By the end of Wednesday, it’s possible that we are in first place again

[kydoty]

Just let that sink in for a moment, considering what this team has gone through over the first month and change. Yeah, the central has been garbage so far, but never apologize for that. Getting in the postseason is all that matters as it is a complete crapshoot once you’re in.

[Squirrel]

I hope you didn’t just jinx us!

[Puckett34]

 

Just let that sink in for a moment, considering what this team has gone through over the first month and change. Yeah, the central has been garbage so far, but never apologize for that. Getting in the postseason is all that matters as it is a complete crapshoot once you’re in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUqBtVdWyx0

[Thrylos]

 

 Getting in the postseason is all that matters as it is a complete crapshoot once you’re in.

 

This is not true.  Ask the Ron Gardenhire Twins.  Were it a crapshoot, they'd won the world series once and been there another time...

[mickeymental]

I'd rather ask the tom kelly twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is not true. Ask the Ron Gardenhire Twins. Were it a crapshoot, they'd won the world series once and been there another time...

Rolling a seven once does not prevent you from rolling it a second time. Or a third. Or a fourth.

 

I don’t think the MLB postseason is a total crapshoot but it’s heavily dependent on luck, far more than other sports.

[Platoon]

Maybe I am am being to picky, but I had hoped by now this would be a team that was competitive with every other team in MLB. Not one which requires being in a lousy division, and needing to count on a plethora of games against teams like the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers to accumulate wins in the low 80's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe I am am being to picky, but I had hoped by now this would be a team that was competitive with every other team in MLB. Not one which requires being in a lousy division, and needing to count on a plethora of games against teams like the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers to accumulate wins in the low 80's.

They played Houston straight up. Then they completely collapsed.

 

I have no idea what this team will look like in two months but I’ll be disappointed if their only shot at the postseason is by trouncing their terrible divisional rivals.

[Platoon]

They played Houston straight up. Then they completely collapsed.

I have no idea what this team will look like in two months but I’ll be disappointed if their only shot at the postseason is by trouncing their terrible divisional rivals.

I hope you're right. But I had also hoped by this time that that would be already apparent.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Rolling a seven once does not prevent you from rolling it a second time. Or a third. Or a fourth.

I don’t think the MLB postseason is a total crapshoot but it’s heavily dependent on luck, far more than other sports.

Are we talking about a 7 game series or a 1 game WC here?

[TheLeviathan]

Cleveland's offense may just be so "meh" it doesn't matter how well they pitch.  Before the season I thought they were a tad overrated for that reason (and said as much).  They might still turn it around, but they aren't the juggernaut many think IMO.

 

And if they start trending the wrong way every significant member of their bullpen, Brantley, and Chisenhall might all be on their way out.

[nicksaviking]

Rolling a seven once does not prevent you from rolling it a second time. Or a third. Or a fourth.

I don’t think the MLB postseason is a total crapshoot but it’s heavily dependent on luck, far more than other sports.

It's not a game of chance though, not only is it allowable but it is encouraged to tilt the odds in your favor. Since McPhail left this team has never acquired an ace. They were among the last teams to take advantage of statistics even though math is free. They held onto managers, coaches, front office personnel and players after they became liabilities not before.

 

Yeah, there's some luck and they can go into each and every post season with their fingers crossed and nothing more, but they are allowed to stack the deck and if they're not, then they aren't being completely honest about how far they are actually willing to go to win.

[brvama]

Maybe I am am being to picky, but I had hoped by now this would be a team that was competitive with every other team in MLB. Not one which requires being in a lousy division, and needing to count on a plethora of games against teams like the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers to accumulate wins in the low 80's.

I often think the same thing and then I realize this is not the team we were expecting to compete; so playing without Buxton, Sano, Polanco, and Santana I have to take our position and feel moderately hopeful. Even having Granite hurt doesn't help fortify the reserves. Thankfully, Escobar and Rosario and carrying the team right now.

[yarnivek1972]

It's not a game of chance though, not only is it allowable but it is encouraged to tilt the odds in your favor. Since McPhail left this team has never acquired an ace. They were among the last teams to take advantage of statistics even though math is free. They held onto managers, coaches, front office personnel and players after they became liabilities not before.

 

Yeah, there's some luck and they can go into each and every post season with their fingers crossed and nothing more, but they are allowed to stack the deck and if they're not, then they aren't being completely honest about how far they are actually willing to go to win.

I’m at a loss as to how Johan Santana doesn’t meet that definition. Or are you saying the Twins didn’t acquire someone who was already an ace when they were acquired? Not sure MacPhail really did either. Sure, Jack Morris pitched like an ace in 1991, but he definitely did not in 1989 or 1990 which is a large part of the reason the Tigers showed little interest in keeping him. The prevailing wisdom was that he was washed up. Smiley maybe I suppose. But that was a salary dump out of Pittsburgh.

[Platoon]

I often think the same thing and then I realize this is not the team we were expecting to compete; so playing without Buxton, Sano, Polanco, and Santana I have to take our position and feel moderately hopeful. Even having Granite hurt doesn't help fortify the reserves. Thankfully, Escobar and Rosario and carrying the team right now.

I agree with your take on the injuries. This team would be better to an extent. But I have not saw the dominance I was hoping for. I doubt Sano is anything close to what we were expecting. Polanco really wasn't supposed to be a Correa or Lindor, and isn't. Nor do we have anyone of that ilk. I still think Buxton has a shot at being that guy, but it's been a long wait, and getting longer. I still have faith in his abilities though. We await for Santana. Our #1. A good teams #3. Maybe it's just me and I over expected. But I repeat, I just never thought we would have to count the games left against the dredges of the league and say, "so you're telling me there is a chance"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's not a game of chance though, not only is it allowable but it is encouraged to tilt the odds in your favor. Since McPhail left this team has never acquired an ace. They were among the last teams to take advantage of statistics even though math is free. They held onto managers, coaches, front office personnel and players after they became liabilities not before.

 

Yeah, there's some luck and they can go into each and every post season with their fingers crossed and nothing more, but they are allowed to stack the deck and if they're not, then they aren't being completely honest about how far they are actually willing to go to win.

Sure, you can tilt odds in your favor but the Twins lost to some inferior teams in the 2000s. They already had the odds tilted and still didn’t pull off a win.*

 

*not making excuses for the complete lack of deadline action some of those years

[Tomj14]

 

I’m at a loss as to how Johan Santana doesn’t meet that definition. Or are you saying the Twins didn’t acquire someone who was already an ace when they were acquired? Not sure MacPhail really did either. Sure, Jack Morris pitched like an ace in 1991, but he definitely did not in 1989 or 1990 which is a large part of the reason the Tigers showed little interest in keeping him. The prevailing wisdom was that he was washed up. Smiley maybe I suppose. But that was a salary dump out of Pittsburgh.

How about Liriano?

[yarnivek1972]

How about Liriano?

He didn’t really sustain long enough to presume the moniker of an ace IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are we talking about a 7 game series or a 1 game WC here?

Both. The WC game is almost complete luck, as one guy can lose or win the game.

 

A seven game series is less dependent on luck, but it's still a significant factor. Especially if the series goes seven games... that final game, like almost any baseball game, is pretty close to a coin flip.

[alarp33]

 

Both. The WC game is almost complete luck, as one guy can lose or win the game.

 

 

 

The Yankees were -245 in the WC game last year.  That's not saying the Twins couldn't have won, but that's a significant favorite and they (NYY) didn't even have an Ace. 

 

1 WC team in the 2xWC era has won the World Series, and that team had a pretty damn good ace that the Twins do not have 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Yankees were -245 in the WC game last year.  That's not saying the Twins couldn't have won, but that's a significant favorite and they don't even have an Ace. 

And the Twins had all the momentum through the first half inning of the game.

 

And then the entire team melted down. That game probably hinged on a couple of pitches that the Twins' two best pitchers didn't execute, pitchers who had some of their worst starts of the entire season in that one game.

 

Inversely, the Yankees' best pitcher melted down.

 

With two teams who both won 85-90 games, any single game is going to be close to a coin flip because baseball, on a single game basis, is crazy-unpredictable. The Yankees were favored because they were the better team but I bet there were loads of bookies crapping their pants after Severino was yanked after getting all of one out.

 

If the baseball postseason wasn't that unpredictable, you wouldn't see the two best starters on one team melt down at the same time the best starter on the opposing team is also melting down.

 

That game was the Wild West and either team could have won after that first inning. Except the Twins continued to melt down while the Yankees righted the ship. The inverse could have just as easily been true.

[nicksaviking]

 

I’m at a loss as to how Johan Santana doesn’t meet that definition. Or are you saying the Twins didn’t acquire someone who was already an ace when they were acquired? Not sure MacPhail really did either. Sure, Jack Morris pitched like an ace in 1991, but he definitely did not in 1989 or 1990 which is a large part of the reason the Tigers showed little interest in keeping him. The prevailing wisdom was that he was washed up. Smiley maybe I suppose. But that was a salary dump out of Pittsburgh.

 

I guess I could have clarified but I was referring to a ready-made ace, someone who could have put a contending team over the top so as they'd be an overwhelming favorite going into the post season; CC Sabathia, Zach Greinke, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay.

 

And if Morris and Smiley weren't that guy, I really don't care as I'm not trying to promote a who's-better-than-who GM discussion so much as I want my favorite team to start behaving differently. More aggressively for sure; quality over quantity from here on out please.

[gunnarthor]

 

Just let that sink in for a moment, considering what this team has gone through over the first month and change. Yeah, the central has been garbage so far, but never apologize for that. Getting in the postseason is all that matters as it is a complete crapshoot once you’re in.

Optimism? I hope you see what you started!

[alarp33]

 

And the Twins had all the momentum through the first half inning of the game.

 

And then the entire team melted down. That game probably hinged on a couple of pitches that the Twins' two best pitchers didn't execute, pitchers who had some of their worst starts of the entire season in that one game.

 

Inversely, the Yankees' best pitcher melted down.

 

With two teams who both won 85-90 games, any single game is going to be close to a coin flip because baseball, on a single game basis, is crazy-unpredictable. The Yankees were favored because they were the better team but I bet there were loads of bookies crapping their pants after Severino was yanked after getting all of one out.

 

If the baseball postseason wasn't that unpredictable, you wouldn't see the two best starters on one team melt down at the same time the best starter on the opposing team is also melting down.

 

That game was the Wild West and either team could have won after that first inning. Except the Twins continued to melt down while the Yankees righted the ship. The inverse could have just as easily been true.

 

If only it were as simple as saying each team had their best pitcher going and calling it even.  1) The Twins "best pitcher" was significantly worse than most teams in baseballs "best pitcher".  2) The Yankees bullpen was SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Twins bullpen. 

 

-245 is not a coin flip.  That doesn't mean the Twins can't win, but it is not nearly as simple as calling that a coin flip.  That's why the only WC World Series champ in recent years just happened to be able to start Madison Bumgarner which seemed like every other game that postseason run.  

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Sure, you can tilt odds in your favor but the Twins lost to some inferior teams in the 2000s. They already had the odds tilted and still didn’t pull off a win.*

*not making excuses for the complete lack of deadline action some of those years

 

They had some good teams, but they didn't put their thumb on the scale anything like most of the teams that have won the WS most of this past century.

[Mike Sixel]

It's more fun when they win. So, despite the lack of pretty.... It was good they won.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If only it were as simple as saying each team had their best pitcher going and calling it even.  1) The Twins "best pitcher" was significantly worse than most teams in baseballs "best pitcher".  2) The Yankees bullpen was SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Twins bullpen. 

 

-245 is not a coin flip.  That doesn't mean the Twins can't win, but it is not nearly as simple as calling that a coin flip.  That's why the only WC World Series champ in recent years just happened to be able to start Madison Bumgarner which seemed like every other game that postseason run.  

We're talking past each other a bit here. I have repeatedly and intentionally used the phrase "close to a coin flip", not "a coin flip".

 

Given the two teams' rosters, home field, and win-loss record, the Yankees had an advantage.

 

But what was that advantage? 55%/45%? 60%/40%?

 

That's pretty damned close to a coin flip. Unlike the NBA or NFL where you can pretty accurately predict a win because the odds can go as high as 80%/20% or even 90%/10% in extreme situations, a single baseball game is pretty close to a coin flip.

[gil4]

 

I’m at a loss as to how Johan Santana doesn’t meet that definition. Or are you saying the Twins didn’t acquire someone who was already an ace when they were acquired? Not sure MacPhail really did either. Sure, Jack Morris pitched like an ace in 1991, but he definitely did not in 1989 or 1990 which is a large part of the reason the Tigers showed little interest in keeping him. The prevailing wisdom was that he was washed up. Smiley maybe I suppose. But that was a salary dump out of Pittsburgh.

With Santana they didn't acquire and ace, they got a lottery ticket that turned into an ace. You make a fair point about Morris, but he had been an ace before and the Twins were able to buy low.  Smiley was a legit top of the rotation guy for a couple of years, including 1992 with the Twins. 

 

When we had Santana, nobody was saying we need to go out and get an ace.  The Twins were just not very good at evaluating their weaknesses and aggressively fixing them.

 

There has been some bad luck along the way - especially concussions (Koskie, Morneau, and Mauer) and it still pains me to think what could have been if Liriano hadn't hurt his elbow.  That was such a great team to watch before he got hurt. 

 

 

[Danchat]

I'm not convinced that Cleveland is going to continue to be so mediocre. I believe they'll rebound and easily win the division.

 

Conversely I'm not sure about this Twins team. I think their only chance at a shot at having a deep playoff run is to go on a hot streak from August to October and ride the momentum. But there's so much more baseball to be played and it's hard to know how our injured or suspended players will do when they return, so it's hard to say anything for certain.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Both. The WC game is almost complete luck, as one guy can lose or win the game.

 

A seven game series is less dependent on luck, but it's still a significant factor. Especially if the series goes seven games... that final game, like almost any baseball game, is pretty close to a coin flip.

I don't think the WC is as luck dependent as you, but I do hate the fact it's only one game, especially in a 162 game season where every matchup is a series. I buy the "any team can advance," theory because statistically any team can beat any other, and a one game series certainly favors the lesser club. That said, the Twins would have been significant underdogs against any AL playoff team last season. I would have a very difficult time attributing a Twins loss to any of those teams as "unlucky."

 

Are we talking about doing away with the postseason, playing a balanced schedule, and then crowning a champ based on record? I'm not sure we can ask for more than a 7 game series, and I'm also unsure why luck is a larger factor in baseball than other sports.