Quintana to the Cubs

[spanman2]

 

As a Cubs fan, I'll gladly take this deal and with the control they have over Quintana and the price tag this is much easier to swallow than trading Torres, McKinney for 3 months of Chapman.

 

The Cubs still have Jeimer Candelerio who's not a slouch either and has no positional availability on the club as well.

I would say one of those deals where both organizations came out of it quite pleased with the outcome.

[USAFChief]

Ignoring the question of should the Twins make such a deal, the more interesting question to me is could they.

 

It's somewhat questionable if they have the assets to match this deal.

 

And that, folks, is a pretty huge and damning statement about Terry Ryan's most recent GM tenure.  Probably even worse than the Twins W/L record.  

 

And the biggest problem, IMO, was their refusal to play the international free agent game the way other teams did.  

[spanman2]

 

Twins couldn't match that, no way.

Agree 100% No bleeping way we could/would do that deal.  The organization wouldn't even be in the same stratosphere vs. what the Cubs gave up.  Really paints a picture as to the asking price for controllable starting pitching via trade.

[Don Walcott]

*#&%ing Quintana . . . that creep can roll.

[jimmer]

 

Agree 100% No bleeping way we could/would do that deal.  The organization wouldn't even be in the same stratosphere vs. what the Cubs gave up.  Really paints a picture as to the asking price for controllable starting pitching via trade.

Especially with how little he is getting paid in relation to the value he provides.  He is very much underpaid by MLB standards. Between his immense talent and his contract, he was worth every bit of what the W Sox got (if not a bit more)

[mazeville]

 

The Twins really didn't have the assets to net trades like this.

 

They had some assets to trade.

 

To go back to 2012, at random: They could have traded Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Josh Willingham at the deadline. They refused. 

 

They could have traded other players at the deadline in each year from 2011 through 2014. They did very little of that, beyond the dual Span-Revere trades. 

 

While I'm not so stupid as to pretend that the Twins had anything of the caliber of a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana -- not even close -- they could well have traded Perkins when his value was highest for a pretty good return, and they didn't do it. There were points at which they could have traded Joe Mauer and his full contract to the Boston Red Sox (pre-concussion) and they didn't do it. 

 

They could have traded Phil Hughes at the deadline in 2014 and he would have fetched a ton given his performance that year. He had a sub-4 ERA and set a league record for control that year, and was under team control for two more years at a reasonable rate. 

 

As I said, they never had White Sox-level assets. But don't tell me the Twins didn't have assets to trade. Don't tell me that they had "reasons" not to trade guys. There are always reasons not to trade players. When you lose 90-plus games for five years in six, you make tough choices. The Twins didn't do that.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

And the biggest problem, IMO, was their refusal to play the international free agent game the way other teams did.  

That's not on Ryan anymore than Levine is to blame for not getting Luis Robert. Ownership has never shown that it will go beyond what limits mlb has put in place. In the old Mauer thread, someone even posted an old quote of Pohlad's where he said it was important to fight against increased money to amateur players. 

 

Regardless of who is GM, the Twins will not sign a big FA guy or win a bidding war for a top international FA. We have to hope for guys like Santana to play above his contract and/or for guys like Park to be better than expected.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Pale Hose will be very good in a few years. Oh Nooooooooooooooooo! The Hawk will then have something to crow about. Noooooooooooooooo!

[jimmer]

The Pale Hose will be very good in a few years. Oh Nooooooooooooooooo! The Hawk will then have something to crow about. Noooooooooooooooo!

Without pitching, when will WE truly be very good?

 

and at least the W Sox have a W Series win this century :-)

[Mr. Brooks]

They had some assets to trade.

 

To go back to 2012, at random: They could have traded Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Josh Willingham at the deadline. They refused.

 

They could have traded other players at the deadline in each year from 2011 through 2014. They did very little of that, beyond the dual Span-Revere trades.

 

While I'm not so stupid as to pretend that the Twins had anything of the caliber of a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana -- not even close -- they could well have traded Perkins when his value was highest for a pretty good return, and they didn't do it. There were points at which they could have traded Joe Mauer and his full contract to the Boston Red Sox (pre-concussion) and they didn't do it.

 

They could have traded Phil Hughes at the deadline in 2014 and he would have fetched a ton given his performance that year. He had a sub-4 ERA and set a league record for control that year, and was under team control for two more years at a reasonable rate.

 

As I said, they never had White Sox-level assets. But don't tell me the Twins didn't have assets to trade. Don't tell me that they had "reasons" not to trade guys. There are always reasons not to trade players. When you lose 90-plus games for five years in six, you make tough choices. The Twins didn't do that.

I agree with most of this.

But, Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause.

Trading him has never been an option.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's not on Ryan anymore than Levine is to blame for not getting Luis Robert. Ownership has never shown that it will go beyond what limits mlb has put in place. In the old Mauer thread, someone even posted an old quote of Pohlad's where he said it was important to fight against increased money to amateur players. 

 

Regardless of who is GM, the Twins will not sign a big FA guy or win a bidding war for a top international FA. We have to hope for guys like Santana to play above his contract and/or for guys like Park to be better than expected.

 

see, I saw him say "their" and thought he was talking about the system, not one person. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The run differential is very real but a little deceptive. There are two kinds of sequencing - luck and intentional. The Twins have three decent starters. They have three decent relievers. Their use is intentional. When they are involved, the Twins tend to win. When they aren't, the Twins get hammered. It makes a difference considering the team's outlook.

 

The back end of the bullpen gives up a lot of runs are in games that aren't close. I like using Fangraphs shutdowns and meltdowns to measure RP when it counts. A shutdown is given if the RP increases win probability by more than 6 %, a meltdown is -6 %. The Twins top three (Kintzler, Rogers and Duffey) are 50-17 SD/MD in their appearances and 22-32 in others. Houston's top 3 (Devenski, Giles and Harris) are at 47-15 SD/MD, with the others at 18-22. The problem is that the Twins are bad after the top three but the run differential is exaggerated by the sheer number of runs given up when the game is already lost. 

 

The Twins are 24-18 in starts from Santana, Berrios and Mejia. It's the start of a good rotation. The back end sucks. When the back end starts, the team usually falls behind fast. They bring in back end RP and get crushed even more. The Twins are 17-25 and have been outscored by 70 runs in games decided by 4 runs or more (no shutdown opportunity). This is the result of having a non-luck sequence of widely varying talent.

 

Falvey and Levine have some work to do between now and the start of 2018 but it's doable. One quality SP and 2 RP will go a long way. Some help will come from the minors but they need acquire pitching too.  And I expect the young hitters to keep improving.

 

On the other hand, it's easier to be a pessimist. Let's blow it up! 2021, here they come!

 

and other teams don't have a similar situation (other than a handful of great teams)?

 

As Bob pointed out on thread recently, you can't take out one half of this equation, as if the other sides of blow outs didn't matter as much as the bad side did/does.

 

As for your last sentence, the mods asked it to stop, right?

[Mr. Brooks]

The run differential is very real but a little deceptive. There are two kinds of sequencing - luck and intentional. The Twins have three decent starters. They have three decent relievers. Their use is intentional. When they are involved, the Twins tend to win. When they aren't, the Twins get hammered. It makes a difference considering the team's outlook.

 

The back end of the bullpen gives up a lot of runs are in games that aren't close. I like using Fangraphs shutdowns and meltdowns to measure RP when it counts. A shutdown is given if the RP increases win probability by more than 6 %, a meltdown is -6 %. The Twins top three (Kintzler, Rogers and Duffey) are 50-17 SD/MD in their appearances and 22-32 in others. Houston's top 3 (Devenski, Giles and Harris) are at 47-15 SD/MD, with the others at 18-22. The problem is that the Twins are bad after the top three but the run differential is exaggerated by the sheer number of runs given up when the game is already lost.

 

The Twins are 24-18 in starts from Santana, Berrios and Mejia. It's the start of a good rotation. The back end sucks. When the back end starts, the team usually falls behind fast. They bring in back end RP and get crushed even more. The Twins are 17-25 and have been outscored by 70 runs in games decided by 4 runs or more (no shutdown opportunity). This is the result of having a non-luck sequence of widely varying talent.

 

Falvey and Levine have some work to do between now and the start of 2018 but it's doable. One quality SP and 2 RP will go a long way. Some help will come from the minors but they need acquire pitching too. And I expect the young hitters to keep improving.

 

On the other hand, it's easier to be a pessimist. Let's blow it up! 2021, here they come!

Nobody (that I've seen) is suggesting the Twins blow it up now.

They are lamenting that we didn't blow it up Astros style when we had the chance.

I'd think even the most ardent rebuild supporter understands that now that Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco are up here you try to open a window of contention.

[mazeville]

 

I agree with most of this.
But, Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause.
Trading him has never been an option.

 

So you're telling me he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause to help the club rebuild and go to a winner?

 

No-trade clauses are restrictive. They do not mean trading is not an option. 

[Mr. Brooks]

So you're telling me he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause to help the club rebuild and go to a winner?

 

No-trade clauses are restrictive. They do not mean trading is not an option.

I don't believe he would, no.

I don't believe he's ever wanted to or considered playing for anyone but the Twins.

Every player has different priorities, I don't believe that winning is especially high on Joe's.

Of course anyone would rather win than lose, but I don't think it's his top priority.

[jimmer]

'The run differential is very real but a little deceptive.'

 

Well, it can be.  Whether or not it is in the case I'm not sure.  In any event, I normally use BaseRuns which has us worthy of a 38-50 record.

[Willihammer]

That's not on Ryan anymore than Levine is to blame for not getting Luis Robert. Ownership has never shown that it will go beyond what limits mlb has put in place. In the old Mauer thread, someone even posted an old quote of Pohlad's where he said it was important to fight against increased money to amateur players. 

 

Regardless of who is GM, the Twins will not sign a big FA guy or win a bidding war for a top international FA. We have to hope for guys like Santana to play above his contract and/or for guys like Park to be better than expected.

Is there any way you could find and post that link?

[jsteve96]

 

Yep. More evidence to my contention that the Twins just can't compete for elite players on the trade market right now.

I think they could have. did they want to? I hope not

[gunnarthor]

 

Is there any way you could find and post that link?

I can't find the TD thread but the link was to this article - 

 

http://www.startribune.com/sixteen-years-after-no-1-pick-no-regrets-for-twins-or-joe-mauer/426194721/

 

"Twins’ owner Carl Pohlad felt an obligation, he told his employees, to hold the line against rapid salary inflation, that he owed it to the industry not to be part of what he considered an increasing threat to the game."

 

And if you were paying attention in those dark years, Pohlad was really, really cheap. That's why the Twins drafted Revere and Span because they'd take less than others. 

[Willihammer]

I admit I hadn't heard of any of these prospects until today but on paper it doesn't seem that steep a price. One elite OF prospect in high-A, a good pitching prospect in A-ball, and a couple throw ins. Seems light if anything.

 

If the Twins couldn't match that, after all the losing of the past decade almost, because of an unwillingness to spend on amateurs, then I don't know what to say. It seems like the ROI from amateur spending ought to be exactly how a spendthrift ownership group would plan to be competitive, if they cared about being competitive at all.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think they could have. did they want to? I hope not

Could you post an example of a package that the White Sox might have taken over the Cubs package?

And keep in mind that Hahn has stated publicly that they look for quality over quantity in these deals.

 

Only way the Twins even have a shot is by including Sano, Buxton, Berrios or Kepler, which kind of defeats the purpose.

[Mr. Brooks]

I admit I hadn't heard of any of these prospects until today but on paper it doesn't seem that steep a price. One elite OF prospect in high-A, a good pitching prospect in A-ball, and a couple throw ins. Seems light if anything.

 

If the Twins couldn't match that, after all the losing of the past decade almost, because of an unwillingness to spend on amateurs, then I don't know what to say. It seems like the ROI from amateur spending ought to be exactly how a spendthrift ownership group would plan to be competitive, if they cared about being competitive at all.

Eloy Jimenez is number 5 prospect in all of baseball. Twins don't have a comparable prospect in their system.

[jsteve96]

 

Eloy Jimenez is number 5 prospect in all of baseball. Twins don't have a comparable prospect in their system.

JP crawford is a top 5 prospect right? you wouldn't take Nick G over him?.. just saying the difference is not that big, Gordon higher level and Romero>Cease I believe

[Mike Sixel]

 

JP crawford is a top 5 prospect right? you wouldn't take Nick G over him?.. just saying the difference is not that big, Gordon higher level and Romero>Cease I believe

 

He isn't right now, not on any updated lists right now. 

 

He's not even in the top 50 for KLAW.

[mikelink45]

We have to develop talent and we do not have a #1 or #2 in our system so we have to have an overall set of pitchers who give us some consistency rather than star power.  You can bunch up all the players in the essay looking at who is next for the majors and it would not have gotten you Quintana and I never though Q was really more than an underperforming #3.   Of course that means that the moves we made in working the draft need to be really good in three years.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

We have to develop talent and we do not have a #1 or #2 in our system so we have to have an overall set of pitchers who give us some consistency rather than star power.  You can bunch up all the players in the essay looking at who is next for the majors and it would not have gotten you Quintana and I never though Q was really more than an underperforming #3.   Of course that means that the moves we made in working the draft need to be really good in three years.  

 

Q has been one of the 10 best pitchers over the last 4 years, how is he an underpeforming 3?

[Mr. Brooks]

JP crawford is a top 5 prospect right? you wouldn't take Nick G over him?.. just saying the difference is not that big, Gordon higher level and Romero>Cease I believe

Crawford is 92 on baseball america.

Crease is 83 (Romero not in top 100).

Is there a publication that has Romero ahead of Crease?

 

The difference between a #5 prospect and #30 is HUGE. It's after the top 30 or so that the differences become relatively small.

[gunnarthor]

 

JP crawford is a top 5 prospect right? you wouldn't take Nick G over him?.. just saying the difference is not that big, Gordon higher level and Romero>Cease I believe

I think your general point is probably correct. The Twins and White Sox don't use BA or mlbpipeline's rankings. Their internal rankings will have certain players much higher or lower and probably ranked in tiers. I think a package around Gordon and Romero would have been tempting to the White Sox, depending on what the other two pieces are. But they still might have liked the Cubs package better but we could have thrown in a third prospect, if we wanted. Gordon/Romero and one of Kiriloff or Gonsalves is probably better, right? 

[mikelink45]

 

Q has been one of the 10 best pitchers over the last 4 years, how is he an underpeforming 3?

I know that he has a reputation and I am in the minority, but I have heard lots of praise from others, but I look at him as a bundle of potential and a good pitcher, but I think he has performed as a 3 and when I say he is underperforming it is because I think that with his talent he should be a 1.5 or 2 and not a 3.  I know he was the ace for the sox, but 50 - 54 record over 6 years means he has not pitched deep enough to control the game and get either a win or a loss and his 3;13 K/W rate should be much better.  Too many walks.   His 1.25 Whip is too high for a #1 pitcher and that is the price the cubs just paid. 

 

Now that does not mean he would not go to the head of our rotation, but he is not the value that has been projected. 

 

I expected my comment to draw reactions so thanks for letting me dive in further.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think your general point is probably correct. The Twins and White Sox don't use BA or mlbpipeline's rankings. Their internal rankings will have certain players much higher or lower and probably ranked in tiers. I think a package around Gordon and Romero would have been tempting to the White Sox, depending on what the other two pieces are. But they still might have liked the Cubs package better but we could have thrown in a third prospect, if we wanted. Gordon/Romero and one of Kiriloff or Gonsalves is probably better, right? 

 

The WS have stated their goal is 1 big upside guy as the centerpiece, not two in the next tier. Right or wrong, that's been their stated goal.

 

If you really believe in Kiriloff and Gordon, I'd probably rather have that then just 1 player. But, the delta between the best prospects and the next tier or two is quite large in expected value. So, it's hard to argue the WS path as one good approach.