Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene for............

[jorgenswest]

I like the control Boyd and Greene offer. Pay up for these two.

 

If they are truly available the winner of this deal will overpay. Every contender can use a good starter and reliever and would be willing to make a reasonable offer.

 

The team making the deal will have to overpay.

 

There are two ways teams will overpay as the deadline approaches. They will take on large contracts or pay up in prospects. Boyd and Greene don’t have large contracts so it is going to take prospects.

 

If we get to August 1st and the Twins haven’t overpaid to get pitching they will not have done enough.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

I would rather have the combo of Stroman and Giles.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But Samardzija had a track record of quality results

 

Not really much of a track record. Samardzija was in his 3rd season as a SP. ERA+ figures of 107 and 89 before the half season of 134 that got him traded. Boyd was at 85 and 101 before this season's 123.

 

I don't know much about Boyd's stuff, but he is a lefty starter with 11.9 K/9 and leading the league with a 7.10 K:BB ratio.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not really much of a track record. Samardzija was in his 3rd season as a SP. ERA+ figures of 107 and 89 before the half season of 134 that got him traded. Boyd was at 85 and 101 before this season's 123.

I don't know much about Boyd's stuff, but he is a lefty starter with 11.9 K/9 and leading the league with a 7.10 K:BB ratio.

 

I like the strikeouts, that's for sure. I also like how controllable he is. Maybe Wes Johnson can add some MPH (if actually needed) as Van suggested, but my biggest concern would be that he's throwing FB/slider 90% of the time. That looks like his biggest change from past years when he threw more off speed stuff; which unfortunately were not good pitches.

 

It seems to me pitchers who only throw two pitches and have some success quickly find the league catching up to them; usually eventually everyone just sits on the more hittable fastball.

[Thrylos]

Boyd is at best at Berrios/Odorizzi level.  The Twins need more.  Plus Boyd's season seems to be a career season very similar to the one Phil Hughes had and got the extension.  Both driven by uncharacteristically low BB/9.  Like Hughes's not sure that Boyd's success will be sustainable.

 

Shane Greene's 1.09 ERA and 0.879 WHIP are a mirage caused by his .181 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%.  His FIP is 3.72 and xFIP 3.98.

 

I'd pass on both and there is no way in hay I would trade Lewis or Rooker in the division.  Maybe for Giolito + Colome, but still....

[Mike Sixel]

Boyd is at best at Berrios/Odorizzi level. The Twins need more. Plus Boyd's season seems to be a career season very similar to the one Phil Hughes had and got the extension. Both driven by uncharacteristically low BB/9. Like Hughes's not sure that Boyd's success will be sustainable.

 

Shane Greene's 1.09 ERA and 0.879 WHIP are a mirage caused by his .181 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%. His FIP is 3.72 and xFIP 3.98.

 

I'd pass on both and there is no way in hay I would trade Lewis or Rooker in the division. Maybe for Giolito + Colome, but still....

Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

 

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

 

There might not be any, but if that's what the team needs, why commit so many resources to a guy who doesn't come close to fitting the bill? I don't want to trade for a starter just to get one.

 

I think much less of Boyd than others do, so I understand those others would go big for him. But I think this team can get another Pineda/Perez level starter much more cheaply than Boyd, and I really don't care about how much control a guy of his stature has left as I'd probably still be looking to upgrade from him sooner rather than later, and if for all intents and purposes he's done throwing off speed stuff, I'd be looking to move him to the pen as soon as this off season.

 

I'd like to look at Anthony DeScalfani. His velocity is increasing, he's got a good mix of pitches and he's got a year and a half of control left. Of non-elite pitchers, he'd be the kind of guy who'd interest me, and he's probably got much less helium. And if we're doing the starter/reliever combo, the Reds have four relievers I'd very much like to get my hands on.

[Mike Sixel]

There might not be any, but if that's what the team needs, why commit so many resources to a guy who doesn't come close to fitting the bill? I don't want to trade for a starter just to get one.

 

I think much less of Boyd than others do, so I understand those folks would go big for him. But I think this team can get another Pineda/Perez level starter much more cheaply than Boyd, and I really don't care about how much control a guy of his stature has left as I'd probably still be looking to upgrade from him sooner rather than later, and if for all intents and purposes he's done throwing off speed stuff, I'd be looking to move him to the pen as soon as this off season.

 

I'd like to look at Anthony DeScalfani. His velocity is increasing, he's got a good mix of pitches and he's got a year and a half of control left. Of non-elite pitchers, he'd be the kind of guy who'd interest me, and he's probably got much less helium.

Sure, but none of that was in his post, or how I responded. He would not trade Lewis for Giolito? He thinks they should only take a trade for an ace,I think that's his point.

 

I was pretty clear, I have no idea what Boyd is going ahead....

[Thrylos]

 

Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

 

Zach Wheeler.  Better K% and FIP, xFIP than Berrios even in a very dysfunctional environment.  Get him out of the Mets mess and you will see what he will do.   He is a rental and will not cost that much either.  That's the cheap way out

 

I'd really go after German Marquez and get the Rockies to add on Wade Davis (0.79 ERA away from Coors vs 9.20 there) and Brian Shaw (2.86 ERA away 5.76 ERA home).  Marquez is arbitration eligible first time next season, and the other 2 are under contract for 2020 + 1 option.  Davis is owed ~$25M total and Shaw ~$15M.  That will save the Rockies a ton of cash over the next few seasons, so might cost less than what one might think.  Regardless, I'd trade Lewis plus Kirilloff (*) for Marquez, if the Rockies are willing to eat some of the others' $.  The Twins need him more and he is just 24.

 

Really need to look for players who are seemingly underperforming in their current situations, but have a high likelihood of improvement if you get them out of there.

 

(*) I'd rather part with Kirilloff than Rooker btw.  Other than Rooker, the Twins do not have much RH power in the system, and with Kepler's extension, Larnach performing solidly and Blackenhorn's, Cabbage, and Diaz's break though years, there is plenty of LH power in the upper minors for the Twins.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Sure, but none of that was in his post, or how I responded. He would not trade Lewis for Giolito? He thinks they should only take a trade for an ace,I think that's his point.

I was pretty clear, I have no idea what Boyd is going ahead....

 

Lewis is one thing, Lewis + Rooker is another.  As I explained above, I would have a hard time trading Rooker because he is rarer in the organizatation.   My issue is trading within the division.  I would have to see these guys in a White Sox or Detroit uniform.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Why are the Rockies dealing a guy with that much control?

 

When was the last time a guy like that was dealt mid season?

[Mike Sixel]

Kevin
1:16 You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching?  Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?

Keith Law
1:16 I think it's fair.

[Thrylos]

 

Why are the Rockies dealing a guy with that much control?

When was the last time a guy like that was dealt mid season?

 

Gausman had one less year of control was he was dealt with O'Day from the Os to the Braves last season.

 

Roberto Osuma had exactly the same years of control when traded from Toronto to the Astros last season

 

Pham had exactly the same amount of control when he was dealt from St Louis to Tampa last season.

 

All were about to be pretty expensive in arbitration.

 

It happens

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gausman had one less year of control was he was dealt with O'Day from the Os to the Braves last season.

 

Pham had exactly the same amount of control when he was dealt from St Louis to Tampa last season.

 

All were about to be pretty expensive in arbitration.

 

It happens

 

gausman had been terrible, and was on a rebuilding team that needed to give up.

 

I'm assuming that the Rockies don't want to trade actual good players.

 

I have no idea why Pham was dealt, but he's not a pitcher.

[Major League Ready]

 

The big difference is half a year control versus three and a half. No one thinks Boyd has the cache of Verlander.

I mean, you'd control Boyd for almost as long as a rookie. If he's even a number three, that's a very valuable player.

 

Verlander was traded in 2017 and was under control through 2019 ( 2 1/2 years) In addidition, Detroit paid $8M/yr for 2018 and 2019. (see below).

 

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-trade-for-pitcher-justin-verlander-c251757752

[Mike Sixel]

 

Verlander was traded in 2017 and was under control through 2019 ( 2 1/2 years) In addidition, Detroit paid $8M/yr for 2018 and 2019. (see below).

 

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-trade-for-pitcher-justin-verlander-c251757752

 

well then I'm an idiot! thanks for the correction. sigh.

[Mike Sixel]

As for why there haven't been any trades much.....I have actually done the research on this one.

 

Since 2013, almost no big name players are traded in June....if they are, it is about salary dumps for the most part. In the first two weeks of July, there have been three large trades (though I need to double check that......) in the last few years. 

 

So, it is around 50-60% of the time that a big time player is traded in the first two weeks of July.

[Major League Ready]

 

well then I'm an idiot! thanks for the correction. sigh.

 

Easy mistake to make, Mike. Most of these deals are rentals. I sure wish there was a similar deal out there to be made but how many guys continue to be elite like Verlander at 36 years of age. Just another great decision by Houston.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You might be right but I would be on the phone hot and heavy to get into the Mets stable of arms. 

 

Syndergaard is who I would target. I would trade one of Lewis or Kiriloff + 1 other guy. Or, heck, give us Zack Wheeler also and you add another 2 good prospects. These are the types they should target. Power arms. Not this crafty lefty 90-91 mph stuff. Bring in one or both of those studs and lets roll. 

 

Not against going after Wheeler as a rental either. I like both of these guys WAY more than Bumgartner, the cat from Detroit, or the Toronto Blue Jay guy.

 

Boyd as outperformed Syndergaard by a considerable margin... and he pitches in the AL, not the NL... No way I give up Lewis for Syndergaard. 

 

I wouldn't argue against Wheeler, but he's an FA next season and doesn't really solve any problems for us long term.

[Mike Sixel]

hendu
2:18 What type of player does Zach Wheeler likely bring back?

 

Craig Edwards
2:20 A back-end top-100 guy or maybe a guy just outside of that plus another, lower prospect. Something like the Happ deal or a bit less than Darvish.

[USAFChief]

 

Easy mistake to make, Mike. Most of these deals are rentals. I sure wish there was a similar deal out there to be made but how many guys continue to be elite like Verlander at 36 years of age. Just another great decision by Houston.

heh.

 

From the "Go Get Verlander" thread, 2017:

 

Major League Ready, 21 Aug 2017:

 

Bingo.It's short-sighted.Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/27239-go-get-verlander/?hl=verlander

[Mike Sixel]

 

heh.

 

From the "Go Get Verlander" thread, 2017:

 

Major League Ready, 21 Aug 2017:

 

Bingo.It's short-sighted.Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/27239-go-get-verlander/?hl=verlander

 

As I've told MLR in private conversations, being wrong when you post here does not mean you are wrong next time. Like he said, it's kind of hard to predict a man that old will still be good.

 

But, as you and I agree, I'd take that chance a lot more than the Twins seem willing to do. Prospects are nice, flags are nicer.

[Mike Sixel]

Chris
2:30 The stroman to braves Twitter storm sure is fun!! What would it take for it to actually happen?

 

Craig Edwards
2:33 As for Stroman's trade value generally, he's the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isn't Syndergaard, but he's really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasn't started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows he's healthy.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-edwards-fangraphs-chat-7-11-2019/

[curt1965]

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins. 

 

Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect. 

 

Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.  

 

Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?

 

If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along

 

 

 

 

Hey Brian-

Everybody hope that Royce will be “that guy!” But no one needs to remind you that he is no guaranteed superstar. And being the #1 overall pick also has had some failures. Do these stars(?) from the last 10 years of Twins #1 picks become stars or front line players?

2008- Shooter Hunt

2009- Matthew Bashore

2010- Alex Wimmers

2011- Levi Michael

2011- Travis Harrison

2011- Hudson Boyd

2012- Luke Bard

2013- Kohl Stewart

2014- Nick Gordon

2015- Tyler Jay

2016-2019- TBD

 

Granted, Buxton and Berrios have been very good. But do you know these #1 overall picks since 2000?

 

2002- Bryan Buffington

2004- Matt Bush

2006- Luke Hochevar

2008- Tim Beckham

2013- Mark Appel

2014- Brady Aiken

 

Most of us think, hope, pray- that Royce will be a superstar. But I will submit, just by looking at past percentages of stars, this might be a reach!

[yarnivek1972]

As I've told MLR in private conversations, being wrong when you post here does not mean you are wrong next time. Like he said, it's kind of hard to predict a man that old will still be good.

 

But, as you and I agree, I'd take that chance a lot more than the Twins seem willing to do. Prospects are nice, flags are nicer.

It would be like expecting Jack Morris to rebound at age 36 after his two worst seasons.

 

Oh, wait.

[Riverbrian]

Hey Brian-

Everybody hope that Royce will be “that guy!” But no one needs to remind you that he is no guaranteed superstar. And being the #1 overall pick also has had some failures. Do these stars(?) from the last 10 years of Twins #1 picks become stars or front line players?

2008- Shooter Hunt

2009- Matthew Bashore

2010- Alex Wimmers

2011- Levi Michael

2011- Travis Harrison

2011- Hudson Boyd

2012- Luke Bard

2013- Kohl Stewart

2014- Nick Gordon

2015- Tyler Jay

2016-2019- TBD

 

Granted, Buxton and Berrios have been very good. But do you know these #1 overall picks since 2000?

 

2002- Bryan Buffington

2004- Matt Bush

2006- Luke Hochevar

2008- Tim Beckham

2013- Mark Appel

2014- Brady Aiken

 

Most of us think, hope, pray- that Royce will be a superstar. But I will submit, just by looking at past percentages of stars, this might be a reach!

Totally understand the frequency of the swing and miss with the MLB draft.

 

However, in this case. 1st pick overall, Age 20, Top Ten Prospect consensus today. His trade value better be in the upper levels of the stratosphere.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Totally understand the frequency of the swing and miss with the MLB draft.

However, in this case. 1st pick overall, Age 20, Top Ten Prospect consensus today. His trade value better be in the upper levels of the stratosphere.

 

He's not top ten by KLAW or Baseball Prospectus any more.....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Please don't put in links that are locked behind a paywall.

it’s worth every penny of that $5 per month.

 

Trueblood thinks Boyd has sustainability due to an overhaul of his slider, change and four seems to all tunnel together, as well as track record of health. He went so far as to compare Boyd to Sale. If you were a subscriber you might recall Trueblood also predicted Gibson breaking out, so.... TBD I guess.

[Diesel]

I'd rather have Stroman, Madbum, or Syndergaard/Wheeler. Royce Lewis seems like too much. Seems like a 2000s Twins pickup

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

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