What does Arizona take for Greinke?

[S.]

 

Unless Greinke comes in and gives you Gibson and Berrios type performance, it's not solving a problem for the Twins. Is that the kind of production we could anticipate from Greinke in 2019?

Greinke's career numbers are better than any single season that either Gibson or Berrios has had. And that isn't even cherry picking stats, he is better across the entire board for his career numbers than anything they've put up in a season. His 2018 numbers were significantly better than both as well. I'd say it's more likely that Gibson turns back into a pumpkin than it is that both Gibson and Berrios outperform Greinke in 2019.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think most teams view Greinke as a 3 year 25 million per season as solid. So Arizona would only need to kick in 20 million in a trade that should net decent talent back. We clearly have the prospects to make that work. I don't think Arizona would take Odorizzi and throw in 20 million. But maybe we could include him and get 15 million and include a few mlb ready prospects. Arizona could use the savings to resign Goldschmidt.
So I think Odorizzi, May (an inexpensive bullpen arm) and Mejia for Greinke and at least 15 million to as close to 20 million as possible could work for both sides.

As much as I would like Greinke, I don't think the Twins are up for that expense. And if payroll is at most 110 million then neither am I.

 

Greinke has 3 years remaining at 34.4. Therefore, if teams see him as being worth 25M/yr that would equate to 28.2M Arizona would need to kick-in to make his value equate. Of course, FAs don't require the trade of any prospects so I would hope we would not give up any prospects of any significance to trade for Greinke even with $28M coming back.. Spend the money on a free agent(s) that is not as likely to decline and not give up any prospects. Does not even need to be starting pitching. We have plenty of needs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Greinke's career numbers are better than any single season that either Gibson or Berrios has had. And that isn't even cherry picking stats, he is better across the entire board for his career numbers than anything they've put up in a season. His 2018 numbers were significantly better than both as well. I'd say it's more likely that Gibson turns back into a pumpkin than it is that both Gibson and Berrios outperform Greinke in 2019.

 Just as it's bad to quote the career numbers of a guy who's been in the league for parts of 3 seasons and still on the upside of his career, it's bad to quote them of a guy clearly on the downside of his. 

 

I agree, btw, that we should be in play here. I just think this is a dangerous way to look at it. You get Zach for 3 seasons on the downside of his career. The likelihood of him hitting his average for those years is pretty low. I think all of this factors in...

 

Bottom line, the more I look at it, he can be had cheaply. 

[Mike Sixel]

Greinke has 3 years remaining at 34.4. Therefore, if teams see him as being worth 25M/yr that would equate to 28.2M Arizona would need to kick-in to make his value equate. Of course, FAs don't require the trade of any prospects so I would hope we would not give up any prospects of any significance to trade for Greinke even with $28M coming back.. Spend the money on a free agent(s) that is not as likely to decline and not give up any prospects. Does not even need to be starting pitching. We have plenty of needs.

Which free agents are not likely to decline, that you'd sign for three or more years? That's got to be a very short, expensive, list.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can spend the money elsewhere in free agency. They can try to find a bargain in that middle tier player. The 35 million amounts to a little less than the Twins spent on Nolasco, Hughes and Santana in 2016. They could spend it that way. They did get three good years out of the 14 they committed.

 

I prefer Greinke. I would rather they enter the negotiations ready to take on the full deal. That is going to knock out some of the competition. The Twins have the budget flexibility. The Twins will not be pushing the luxury tax as some teams would in he next three years.

 

The negotiations should then turn to which prospect the Twins will get in return for taking on the full contract. At no point am I asking for the DBacks help with the contract. All that does is bring in other teams. Give me a prospect.If Grienke returns 50 cents on the dollar that is better than what the Twins got from Hughes, Nolasco and Santana.

 

The last time the Twins took a big risk on a 35 year old pitcher worked out OK.

[Don Walcott]

Out of curiosity, I just looked up the details on Greinke's contract. He will not be paid $35 million per year for the next three years. Rather, his base salary is about $32 million per year, as he received an $18 million signing bonus that is spread out over 6 years at $3 million per year.  Also, I'm not sure he even gets $32 million for each of the next three years, as $62.5 million of the contract is deferred to be paid over the years 2022-2026. I couldn't find any details on how that's allocated to his remaining three years, nor how much is paid yearly from 2022-2026. However, it certainly reduces the price tag on trading for him. 

[Brandon]

I had read he had 95.5 million left on his contract which is why i suggested 20 million earlier.

[Major League Ready]

 

Out of curiosity, I just looked up the details on Greinke's contract. He will not be paid $35 million per year for the next three years. Rather, his base salary is about $32 million per year, as he received an $18 million signing bonus that is spread out over 6 years at $3 million per year.  Also, I'm not sure he even gets $32 million for each of the next three years, as $62.5 million of the contract is deferred to be paid over the years 2022-2026. I couldn't find any details on how that's allocated to his remaining three years, nor how much is paid yearly from 2022-2026. However, it certainly reduces the price tag on trading for him. 

 

Greinke gets $24M/yr now ($21M salary + 3M/yr signing bonus) and $31.5M deferred. Plus, an additional $2M if he is traded for a total of 105.5. Of course, the present value is less. Probably around $100M. See link below

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/

[Tomj14]

The Yanks traded their top prospect for a 30 year old pitcher, idiots.

 

[Riverbrian]

The current parameters (set last off-season) seems to suggest that the value of older free agents is way way down from years past and the value of prospects with years of control is way way up from years past. 

 

I assume that every team calling Arizona to inquire about Greinke is starting the conversation this way:

 

Hello, If we work out a deal for Greinke, how much of that contract are you willing to eat? 

[S.]

 

 Just as it's bad to quote the career numbers of a guy who's been in the league for parts of 3 seasons and still on the upside of his career, it's bad to quote them of a guy clearly on the downside of his. 

 

I agree, btw, that we should be in play here. I just think this is a dangerous way to look at it. You get Zach for 3 seasons on the downside of his career. The likelihood of him hitting his average for those years is pretty low. I think all of this factors in...

 

Bottom line, the more I look at it, he can be had cheaply. 

I don't think there is any doubt that Greinke is going to be on the downside of his career, but I think there are plenty of reasons to question whether Gibson is going to be able to repeat his 2018 performance. And I also think it is highly likely that the downside of Greinke's career is still better than any of the current pitchers on our roster. Now, he may not hit his career averages, but based on the pitchers the Twins have trotted out the last decade, he could add on close to 1.00 ERA over his career averages, and he'd still be one of the best pitchers on the Twins. And I certainly don't think it is a safe assumption that he is going to become that much worse this year, or even in the next three years. He very well might, but even then he'd still be valuable to the Twins. And if the Twins are still on their "veteran clubhouse presence" kick, I'd sure as hell like that veteran to be someone like Greinke instead of someone like Beslisle. 

 

I won't argue that there aren't concerns with Greinke, but in terms of pitchers we could potentially acquire in FA or trades, I think he is a very worthwhile consideration. And as you said, he can likely be had for pretty cheap, especially when compared to other pitching options of his caliber. 

 

Edit: And to be fair, I did also mention that his 2018 numbers were a lot better than both Gibson and Berrios, if you're not too keen on looking at his career numbers. In 2018: Greinke - 135 ERA+, 3.70 FIP. Gibson - 121 ERA+, 4.13 FIP. Berrios - 114 ERA+, 4.22 FIP. Or any other stat you prefer, Greinke still outperformed both. And lets not forget that Gibson's 2017 and 2016 seasons he put up 5.07 ERA and 83/87 ERA+. While I certainly think (and hope) that Gibson can maintain the numbers he put up in 2018, we have to remember he is 31. He is not a some young prospect and I'm hesitant to just assume that 2018 is going to be Gibson's new normal. I hope it is, but we all should be no strangers to pitchers who have a solid season and then turn back into pumpkins (anyone remember Scott Diamond?)

[gunnarthor]

 

The Yanks traded their top prospect for a 30 year old pitcher, idiots.

Do you think the Twins should have traded Kiriloff (who was ranked around where Sheff was ranked) to Seattle instead?

[Tomj14]

 

Do you think the Twins should have traded Kiriloff (who was ranked around where Sheff was ranked) to Seattle instead?

that is what you got out of that? it was sarcasm that you don't trade prospects for older pitchers.

But since you ask, no I wouldn't trade Kiriloff for him, but I would think about trading any pitcher in the Twins minor leagues for him. Unless he gets hurt, you know what you are getting for the next two years, and nobody in the Twins system can that be said about.

[notoriousgod71]

If we are not going to go after someone like Greinke with his contract when is an acceptable time to do so? There's always some excuse. The prospects aren't ready. The prospects are about to get expensive. Mauer's contract is too big. He might get hurt. He might get less effective. This might hurt our flexibility in the future. He might not make a difference. He might not be better than what we already have. He us blocking prospects.

 

Just get trade for a legitimate player once and show you have an interest in winning, please. He isn't blocking anyone. Look at the starters we ran out there the past 15 years.

[Vanimal46]

If we are not going to go after someone like Greinke with his contract when is an acceptable time to do so? There's always some excuse. The prospects aren't ready. The prospects are about to get expensive. Mauer's contract is too big. He might get hurt. He might get less effective. This might hurt our flexibility in the future. He might not make a difference. He might not be better than what we already have. He us blocking prospects.

 

Just get trade for a legitimate player once and show you have an interest in winning, please. He isn't blocking anyone. Look at the starters we ran out there the past 15 years.

Concur. I would RELISH the opportunity to talk about a legitimate logjam somewhere on the field with the Twins. There has never been a logjam of too many good players at one particular position. Especially pitching.

[S.]

 

Concur. I would RELISH the opportunity to talk about a legitimate logjam somewhere on the field with the Twins. There has never been a logjam of too many good players at one particular position. Especially pitching.

You mean you don't love all of those logjams where a mediocre player is "blocking" some another mediocre player?

[Vanimal46]

You mean you don't love all of those logjams where a mediocre player is "blocking" some another mediocre player?

I'm having flashbacks of sleepless nights concerned that Tommy Milone was blocking Alex Meyer's MLB opportunity. That was a dicey logjam!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think there is any doubt that Greinke is going to be on the downside of his career, but I think there are plenty of reasons to question whether Gibson is going to be able to repeat his 2018 performance. And I also think it is highly likely that the downside of Greinke's career is still better than any of the current pitchers on our roster. Now, he may not hit his career averages, but based on the pitchers the Twins have trotted out the last decade, he could add on close to 1.00 ERA over his career averages, and he'd still be one of the best pitchers on the Twins. And I certainly don't think it is a safe assumption that he is going to become that much worse this year, or even in the next three years. He very well might, but even then he'd still be valuable to the Twins. And if the Twins are still on their "veteran clubhouse presence" kick, I'd sure as hell like that veteran to be someone like Greinke instead of someone like Beslisle. 

 

I won't argue that there aren't concerns with Greinke, but in terms of pitchers we could potentially acquire in FA or trades, I think he is a very worthwhile consideration. And as you said, he can likely be had for pretty cheap, especially when compared to other pitching options of his caliber. 

 

Edit: And to be fair, I did also mention that his 2018 numbers were a lot better than both Gibson and Berrios, if you're not too keen on looking at his career numbers. In 2018: Greinke - 135 ERA+, 3.70 FIP. Gibson - 121 ERA+, 4.13 FIP. Berrios - 114 ERA+, 4.22 FIP. Or any other stat you prefer, Greinke still outperformed both. And lets not forget that Gibson's 2017 and 2016 seasons he put up 5.07 ERA and 83/87 ERA+. While I certainly think (and hope) that Gibson can maintain the numbers he put up in 2018, we have to remember he is 31. He is not a some young prospect and I'm hesitant to just assume that 2018 is going to be Gibson's new normal. I hope it is, but we all should be no strangers to pitchers who have a solid season and then turn back into pumpkins (anyone remember Scott Diamond?)

 

I was responding more to using career numbers to project. It's not a good way to gage future production. Every player will play on some sort of arc. I see that a lot and it bothers me I suspect, however, that one of Gibson or Berrios outperforms him, especially if Zach ends up in the AL. That doesn't mean he won't be good. It just means that Greinke is on the wrong end of his arc where as Berrios is not (Gibson is a much bigger unknown). 

 

I started this thread, because I think Greinke would be an upgrade in MN, so I'm not against getting him. I think a move where AZ picks up Pineda or Odorizzi, prospect(s), and throws in some cash makes a ton of sense for both teams. We have a glut of AAA type pitching that will never get a reasonable chance and room in the budget to make it work.

[Nine of twelve]

Haven't read the thread, but I'll say this: Trading for Greinke would take us from not winning the World Series in 2018 to not winning the World Series in 2019. And what we would have to give to get is very, very unlikely to be worth the return and would probably decrease the chances of winning the World Series in 2020 and beyond. And if the trade does take place I would be happy to be proven wrong.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Haven't read the thread, but I'll say this: Trading for Greinke would take us from not winning the World Series in 2018 to not winning the World Series in 2019. And what we would have to give to get is very, very unlikely to be worth the return and would probably decrease the chances of winning the World Series in 2020 and beyond. And if the trade does take place I would be happy to be proven wrong.

 

That's a facetious argument though.  No one more is going to lead to us winning hte 2018 World Series.  It will take a series of moves to accomplish that.  Moves that acquire good players like Grienke.

[amjgt]

Greinke gets $24M/yr now ($21M salary + 3M/yr signing bonus) and $31.5M deferred. Plus, an additional $2M if he is traded for a total of 105.5. Of course, the present value is less. Probably around $100M. See link below

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/zack-greinke-407/

Not that it REALLY matters but that’s not what I got from sporttrac.

 

I read it as approximately 14.5M each of the next 3 years, followed by 5 years of deferred salaries at about 12.5M per year

[USAFChief]

That's a facetious argument though.  No one more is going to lead to us winning hte 2018 World Series.  It will take a series of moves to accomplish that.  Moves that acquire good players like Grienke.

Concur. It’s going to take some really, really fantastic moves to win the 2018 World Series.

[ashbury]

Concur. It’s going to take some really, really fantastic moves to win the 2018 World Series.

Baby steps. Let's aim for 2017 first.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not that it REALLY matters but that’s not what I got from sporttrac.

I read it as approximately 14.5M each of the next 3 years, followed by 5 years of deferred salaries at about 12.5M per year

 

Sorry. I should have included another link. You can't determine the annual contract without making assumptions to fill in the details Sportrac did not provide. I had to find articles that specifically addressed the deferred salary.    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/12/09/greinkes-d-backs-deal-includes-62-5m-in-deferred-salaries/77077480/   

 

They would have had to defer $119.5M to get to an annual payout of only 14.5M/yr.

[amjgt]

Spotrac, below the salary table, said that 62.5 was deferred.

 

With 105M total and 3 years left on the contract I backed into the 14.5m annual.

[USAFChief]

Sorry. I should have included another link. You can't determine the annual contract without making assumptions to fill in the details Sportrac did not provide. I had to find articles that specifically addressed the deferred salary. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/12/09/greinkes-d-backs-deal-includes-62-5m-in-deferred-salaries/77077480/

 

They would have had to defer $119.5M to get to an annual payout of only 14.5M/yr.

So a fair deal would be ... I don’t know, maybe the Twins pick up the salary and bonus, $24m per year, and AZ is responsible for all the rest?

 

I also see he’s got a 15 team no trade list, so maybe this is all impossible anyway, although one would think he wouldn’t use one of the 15 on the Twins.

 

BTW, good research finding the details.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Haven't read the thread, but I'll say this: Trading for Greinke would take us from not winning the World Series in 2018 to not winning the World Series in 2019. And what we would have to give to get is very, very unlikely to be worth the return and would probably decrease the chances of winning the World Series in 2020 and beyond. And if the trade does take place I would be happy to be proven wrong.

 

 

Doing nothing or adding mediocre players will not get us closer to winning any year either.

[Major League Ready]

 

So a fair deal would be ... I don’t know, maybe the Twins pick up the salary and bonus, $24m per year, and AZ is responsible for all the rest?

I also see he’s got a 15 team no trade list, so maybe this is all impossible anyway, although one would think he wouldn’t use one of the 15 on the Twins.

BTW, good research finding the details.

 

The dollars are probably right. However, if I were Arizona's GM/ownership I would not want that liability on the books in those years when the team is hopefully back in contention. You might see them just eat $10M/year now and get rid of that deferred comp. That could fit well with a team in a contending window right now without the payroll capacity to take on a player like Greinke under normal circumstances. That market will not be clear until the big $ FA signings are completed.

[Major League Ready]

 

Spotrac, below the salary table, said that 62.5 was deferred.

With 105M total and 3 years left on the contract I backed into the 14.5m annual.

 

Easy mistake to make. 62.5M is deferred, not remaining. 105M of the original 206.5M remains so it would make more sense that roughly half the deferral remains which is what the other article confirms.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Doing nothing or adding mediocre players will not get us closer to winning any year either.

I'm not saying we should do nothing ever. But I'm saying that getting Greinke now and giving up what it would take to get him would most likely be a net negative for the franchise. This team needs to have a better core of players on the major league roster before we start thinking about this type of trade.