What does Arizona take for Greinke?

[diehardtwinsfan]

OK, so we know that they have some salary issues. We know we have money to spend (and yes, I'm concerned that the FO may handcuff this team in some way)... but getting Zach shoudl be very doable if the Twins think he will age well over the next three seasons... so what would it take?

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Would AZ take something like Odorizzi and Gonsalves for Greinke straight up, or is that too high/too low a price to pay? Are we making a mistake by offering up Odorizzi instead of say Pineda or Mejia?

[Tomj14]

I don't think Odorizzi and Gonzo are too high of price at all, Would there be a huge up roar if those two were just cut from the Twins? Sure people would be upset of Gonzo but others don't think he will even be an average major league pitcher.

I think Arizona would want more, much more upside.

 

[Vanimal46]

Depends on how much salary the Twins take on. They wouldn't have to offer much if they take on Grienke's entire salary... i.e. the Yankees trade for Stanton last year.

 

Probably not realistic for our Twins though. The more money Arizona eats, the better the prospects the Twins have to give up.

[gunnarthor]

Grienke is paid 35m for the next three years. He'll be 35 next year. He was a 4 WAR pitcher last year and a 6 WAR pitcher the year before. And Houston, Angels and Yankees are all interested in him. So he'll be expensive.

 

Sounds like Arizona is willing to add some salary back in a trade (up to 15m/year) to increase his trade value so you're really getting Greinke at 20m/yr for three years. I'm not sure what Arizona is going to do but they are getting old at some positions and have some big players leaving through FA. They might decide to go the rebuild route and punt on next season, like every other team. 

 

I think the Dbacks would understand that Lewis and Kiriloff are off the table but Graterol  (#70 on pipeline), one of Gonsalves/Romero and a lottery ticket (Alcala?) might get their attention. But it really depends on the money they'll eat. The Yankees could easily match the Graterol offer and/or take on more money. I don't think there's anyway the Twins get involved in Greinke. 

[old nurse]

A trade would start with Graterol and another high ranking prospect. Those that you propose are Duensings.

[Major League Ready]

 

He was 3.5 WAR in his age 35 season. What are the odds he does not regress in each of the coming three seasons and what are the odds he produces 5  WAR over his age 37 & 38 seasons?  If Arizona eats $10M/year and If the players you trade for him never contribute in a meaningful way, it's a decent deal if he does not decline much.

 

It would make WAAAAAY more sense to offer Corbin such an obscene amount that even the Yankees would not match. At least we would not leverage our future for a pipe dream of putting together a contender this year.

[Rosterman]

You forget that it is Arizona shopping Greinke, an overpaid aging starter. A team needs to have payroll space. You have no idea how he will produce in 2020 let alone 2021.

 

Arizona would take salary themselves, and someone like Odorizzi would be a fine choice. Or would you ship Gibson and let Arizona worry about longterm negotiations. Either way, you are swapping the guy for one of our regulars.

 

The Twins could easily ship one of Stewart, Goncalves or Lettell.

 

In current A+ level and below the Twins could add a player or two. It could be done.

 

Depends on what the Twins want to get the salary down to.....$25 million a year for 3 years? What kind of player compensates for the extra $20 million or so.

[beckmt]

Other targets might make more sense, but if the Dbacks would take marginal prospects back and the Twins take the whole salary it might be doable, otherwise Orderizzi and a marginal prospect or two makes sense. Do not think Yankees would give as much value as that, at least without unloading Gray first(which Twins should also kick the tires on).

If Dbacks decide to go total rebuild Twins are probably out of the Greinke sweepstakes.

[amjgt]

I'd much rather use those resources (money) in other ways. I might be wrong, but the rotation is one area I would be fine with as is, going into next season. 

[Vanimal46]

He was 3.5 WAR in his age 35 season. What are the odds he does not regress in each of the coming three seasons and what are the odds he produces 5 WAR over his age 37 & 38 seasons? If Arizona eats $10M/year and If the players you trade for him never contribute in a meaningful way, it's a decent deal if he does not decline much.

 

It would make WAAAAAY more sense to offer Corbin such an obscene amount that even the Yankees would not match. At least we would not leverage our future for a pipe dream of putting together a contender this year.

Grienke has sustained excellence for a long time now... Corbin had great seasons in 2013 and 2018, with meh to bad seasons in between.

 

Obviously there's an age difference to consider, but I have more faith in Grienke's track record than Corbin right now.

 

Grienke's tendencies as a fly ball / strikeout pitcher plays into the Twins' strength of a great OF too. Just some things to think about other than Grienke's salary / potential decline.

[nicksaviking]

If AZ is trading him, then isn't a rebuild the indication? And if they're rebuilding, then they aren't going to need Greinke's salary to sign other free agents. So it would seem to me that it's most likely that AZ wants the best prospects in return, which means they'll eat the necessary salary to do so. 

 

I don't think this is going to be a straight salary dump situation.

[Major League Ready]

 

Grienke has sustained excellence for a long time now... Corbin had great seasons in 2013 and 2018, with meh to bad seasons in between.

Obviously there's an age difference to consider, but I have more faith in Grienke's track record than Corbin right now.

Grienke's tendencies as a fly ball / strikeout pitcher plays into the Twins' strength of a great OF too. Just some things to think about other than Grienke's salary / potential decline.

 

You tell me. What percentage of the time do SPs decline significantly during their age 36-38 season. I guess it's possible my perception that it is almost certain is flawed but most SPs don't even make it to their age 36 season because they have declined beyond the point of being viable. There were people that insisted we should sign Shields too. I know my perception is not off in that case because his numbers were among the very worst in the league. Sure, there have been a few exceptions but are you really asserting these are not relatively rare exceptions and the norm is not significant decline?

 

Arizona's goal no doubt will be to get a high ceiling player(s) that will contribute significantly to the building a contender. Signing a SP that is most likely to decline is not a good strategy for building a sustainable contender that's why they would trade him. It's a strategy to be better next year with the likely outcome it makes you worse in the future.

[Vanimal46]

You tell me. What percentage of the time do SPs decline significantly during their age 36-38 season. I guess it's possible my perception that it is almost certain is flawed but most SPs don't even make it to their age 36 season because they have declined beyond the point of being viable. There were people that insisted we should sign Shields too. I know my perception is not off in that case because his numbers were among the very worst in the league. Sure, there have been a few exceptions but are you really asserting these are not relatively rare exceptions and the norm is not significant decline?

 

Arizona's goal no doubt will be to get a high ceiling player(s) that will contribute significantly to the building a contender. Signing a SP that is most likely to decline is not a good strategy for building a sustainable contender that's why they would trade him. It's a strategy to be better next year with the likely outcome it makes you worse in the future.

I don't know what I'm eating for lunch yet, so I can't predict the future of Grienke tomorrow or 3 years from now. All I said is Grienke has a sustained track record of excellence compared to Corbin.

 

There is no doubt Arizona's goal and every other team's goal to find players who are significant contributors to building a contending team. Doesn't mean they'll get that in this trade. What are the odds that young prospects flourish into significant contributors? We see top 100 prospects flame out every year.

[cmoss84]

Arizona is in a really interesting situation. Do they go all in or completely start over? Do they trade Goldschmidt/Greinke/Ray? Resign Corbin?

 

If they tear it down, things are going to get very interesting. I like the Greinke idea...if they are willing to take B and C list prospects (10-20 range maybe?).

[Kelly Vance]

Sano for Greinke straight up?

[Thrylos]

 

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Greinke is not the answer.  Here is a fact:  Other than the 2004 Boston Red Sox, no team won the World Series without a LHSP.  So the Twins need to focus on a lefty (and Mejia is not the answer).  On the other hand, even If their intend is not winning the WS, then they should stay away from Greinke, since he will not add anything to the team.

 

Greinke's FB velo dropped to 89.6 mph down from a career high of 94 mph.  Slider down to 83.4 mph, down from 87.  His change was at 86.6.  That's only 3 mph differnce from his "fastball".  Give him more years and he will get pelted.  He is not a very good pitcher right now, esp. if he moves to the AL.  As a matter of fact, I suspect that Gibson will be better than Greinke in 2019 in the same league.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

OK, so we know that they have some salary issues. We know we have money to spend (and yes, I'm concerned that the FO may handcuff this team in some way)... but getting Zach shoudl be very doable if the Twins think he will age well over the next three seasons... so what would it take?

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Would AZ take something like Odorizzi and Gonsalves for Greinke straight up, or is that too high/too low a price to pay? Are we making a mistake by offering up Odorizzi instead of say Pineda or Mejia?

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 

[Tomj14]

It is always the same, a top end rotation guy becomes available. and Twins fans say can make every excuse for going and getting him.

Go and get then botn Corbin and Greinke.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 

 

I don't know... hence the question... Kind of wanted to get an idea what people thought would be fair. Usually, if both sides don't like it, it's probably fair. 

[TheLeviathan]

Arizona is rebuilding.  And down here, in AZ, they are talking about having to attach Grienke to a Goldschmidt deal just so someone will take him.

 

It won't cost Graterol.  Gonsalves could headline a package and still have the D-backs kick in cash.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 

 

Quite possibly yes.  Might have to throw in a prospect in our 15-20 range, but yes.

[bird]

 

I don't know... hence the question... Kind of wanted to get an idea what people thought would be fair. Usually, if both sides don't like it, it's probably fair. 

 

My guess is that both sides would not like this trade because it fails to solve a problem for either.

 

If I'm instructing my professional scouting staff to bring me ideas based on discussions with a team, I'm telling them to forget any ideas from their system that do not include prospects that project as future front rotation mainstays. That's my threshhold. I know I'm going to eat salary in order to get an offer that gets me this. And it may be a Balazovic or the like, someone my scouts love who is hidden in the low minors.

 

Unless Greinke comes in and gives you Gibson and Berrios type performance, it's not solving a problem for the Twins. Is that the kind of production we could anticipate from Greinke in 2019?

[Don Walcott]

Greinke is a very good experienced pitcher, who has adapted to losing some velocity. He's also an excellent all around athlete, who you can count on to keep himself in good shape to perform.  He's also a fierce competitor. I'd bet on him doing very well through the remainder of his contract, and I'd be happy to have him pitch for us. I expect the price will be right as well.

 

Now about this Goldschmidt fella . . . .

[Tomj14]

 

 

Unless Greinke comes in and gives you Gibson and Berrios type performance, it's not solving a problem for the Twins. Is that the kind of production we could anticipate from Greinke in 2019?

Why would you expect him to get worse and pitch like them two? (not that they were bad, but they weren't as good as him)

[Riverbrian]

The very nature of free agency is to pay more than the other teams are willing to pay to acquire the baseball player. 

 

Once this process takes place. The Players already costs in salary more than the other teams are willing to pay. 

 

If Arizona is truly thinking about a rebuild. They want the money back so they have the financial flexibility to add different pieces in the future. 

 

Sure they would like a team to give them Royce Lewis in exchange plus take on the financial responsibility for that contract in addition but that isn't going to happen. 

 

What would take to get Greinke? Take the contract and throw in a 40th round draft pick to get the deal done. Now the Twins have the contract that is already higher than any other team was willing to pay for a pitcher that is much older than when the contract was originally signed. The Twins are not going to do that. 

 

So... The Twins are going to talk to Arizona about taking on some of that financial responsibility.

 

That's when I can't answer the question anymore because the answer will be dependent on the dollar value of Royce Lewis and the Dollar Value of Lewis Thorpe and the Dollar Value of Jake Odorizzi and the Dollar Value of Travis Blankenhorn for examples. 

 

If the Twins threw in Blankenhorn for example... how much would Arizona eat in Greinke salary for Blankenhorn? If the Twins threw in Lewis Thorpe how much now? If the Twins threw in Odrizzi with his one year contract and factor in the value of that one year before FA... How much value is that worth to Arizona will become a number that they will contribute to the Twins to pay off the rest of Greinke's contract. 

 

And of course... this same game is going to played with the Yankees and Astros or any team that is looking for a sensible solution to upgrading the rotation. 

 

And then you factor in James Paxton being available with a much better contract and Kluber possibly being available and DeGrom or whoever, plus the FA's and now supply and demand works against Arizona. You can couple that with the fact that he is already making more than anybody was comfortable paying and then you start reaching the point where the return is so low that Arizona doesn't trade him because the numbers he might produce might be more than the return. 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't know what I'm eating for lunch yet, so I can't predict the future of Grienke tomorrow or 3 years from now. All I said is Grienke has a sustained track record of excellence compared to Corbin.

There is no doubt Arizona's goal and every other team's goal to find players who are significant contributors to building a contending team. Doesn't mean they'll get that in this trade. What are the odds that young prospects flourish into significant contributors? We see top 100 prospects flame out every year.

 

I did not ask you to predict the future. I was quite specific in asking what are the odds. We have reams of historical data. You are a serious fan that knows quite well what the odds are so it's not a fair response IMO when you say you can't predict the future.

 

You do have a point that Corbin does not have a track record that gives great confidence. Perhaps another player is a better alternative but none of this changes the inevitable ... Greinke is already well past the normal prime years and the odds of elite performance at ages 36-38 are very low.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

 

Exactly right.  He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.  I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.  (Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.  Their catching was ridiculously awful)

[Major League Ready]

From previous scouring of financial data I estimated the Twins had about $115M in operating expenses and players outside the 25 man.  I would be shocked if we see $130M payroll again this year because I am assuming they still goof previous years revenue.

 

I would guess the payroll is going to be $100-$110M. In other words the budget for FAs is going to be $25-$35M. I don’t think spending the bulk of the budget on Greinke is the best use of that budget. I would rather see the plethora of SP prospects we have auditioned in the stacker role and spend the money on BP, MI, and 1B ion that order. We can day dream about a world where where ownership has no interest in profit and we have a $150M payroll but there will be little validity in any scenario cast from such a dream.

[Major League Ready]

 

Exactly right.  He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.  I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.  (Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.  Their catching was ridiculously awful)

If that's the case, I withdraw my objection but I still think it's good for next year, and probably not so good past next year.

[RedBull34]

I think the starting point would simply have to be the Verlander trade from 2017.  Tigers got the Stro's # 3, 9, and 11 prospects.

 

Now, consider that Grienke isn't as good as Verlander.  And Grienke is more expensive then Verlander, and...

 

Yea, I don't think he's going to cost very much to acquire.

 

I don't know if they would want Odo, and they might not like Gonsalves, but I think it's pretty much about the right price.  Two 10-20 prospect in an average farm system would be more then enough if the D'Backs send little to no cash.

 

Edited: I thought Verlander was younger then he is.  Still, I don't think it's going to cost that much.