Dozier v Forsythe

[purppride1]

Never thought this would be necessary, but I'm going to post periodic updates comparing the two the rest of the year. Forsythe doesn't have Dozier's power, but he hasn't exactly been a waste of a roster spot since he got here, which I think most of us expected from him.  
 
If Forsythe can even remotely maintain this level of production (obviously the .484 BABIP won't last), I think 1.) Twins have to try to shop him before the deadline, just in case someone throws something our way and 2.) if he sticks around, they have to consider bringing him back next year on a team friendly deal to bridge the gap until Gordon figures things out and shows he is ready for The Show.
 
Am I crazy here?

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

 
Am I crazy here?

 

 

Yep, but i look forward to your updates

 

[jkcarew]

Interesting...thanks for sharing.  It's not much of an exaggeration to say both are twice the players they were prior to the trade.

 

Yes, you try (emphasis on 'try') to shop Forsythe.  You never know, I guess.

 

For next year, I'd rather have Escobar.  But I guess the Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with Forsythe for a few months...and he might be in the signing mood.  I'm not against an 'insurance' second baseman...and Forsythe is pretty flexible, as well...can play 3rd if/when needed.  And at 31, Forsythe probably has at least one more decent (relative to his standards) offensive season in him.  But, I'm not sure there's reason to pull the trigger on anything until FA hits.

[purppride1]

Like I said, first preference would be that he stays hot enough that we can find a taker late in August when his remaining salary is even lower for another upside chip.

 

That said, while he'll never be face-of-the team material, and it's admittedly a small sample size so far, I've seen weirder stuff. He was a solid player in Tampa, maybe LA just wasn't a good fit for the guy... (a la Lynn here)

 

Fully expect him to fade... but fun to watch for now...

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you want an easy way to compare, you can create a custom player list for the leaderboards at Fangraphs.

 

Here's a link for Dozier and Forsythe just since August 1st that will automatically update every day through the end of the season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-08-01&endDate=2018-11-01&filter=&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=false&players=9810,7185&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1

 

If you are concerned about Forsythe's BABIP, you can also compare their expected wOBA by Statcast data. Here's a link for that:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2018-08-01&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

League average xwOBA right now for 2018 is .327. Since the start of Statcast in 2015, Forsythe is at .328 and Dozier is at .319:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Forsythe can even remotely maintain this level of production (obviously the .484 BABIP won't last)

This is the problem, I think. It's pretty much all BABIP at this point. Forsythe's isolated power (ISO, SLG minus AVG) since the trade is actually lower than what he posted in LA -- which was already his lowest mark since his rookie year 7 years ago (in Petco Park, no less).

 

I think he needs to demonstrate some kind of power to generate any kind of real interest for September or for 2019. A barrage of singles isn't going to attract any buyers.

[Riverbrian]

If... the Twins would consider using him as a 3B on occasion. I'll support signing him for the position flexibility. Forsythe could play the occasion 3B which would allow Sano to play the occasional 1B and allow someone like Gordon the opportunity to find a landing spot should he start turning it on. 

 

However... If he is seen as a 2B only by the Twins organization. I have no interest whatsoever. In that scenario, I have no trust in the organization to move Forsythe in case Gordon starts turning it on and Gordon will end up waiting for an injury. 

 

Escobar and Nunez are a couple of guys that I would welcome back to the Twins first and foremost on FA Deals because they can play multiple positions and allow the Twins to really optimize the roster and fill whatever holes spring up. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If... the Twins would consider using him as a 3B on occasion. I'll support signing him for the position flexibility. Forsythe could play the occasion 3B which would allow Sano to play the occasional 1B and allow someone like Gordon the opportunity to find a landing spot should he start turning it on. 

Meh. I'm not going to move Sano off 3B just because I can play Logan Forsythe there.

 

And I'm not going to start my utility guy more than necessary just so I can keep Logan Forsythe "fresh" at 3B for that possibility.

 

I'd rather aim for a better 2B, or a better 3B, or a better 1B. This team needs better players with more upside than Forsythe.

[Riverbrian]

 

Meh. I'm not going to move Sano off 3B just because I can play Logan Forsythe there.

 

And I'm not going to start my utility guy more than necessary just so I can keep Logan Forsythe "fresh" at 3B for that possibility.

 

I'd rather aim for a better 2B, or a better 3B, or a better 1B. This team needs better players with more upside than Forsythe.

 

You run your team your way and I'll run my team my way. 

 

I'm gonna beat you though by being better prepared for every eventuality. 

 

I'm preparing for the possibility that Gordon becomes ready. 

I'm preparing for the possibility that Austin hits like Morrison.

I'm preparing for Sano needing another trip to Ft. Myers 

and I'm preparing for the possibility that Forsythe bites as well after he is signed.  

 

You'll add Machado and Dozier to Sano playing 1B and you are the 2019 version of the Orioles praying that Machado stays healthy and Sano doesn't look like Chris Davis. 

 

I'll be covered. 

 

We got a semi-core in place... I'm supporting that core with flexibility. I'll be installing the safety nets. 

[nicksaviking]

If he keeps hitting I'd consider him for next year, but not until I explored other options. I wouldn't worry about the Twins exclusive negotiating window. Even if he stays hot no one is going to forget his disasterous previous year-and-a-half. He's most likely looking at a contract more similar to Neil Walker's MiLB deal with the Yankees than what Eduardo Escobar will get next year.

 

He'll probably still be waiting for a phone call come January, if options A, B and C are gone, sure, go get him for a song. Or still go get him for a song even if the team does snag option A, B or C.

[Shaitan]

 

Escobar and Nunez are a couple of guys that I would welcome back to the Twins first and foremost on FA Deals because they can play multiple positions and allow the Twins to really optimize the roster and fill whatever holes spring up. 

 

Nunez is fun to watch on offense, but I don't want his defense anywhere except 3b (and that's going off memory). If Adrianza is the primary backup SS/2B, and Nunez is backup 3B and alternate backup 2B/SS (and 6th OF), I'll take it.

[stringer bell]

I mentioned the possibility of keeping Forsythe on another thread. I agree with RB in that one of the factors would have to be his ability to play third. Forsythe has had a nice start to his Twins career, but it’s a small sample.

 

Having a RH hitter who is a veteran and somewhat of a known quantity would be good for 2019, especially with a team that has question marks at second and third next year.

[Riverbrian]

 

Nunez is fun to watch on offense, but I don't want his defense anywhere except 3b (and that's going off memory). If Adrianza is the primary backup SS/2B, and Nunez is backup 3B and alternate backup 2B/SS (and 6th OF), I'll take it.

 

I'm not afraid of his defense. Seen enough of it to think of it as adequate at multiple positions. 

 

Adrianaza I was willing to give a look see this year... but Molitor is going to slow that down to play Forsythe every day. 

 

And... Adrianaza is deep in my dog house for falling asleep at 3B yesterday. If you are fighting for a roster spot and playing time... you best stay awake. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We got a semi-core in place... I'm supporting that core with flexibility. I'll be installing the safety nets. 

There are other ways of adding flexibility, or preparing for various possibilities, than adding Forsythe. How about Escobar? Jed Lowrie? I'm not seeing a financial reason why we'd have to go cheap with this spot either.

[purppride1]

 

If you want an easy way to compare, you can create a custom player list for the leaderboards at Fangraphs.

 

Here's a link for Dozier and Forsythe just since August 1st that will automatically update every day through the end of the season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-08-01&endDate=2018-11-01&filter=&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=false&players=9810,7185&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1

 

If you are concerned about Forsythe's BABIP, you can also compare their expected wOBA by Statcast data. Here's a link for that:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2018-08-01&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

League average xwOBA right now for 2018 is .327. Since the start of Statcast in 2015, Forsythe is at .328 and Dozier is at .319:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

Thanks! Knew there was a better way to do it, but just did something quick and dirty on my lunch break...

[USAFChief]

 

If... the Twins would consider using him as a 3B on occasion. I'll support signing him for the position flexibility. Forsythe could play the occasion 3B which would allow Sano to play the occasional 1B and allow someone like Gordon the opportunity to find a landing spot should he start turning it on. 

 

However... If he is seen as a 2B only by the Twins organization. I have no interest whatsoever. In that scenario, I have no trust in the organization to move Forsythe in case Gordon starts turning it on and Gordon will end up waiting for an injury. 

 

Escobar and Nunez are a couple of guys that I would welcome back to the Twins first and foremost on FA Deals because they can play multiple positions and allow the Twins to really optimize the roster and fill whatever holes spring up. 

Sounds like the role Adrianza currently fills. I guess there's the possibility Forsythe fills it better, but IMO neither one moves the needle much.

[TheLeviathan]

I would guess anything with Forsythe next year depends on the readiness of Gordon.  And he's so up and down it's hard to know what to think on him.  But he should be up next year at some point I'd imagine.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see a scneario where Forsythe is on this team next year, unless they are really punting on 2019. The Dodgers got rid of him for a reason, and he's been aroudn the league long enough that I don't think "change of scenery" is going to make him worth keeping. 

 

As others said, unless the power returns, he is what he is... and we don't need that. I'd rather get Escobar back. 

[Riverbrian]

There are other ways of adding flexibility, or preparing for various possibilities, than adding Forsythe. How about Escobar? Jed Lowrie? I'm not seeing a financial reason why we'd have to go cheap with this spot either.

Agreed

 

And I’m only down to Forsythe if we lose out on Murphy, Escobar, Lowrie, Nunez and others, which is possible.

[ChrisKnutson]

No way should we bring back Forsythe, if anything, he’s a trade candidate as of right now.

 

Besides, I’d rather bring a good veteran leader like Josh Harrison to “bridge the gap” along with being a much needed mentor for Buxton and Gordon (yes, I brought race into this).

[Riverbrian]

Sounds like the role Adrianza currently fills. I guess there's the possibility Forsythe fills it better, but IMO neither one moves the needle much.

Similar but my version is more enhanced.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agreed

And I’m only down to Forsythe if we lose out on Murphy, Escobar, Lowrie, Nunez and others, which is possible.

I'd exclude Nunez -- but if we lose out on all of those guys and others, I'm not sure it particularly matters whether we get Forsythe. That would probably be a sign of a bad offseason for the FO. Forsythe seems like he will be fairly interchangeable with a few other suspect infielders.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Like I said, first preference would be that he stays hot enough that we can find a taker late in August when his remaining salary is even lower for another upside chip.

 

That said, while he'll never be face-of-the team material, and it's admittedly a small sample size so far, I've seen weirder stuff. He was a solid player in Tampa, maybe LA just wasn't a good fit for the guy... (a la Lynn here)

 

Fully expect him to fade... but fun to watch for now...

Lynn was bad for his first six to eight starts and then largely turned it around. Logan Forsythe has been terrible for the past two years. In the past six seasons he’s had two good years (#3 and #4) and been pretty terrible the other four. He’ll be 32 next season.

 

There’s nothing Logan Forsythe can do down the stretch that makes me want to bring him back. I hope he hits well enough to be traded for a lottery ticket.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Having a RH hitter who is a veteran and somewhat of a known quantity would be good for 2019, especially with a team that has question marks at second and third next year.

 

That's using the word hitter very loosely there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lynn was bad for his first six to eight starts and then largely turned it around. Logan Forsythe has been terrible for the past two years. In the past six seasons he’s had two good years (#3 and #4) and been pretty terrible the other four. He’ll be 32 next season.

 

There’s nothing Logan Forsythe can do down the stretch that makes me want to bring him back. I hope he hits well enough to be traded for a lottery ticket.

 

concur.

[yarnivek1972]

Lynn was bad for his first six to eight starts and then largely turned it around. Logan Forsythe has been terrible for the past two years. In the past six seasons he’s had two good years (#3 and #4) and been pretty terrible the other four. He’ll be 32 next season.

 

There’s nothing Logan Forsythe can do down the stretch that makes me want to bring him back. I hope he hits well enough to be traded for a lottery ticket.

Not even if he hit .800 with 50 HR?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Your initial thought was right - this is not necessary. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Not even if he hit .800 with 50 HR?

 

Maybe then you offer him $3M for a year with a team option.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not even if he hit .800 with 50 HR?

Then you give him a drug test.

 

And if he passes, you give him a lucrative offer to be player/trainer.

[Winston Smith]

I don't remember anyone wanting him when the trade was made. He's been really bad for nearly 2 years but in a very SSS he gets hot and now they should bring him back?

I vote no, please aim a little higher this winter.