How the Twins Could Do "It"

[BoofBonser]

As of 7/31/2018-1:27 A.M., your Minnesota Twins currently sit 8 games back of the division leading Cleveland Indians. The Twins are in full-sell mode after shipping away Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Zach Duke, and Lance Lynn each to contending teams. It seems as the front office has waved the white flag on the 2018 season. Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer have publicly expressed how deflated the moral is inside the clubhouse. However, there is a certain something that always seems to cure strife within a team: Winning during a playoff race.

 

Yes, I know what you're thinking. "Boof, this season is over. The front office is literally trying to make Molitor lose. We're too far out of the race." However, I'm here to tell you that there is still a (un)reasonable chance this team can win the division. The following situations involve plenty of IF's and BUT's, but if the Twins are going to win the division (I almost laughed typing that) the if's and but's will have to be bountiful. This article is meant to be very optimistic and will probably end up sounding satirical, but hey, a Twins fan can always dream.

 

Current Minnesota Twins Record: 49-56

Remaining Home Games: 29

Remaining Away Games: 28

Remaining Twins schedule:

vs. Cleveland (2 games), @Cleveland (7 games) W/L Prediction: 7-2

vs. Royals (6 games), @Royals (4 games) W/L Prediction: 8-2

vs. Tigers (7 games), @Tigers (6 games) W/L Prediction: 10-3

vs. Pirates (2 games) W/L Prediction: 1-1

vs. White Sox (5 games), @White Sox (2 games) W/L Prediction: 6-1

vs. Athletics (4 games), @Athletics (3 games) W/L Prediction: 3-4

vs. Yankees (3 games) W/L Prediction: 1-2

@Rangers (3 games) W/L Prediction: 2-1

@Astros (3 games) W/L Prediction: 1-2

Final Record Prediction: 88-74

 

Current Cleveland Indians Record: 57-48

Remaining Home Games: 28

Remaining Away Games: 29

Remaining Indians schedule

vs. Twins (7 games), @Twins (2 games) Prediction: 2-7

vs. Angels (3 games) Prediction: 1-2

vs. White Sox (3 games), @White Sox (6 games) Prediction: 6-3

@Reds (3 games) Prediction: 1-2

vs. Tigers (3 games) Prediction: 2-1

vs. Orioles (3 games) Prediction: 3-0

vs. Red Sox (3 games), @Red Sox (4 games) Prediction: 2-5

vs. Royals (3 games), @Royals (7 games) Prediction: 8-2

vs. Rays (3 games), @Rays (3 games) Prediction: 3-3

@Blue Jays (4 games) Prediction: 2-2

Final Record Prediction: 87-75

 

Yes, a lot of things will have to go right for the Twins to even come close to this mark. The Indians will have to play around .500 ball the rest of the season, .526% (30-27) to be exact. Twins will have to go 39-18, a .684% mark. 

However, this isn't just about throwing a giant turd at the wall and hoping it sticks; a legitimate argument can be made for this run. 

 

The Case for the Twins 

The Twins offense has under-performed all season due to the literal disappearance of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Brian Dozier hasn't revved up his second-half engine. Max Kepler's production is down. However, Eddie Rosario is having another breakout year. Joe Mauer is at least putting up respectable numbers. Mitch Garver is showing why he was a highly rated offensive catcher. Polanco is hitting well and still improving. Jake Cave has a very solid approach at the plate and is valuable in the lineup. If, and I mean IF, Sano, Dozier, Kepler, and maybe even Buxton (in September) could find the same magic that they have had in the past, this offense could be very powerful in August and September. The starting pitching has been very solid and will continue to be; Lance Lynn's departure hardly hurts this group. The trading of Ryan Pressly and Zach Duke opened up late-inning gaps in the bullpen, but Adalberto Mejia and Gabriel Moya have filled in honorably in a short amount of time. Addison Reed is also returning from the DL (gulp). There are also other potential bullpen options waiting in AAA such as Trevor May, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Tyler Duffey, among others.

August Magic
Entering August during the 2017 season, the Minnesota Twins sat at 50-53 after losing 6 out of their last 7 games to end July. Then, August magic happened. The Twins ended August with a 20-10 record, propelling them towards a Wild Card spot in a season that was supposed to be given up on. This August, the Twins play the Indians 8 times, the Royals 3 times, the Tigers 7 times, and the White Sox 3 times. It's simple: Play well against the Indians, win the games you're supposed to against the weaker teams, and this team has a shot. Crazier things have happened. 

 

Well, I just typed all of this at 3:00 A.M. on a Monday night/Tuesday morning.. all in hopes of seeing my Minnesota Twins get swept in the ALDS... Yeah, that sounds glorious to me right now. A man can dream. 

[BoofBonser]

I am positive I'm going to wake up tomorrow and slap myself for making this obnoxious post, but right now I really don't care. Hopefully Falvine sees this. Boof out. 

[tbhysgb]

Beat the Indians the rest of the way and play good baseball here on out. Probably not gonna happen but maybe they’ll realize how serious it is now.

[Platoon]

Yes, I know what you're thinking. "Boof, this season Is over" I was sort of thinking that myself. But sort of like the movie where the guys says about the girl he wants, "so you mean there's a chance?" I do like your optimism and self reflection though. But I also hope the teams goal is improvement and analysis, not winning a few extra games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Remaining Twins schedule:

vs. Yankees (3 games) W/L Prediction: 1-2

 

This might be the most far-fetched part of your blueprint -- the Twins winning a game vs the Yankees?

 

Basically, it boils down to making up games head-to-head vs Cleveland. Considering our last game with Cleveland is August 30, doing that could narrow the race considerably with a full month left to play, which would be very interesting by itself. (Although likely invite a lot of second-guessing about deadline moves too.)

 

We wouldn't necessarily have to finish 1 game ahead after 162 games either -- we could force another game 163 tiebreaker, which we would also host thanks to that head-to-head record (no more coin flips).

[scottz]

Hey man, I hope you’re right. You probably should be committed, but I hope you’re right.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes, I know what you're thinking. "Boof, this season is over. The front office is literally trying to make Molitor lose. We're too far out of the race." However, I'm here to tell you that there is still a (un)reasonable chance this team can win the division.

Guys, if we can trust anyone about this, it's Boof Bonser. We called him up August 1st, 2006 when we were 9.5 games behind the Tigers, and we all know how that turned out!

 

We went 7-4 in Boof's starts in that stretch, including 5-1 in September. Who can be 2018's Boof Bonser?

[diehardtwinsfan]

It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

They use to play this clip at the stadium when the Twins trailed going into the bottom of the ninth. Suffice to say, it usually was over when Mariano Rivera bombed the Metrodome.

[Riverbrian]

Addition by subtraction

 

I don't have time to do the research this morning but I know: 

 

There are examples of selling teams that became winning teams after selling. 

There are examples of buying teams that become losing teams after buying. 

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Lynn certainly wasn't as bad as people seem to think. I'm skeptical that someone wfrom the minors will step up and replace his post-April numbers. 

 

Duke was barely used, so I could see that being an addition.

 

No one in the system can replace Escobar or Pressley this season.

[IndianaTwin]

It’s doubtful, but I think the odds are better than the percentage likelihoods that are given in most settings. I think it’s also simpler than what you describe (though believe me, I almost always prefer long and lengthy explanations — just ask my wife. Kudos for your work.).

 

Here’s the simple version:

1. Beat the Indians 7 out of 9. How likely is that? Not, but not unrealistic.

2. Make up 3 games the rest of the way (to tie, 4 games to win).

 

If we were only 3 games back, we’d likely be in (slight) buy mode, and few of us would consider the team out of it. How likely is to make up 3-4 games in the rest of the season? Perhaps (probably) less than 50/50, but not at all impossible, for some of the reasons you describe above.

 

Look, I get that 7 games under .500 is what it is, and that’s how the Twins have played to date. But consider this:

First 52 games: 22-30

Next 52 games: 26-26

Remaining 58 games: 1-0 (so far)

 

In other words, with last night, the Twins have played as long (technically, longer) as a .500 team than they have as a “bad” team. And even in the stretch as a .500 team, there’s a strong sense they’ve underperformed. Said another way, it’s not unusual for .500 teams to play somewhat better than .500 ball for a lengthy time. And I think this is still better than a .500-ball roster.

 

I repeat. Not “likely,” but not impossible either. Looking ahead, I would concur that with Santana, Sano back, the potential resurgence of some others, and guys in Rochester, the team may not have dramatically weakened itself in terms of talent. I think there’s greater likelihood of them falling apart mentally under the perception of giving up than there is of them falling apart in terms of talent. For that reason, I think tonight and tomorrow night are huge. Win both, and the stage is set for a “screw you, we’re only six back, and we’ve got seven more with Cleveland” response. I think that’s especially the case since the next four games with Cleveland come so quickly — next week. Win only one, and that is a much tougher mindset to have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Lynn certainly wasn't as bad as people seem to think. I'm skeptical that someone wfrom the minors will step up and replace his post-April numbers.

 

Lynn post-April wasn't that great, overall. Pretty comparable to Mejia's numbers from 2017, or Romero's 2018.

 

Erv has me a little nervous, like he might be the shaky replacement for Lynn, in which case the young pitcher would have to be even better if we want to improve the team overall. (Would need improvement from Odorizzi too.)

[70charger]

 

Yes, I know what you're thinking. "Boof, this season Is over" I was sort of thinking that myself. But sort of like the movie where the guys says about the girl he wants, "so you mean there's a chance?" I do like your optimism and self reflection though. But I also hope the teams goal is improvement and analysis, not winning a few extra games.

 

[Monkeypaws]

I'd be happy just to see a climb up to .500+

 

82-80, and this season will be a success all things considered.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's a season multiple of three!!!

 

2006: epic rally to catch Detroit

 

2009: down 7 games back in September

 

2012: never mind

 

2015: first pennant race in five years

 

2018: ?!!?!?

[Shaitan]

 

I'd be happy just to see a climb up to .500+

 

82-80, and this season will be a success all things considered.

 

Plus, a winning record makes it easier to sign free agents in the off-season.

 

Let's not forget that Duke, Lynn, and Morrison all likely agreed to their tradeable contracts because they didn't expect the Twins to be bottom dwellers.

[BoofBonser]

 

Guys, if we can trust anyone about this, it's Boof Bonser. We called him up August 1st, 2006 when we were 9.5 games behind the Tigers, and we all know how that turned out!

We went 7-4 in Boof's starts in that stretch, including 5-1 in September. Who can be 2018's Boof Bonser?

!Stephen Gonsalves!

[BoofBonser]

Guys, I have good news
I didn't regret writing this when I woke up
Must be destiny 

[Loosey]

The Indians go 30-27 (somewhat possible). The Twins go 39-18 . . . .(Somewhat impossible).

[IndianaTwin]

 

It's a season multiple of three!!!

2006: epic rally to catch Detroit

2009: down 7 games back in September

2012: never mind

2015: first pennant race in five years

2018: ?!!?!?

 

You didn't go back far enough:

 

1991: oh yeah!

 

     (intervening years clipped in the interest of brevity. really, for brevity, nothing else.)

 

2006: epic rally...

[jimbo92107]

Once you get rid of Rodney and Belisle, you've got seven 40-man guys in Rochester, plus Stewart (not on the 40?), to rotate in and out of the pitching staff. After Dozier and Morison and Wilson are gone, you've got several guys in AAA, plus Rooker in AA, that can try out to replace them. Also, Buxton should come up immediately to finish the season with the club. If that means sending Cave down or releasing Grossman, so be it. 

 

To me, it's exciting to see young talent come up and cut their teeth at the mlb level. In off years, I get my entertainment from late season tryouts. 

[mendozaline]

Getting swept out of the break by KC hurt. If we go 2-1 in that series we're only 6 out and that doesn't look so daunting. If only....

[BoofBonser]

 

Getting swept out of the break by KC hurt. If we go 2-1 in that series we're only 6 out and that doesn't look so daunting. If only....

Yeah, what a crippling series... a sweep this series and we'd be looking at 4 GB's with 7 left to play against the Tribe. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's a season multiple of three!!!

 

2006: epic rally to catch Detroit

 

2009: down 7 games back in September

 

2012: never mind

 

2015: first pennant race in five years

 

2018: ?!!?!?

You forgot 2003: 7.5 back at the break, still 6.5 back on July 29 -- that was the Johan to the rotation / Shannon Stewart trade season

[nicksaviking]

 

Lynn certainly wasn't as bad as people seem to think. I'm skeptical that someone wfrom the minors will step up and replace his post-April numbers. 

 

Duke was barely used, so I could see that being an addition.

 

No one in the system can replace Escobar or Pressley this season.

 

I don't know about Lynn, he pitched better but I was far from convinced he'd turned a corner. I could see Mejia being adequate and if they end up turning back to Romero, I think a case could be made that they upgraded.

 

Escobar can't be replaced, but if Polanco regains his form from last year, he'd be a close proximate. I'll miss Pressly, but he looks about one more stretch of three consecutive days pitched away from a DL stint.

[jokin]

 

 Also, Buxton should come up immediately to finish the season with the club. If that means sending Cave down or releasing Grossman, so be it. 

 

 

 

 

?

Buxton still isn't close. He's actually closer to getting shut down or sent down lower than getting promoted.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not quite. Each Twins win only gains us a half game in the standings. So flipping 2 losses to wins would only gain us 1 game, and we'd still be 7 games back now.

 

In that sense, the KC sweep wasn't *that* damaging, although it certainly didn't help. As Boof demonstrated, we will probably need to sweep KC at some point yet this season to have any chance. (And probably DET and CHW too.)

But you not only add 2 wins, you also subtract 2 losses.

We'd be 2 games closer to Cleveland had we gone 2-1 against KC, not 1 game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But you not only add 2 wins, you also subtract 2 losses.

We'd be 2 games closer to Cleveland had we gone 2-1 against KC, not 1 game.

I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the worst. You're very good-looking. I'm not attractive.

[lukeduke1980]

 

No one in the system can replace Escobar or Pressley this season.

2017 Sano and 2015 Trevor May could