Dozier v Forsythe

[ashbury]

In my cartoon example a page ago.

Then quit messing around with positional flexibility and just get Bugs Bunny to pitch.

 

_{^{/ oh wait, in that cartoon he was the ultimate in positional flexibiity.}}

[clone52]

 

There are other ways of adding flexibility, or preparing for various possibilities, than adding Forsythe. How about Escobar? Jed Lowrie? I'm not seeing a financial reason why we'd have to go cheap with this spot either.

 

The one reason you might go cheap is if you think Gordon is close, but not quite there.  Do you want a more expensive guy blocking Gordon?

[Riverbrian]

Ostensibly, the position flexibility angle makes it easier to upgrade from Ryan LaMarre. Potentially you don't need a LaMarre OR a weak hitting utility infielder. Get the best bench bat you can regardless of position. Rosario then is your utility infielder. Roster spot saved. Money saved. Bench improved. Sunday matinee lineups worth watching.

 

It's a bit of a catch 22. You need good enough players to make reworking lineups worth it, but position flexibility makes it easier to roster more good players. For instance, Ohtani has 1.2 bWAR in only 9 starts as a pitcher. He has 1.4 bWAR in only 234 PA. Impressive enough without extrapolation for health. BUT you also have to add in the value of the roster spot you're saving by having half of your DH duties covered. It's like constantly having a 26th spot for a fresh reliever, a defense only sub, a 3rd catcher for some reason if you're Gardy...

Perfect!

[Riverbrian]

I understand the flexibility concept. I also understand how hard it is to explain it using specific players without getting it picked apart. LaMarre being Exhibit One. The secret is having better ball players. But you can't have, as an example two Doziers on the same roster. Only one can play second, the other would have to sit. To me flexibility would be a second catcher who can PH and fill in at 1B. A MI who can legitimately play the OF. This doesn't mean that every game I am running guys all over the field, it means I can expand my pinch hitting options, and that I can keep a roster happier with equitable playing time. It also means that when someone needs a day off or is dinged up, you have an option better than LaMarre or Grossman to fill in. Filling the 25th spot with a "Right Handed OF with Some Power" doesn't leave you much room to maneuver.

Perfect!

[Number3]

It figures. The current Twin with the highest batting average, no one wants to keep. That is the state of the Twins in a nutshell. Same bunch with a pipe dream of signing Daniel Murphy at age 33 says Forsythe at age 32 is too old. Twins shuffle the deck more often than a Vegas black jack dealer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It figures. The current Twin with the highest batting average, no one wants to keep. That is the state of the Twins in a nutshell. Same bunch with a pipe dream of signing Daniel Murphy at age 33 says Forsythe at age 32 is too old. Twins shuffle the deck more often than a Vegas black jack dealer.

 

he'll be in MN for all of 2 months....I'm not sure how replacing him is shuffling the deck. 

 

If there is a better player available, they should acquire said player IMO.

[SwainZag]

 

he'll be in MN for all of 2 months....I'm not sure how replacing him is shuffling the deck. 

 

If there is a better player available, they should acquire said player IMO.

 

I think the difference is the thinking that they could get Forsythe to sign a 1 year extension, compared to signing an older player to a multi year deal.  IF a 1 year deal was put on the table for Forsythe, personally I wouldn't see that as a bad signing.  I would rather have 1 year of him, over 3 years of Murphy in that example.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the difference is the thinking that they could get Forsythe to sign a 1 year extension, compared to signing an older player to a multi year deal. IF a 1 year deal was put on the table for Forsythe, personally I wouldn't see that as a bad signing. I would rather have 1 year of him, over 3 years of Murphy in that example.

I think I would need to know the terms and what other moves we make to fully judge it, but I think I would rather have Murphy even at 3 years. Even if you don't want to "block" Gordon at 2B, Murphy is a vastly better hitter than Forsythe, enough that his bat would fit at 1B or DH too. And the Twins probably have enough resources to do it. Unless they somehow sign Machado, Harper, and Kershaw.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hoping they stop going for mediocre players, and go big on at least one player this year....they have the money. Plenty of money.

[70charger]

 

It figures. The current Twin with the highest batting average, no one wants to keep. That is the state of the Twins in a nutshell. Same bunch with a pipe dream of signing Daniel Murphy at age 33 says Forsythe at age 32 is too old. Twins shuffle the deck more often than a Vegas black jack dealer.

 

First of all, batting average? That's all you got? And for 13 games with the Twins? Yep, 13.

 

Second of all, his season batting average is .241, to go along with a whopping 70 OPS+, which follows up his incredibly impressive 82 from last year. Whee.

 

And speaking of second base, the Twins have had the exact same second baseman for 5+ years. That's shuffling the deck like a blackjack dealer to you?

 

There's just so much wrong with this post. Forsythe isn't coming back, notwithstanding his batting average for two weeks. This is not a good argument, just skewed extrapolation from miniscule sample size.

[DocBauer]

WAY too many posts to copy and post, but if like to echo Brian's thoughts about depth and versatility out of your player roster.

 

Escobar would be my #1 FA signing for 2B. But can also play daily at SS and 3B, even DH occasionally, if someone else takes 2B and runs with it.

 

That being said, they absolutely need to sign or trade for a second INF. Now, is that Forsythe or a similar player? Someone for depth and competition for sure. Or do they concentrate on more of a standard utility type? But they can't just have Adrianza.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

WAY too many posts to copy and post, but if like to echo Brian's thoughts about depth and versatility out of your player roster.

 

Escobar would be my #1 FA signing for 2B. But can also play daily at SS and 3B, even DH occasionally, if someone else takes 2B and runs with it.

 

That being said, they absolutely need to sign or trade for a second INF. Now, is that Forsythe or a similar player? Someone for depth and competition for sure. Or do they concentrate on more of a standard utility type? But they can't just have Adrianza.

agreed, I would be shopping for 1b as well. I think Austin should replace Grossman in 19 as the 4th OF. I think Gordon will be the addition to Adrianza at some point, maybe not until mid season though.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm hoping they stop going for mediocre players, and go big on at least one player this year....they have the money. Plenty of money.

 

Who are your top 3, Mike? 

 

I would like ... 

 

1) Escobar

2) Iglesias if we can't get Escobar and move Polanco to 2nd. He is not a great player but he is not mediocre either and a good bridge to Lewis.

3) Closer - Not sure right now who that should be.

 

Obviously 1B has to be addressed but a trade might be a better option than free agency. Of course, Machado would be first choice like everyone else, it's just a long shot.  (very long)

[purppride1]

Updated: 

 

We all know the BABIP is still bizarre, but I like the second view below. Look at the distribution across the field. You can't shift this guy...he uses the whole field.  Also surprised he has a lower soft contact rate than Doz. 

 

Still a small sample size, but double the sample from when I started the post and Forsythe's numbers are actually better now. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who are your top 3, Mike? 

 

I would like ... 

 

1) Escobar

2) Iglesias if we can't get Escobar and move Polanco to 2nd. He is not a great player but he is not mediocre either and a good bridge to Lewis.

3) Closer - Not sure right now who that should be.

 

Obviously 1B has to be addressed but a trade might be a better option than free agency. Of course, Machado would be first choice like everyone else, it's just a long shot.  (very long)

 

In FA? 

 

I don't know. I'd have to look at the list again. 

Escobar is a nice player, but I'm not sure he's "big time" enough for this threshold. (huh, there is only 1 H in the middle of that word....)

 

But I really want a trade for a legit SP or big time OF, I just don't see them doing OF

[Major League Ready]

 

In FA? 

 

I don't know. I'd have to look at the list again. 

Escobar is a nice player, but I'm not sure he's "big time" enough for this threshold. (huh, there is only 1 H in the middle of that word....)

 

But I really want a trade for a legit SP or big time OF, I just don't see them doing OF

 

As I look down the list of top SPs, the only one that is not on a contender is DeGrom and he only has 2 years of control. Nice move if you are looking for a final piece but this team has many positions to solidify before we look for a final piece. Any other SP candidates with more years of control I am over looking. Would Tampa trade Blake Snell?

 

I take it you are trading Lewis or Kiriloff because that's the only way you get a "big time" player. I would much rather sign Escobar or Iglesias and keep Kiriloff/Lewis.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As I look down the list of top SPs, the only one that is not on a contender is DeGrom and he only has 2 years of control. Nice move if you are looking for a final piece but this team has many positions to solidify before we look for a final piece. Any other SP candidates with more years of control I am over looking.  Would Tampa trade Blake Snell?

 

I take it you are trading Lewis or Kiriloff because that's the only way you get a "big time" player. I would much rather sign Escobar or Iglesias and keep Kiriloff/Lewis.

 

Hard to say, I didn't get enough comments on my rather long pieces on what I'd do for me to take the time right now to look at teams and names......and I am only partially interested in doing the work right now. Maybe that changes in a month or so....launching a website/business is distracting me from fun.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm hoping they stop going for mediocre players, and go big on at least one player this year....they have the money. Plenty of money.

 

Agreed.  But it should be a pitcher (or 3).  If they don't get an ace and fix that bullpen, there is no way to catch the Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros, just with one big bat.  And as far as bats go, I am fine with signing Escobar as an insurance policy to youth in IF, and get a power bat  regardless of position (IF, OF, or 1B.) 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agreed.  But it should be a pitcher (or 3).  If they don't get an ace and fix that bullpen, there is no way to catch the Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros, just with one big bat.  And as far as bats go, I am fine with signing Escobar as an insurance policy to youth in IF, and get a power bat  regardless of position (IF, OF, or 1B.) 

 

Pretty much my position, I just don't know the SP.....

[Thrylos]

 

Pretty much my position, I just don't know the SP.....

 

Probably wearing a Mets' uniform right now...

[purppride1]

I know there are other threads going on this now, but promised I'd make periodic updates here:

 

BABIP has come down some and he clearly doesn't have Dozier's power, but I'm still liking what I am seeing from Forsythe. Seems solid defensively with a good arm too. (great relay to 3rd yesterday)

 

Again, seems like a solid 2-hole put the ball in play, move runners over, do the little things kinda guy. Having Doz at the top with his power was always fun, but he had so many solo homers because of it. I continue to say I'm okay with Forsythe as a stop gap next year until one of the kids can force their way up.  

[jkcarew]

To me, the moral of the above story is the affirmation that Forsythe's BABiP needs to maintain at about 400 to be on a par with what could be considered 'normal' (not hot) Dozier production.

 

And Forsythe's BABiP will not come even close to doing that (it's 301 over his career).

 

I'll take the position that there continues to be no hurry to offer/sign Forsythe.  The Twins should be able to do better in the off-season.

[TheLeviathan]

The other thing I think we can conclude is that Dozier's magical hot streak was probably not going to happen.  This might be who he is now.  (Which aligns with his age and positional group - this was predictable)

[Otto von Ballpark]

BABIP has come down some and he clearly doesn't have Dozier's power, but I'm still liking what I am seeing from Forsythe.

What you are seeing would be a ~.572 OPS if Forsythe had his career average BABIP. That would represent by far the worst 2B production among MLB teams this season. You could give him back his Dodgers isolated power too, and that would still only rank about 28th among MLB teams in 2B OPS.

 

His expected wOBA has dropped too, down to .284 with the Twins compared to 2018 MLB average of .327 and Forsythe's own career mark of .326, so he's not even unlucky by Statcast (exit velocity / launch angle).

 

If you are not seeing power, or xwOBA, I am not sure how you can possibly like what you are seeing from Forsythe at the plate, in the context of bringing him back for 2019. Obviously Twins fans can like the results in the present -- a hit is a hit, a win is a win -- but it seems like a pretty bad bet for the future, no?

[purppride1]

Latest updates:

 

Forsythe coming back to earth but still holding his own. Dozier's just not doing that great in LA. 

 

The problem with Doz is you were always waiting for the hot streak. If it came, awesome. If not, he was very mortal. The older he gets, the less likely those hot streaks are. Still feeling okay with this...

 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

It’ll be interesting to see what he gets in free agency. I have no idea but this year could be costly.

 

Another interesting angle is this. The Dodgers will play him less if he doesn’t turn it around. The Dodgers have Taylor, Hernandez, Muncy and Utley as alternative 2B options and Roberts has demonstrated time and time again that he will slow playing time down regardless of past performance.