Time to worry about hitting?

[caninatl04]

Let me begin with the acknowledgement that spring training statistics are, at best, fuzzy. But am I the only one worried about the Twins’ aggregate ST batting statistics? They are around 28-30th in every offensive category. The ST argument might work if one could show that the Twins used a disproportionate number of minor leaguers in their line ups, but I’m not sure if that’s true.

Plus, their starters were no-hit today and have scored very few runs recently.

[Blake]

No.

 

Upon further reflection, No.

[Blake]

Because I was a bit abrupt, let me explain about hitting and Spring Training.

 

Generally, pitchers are ahead of hitters in Spring Training, in that pitchers tend to dominate because hitters just don't have their timing down yet. 

 

Once in a while, you'll see a lot of balls hit around the park in Spring Training. That doesn't necessarily mean the pitcher was getting lit up or the hitters were having a great day.

 

What the box score doesn't always tell you is that pitchers, especially early in Spring Training, will go out and pitch and work exclusively on one pitch.

 

If an MLB player knows what pitch to expect, and they will figure it out in a hurry, it's going to get hit. 

[gunnarthor]

No need to worry. The Twins will have a top three offense when it's all said and done this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just pretend Spring Training stats don't exist. You'll be happier for it.

[Brandon]

Buxton is near the top of the leaderboard in steals if that helps.

[caninatl04]

Because I was a bit abrupt, let me explain about hitting and Spring Training.

 

Generally, pitchers are ahead of hitters in Spring Training, in that pitchers tend to dominate because hitters just don't have their timing down yet. 

 

Once in a while, you'll see a lot of balls hit around the park in Spring Training. That doesn't necessarily mean the pitcher was getting lit up or the hitters were having a great day.

 

What the box score doesn't always tell you is that pitchers, especially early in Spring Training, will go out and pitch and work exclusively on one pitch.

 

If an MLB player knows what pitch to expect, and they will figure it out in a hurry, it's going to get hit.

 

But wouldn’t this be true for all 30 teams? I do think I’m doing an apples to 29 other apples comparison here.

[Halsey Hall]

I'm concerned.  The Twins certainly didn't hit any pitchers working on pitches, or did they.  How many games did they have 3 hits or less?  Just poor hitting all spring. 

[Blake]

 

But wouldn’t this be true for all 30 teams? I do think I’m doing an apples to 29 other apples comparison here.

Seriously, this is a non-issue. Spring training games mean nothing once the season starts.

 

I wish I could tell you Spring Training is a definite harbinger of things to come but, it isn't.

 

For instance, I believe the Twins had a phenomenal Spring Training record going into the 2016 season.

 

Okay, I looked it up and the Twins were 19-11 in Spring Training that year. We all know how that year turned out.

 

Anyway, yes, I know record and batting are two different things but, I think it shows we, as fans, need to take Spring Training with a grain of salt.

 

And, if you look at Houston, they were 15-15 in Spring Training last year, while the Angels were 21-14.

 

Spring Training is fun to follow and MLB uses it to try and create buzz, but, in the end, the games themselves don't really indicate how a team is going to do during the regular season. 

 

By the way, even with what appears to be trouble hitting the ball, the Twins are just 1 game under 500 in Spring Training. Which means the pitching has been doing the job during Spring Training.

 

But, it doesn't mean the pitching will carry over into the regular season.

 

Just like the lack of hitting doesn't mean that will carry over into the regular season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm concerned.  The Twins certainly didn't hit any pitchers working on pitches, or did they.  How many games did they have 3 hits or less?  Just poor hitting all spring. 

But I know you go to Ft Myers quite often. How many times did the Twins light up Spring Training and then go on to post terrible seasons?

 

Hitters work on things, pitchers work on things. Sometimes, the lineups and split squads end up making a spring look bad but really, it means so little.

 

Because, as we all know, a Luke Hughes or Ryan Lamarre do not a regular season make.

[Thrylos]

The only regular who I might have a mild concern with is Rosario because he missed some time and this was a shorter than usual ST.  I saw him at the back fields yesterday and his timing seems slightly off.  Could be fine by Thursday.

 

Other than that no worries.  I think that all the young players (Buxton, Kepler, Sano) improved from last season and Adrianza might be the surprise of the season.

[ckrolak]

All I can say is that we'll find out soon enough.

[Old Twins Cap]

Dozier is fine. 

Mauer will hit. 

Morrison is a pro. 

Sano is a monster. 

Escobar is a stick. 

The young outfield will play. 

Castro has to be better than last year.

 

I just talked myself out of being concerned.

[Jham]

I'm a little concerned. Our success last year may or may not be sustainable. A lot of things broke right for us. We've added some pieces but our margin for error is still very thin.

 

Psychologically, it's hard not to let down slightly after an emotional unexpected run. Culturally, the Twins have perhaps a bit of a history in coming out of the gates less than fully prepared.

 

After an emotional run falling just short of the playoffs 3 years back, we came out the next season 0-9. Anecdotally, Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins would routinely come in throwing bp. Grossman claims he only needs 10 ab. We've routinely come out of the gates with pitchers less than fully stretched. Requiring early overuse of the pen often leading to roster moves and crunches.

 

I don't think this team has enough track record to assume they'll be able to crank it up as soon as the games matter. Glenn and Nathan could do it somewhat, but I think that's the exception. Threat level orange, imo. I do not knoe if the team is preparing to battle against regression or just assuming they'll pick right up where they left off.

[MN_ExPat]

 

But wouldn’t this be true for all 30 teams? I do think I’m doing an apples to 29 other apples comparison here.

It's ok to be concerned.   To feel trepidation is just the human psyche reacting to an unknown situation or lack of stimulus or information and attempting to fill that in.

 

In the end, the Twins have too much talent to stink (that doesn't mean that they can't wind up having an average or "meh" season), they'll be fine.   Have a little faith.   Trust me, God doesn't mind if you send a few prayers his way for our favorite baseball players

 

[jokin]

 

 

 Am I the only one worried about the Twins’ aggregate ST batting statistics? I do think I’m doing an apples to 29 other apples comparison here.

 

 

No.

 

Upon further reflection, No.

 

Actually.... "Yes"... You are.

 

Just look in the mirror and repeat 10 times.... "ST stats are absolutely, positively meaningless.... Not like apples, not like oranges, not like kumquats."

 

As many have noted previously, and using your own analogy, all of the myriad of ST-only variables inherent in spring-time exhibition play make this analogy axiomatic:

 

"ST Baseball is to MLB in-season Baseball as Raspberries are to Rutabagas."

 

If this weren't a truism, then Aaron Hicks with his nearly career .900 ST OPS should already be a perennial All Star... except for the fact that when the games actually mean something, he's actually a barely above replacement level .687 OPS.

[Loosey]

I'm not that concerned.  

 

Even with the starters.  They don't play every day, they don't play full games.  There is no rhythm.  Once the season starts they will play 9 innings every day get 4-5 in game at bats every day.  Plus they won't be working on things.  

[Doomtints]

 

Because I was a bit abrupt, let me explain about hitting and Spring Training.

 

Generally, pitchers are ahead of hitters in Spring Training, in that pitchers tend to dominate because hitters just don't have their timing down yet.

 

Why are ERAs higher in spring training if the pitchers are better than the hitters?

 

The real issue with spring training statistics is that the bell curve, or the normalization, isn't there yet. Players on both sides of the ball are all over the spectrum.

 

If a rookie isn't good in ST, that's a concern. Beyond that it's hard to know what the numbers mean.

[yarnivek1972]

Dozier is fine.

Mauer will hit.

Morrison is a pro.

Sano is a monster.

Escobar is a stick.

The young outfield will play.

Castro has to be better than last year.

 

I just talked myself out of being concerned.

Castro is coming off the second best year of his career and best by far since since 2013 offensively. Why would he have to be better?

[Doubles]

I'm not any more concerned about a lack of offense than I would be hyped up if they were lighting it up at the plate.    Either way, it's spring training.    Come Thursday at 2:05pm, none of it matters either way.

 

The only spring training concern I have every year is health.    Rosario's is a bit of a concern to me at this point.

[Puckett34]

Small sample size.    Heading in to ST, was most worried about Sano.      Seems to be fine.    Rosario is a little concerning, but we'll see how he is the closer to 100% he gets.

[bighat]

OP - I know what you mean. It seems like every time I checked a Twins score this spring, it was a 4-1 loss or a 2-1 win. Escobar, Grossman and Dozier have all had a ton of ABs. They're all hovering around the Mendoza line right now, between .188 - .204.  Hard to get excited about that.

 

I'm a little concerned, but not freaked out. What the Twins really need to avoid is to come out flat. That 0-9 start to 2016 was such a terrible blow, the season was over before it started. I'd welcome another 6-0 start this year!

[gocgo]

If it were the end of April, I wouldn't be concerned.  Baseball is such a marathon.  One good month can propel a team from .440 winning percentage to .500+ winning percentage.  .440 doesn't sniff the playoffs while .500+ means you play meaningful games in September.

 

So, no...not concerned with spring training anything other than having guys healthy.

[jimmer]

People had written off the Wild's playoff hopes after like 5 games or so. Way too early.

 

Preseason isn't a time to worry about an offense that we have already seen be quite explosive when the games count.

[Dantes929]

About the same level of concern I would have if they were #1 in ST.   You want them to have confidence but baseball is so cyclical that a super hot ST means it will probably shortly swing back  to a swoon.  So often when the Twins are hot around the all star break I find the break annoying because it breaks the momentum.  Sometimes I look forward to it for the same in reverse situation.   ST is done.   They get a couple days to shake off the stats from the poor showing and start fresh.   

[mazeville]

Do not look at spring training stats and you'll be better for it.

 

I think there are issues to be concerned about, though. The biggest is that a lot of things have gone wrong this offseason. A lot of things have gone right, to be sure, but:

 

* Miguel Sano's long recovery, surgery, weight and the harassment investigation; he might not have been punished, but there's concern there.

* Santana injury

* Polanco's suspension

* Rosario's arm problems. 

 

That's a lot of negativity. Hopefully it's nothing. But that group of issues concerns me more than meaningless spring training stats. 

[jkcarew]

1. health

2. Rodney

3. middle-long relief

4. Infield defense/range

5. Starting pitching

6. Hitting

7. Rochester's winning percentage

 

Yes, I'm worried about the hitting.

[Rosterman]

Opening Day all teams are equal. You find out who has the #1 starting pitchers, who then turn it over to a bullpen that is suspicious. By the time batters get what will hopefully be the final lineups for the betetr part of the season, they go over stuff with the coaches, have real batting practices, and don't have to worry about hurting themselves i  meaningless "practice" games. Remember, these are practice games. Some players need to show what they MIGHT be capable of doing, not only for a major league job, but a place in the minors. Some work on one thing for a week or two. But they still take batting practice, still play pick-up hitting and throwing.

 

Opening Day starts the whole thing again, when you play your peers and fight for standings in your division. Someone will win, someone will lose...that is a certain. No more tie games.

 

 

 

[caninatl04]

If the Twins score four or more runs today, I will shut up.

[Doctor Wu]

 

If it were the end of April, I wouldn't be concerned.  Baseball is such a marathon.  One good month can propel a team from .440 winning percentage to .500+ winning percentage.  .440 doesn't sniff the playoffs while .500+ means you play meaningful games in September.

 

So, no...not concerned with spring training anything other than having guys healthy.

Well, if it were the end of April and the same "top" players had the same low stats, well yeah, then I'd start to feel a bit concerned. Sure, some guys are slow starters and Spring Training is what it is, but I'd still feel a bit more confident if a few guys besides Morrison and LaMarre (and Nick Gordon!) were hitting the crap out of the ball. Seems like the Twins hit a lot less homers in ST this year. I know, that's not an accurate yardstick, but still ... gotta hope more of these guys are ready to rock next week.