Buyers or Sellers?

[Twodogs]

I have seen this topic come up numerous times over the last few weeks.  I was giving it some thought as there are some people on the board that suggest that since the Twins are in playoff contention you have to think about being buyers instead of sellers.  Then there are others that say even if the Twins are in contention for playoffs, they should still be sellers because even with a wild card or a division title in a weak division that the Twins have no legit shot at the World Series because of some of this teams limitations.  

 

So I just took a look around, and these are all just based off of my opinions, to see what teams out there, on paper have a legit shot at going to the World Series, teams that seem to have everything.  Solid pitching with a couple of Aces, Solid hitting and solid defense; all three facets of the game that need to be in place in order to contend for a World Series title.  As I looked around I only really see a few teams that meet that criteria in my mind.  Houston Astros, as long as their starting staff gets healthy, seems like they have some nagging injuries but no season enders.  Los Angeles Dodgers seem to have all facets with a legit Ace.  Washington Nationals also seem to have everything in place.  

 

There are others on the cusp, that for whatever reason are not living up to their potential or seem to have some flaws.  They are New York (a little shaky starting pitching? Sabathia??)  Boston (again starting pitching to me is a little shaky), Colorado, (do you trust that rotation in the playoffs?), Arizona?? Chicago (barely .500, must be something wrong), Cleveland (again barely .500) Milwaukee need I say more (Matt Garza?)  Anyway so if most of those teams take the exact same approach as the Twins and decide that if they can't win the World Series that they should be Sellers instead of Buyers there is a possibility that there will be 24 - 26 teams all trying to be sellers at the trade deadline?  

 

I know of all of the people that want to sell, sell, sell many of them are talking about selling Santana, selling Dozier, etc....  They say you need to sell high and buy low and that guys like Santana will never be higher as far a worth.  However, if everyone is sellers wouldn't that put a guy like Santana and his value even lower??  If there are limited buyers, say 4 or 5 teams and a multitude of sellers wouldn't that depress a guy like Santana's or Dozier's value??  Again you would just simply have to wait until it gets closer to the deadline to see what actually happens and I am just throwing out a Devil's advocate scenario here; but, if it comes to fruition that there are way way more sellers than buyers at that deadline which in turn would depress the Twins players values wouldn't it then at that time be better to switch thinking and buy??  Since the market would possibly be depressed it might be easier at that time to buy low which I know at the deadline doesn't make sense but if the market is flooded with sellers then that would lower the value of what is out there and that might be the time to pounce on a deal??  Just looking at it from another angle.

[Doomtints]

The Twins would have to buy too much to win a playoff series, but selling right now would send the wrong message. If someone comes calling for Dozier and the trade makes sense, make the move, but do so at the last possible second because the team could take a nose dive after anyone is sold off.

 

Any moves would have to be made with the eye on 2018. The Twins are closer to competing than we imagined, but it's probably not this year without a major epiphany shared among half the pitching staff.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That decision doesn't need to be made for a month, and we should have more information.  Not sure I'd sell if they are in contention.  I would definitely move Dozier for pitching if I could, but I don't really call that selling.

 

My personal opinion is that they are pretenders, but every now and then a pretender can win the WS (see 1987 Twins).  With a very brutal couple of weeks of baseball coming up, they could quickly fall out of contention and answer the question for us...

 

As for who to move.

 

Dozier for sure.

Maybe Grossman.

Any of the older relievers (assuming there are takers)

I'm not sure I'd move Santana even if they are sellers.  That would have to be an incredibly impressive offer.

[Sssuperdave]

I think a lot of things go into the buy/sell decision besides W-L Record. For me, one reason the Twins should sell is that when it comes to W-L, right now they are overachieving while many of the other teams you mention are underachieving. In my eyes, the Twins have been lucky so far this year. They are 9-4 in one-run games, which is the best (luckiest?) in the American league, and their run differential is minus 44.  Yes, much of that run differential is blowout games, but I can't help but feel that the Twins, even with another piece or two, aren't going to be able to continue this pace.

 

The Yankees are 7-12 in 1 run games and have a +108 run differential, Cleveland is 9-6 in 1 run games and has a +38 run differential, and the Cubs are 10-10 in 1 run games and have a +12 run differential. Add to that the Twins have a lot of individual players over-performing and haven't had many injuries to key players, and this just feels like too much of a mirage to count on.

 

So, even if other team looks at it the same way as the Twins, I don't think there would be 24-26 sellers. I don't think New York, Cleveland, Chicago, or Boston should be sellers even though their records are close to the Twins.

 

I don't know though... perhaps I really am being too pessimistic. It sure is fun to watch my favorite team win, and maybe they will continue to outperform all year?

[Respy]

If I had to predict, I would say they'll be sellers.  In reality though, I think we are seeing as long as they hang around .500, the Front Office is going to float in limbo and keep control of as many current players as possible.  July 31 is still a LONG time from now.  They could be 10 games under .500 or 10 games over .500 (and that would make the decision easier).  If they are around .500, which puts the team in moderate playoff contention, I think they will look at offers as both buyers and sellers up to the deadline.  The first move (if there is one) would likely trigger which direction they need to go.  It's also very possible that they do nothing.  It might take too much to make the team good (ie mid-rotation starter), yet they want to stay in contention and not sell off Santana, Dozier, etc.

[rujellis]

For most part, i agree with doomtints...i just think the MIN need to be prepared to go in either direction.  If someone wows you for Santana, Dozier, Kintzler than you need to have the stones to make those deals.  If you are poking around for upgrades(that are not rentals) and there is a palatable price than again go for it.  

 

Doing nothing is the worst option.  There is a definite need to re-organize both the 25 and 40 man rosters, and I think some fresh blood via trade can be 1 avenue to start that process.  

[Loosey]

I think the Twins are in a position where they have to find the exact right trading partner.  I don't think they will or should go after the rental players to make a run this year.  It would only damage this team to trade prospects for a half a season of a pitcher when clearly more than that is needed.  If they are buying, they need to but the type of player with 2+ years left on their contract so they can get help for this year and the next few.  

 

The problem with these types of trades are there are not many teams willing to trade young talent with years left, and if they do they are likely asking for a lot in return.

[Vanimal46]

Can the answer be both? I would buy pitching right now. Doesn't even have to be the sexy names out there like Gerrit Cole, Darvish, etc. They just need competent back of the rotation arms in order to give themselves a shot of contending until July. 

 

Once July rolls around, if they're at or above .500, continue buying. If they're 10 games out of the WC or Central division, then go right ahead and sell as much as possible. 

[brettbrett88]

 

Can the answer be both? I would buy pitching right now. Doesn't even have to be the sexy names out there like Gerrit Cole, Darvish, etc. They just need competent back of the rotation arms in order to give themselves a shot of contending until July. 

 

Once July rolls around, if they're at or above .500, continue buying. If they're 10 games out of the WC or Central division, then go right ahead and sell as much as possible. 

 

Indeed...who knows how the Indians will fare up until the end of July...we have to remember the Twins are only 2 games off and that can change for the better or worse very quickly! Lets just see how it goes.

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

[Vanimal46]

 

Indeed...who knows how the Indians will fare up until the end of July...we have to remember the Twins are only 2 games off and that can change for the better or worse very quickly! Lets just see how it goes.

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

 

Absolutely, Brett. Side note, I partied with a few Brits down in Cancun last week! Had a nice chinwag at the pool with them. 

[gunnarthor]

I don't expect any major trade during the season but I do think we will make a few trades in the offseason.

That said, I think the team might move Grossman in the next 5 weeks. Molitor sure seems to like Vargas (I don't) and Grossman can't field but he can get on base. I could see a few teams willing to offer something of value for him.

[Twodogs]

I guess my point was that if there are a lot of sellers then that would diminish trade value for players being offered up as the market would be flooded with options? If the market is flooded and value goes down, then wouldn't trading be a bad idea? Also possibly, if the market is flooded and value goes down then it might be prudent to look for that middle to back of the rotation guy as he may come cheap, but only if the market is flooded. Obviously, if the market is scarce, then the value of guys like Dozier, Grossman, Kintzler goes way up..

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

My issue is if they "wait and see" for another month, they will surely fall out of the race. 

 

The decade of dominance from 2001-2010 was nice, but there are no guarantees that will ever happen again. You play the hand you are dealt. The Twins still have a reasonable shot at the post-season this year. 

 

The "do nothing" option is to patch it together for another week or so, and then hope Santiago comes back fresh and performs like he did in his first half-dozen starts. It's possible, but not awe inspiring.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

 

That's not saying much though. I've seen Hughes and Santiago pitch this year. Instead of losing by 7 runs, they maybe only lose by 5. These guys are still really ineffective pitchers.

 

Hughes, Santiago, Pelfrey, Nolasco, Correa, Pavano. I'm just so tired of holding the bag on these vet pitchers when they go bust. I know the argument is usually that people want to get prospects in return for these guys before they go belly up, but that's not really the biggest issue.

 

Because of their status, contract and past year's success the team keeps running these guys out there long after it's clear they are no longer effective. How many games has this team lost in the last decade crossing their fingers and hoping these guys regain their glory, which almost always looked unsustainable to begin with? I don't want to do this with 35-year-old Santana too, I want to end this cycle.

[mazeville]

Here's one potential idea ...

 

You could start buying now. Trade a package of prospects led by Nick Gordon for Cole. Trade for a reliever like Pat Neshek. Put Phil Hughes in the bullpen, and perhaps Kyle Gibson or Santiago. 

 

You'd then have a rotation of Santana-Cole-Berrios-Santiago-Mejia, which is not bad. Signing someone like Neshek, and putting Hughes in the pen, could make things easier top to bottom. And suddenly the Twins could legitimately contend for the division.

 

More to the point, you'd send a message to the fans that they want to win some games and aren't content purely rebuilding.

 

But do this now. Because the fact is, the Twins might need more players than that. The bullpen, especially, could have problems. So if the Twins make these deals and fall further out of the race, they could trade Santana and perhaps Dozier at the deadline to reclaim some minor league depth lost in the Cole and Neshek deals. 

 

And you'd still have a rotation led by Gerritt Cole and Jose Berrios for the next couple of years while guys like Romero and Gonsalves are coming up. I wouldn't consider making a trade for a pitcher unless that pitcher would be here for a few years. And Neshek could probably be had for a relatively low price compared to someone like Andrew Miller. 

[drjim]

I think the buy/sell options are too narrow. I think there is a chance they do both. They could move a position player or two for a longer term option at pitcher, and then potentially add a couple of cheap backend starters or bullpen arms if they are hanging in as fringe contenders through July (which I expect).

 

My personal plan would be to shop Polanco for a starter either up to the deadline (or offseason), extend Dozier, bridge SS with Escobar/Adrianza until Gordon is ready.

 

I would also look to move Rosario or Grossman if they can get controllable starters back (or package with Polanco).

[Vanimal46]

 

I think the buy/sell options are too narrow. I think there is a chance they do both. They could move a position player or two for a longer term option at pitcher, and then potentially add a couple of cheap backend starters or bullpen arms if they are hanging in as fringe contenders through July (which I expect).

 

My personal plan would be to shop Polanco for a starter either up to the deadline (or offseason), extend Dozier, bridge SS with Escobar/Adrianza until Gordon is ready.

 

I would also look to move Rosario or Grossman if they can get controllable starters back (or package with Polanco).

 

We're on the same page. Depending on if the other team values Polanco or Gordon more is who I would trade. Since we want a better pitcher in return. 

[Sssuperdave]

 

I guess my point was that if there are a lot of sellers then that would diminish trade value for players being offered up as the market would be flooded with options? If the market is flooded and value goes down, then wouldn't trading be a bad idea? Also possibly, if the market is flooded and value goes down then it might be prudent to look for that middle to back of the rotation guy as he may come cheap, but only if the market is flooded. Obviously, if the market is scarce, then the value of guys like Dozier, Grossman, Kintzler goes way up..

 

I think it's a totally valid point - tough to be a seller in a buyer's market and vice versa.  I'm just not convinced it will be a buyer's market.  That said, right now 13 AL teams are within 3 games of a playoff spot.  The NL is more spread out though.

[drjim]

 

We're on the same page. Depending on if the other team values Polanco or Gordon more is who I would trade. Since we want a better pitcher in return. 

 

I would think Polanco has better value at the moment but I would bet on Gordon being better long term, and the team has an acceptable bridge to the middle of next season.

[drjim]

 

I would think Polanco has better value at the moment but I would bet on Gordon being better long term, and the team has an acceptable bridge to the middle of next season.

 

Actually, I hadn't looked at his numbers in a while, I didn't realize Polanco had dropped so much. He certainly has value, but perhaps not as much as I thought.

[Rosterman]

 

Actually, I hadn't looked at his numbers in a while, I didn't realize Polanco had dropped so much. He certainly has value, but perhaps not as much as I thought.

Polanco is holding his own, but is he faring better as a backup in the long-term, rather than a starter. (Shades of Alexi Casilla, who is still playing indy ball). With the recent hotness of Escobar, I would assume the Twins play Eduardo more than ever, until he cools...again.

 

I'm not sure Polanco has any trade value unless people are reading the possible GREAT prospect tea leaves. And, at this point in time, I don't see him being a better choice than Dozier for second, which brings up the question...do the Twins extend Dozier 2-3 years and at what price?

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the buy/sell options are too narrow. I think there is a chance they do both. They could move a position player or two for a longer term option at pitcher, and then potentially add a couple of cheap backend starters or bullpen arms if they are hanging in as fringe contenders through July (which I expect).

 

My personal plan would be to shop Polanco for a starter either up to the deadline (or offseason), extend Dozier, bridge SS with Escobar/Adrianza until Gordon is ready.

 

I would also look to move Rosario or Grossman if they can get controllable starters back (or package with Polanco).

 

I'd like to try to get some guys who are still young but have had a lot of luster worn off. I'd be really interested if the Twins tried to get some off-the-radar names like Zack Wheeler or Archie Bradley.

 

These after the afterglow type of guys aren't really exclusive to buying or selling teams.

 

[goulik]

Could they find a way to be both?

 

Three way trades are more difficult but could they sell on one of Dozier/Polanco/Escobar, along with Grossman, or Gimenez for prospects (maybe more than one other team) that could then be flipped to someone else for controllable pitching. If the right combo is out there, maybe you are even selling Santana as well because you have pitching coming back from a different quarter...

 

Our new front office is young and creative right? lets see that creativity!

[WyoTwin]

1. Trade for Archer-Gordon,Kohl or others.

2. Trade for Machado/ Baltimore is 4.5 games out, in forth place and has lost 7 out of the last 10. Plus plays in a tough AL East. Rental player so don't give away the farm.

 

Pitching

Archer

Santana

Berrios

?

?

 

Infield

Vargas/Mauer

Dozier

Machado

Sano

 

Unrealistic but could make a run in the playoffs. Giving up defense for offense. Would be fun to watch.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Can the answer be both? I would buy pitching right now. Doesn't even have to be the sexy names out there like Gerrit Cole, Darvish, etc. They just need competent back of the rotation arms in order to give themselves a shot of contending until July. 

 

Once July rolls around, if they're at or above .500, continue buying. If they're 10 games out of the WC or Central division, then go right ahead and sell as much as possible. 

 

I'd phrase that as neither - nor. Let these young guys gain experience, let key prospects mature, and avoid underselling Santana and Dozier; also, avoid stupid Capps, Jespen deals. 

 

This team needs time to grow some depth before they become buyers, and keep good players to avoid constant rebuild mode. 

 

Above .500 would be a great step in this team's development.

[drjim]

I'd like to try to get some guys who are still young but have had a lot of luster worn off. I'd be really interested if the Twins tried to get some off-the-radar names like Zack Wheeler or Archie Bradley.

 

These after the afterglow type of guys aren't really exclusive to buying or selling teams.

I didn't realize this until I looked, but Bradley has been a very good reliever for the D-Backs this year.

 

But I like the concept, especially with arms. But that is usually more a sell move to acquire someone like that. A team will unload them but only if they are acquiring immediate help.

[gunnarthor]

I hadn't realized how much Pitt is struggling this year. Cole is more name than elite pitcher. Polanco is a disaster for them. Marte was suspended for PEDs. Their #1 prospect, Austin Meadows, is a stud OFer but having a rough time in AAA (but he'll be fine in the long run). And McCutchen is no longer the all-star he used to be. They should be selling a lot of guys.  Not sure how they'd fit with the Twins but is Polanco a change of scenery guy or just a hacker?  He's under a longterm contract but I'm not sure if he's a better bet than Rosario (for the risk). Would Pitt want to move him to make room for Meadows? 

[h2oface]

 

Indeed...who knows how the Indians will fare up until the end of July...we have to remember the Twins are only 2 games off and that can change for the better or worse very quickly! Lets just see how it goes.

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

 

I think both Santiago and Hughes are cooked. Even planning on them contributing in the off season was misguided. No, would be my answer. None of the above, even. Perkins, too. Waiting for Perkins to contribute ever again to our advantage will be folly. 

[Darius]

I think records at today's date are being considered a little too much. Just because the Cubs and Indians (last year's World Series reps) are around .500 right now does does not mean the Twins are in their class.

 

Those teams will go on a run, and will be a factor in the playoffs. The Twins have that record after overachieving. Those guys have that record after struggling mightily.

 

Call me "troll" all you want. But, I'm just trying to put my fandom aside and be realistic. The talent is not there for the Twins.

 

They're too slump-prone offensively Guys like Sano, Mauer, Dozier, and Kepler are supposed to carry the team, but fall off the face of the earth for significant stretches.

 

The pitching staff is horrendous. Absolutely horrendous. Likely the worst in the MLB.

 

It's a huge mistake not to capitalize on the trade market, and suck whatever value you can out of players that aren't expected to contribute in the future. Why let a guy like Dozier, Santana, etc walk in the near future for nothing, unless you're a serious World Series contender?

 

Santana, Dozier, Grossman, Kintzler, and anyone else outside of Berrios, Sano, Kepler, And Buxton should be shopped.

[ahart10]

I hadn't realized how much Pitt is struggling this year. Cole is more name than elite pitcher. Polanco is a disaster for them. Marte was suspended for PEDs. Their #1 prospect, Austin Meadows, is a stud OFer but having a rough time in AAA (but he'll be fine in the long run). And McCutchen is no longer the all-star he used to be. They should be selling a lot of guys. Not sure how they'd fit with the Twins but is Polanco a change of scenery guy or just a hacker? He's under a longterm contract but I'm not sure if he's a better bet than Rosario (for the risk). Would Pitt want to move him to make room for Meadows?

I agree that Pitt should have a fire sale. The price for Cole is too high for me. Nova could be had for less and is owed 9 something per year through 19. McCutchen is starting to come around and I don't see anyone ponying up for him. He would look nice hitting lead off or in the 5 hole for us. Could be a rental if we don't want his 13m option.