Rotation

[John Kelsey]

 

Yah, May has to prove himself again in order to get a chance. Right now, I see him as a long shot to ever make the Twins rotation. He was at his best when he was coming in and throwing 95-98mph gas and breezing through the 8th inning. I'm sorry for him if he feels like that is not where we get the most out of him, but I think it is. 

 

I'd love to see him come back with that heat and become an effective reliever with this club. That has plenty of value to this team IMO.

 

The problem is, he wasn't doing this. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

There should be no such things as a innings limit on a pitcher for a season. It should be a limit on number of pitches thrown

It’s not quite that simple. 100 pitches over 6 innings is less wear and tear than 100 pitches over 8 innings due to the stress of additional warm-ups, and the arm cooling down and heating up more often. I have to think smart organizations that have millions invested in pitchers take both into account in a much more scientific way than I can.

[howeda7]

Santana can't come back until 5/28. They have a double-header on 6/5. I wouldn't be surprised if they kick the can and just go with a 6 man rotation for at least 2 turns until after the double-header.

 

We need to brace ourselves for the high possibility that they will keep Lynn over Romero if they can possibly justify doing so. 

[old nurse]

 

I would only tell you that the Twins probably want him to have more innings pitched than Tweets.  He has had a variety of ailments that has held him back.  That is what we know.  Whether there is a connection between Tweets and video games to pitching in games is not what my statement was about.

 

Sorry about that post.  I carried out a discussion I had elsewhere with friends who think the Twins have messed him up on this board,  Not a discussion I want to start here! 

Comparing innings pitched to activity on twitter is beyond being odd as one has nothing to do with the other.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Do we go to a 6 man rotation?

 

Saves innings on Romero and, to a lesser extent, Berrios. Keeps Santana fresh. I don't see any of the 6 being knocked out. Like mentioned above-good problem to have, and injuries happen every year. 

 

If no one is hurt, this is where I think they go. Romero will be on an innings limit this year, and going to a 6 man effectively allows him to hit that limit and pitch into October... that assumes of course that he doesn't implode and no one gets hurt.

[USAFChief]

 

It’s not quite that simple. 100 pitches over 6 innings is less wear and tear than 100 pitches over 8 innings due to the stress of additional warm-ups, and the arm cooling down and heating up more often. I have to think smart organizations that have millions invested in pitchers take both into account in a much more scientific way than I can.

I don't know, but this seems backwards to me. My guess is that 100 pitches over 8 innings results in less wear and tear than 100 pitches over 6 innings, although I'd guess the difference is small.

 

I'd base my opinion on the simple correlation between the above, and my almost certain belief that 100 pitches over 8 innings is less stressful than 100 pitches over 1 inning.  

 

My belief is that more, over less time, is more stressful than the same amount, over more time.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

The problem is, he wasn't doing this. 

 

What was he doing then? He threw hard and was our best reliever for a stretch. If I mispoke and gave him more credit than he was due, whatever. My point is he was an effective reliever and threw hard. 

[yarnivek1972]

I don't know, but this seems backwards to me. My guess is that 100 pitches over 8 innings results in less wear and tear than 100 pitches over 6 innings, although I'd guess the difference is small.

 

I'd base my opinion on the simple correlation between the above, and my almost certain belief that 100 pitches over 8 innings is less stressful than 100 pitches over 1 inning.

 

My belief is that more, over less time, is more stressful than the same amount, over more time.

I would be inclined to agree with this assessment. 100 pitches in 5 or 6 innings were almost certainly higher stress than 100 in 7 or 8 would be.

 

 

 

As for the 6 man rotation idea, I guess that’s fine through the June doubleheader. But, realistically there is no way the Twins can carry 6 starters and 8 relievers (the number they have now). 7 would still mean a very short bench. Unless the starters consistently pitch 6-7 innings, 6 relievers wouldn’t likely be enough. I’m not too worried about it. They usually work themselves out.

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

As for the 6 man rotation idea, I guess that’s fine through the June doubleheader. But, realistically there is no way the Twins can carry 6 starters and 8 relievers (the number they have now). 7 would still mean a very short bench. Unless the starters consistently pitch 6-7 innings, 6 relievers wouldn’t likely be enough. I’m not too worried about it. They usually work themselves out.

 

Agree with this.  Also, between the options they have on Romero/Gonsalves/Mejia and the 10-day DL, they could manipulate a lot (Dodgers do a lot of this). 

[ewen21]

 

Comparing innings pitched to activity on twitter is beyond being odd as one has nothing to do with the other.

YOu think he'd be THIS active on Twitter if he were pitching?  I'll tell you what, if he is then he needs a good talking to.

 

https://twitter.com/trevmay65

Ridiculous.

 

 

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Innings;

 

2014: 12

2015: 0

2016: 90.1

2017: 125

 

It would be foolish to "take the training wheels off". He absolutely should have some limit this year, even if it is around 160

. Based on what? There is no evidence increasing innings hurts

[TFRazor]

 

YOu think he'd be THIS active on Twitter if he were pitching?  I'll tell you what, if he is then he needs a good talking to.

 

https://twitter.com/trevmay65

Ridiculous.

 

 

 

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He can do whatever he wants in his free time. After all, it's HIS free time. While I can think of several things that I'd rather be doing with my time than thinking up things to say on twitter, if that's his bag then more power to him. His social media and video games hobby is in no way harming him or the organization. Don't understand how this is a sticking point.

[ewen21]

 

He can do whatever he wants in his free time. After all, it's HIS free time. While I can think of several things that I'd rather be doing with my time than thinking up things to say on twitter, if that's his bag then more power to him

He sure can, but I and everyone have the freedom to judge him based off that page.  I think if you are working in the public sector (I do, taxpayers pay my salary) or are a professional athlete you really have to be more discerning than he is on his page (and probably a lot less active).  

 

Not a fan of what he did during the Sano controversy.  He reached out to the accuser via a Tweet.  I found that to be entirely inappropriate.  

[TFRazor]

 

He sure can, but I and everyone have the freedom to judge him based off that page.  I think if you are working in the public sector (I do, taxpayers pay my salary) or are a professional athlete you really have to be more discerning than he is on his page (and probably a lot less active).  

 

Not a fan of what he did during the Sano controversy.  He reached out to the accuser via a Tweet.  I found that to be entirely inappropriate.  

1. What about him being a professional athlete means he should be "less active"? I imagine that there are many professional athletes who are much more active than he is. Social media is money-making enterprise for athletes now. Hell, Dwayne Johnson is almost a 50-yr old man and he has 2,000 more tweets than Trevor.

 

2. He did reach out to the accuser on social media. Maybe that's because he knows her and possibly they have a friendly relationship outside of the workplace. I will also point that that other current and former members of the team like Trevor Plouffe also reached out to her on twitter. It's often how some people of my generation communicate.

 

[Mike Sixel]

He sure can, but I and everyone have the freedom to judge him based off that page. I think if you are working in the public sector (I do, taxpayers pay my salary) or are a professional athlete you really have to be more discerning than he is on his page (and probably a lot less active).

 

Not a fan of what he did during the Sano controversy. He reached out to the accuser via a Tweet. I found that to be entirely inappropriate.

Judge him for having a hobby? Like, what is he actually doing that is wrong? As for the Sano thing, let's not rehash that again.

[old nurse]

 

YOu think he'd be THIS active on Twitter if he were pitching?  I'll tell you what, if he is then he needs a good talking to.

 

https://twitter.com/trevmay65

Ridiculous.

 

 

 

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Judge him for having a hobby? Like, what is he actually doing that is wrong? As for the Sano thing, let's not rehash that again.

Just picking on someone here in fun but May has less twitter posts than someone  has TD posts, yet the TD poster manages to do his job. Twitter has been around for 13-14 years. The number of posts is not that many. May still has less posts than https://twitter.com/kimkardashian?lang=en   

 

Warning, the link may be hazardous to your health

[ewen21]

 

Just picking on someone here in fun but May has less twitter posts than someone  has TD posts, yet the TD poster manages to do his job. Twitter has been around for 13-14 years. The number of posts is not that many. May still has less posts than https://twitter.com/kimkardashian?lang=en   

 

Warning, the link may be hazardous to your health

1.  Twins Daily posters aren't high profile pro athletes

2.  Most Twins Daily posters don't use their actual names.  I use a handle because posting about my favorite baseball team is my hobby.  I choose to keep that private because this is my leisure time and I don't need people analyzing what I do....

Because,3.  I teach in public schools and I don't think teacher's or administrators should do any social media unless it is job-related.  I think you take silly risks by putting your personal life out there.  I don't do it.  

4.  If you are going to do it then be prepared to be judged for the things you say.  Don't be overly sensitive if you put yourself out there and get ripped.

 

As with teachers, public servants, law enforcement officers, professional athletes are scrutinized.  i could die today and that isn't going to change.  I don't make the rules, that is just how it is.  He chooses to put himself out there and talks about his thoughts and beliefs then he has to own that.  I don't need to own anything I say here outside of this forum and under my handle.  I really couldn't give two craps about what Trevor May thinks or feels, but he is supplying us with this information about himself.  Why, I have no idea?  I just think it is silly. If I am a pro-athlete I am not doing it. for the same reason I don't do it now.  IF he has the Jones to be a bro online then he should join a board and be anonymous, imo.  Tweeting about what he's up sets him up for trouble.

 

He hasn't been in a game since September 11, 2016.  His lifetime ERA is over 5.00 and his WHIP is 1.429.  Tweet all you want, but as a Twins fan and someone who also works in the public eye, I don't have to like his social media persona.  Not my style.

[ewen21]

And that is as far as I want to carry out this discussion here.  If anyone wants to private message me to talk about this feel free to.  This is about the rotation NOT Trevor May. 

[old nurse]

 

I don't give May a single moments thought unless one of my friends tells me the Twins screwed him over.  IN that case I remind them of his career WHIP.  Time for Trevor to put on the big boy pants.  Stop Tweeting and playing video games and stay on the field.  I am getting tired of people making his case.  How about he prove himself first?  The clock is ticking.  Dude is 28 now.  Enough already.  Enough.

 

I hope he does well, but I am tired of certain people I know bemoaning his plight with this organization.  Sorry to vent it here

 

 

And that is as far as I want to carry out this discussion here.  If anyone wants to private message me to talk about this feel free to.  This is about the rotation NOT Trevor May. 

You brought it up as a way of criticism of May. To some May still has potential to be a servicable starter. What hinders or helps that progression should be fair game for discussion.

[Thrylos]

So far the Twins rotation this season has been something like this:

 

Romero

Gibson

Berrios

----

 

Odorizzi

 

----

 

Lynn

Hughes

 

Whether Santana will slot above or below Odorizzi if he comes back, remains to be seen.  Also, Lynn might overtake Odorizzi at some point, his FIP just fell below Odorizzi's.

 

Three (maybe 4 with May) way fight for the number 4 and 5 spots, but the top 3 should be left alone.  Gibson has been the Twins most consistent pitcher this season before Romero arrived and Berrios has higher upside than Gibson.

 

And there is a big if here, since the last slider Santana threw in a game was in the wild card game last season.  So he needs to pitch well, otherwise he will be competing with Hughes for that long man position...

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

1. He was a better starter in 2015 than he was a reliever in 2016. 

2. Starters are more valuable 

3. He mentioned that his body didn't respond well to pitching nearly every day as a reliever and may have led to his back problems.

It's like the difference between a sprinter and a distance runner.

[twins1095]

There's been some discussion over the value of a starter versus the value of a reliever and I think in a vaccum that does make sense. However, I do think context matters...

 

This Twins team would benefit much much much more from having the type of reliever that May was flashing before his injury.  May was flashing shut down potential before the injury...you wouldn't have been wrong to say future closer.  I tend to think that the closer term is a little outdated.  I think regardless of where May was trending towards, he was trending towards a guy that you could count on to get you high leverage outs or innings in key situations late in games wherever that may be.  He also seems like a guy that could give you 2 shutdown innings on a consistent basis rather than one if you wanted to push him into that role and get a little innovative with it.  

 

I have no idea if he will be able to return at that level, but that's one of, if not the biggest factor, that the Twins team is currently missing.  Not only do you add that type of player to your bullpen it pushes down all of your other current bullpen arms into "lesser" roles for a lack of a better term adding value all across the board.  

 

As a starter May's ceiling is/was a Jake Odorizzi or Kyle Gibson level starter.  We have at least 2 of those, 3 if you count Lynn, maybe more if you count some options in the minors.  

 

It's not like putting May in that role on a team and in a situation where adding that kind of ability is sorely needed would stop you from being able to stretch him out in the future if we lose our SP depth.  It seems to me that both now and for the forseeable future SPing depth is one of our positions of strength to some extent.  

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Again this wouldn't stop you from being able to stretch out May over the offseason and give him every chance to win a starting job next spring if he earns it either...

 

 

Yah, May has to prove himself again in order to get a chance. Right now, I see him as a long shot to ever make the Twins rotation. He was at his best when he was coming in and throwing 95-98mph gas and breezing through the 8th inning. I'm sorry for him if he feels like that is not where we get the most out of him, but I think it is. 

 

I'd love to see him come back with that heat and become an effective reliever with this club. That has plenty of value to this team IMO.

 

[twins1095]

 

I think May will take awhile to work his way back in the minors and while they said he would come back as a starter I don't think that is a given.  I would consider him, like Pineda, an asset for next year.

 

Once Santana is back it seems like Odirizzi/ Lynn/ Gibson/ Gonsalvez/ Mejia (where did he go?) are fighting for 2 spots. 

 

Lynn has the best track record if he gets his control problems corrected.

 

Gibson's changes have been intriguing but he is still prone to collapsing quickly.

 

Gonsalvez probably stays in AAA to be injury insurance.

 

Mejia probably moves to the pen.

 

Odirizzi is the most interesting to me, he has been pretty solid as a starter but he throws so many pitches he is always done by the 5th or 6th inning.  Would his stuff play up in the pen?  Could he have a Wade Davis style transformation to being a solid late inning guy?

 

I actually really like Odorizzi in the role that he's in.  Yes, he uses a lot of pitches and yes he's not really ever going to go more than 5 or 6 innings, but I don't really think that's a bad thing.  Especially with how situational baseball has become or is trending towards or at least managers/baseball people say they want to trend towards. 

 

Odorizzi isn't a good enough pitcher to be able to get away with offering a lot over the plate...so he's going to nibble and throw a lot of pitches that tail out of the zone and aren't great pitches to hit.  This is going to rack up his pitch count, it's also going to lead to a lot of walks, however it's also going to lead to a lot of strikeouts and limit hits and balls in play.  I think we've seen this is Odorizzi's profile.  Further, I've seen analysis that shows that Odorizzi really struggles the 3rd time through most lineups.  

 

This kind of style limits your ceiling as a pitcher, but it also raises your floor.  You're not going to ever really go past the 6th inning at best, but if you know that and are aware of it you don't have to worry about trying to be super efficient.  You know you have 100 or so pitches to get through 5 or 6 innings and you can use them how you please.

 

If you know your #4 or #5 guy is going to give you 5 or 6 innings that either put you ahead or in a position to compete to win a ball game on a nightly basis, good teams should have bullpen depth to be able to navigate 3 or 4 innings.  

 

In a way it's almost a perfect role and you should be able to use your bullpen to get the matchups you want and close out games.  

 

It might even be the prototypical modern back-end of the rotation starter.  

[nicksaviking]

 

He sure can, but I and everyone have the freedom to judge him based off that page.  I think if you are working in the public sector (I do, taxpayers pay my salary) or are a professional athlete you really have to be more discerning than he is on his page (and probably a lot less active).  

 

Not a fan of what he did during the Sano controversy.  He reached out to the accuser via a Tweet.  I found that to be entirely inappropriate.  

 

So Twitter for Trevor May = Bad?

 

Twins Daily for you = Acceptable?

[gocgo]

 

Romero, Santana, Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi.

 

Lynn could be the long reliever when Santana comes back. May could be a bullpen arm. Hughes might be the odd man out since he is not effective anymore.

Romero to the bullpen for long relief....if they don't he will hit an innings max and they won't want to shut him down in August.

[nicksaviking]

Barring several injuries I don't see May in the rotation this year. Not only is he rusty, but they're going to want to manage his innings which is easier to do in AAA or in the MLB bullpen.

 

But the guy can carry good velocity throughout his starts and has four pitches he can and does throw at any time, his profile is what the team has just turned Kyle Gibson into, what Jose Berrios is supposed to be and pretty much what every starter in Cleveland has been for the past half decade. I'd be pretty surprised if the team doesn't intent for him to resume being a starter any later than next spring.

[Tomj14]

Romero has a combined 32.2 innings this year.

He could start another 25 games this year? and if he averages 5.4 innings per start(I think that is the league average) he will end up with 135 + 32.2 = 167.2.

 

IMO I don't think we really need to worry too much about his innings.

[Riverbrian]

If May can be optioned to AAA... that would make a lot of sense. 

 

That brings you down to 6 potential starters for the rotation without any DL stints and some time to see how it shakes out. 

 

Will one of the starters have to be moved to the pen? Maybe... but that decision can be made later. 

 

We just don't know how the landscape will look when Santana comes back. 

 

Can a team with extra starters figure it out... Yep... Look at the Astros and Dodgers... they got extra arms and they are probably very happy that they do. 

 

It's a fantastic problem to have and  I won't be completely happy until Paul Molitor walks into his office every morning and loses his hair trying to decide who is going to play today because every single option is a good option. 

[twins1095]

Another really good start for Odorizzi...despite some worrying peripherals (.243 BABIP, 83% strand rate, 5.30 FIP, 4.95 xFIP) I think he's solidifying a formula that looks repeatable and should work for him.

 

He's an extremely weird pitcher, although the BABIP, Strand Rate, and FIPs are all higher than one would hope for suggesting he's getting very lucky so far.  He's always been a buy with a BABIP well below league average (.300 --> .267), Strand Rate well above league average (70-72-->76) and FIPs/xFIPs that are well above his career ERA (3.8/4.3).

 

So Odorizzi, to some extent seems to be a guy that the traditional methods of identifying whether current performance should correlate to future success using advanced stats...doesn't really work as well as it does for most pitchers.  

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Further, Odorizzi is pretty much at or within decimal points of all of his career traditional stats (before this game)...

 

I think his career high HR/FB% and BB% should come down which should bring down the OPS/SLG/OBP/AVG numbers that are all slightly above his career averages.  Against this, more balls in play that fall and lower runners stranded should lead to more runners on base and more runners that score.  Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effects from the competing pressures of the normalization of all of those indicators wash out to some extent.  So while I don't think the 3.3 ERA is quite sustainable, I do think an ERA in the mid to high-mid 3's is obtainable for Odorizzi.  

 

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Odorizzi is one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers that I've ever seen--his usual GB rate is around 30-33%.  This means that he gives up a ton of fly-balls meaning it will be important for Odorizzi to try and keep the ball in the park--which he's struggled with at times this season.  The Twins could be the perfect team for Odorizzi--the OF when healthy with Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler is going to get to just about as many balls as any OF group in the league.  The OF defense behind Odorizzi will be key to maximizing Odorizzi. 

 

Fly-ball pitchers give up a lower BABIP, but more XBH hits--which we've seen with Odorizzi.  We've also seen his above-average ability to limit guys from scoring by being able to strike players out and allowing fly balls and in-field fly balls that prevent batters from advancing.  

 

Again, I think to do this Odorizzi needs to use lots of pitches--so I think that fans have to accept the lack of 5 and 6 innings starts from Odorizzi rather than deeper outings.  But in this role I really do think he can have success and I think that's one of the better #4/#5 options the Twins have had in a long-time.  

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

To me the success seems relatively real, the ERA will come back a little bit, but Odorizzi is on the perfect team with the Twins outfield defense to have one of his better years and have success going forward. 

 

This guy really intrigues me because of his uniqueness. 

 

[John Kelsey]

Strong start for May in Rochester today.