Alex Meyer

[Thrylos]

 

 

I'm intentionally writing off Nolasco because it became apparent he simply wasn't going to pitch well in Minnesota. I have no idea why he imploded - maybe it was the old front office's fault - but he was a terrible pitcher nearly every time he took the mound for the Twins. Given that he started 56 games with the team, I have absolutely no reason to think he'd be any different in 2017 than he was in 2014-2016 if he was still wearing a Twins jersey.

 

It was not so apparent to me.  He was hurt in 2015, and was the Twins' second best pitcher in 2016.   Looking quickly in 2016, he started 21 games with the Twins.  His game score was > 50 (average) in 10 of them, about half.   In 3 games he pitched into the 8th inning, in 6 into the 7th,  in 8 into the 6th, and only in 2 games he did not make it into the 5th.  He was not the biggest problem last season.

 

I would not doubt that there were "acclimation" issues and potentially difficulties between him and the coaches, due to different backgrounds; but I would get rid of the coaches before Nolasco in that horrible team, esp. that pitching coach...

 

Believe it or not, he was not that bad.  He was an average number 3-4 starter for the Twins, who got plagued, among other things, by a .330 BABIP, 62.8 % LOB% and a horrible team.  I suspect that at some point he became uninterested as well... 

[old nurse]

That Nolasco had a career 1/3 of a season last year  for the Angels should have no bearing  on if the trade was good or not. That Nolasco is in a contract year and is pitching to league average is an indication of where he is at. The Twins traded a player that under performed for them in Nolasco for a player that could perform better than what Nolasco was giving them. Meyer for the Twins was a riddle wrapped in an enigma covered in medipore tape that they could not solve. They did the guy a favor. They got a player back.  The winner of the trade? The Twins subtracted Nolasco, Meyer got a fresh set of coaches. The short term winner at this point by bwar is the Angels. The winner for this year's production is the Twins. By 2019 the net effect is likely insignificant for both teams. Nolasco and Santiago will move on, Meyer will still tease potential and Busenitz might be a  5th inning pitcher.

[old nurse]

 

 

It was not so apparent to me.  He was hurt in 2015, and was the Twins' second best pitcher in 2016.   Looking quickly in 2016, he started 21 games with the Twins.  His game score was > 50 (average) in 10 of them, about half.   In 3 games he pitched into the 8th inning, in 6 into the 7th,  in 8 into the 6th, and only in 2 games he did not make it into the 5th.  He was not the biggest problem last season.

 

I would not doubt that there were "acclimation" issues and potentially difficulties between him and the coaches, due to different backgrounds; but I would get rid of the coaches before Nolasco in that horrible team, esp. that pitching coach...

 

Believe it or not, he was not that bad.  He was an average number 3-4 starter for the Twins, who got plagued, among other things, by a .330 BABIP, 62.8 % LOB% and a horrible team.  I suspect that at some point he became uninterested as well... 

He appears to be unintrested as an Angel this year. Why would anyone want uninterested players on a roster? Yes, he was the second best pitcher on the Twins last year.  That would be like finishing second in a King Ugly contest.  Nolasco, despite a great 1/3 season in California, was still well below league average as a starting pitcher.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

True.

But even then I still think he would make a potential solid closer or 8th inning guy (something the Twins don't exactly have in spades these days...)

Wow,I don't know Dave...

 

Meyer has a WHIP of 1.603 this year. Career MLB WHIP of 1.690. Even with 9.8 K/9 that is usually considered to be a awful lot of base runners. Certainly more than you want in a close game.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

That Nolasco had a career 1/3 of a season last year  for the Angels should have no bearing  on if the trade was good or not. That Nolasco is in a contract year and is pitching to league average is an indication of where he is at. The Twins traded a player that under performed for them in Nolasco for a player that could perform better than what Nolasco was giving them. Meyer for the Twins was a riddle wrapped in an enigma covered in medipore tape that they could not solve. They did the guy a favor. They got a player back.  The winner of the trade? The Twins subtracted Nolasco, Meyer got a fresh set of coaches. The short term winner at this point by bwar is the Angels. The winner for this year's production is the Twins. By 2019 the net effect is likely insignificant for both teams. Nolasco and Santiago will move on, Meyer will still tease potential and Busenitz might be a  5th inning pitcher.

I like all of this.

 

The only part you missed is that Santiago had a career worst 1/4 of a season for the Twins last year. In 5 of his last 7 starts last year he gave up 5 runs in 33 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA).

SSS, but as long as we're picking and choosing...

[bighat]

I think the Twins had to get rid of Nolasco because he pretty clearly didn't enjoy playing for the team.  Just not a happy camper in Minneapolis.  As for Meyer, I think the Twins were frustrated with his development and weren't interested in dealing with another complicated project.  They had enough on their hands and found a taker.  Neither Nolasco or Meyer will win the Cy Young this year.  Or next.  There are "bad trades" and then there are trades that are minorly unbalanced.  

 

My guess is that the trade is pretty meaningless overall for both teams in the end. 

[kab21]

Did somebody just argue that Nolasco was the Twins 2nd best starter last year as if that had some sort of meaning or relevance? Or that Nolasco was somehow good based on 19 starts?

I need to see a little more...

[PseudoSABR]

Doesn't Nolasco have an option/vesting year that kicks in if he gets enough starts in years 3 and 4 of the deal (or something like that)?  

[snepp]

 

Doesn't Nolasco have an option/vesting year that kicks in if he gets enough starts in years 3 and 4 of the deal (or something like that)?  

 

400+ innings in 16/17 to vest his option. So he'd need 202 1/3 this year.

[The Wise One]

Meyer had a trio of 4 yesterday, 4 IP, 4BB, 4ER

[DaveW]

Watched his start. The walks did him in, too many pitches.

 

I think he ends up being a bullpen guy unless he cuts that out.

[The Wise One]

 

Watched his start. The walks did him in, too many pitches.

I think he ends up being a bullpen guy unless he cuts that out.

A hard throwing version of Kinzler? Senor smoked?

[DaveW]

A hard throwing version of Kinzler? Senor smoked?

More upside. He's a frustrating pitcher to watch, he looks so dominate at times, then just loses control.

 

I do like how the LAA are giving him plenty of shots to start though.

[The Wise One]

 

More upside. He's a frustrating pitcher to watch, he looks so dominate at times, then just loses control.

I do like how the LAA are giving him plenty of shots to start though.

The options on the Dodger that are on the 40 man and uninjured are?  They have little choice but to remove doubt. If they need another starter, someone will either have to be injured or dfa'd. In Meyer's case, either could happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Angels have been pretty aggressive with Meyer since they acquired him, so it's not entirely desperation. But he could get demoted soon for Fister.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Meyer had a trio of 4 yesterday, 4 IP, 4BB, 4ER

It was a shakier outing again, although through 4 IP Meyer was fairly effective. Only 2 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB and 7 K at that point.

 

But a double, walk, and error got him pulled in the 5th.

[jimbo92107]

I'd like to put a portable EEG on Meyer's head when he pitches. What the hell is going on in there??

[Twodogs]

 

Maybe he's really just a bullpen guy and the Twins were correct.

The Twins could use some bullpen guys?

[The Wise One]

 

It was a shakier outing again, although through 4 IP Meyer was fairly effective. Only 2 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB and 7 K at that point.

But a double, walk, and error got him pulled in the 5th.

Fairly effective is 6 ip and 2-3 runs allowed,

[Eris]

I was at the game last night.  We went to see Trout play.  It was very classical Alex Meyers.  I didn't think he would make it out of the first.  Recovered to have a 1, 2, 3 second.  Struggled in the 3rd.  Pitched a great 4th and lost it in the 5th.

[jokin]

 

Fairly effective is 6 ip and 2-3 runs allowed,

 

Incorrect by current MLB standards. 6 IP and 3 ER is now deemed a "quality start." AL league average for SPs was indeed right around 4.5 in 2016.

 

For the game in question...

 

Meyer's FIP 3.30 xFIP 4.57

 

So, I guess "fairly effective" is a pretty accurate description.

[The Wise One]

 

Incorrect by current MLB standards. 6 IP and 3 ER is now deemed a "quality start." AL league average for SPs was indeed right around 4.5 in 2016.

 

For the game in question...

 

Meyer's FIP 3.30 xFIP 4.57

 

So, I guess "fairly effective" is a pretty accurate descript

At the end of the game  he was charged with 4 runs. He could not pitch 6 innings.   You may call that effective, but the effect was the team lost the game with him pitching. Thank you for showing the limitations of fip in the context of winning and losing individual games.  That he did not give up a home run keeps the fip score low. An xfip of 4.5, way worse than league average, is not a sign of effectiveness.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fairly effective is 6 ip and 2-3 runs allowed,

Which is exactly what I said.  Through 4 IP, Meyer was on pace to do exactly that (6 IP, 3 R).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Meyer was placed on the 10-day DL today for back spasms, so he will miss at least 1 start.  (Probably 2, although perhaps not if they make it retroactive to his last start.)

[The Wise One]

 

Which is exactly what I said.  Through 4 IP, Meyer was on pace to do exactly that (6 IP, 3 R).

 On pace to do something really means nothing as the final result of the game shows. Effectiveness wears down the second/third time through the order. Jeez Kyle Gibson pitched fairly effectively for all but one inning last time out.

[ashbury]

I think this type of stat twisting could make anyone (maybe not Gibson) look 'effective'.

Mod note: let's please keep the invective down. A poster noted that the fifth inning did Meyer in, and that's not a reason for bickering.

 

/ edit - coincidentally the poster spoke for himself while I was typing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 On pace to do something really means nothing as the final result of the game shows. Effectiveness wears down the second/third time through the order. Jeez Kyle Gibson pitched fairly effectively for all but one inning last time out.

I said it was a "shaky outing" for Meyer.  What more do you want?  Am I not allowed to go into any detail about the performance?

 

If you don't care about the details of Meyer's performance, that's fine.  But I don't see the point in quibbling with people that do.

[drjim]

 

Look, the bottom line is that the Angels are doing what I think we all wanted the Twins to do at some point in the last year or two. There are going to throw him out there every fifth day for a while and see how he does (although the 10 day  DL will stop that for now). The Angels really have very little choice since they don't have much in the starting rotation. Some might say that was the Twins last year but I guess Meyer's mysterious injury prevented us from giving him his shot.

 

The good news is  that we actually may have gotten value out of the trade. Santiago has been "reasonably effective" this year and Busenitz looks like he actually might have the stuff to be an MLB reliever. I hope Meyer does well for the Angels.. I think the Twins are going to at least try to re-sign Santiago for another two or three years  and I think Busenitz will be in the bullpen this year at some point. this could be that rare situation where it's a good deal for both teams.

 

At the same time, his results show why the Twins pretty much stopped trying to throw him out there.

[bighat]

 

 

I think the Twins are going to at least try to re-sign Santiago for another two or three years

 

I certainly hope the Twins don't re-sign him.   I really don't see Hector Santiago being an important part of any successful team's starting rotation.  I haven't been very impressed with him.  "At least he's not Gibson" is pretty much the best thing I can say about Hector right now.  Wish things were different.
 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would claim that Ervin Santana's first ten starts have been "fairly effective", but perhaps I should wait until the end of the season before making that determination.