Article: Twins Acquire Two Prospects For International Bonus Money

[ThejacKmp]

Not sure what your point is because you're arguing something that has nothing to do with what I asked. Did the Twins get a good deal? Were these players worth the lost $2M in "opportunity cost" (or whatever term you or anyone else choose to use)? Or should the Twins have used the money to pick up some international free agents? Did the new front office just help other teams more than what the Twins got in return?

I know the term seems like nitpicking but it's not. The Twins did not send $1 million to the Angels and Mariners - there was no wire transfer of funds or anything like that. They simply traded their right to spend $1 million on international players. The best analogy would be if you're at Circus Pizza and you have won 400 prize tickets and you traded them to a friend for his roller blades. You haven't lost money, you've lost a currency you can only spend in a specific system with certain rules.

 

That matters for two reasons:

 

(1) First of all, the state of that system. Late in the year, that international money isn't worth as much since the cupboard is pretty bare. (In our circus pizza analogy, lots of other kids redeemed their tickets for toys already so the good toys are gone). The Twins likely wouldn't have been able to use that international money to get as quality of prospects as they got via trade.

 

(2) Secondly, the Twins still have that $2 million they would have spent (since they never sent actual money, just the right to spend money). That $2 million in the budget can now be used on free agents or scouting or a kickass trip for employees to Circus Pizza. That's where opportunity cost comes in - the Twins have the opportunity to use those funds elsewhere.

 

It's a good trade, especially if the Twins use the remainder to sign Marte at a lower price as is rumored. They basically will have traded Marte at a high price for Marte at a low price + 2 B/C prospects + 2 million to spend elsewhere.

[drjim]

 

Underwhelming, but not sure what else they could do if they didn't like the braves players. Once they took the money away from a poor person, I wondered what their plans were for it

 

Twins aren't a charity. They probably shouldn't go all in on a guy with vision issues.

[drjim]

 

To recap...

• The batch of prospects freed up from Atlanta was "only" 12 guys.
• Based on the apparent weakness of the Angels minor league system, they may not be the best judge of talent. If they spent $2.2 million on Maitan, he may not be worth that.
• If the "best" prospect is not worth $2.2 million and there were only 12 new guys for 30 teams to go after, it seems reasonable to think that the Twins were going to have a hard time spending the entire $3+ million within the needed timeframe

Instead, the Twins got...

• A "free" 3rd rounder that likely fell (according to one report, apparently, from as high as the low 1st round)
• A "free" 5th rounder at a position that doesn't have much depth
• And still have a bit of international money to spend on someone from the batch of Braves prospects, if desired. Or to trade to one of the other teams in the Ohtani derby. 

That sounds like a win to me. The only question is whether they might have gotten even more from the Angels or Mariners, but I'm glad to trust the Falvine wisdom on this. I doubt they only made two calls on this.

 

It is definitely a win. They received real assets for the space they traded away. And what they got seems to be in line with what the space goes for in other trades.

 

Once the Marte deal fell through, they did have limited options, and it is not outrageous to take a pass on all of the Braves prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins aren't a charity. They probably shouldn't go all in on a guy with vision issues.

They signed a contract. That they voided to try to get ohtani. Do people really think he had vision issues so bad he can't play baseball? He may have vision issues, but anyone want to bet on if he signs with someone and plays next year?

[drjim]

 

They signed a contract. That they voided to try to get ohtani. Do people really think he had vision issues so bad he can't play baseball? He may have vision issues, but anyone want to bet on if he signs with someone and plays next year?

 

He didn't sign a contract, he had an agreement that was voided because he failed a physical. This isn't unprecedented in international guys, even this exact situation.

 

They wouldn't be foolish enough to void this contract without cause for a really small chance at Ohtani. Wouldn't be worth the future blowback in that market. Looks like there is even a small chance that they might sign Marte for a reduced rate. 

[Mike Sixel]

Why would they sign him, if he can't play baseball because he failed his physical?

[SGL]

We spent a million dollars apiece for two prospects that signed earlier for a combined 1.3 million????

[Mike Sixel]

We spent a million dollars apiece for two prospects that signed earlier for a combined 1.3 million????

No. They spent no money at all. They sent the right to spend money away. If they freely there were no good prospects to sign, this kind of trade makes sense.

[drjim]

 

Why would they sign him, if he can't play baseball because he failed his physical?

 

Because it is a much more acceptable risk for the team at a much lower number. I don't think he *can't* play baseball, just not very likely to be successful at higher levels with his vision situation.

 

I know you realize all this.

[Hollywood42]

 

See I would have them flipped. Catcher guy interests me but I'm not interested in an outfielder with zero power and can't field. Can't possibly be ahead of Rooker. Rooker was mashing.

 

Where'd you read that? I've great that he's a great athlete, good power and speed, and that he could be a perennial 20-20 guy in the future. Only bad grade he has is his arm, which is understandable given an injury (with surgery, if I recall correctly), 1 or 2 years ago

[Mike Sixel]

Because it is a much more acceptable risk for the team at a much lower number. I don't think he *can't* play baseball, just not very likely to be successful at higher levels with his vision situation.

 

I know you realize all this.

We won't agree. They reneged on the deal to try to get ohtani. Not exactly the moral high road.

[ashbury]

Why would they sign him, if he can't play baseball because he failed his physical?

Mod note: Mike, and everyone, please don't use strawman arguments like this one.

[drjim]

 

We won't agree. They reneged on the deal to try to get ohtani. Not exactly the moral high road.

 

What are you basing that on? The deal was voided months before it was clear Ohtani was coming to the majors. It just became public when prospect writers were discussing total international space available.

 

But if true, it would be a moral problem and it would backfire going forward in the international market.

[ashbury]

We won't agree. They reneged on the deal to try to get ohtani. Not exactly the moral high road.

I'm with you on the optics of this. I am in the camp generally hoping they don't sign him; I don't want questions about "my" team putting the squeeze on players financially. The news about "no hard feelings on either side" suggests it could happen though.

 

When the news of the contract voiding broke, the Baseball America article mentioned a similar case from about a decade ago; a different team signed him for half a million instead, and afterward his career quietly fizzled. I don't hope for bad luck like that for this player, but it's a way this could end up playing out.

[twinsfanstreif]

MLB.com ranks Pearson 22 in the Twins system. The mariners prospect is not listed in our top 30

 

Didn't MLB.com have him as the Mariners #10 prospect? Now he's not even in our top 30?! Is our system that good or is the M's system that bad? I think they had Pearson ranked quite a bit higher in the Angel's system too

[Thrylos]

Wonder whether there would have been such a scrutiny if Jacob Pearce and David Banuelos were IFA and the Twins have given each $1 mil bonus.  Because this is pretty much what they did, other than the $2M was opportunity vs. actual cost.

 

I think that these guys come with some critical flaws, but I would venture an educated guess saying that they are better than any IFA available before July, including Atlanta's freed agents bunch.

 

Pearce has Ben Revere written all over him.  Similar speed, equally "strong" arm, bit less hit tool, bit more power tool.  He also has second base written all over him.

 

Banuelos is interesting. Allegedly he cannot hit. BA has Rene Rivera and Jose Molina as comparables.  He hit well enough in college to be a First team All American.  Had a .280/.369/.432 career line in college, which is not horrible.  His defense is allegedly phenomenal.  Started his pro career in ss A ball, which is a bit too high probably.  Regardless, he can hit better than Navarretto and maybe Rortvedt 

 

Neither is a top 20 prospect for the Twins, but they are top 60 prospects, and the Twins as far as catchers go, had only 2 of those (Garver not included)

 

Great move

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by Thrylos

[Otto von Ballpark]

What are you basing that on? The deal was voided months before it was clear Ohtani was coming to the majors. It just became public when prospect writers were discussing total international space available.

Anybody know when it was voided? The Twins signed him back in July, and international cap numbers were discussed throughout the rest of the season. Marte did need to get a visa after that before the physical, not sure when that happened. It was pretty clear Otani was trying to come stateside a month ago, I am not sure Marte's deal could have been voided for "months" prior to that with no announcement.

 

I am not accusing them of anything, but it does seem weird to void the contract of your top international signee and just not tell anyone, even if only for a couple weeks. (Even weirder if it was really a couple months.)

Edited December 7, 2017 by spycake

[Dman]

 

Why would they sign him, if he can't play baseball because he failed his physical?

Yeah I am not sure they will want to sign him.  I think the report was he had 20\100 vision in one eye.  It didn't sound like something that was easily correctable.  I haven't heard of other teams being overly interested and no one has jumped on grabbing him yet.  It would have had to be pretty serious for the Twins to void the contract as they have a good reputation for being fair.  If they do sign him I would think it would be for significantly less now and more as a favor than thinking he is still a top prospect.  Just my opinion based on limited knowledge.

[ThejacKmp]

 

That they voided to try to get ohtani.

 

I think this is the mistaken assumption you've made - you're assuming a causation when we don't even have a correlation. I think the Marte void was separate from going after Ohtani.

 

No one else has gone after Marte (including the Yankees who have more money than the Twins and aren't in on Ohtani) so the eye thing must be serious (and with how cheap and state-of-the-art Lasik is today, it has to be something more than "he has 20/100 vision"). Plus, if the Twins liked Marte enough to give him top money, they wouldn't give it up for the very small chance they had of getting Ohtani to come to MN.

 

There just seems to be way more of a story here. Assuming causation or correlation between the Marte voiding and the Ohtani sweepstakes seems like a stretch.

[nicksaviking]

The Marte situation reminds me of the Brady Aiken situation a few years ago when everyone was ripping on the Astros for trying to screw over the #1 pick and making him take a minimum deal due to "bogus" medical evaluations, then they turned out to be right as he quickly blew out his elbow. 

[drjim]

One other thing I found out digging into this is that if the Twins sign Marte after voiding a previous contract he is immediately eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not placed on the 40 man roster.

 

I also found out I was incorrect. The contract was voided, so it must have been signed before the physical. I figured there would be an agreement a contract would be subject to a physical.

[drjim]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/wagner-mateo-signs-with-arizona-10012/#YwCe45jAmJH5j1et.97

 

This is the comparable. Cardinals voided a contract with Wagner Mateo in 2009, he later signed with Arizona and flamed out pretty quickly.

[Brandon]

I was hoping we could use those funds to help aquire a reliever. we probably woukd need to add a propect too. but....

 

I agree with John and am glad they were drafted this year. Pearson appears to be the Angels version of Enlow. getting a player who dropped for signability issues. The Catcher is the new Stewart for our org. nice glove no hit catcher.

[drjim]

Twins official on Banuelos:

 

[gunnarthor]

 

The Marte situation reminds me of the Brady Aiken situation a few years ago when everyone was ripping on the Astros for trying to screw over the #1 pick and making him take a minimum deal due to "bogus" medical evaluations, then they turned out to be right as he quickly blew out his elbow. 

That's not quite right. People were pissed that the Astros were using the injury as a way to secure a third player (after Jacob Nix) named Mac Marshall out of Aiken's bonus. The medical issue they saw was similar to other picks and those picks had their bonuses lowered by several hundred thousand dollars, not 1.5m, which coincidentally happened to be Marshall's demand. Nix and Marshall's agreements were therefore locked into a third party (Aiken). Nix filed his grievance against the Astros and won (Astros settled for 1m+ before the arbitrator ruled against them). 

 

I'm hoping that the Twins didn't **** over Marte on the hopes of getting a better prospect but I think they did. 

[Dman]

 

 

I'm hoping that the Twins didn't **** over Marte on the hopes of getting a better prospect but I think they did. 

 

But if that theory were true and Marte such an excellent player then why haven't teams jumped on signing him?  To me the theory the Twins were less than honest doesn't make sense at all.  If he is good and there really is no medical issue some team should have him by now.  So far crickets.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm with you on the optics of this. I am in the camp generally hoping they don't sign him; I don't want questions about "my" team putting the squeeze on players financially. The news about "no hard feelings on either side" suggests it could happen though.

 

 

The fact that there aren't any hard feelings, should be evidence that the team was not putting the squeeze on him.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'm with you on the optics of this. I am in the camp generally hoping they don't sign him; I don't want questions about "my" team putting the squeeze on players financially. The news about "no hard feelings on either side" suggests it could happen though.

 

When the news of the contract voiding broke, the Baseball America article mentioned a similar case from about a decade ago; a different team signed him for half a million instead, and afterward his career quietly fizzled. I don't hope for bad luck like that for this player, but it's a way this could end up playing out.

Agreed the optics are certainly complicating the matter. If Marte does resign it'll raise more questions. Obviously it's all conjecture at this point but: 

 

Why would the Twins be interested in resigning him if the eye condition is as serious as others are convinced it is? If they're certain he won't be a big league player why waste the remaining money resigning him? 

 

I can't get past the timing; the apparent non release of the contract being voided and the announcement for the availability of the money coinciding with Ohtani making his way to the states just seems odd. 

 

If the Twins are going to resign him doesn't that hint that the eye condition might not have been as disastrous as portrayed? If that's the case can the actions of the Twins be viewed as some sort of tampering? Marte's value clearly would have been affected and potentially the reason other clubs have been hesitant to sign him. It's clearly the most sinister scenario but is it the craziest thing in the world to think a team would sacrifice a player like Marte in order to have a shot at Ohtani? 

 

Another part I can't get past though is that if Ohtani had decided to come to MN this wouldn't have been an issue. Even if the Twins had f***ed this kid over the Ohtani signing would have overshadowed anything done to get him here. I can't I wouldn't have overlooked it myself. 

 

Or you know, it could just be a condition the Twins aren't comfortable with so they decided to move on, i.e. business as usual. 

[ashbury]

The fact that there aren't any hard feelings, should be evidence that the team was not putting the squeeze on him.

Assuming words match feelings. If he's getting good advice, he may understand that the $3M is gone, but high six-figures may be attainable if he doesn't burn bridges. That realization wouldn't erase a feeling of having been squeezed.

 

I don't know either way. I just don't read much into that statement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But if that theory were true and Marte such an excellent player then why haven't teams jumped on signing him? To me the theory the Twins were less than honest doesn't make sense at all. If he is good and there really is no medical issue some team should have him by now. So far crickets.

Well, I don't know how long Marte has been available -- when exactly was the contract voided? And the international market has shrunk/slowed considerably this time of year , so perhaps Marte can take his time deciding. I mean, if he just had a $3 mil deal voided, he may not have much incentive to jump on the first $1 mil offer. (In theory, could he even take his chances next July?)