on the other hand may be a better target. Late inning reliever who has had a consistent k/9 rate. Probably pitching over his head in terms of ERA, but would to be a definite upgrade to the bullpen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I actually think Lewis and Rooker are a pretty good starting point.

 

But a lot more interesting back-end pieces will be required to make that deal work. Quality back-end pieces with real upside.

 

As someone who wants Boyd, I have to agree with this. I think you're likely looking at one of AK, Lewis, or Graterol to headline. Rooker is a good second piece. He's not my first choice, but if that's what Detroit wanted, I wouldn't be holding back.

 

You might (and I emphasize the might) be able to throw in a Mejia/Gonsalves/Stewart type for some 40 man help, but it won't be cave as the other piece. It would be someone like Blankenorn, Alcala, Duran, Jeffers, Rortvedt, etc... someone with upside. I'm not sure Cave is that type.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins.

 

Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect.

 

Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.

 

Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?

 

If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along.

I don't know about this. The A's gave up Addison Russell for 1.5 years of Samardzija and 0.5 years of Hammel. That was considered a bit of an overpay by the A's, although they turned around and sold the last 1.0 years of Samardzija for some quality pieces too (who arguably turned out better than Russell).

 

Here, it's 3.5 years of Boyd and 1.5 years of Greene. I guess if they think Boyd's season is a mirage, they might jump on this, but otherwise, I think a prospect around Lewis's ranking seems like a fair expectation as a starting point.

[Riverbrian]

I don't know about this. The A's gave up Addison Russell for 1.5 years of Samardzija and 0.5 years of Hammel. That was considered a bit of an overpay by the A's, although they turned around and sold the last 1.0 years of Samardzija for some quality pieces too (who arguably turned out better than Russell).

 

Here, it's 3.5 years of Boyd and 1.5 years of Greene. I guess if they think Boyd's season is a mirage, they might jump on this, but otherwise, I think a prospect around Lewis's ranking seems like a fair expectation as a starting point.

I have no idea what the market will be. More buyers than sellers should drive the price up in theory. However the Russell trade was many moons ago and more recent history suggests that prospects are carrying a higher value these days.

 

I know Chapman and Machado were rentals but if you look at the price difference between those two... it suggests a shift in what organizations are placing value on.

 

But yeah... I fully admit I have no idea what the market prices are today but if the Tigers are asking for something similar to what is being suggested. Boyd might be pitching with Mize for the Tigers next year.

[Major League Ready]

 

That seems light. Verlander, older and with less control, cost more. I think you need another top player. Stewart and Cave are AAAA players, most likely. I'd guess Lanarch or some non Kirilloff OF for Cave, and whatever catcher they like best for Rooker. Probably a pitcher better than Stewart.

 

Boyd is having a good year but I doubt GMs would consider today's Boyd anywhere near a comparable pitcher to Verlander when he was traded. Verlander is exactly the type of player that can take a team to the next level and and make a deep playoff run.  Boyd has nowhere near proven he can be that guy. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know about this. The A's gave up Addison Russell for 1.5 years of Samardzija and 0.5 years of Hammel. That was considered a bit of an overpay by the A's, although they turned around and sold the last 1.0 years of Samardzija for some quality pieces too (who arguably turned out better than Russell).

Here, it's 3.5 years of Boyd and 1.5 years of Greene. I guess if they think Boyd's season is a mirage, they might jump on this, but otherwise, I think a prospect around Lewis's ranking seems like a fair expectation as a starting point.

 

But Samardzija had a track record of quality results with good velocity and could throw just about any conceivable pitch. Boyd has been largely terrible until this year, throws low 90's and only has two usable pitches. 

 

Would anyone be talking about him right now if his ERA wasn't under 4.00?

[Mike Sixel]

Boyd is having a good year but I doubt GMs would consider today's Boyd anywhere near a comparable pitcher to Verlander when he was traded. Verlander is exactly the type of player that can take a team to the next level and and make a deep playoff run. Boyd has nowhere near proven he can be that guy.

The big difference is half a year control versus three and a half. No one thinks Boyd has the cache of Verlander.

 

I mean, you'd control Boyd for almost as long as a rookie. If he's even a number three, that's a very valuable player.

[Mike Sixel]

Verlander didn't cost more. The headliner was the Astros' #3 prospect, who had a 54/84 ranking on BA/BP top 100, respectively. He wasn't even on the MLB.com list that year.

Thanks for the correction.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Boyd is having a good year but I doubt GMs would consider today's Boyd anywhere near a comparable pitcher to Verlander when he was traded. Verlander is exactly the type of player that can take a team to the next level and and make a deep playoff run.  Boyd has nowhere near proven he can be that guy. 

I think it depends on whether or not they think that what Boyd is doing is sustainable. He's young enough that this could be his break out season. It's certainly worth the gamble if I'm MN. It's not like he was bad last year, and we've only got Berrios and Perez in the rotation for sure next season. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thanks for the correction.

No worries, the deal is still likely a little bit light because of the control of Boyd/Greene.

 

Which is why I'm not crazy about packaging two players like that, particularly a reliever. Sure, you get a lot of control over Greene, but does anyone really want to pay that much for control over a reliever? I really struggle with the idea of paying that much for a 30 year old reliever who could fall to pieces at pretty much any moment. Look at Addison Reed. He was a match (or slightly better) than Greene and a year or two younger when he came to Minnesota. The dude straight up fell to pieces and will likely be out of baseball permanently.

 

Starters carry a similar risk but they're so much harder to acquire or develop that you kinda have to take on that risk from time to time... but I don't feel the same need with relievers. If you need a reliever, go get a rental or maybe a guy with 1.5 years of control. Don't pay through the nose for 2+ years of control because there's a very good chance that control won't be something you actually want in year two or three.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think it depends on whether or not they think that what Boyd is doing is sustainable. He's young enough that this could be his break out season. It's certainly worth the gamble if I'm MN. It's not like he was bad last year, and we've only got Berrios and Perez in the rotation for sure next season. 

 

I can't read that BP link that was provided earlier. Can anyone paraphrase why they think what he is doing is or is not sustainable? From the things I see, these early season results look like an outlier, but I'm always open to analytically persuasive arguments.

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, I'm not arguing to acquire them or not, I have no idea if Boyd is actually good or not....

[Vanimal46]

Not sure I’m a big fan of Boyd, he kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t see much reason why he improved. He’s still only throwing 91-92 MPH and still doesn’t really have much of an off speed pitch. He feels like a soon to dissipate anomaly to me.

Can't say I'm advocating trading for Boyd either. Though I will say Wes Johnson has been able to add 2+ MPH on essentially every pitcher in the organization. I've got to imagine he will do the same for Boyd. A lefty that throws 93-94 is pretty tempting.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins. 

 

Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect. 

 

Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.  

 

Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?

 

If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along. 

If I am going to trade Royce Lewis, then I want the very best pitcher available that is under team control if I am trading him. Is that Boyd? I'm not sure it is, this looks like a career year from him.  But I think if you are willing to let go of Royce Lewis, it has to be for the very best pitcher you can get and if that takes adding someone to get it done, then so be it. Don't waste the guy getting a #3 starter. 

[Mike Sixel]

If I am going to trade Royce Lewis, then I want the very best pitcher available that is under team control if I am trading him. Is that Boyd? I'm not sure it is, this looks like a career year from him. But I think if you are willing to let go of Royce Lewis, it has to be for the very best pitcher you can get and if that takes adding someone to get it done, then so be it. Don't waste the guy getting a #3 starter.

I'm not sure there is a better starter that isn't a rental available. Which really speaks to the value of pitching.

[Battle ur tail off]

You might be right but I would be on the phone hot and heavy to get into the Mets stable of arms. 

 

Syndergaard is who I would target. I would trade one of Lewis or Kiriloff + 1 other guy. Or, heck, give us Zack Wheeler also and you add another 2 good prospects. These are the types they should target. Power arms. Not this crafty lefty 90-91 mph stuff. Bring in one or both of those studs and lets roll. 

 

Not against going after Wheeler as a rental either. I like both of these guys WAY more than Bumgartner, the cat from Detroit, or the Toronto Blue Jay guy.