Kennys Vargas

[bluechipper]

 

I would like to see Kennys playing just about every day. I feel that he is a budding star and will be our 1B well in to the future. He is in need of some dreadlocks like Sano to increase his swagger.

Also, somebody mentioned steak earlier in this thread. I like steak. I wish I had one right now.

I think a budding star is too much. Look at his AAA numbers, in 605 PA, .244/.372/.438 (.809). Pretty good numbers, but those are in his age 24-26 seasons, and look more like an average DH instead of one of the best in the league.

[yarnivek1972]

Kepler does need to face lefties if he is ever going to improve against them.  I have no problem with him getting a day off roughly once every other week.  And ideally it would be against a lefty.  Not so much because he struggles against them, but because his replacement (Grossman) historically hammers them.

[drjim]

 

The split held true all of last year as well.

 

I agree that I'd prefer he not really sit at all.

 

Might be a promising sign of the increased influence of Goin, et al in day to day lineups

[yarnivek1972]

 

I think a budding star is too much. Look at his AAA numbers, in 605 PA, .244/.372/.438 (.809). Pretty good numbers, but those are in his age 24-26 seasons, and look more like an average DH instead of one of the best in the league.

 

I think he's been very different since coming up in July last year.  BB rate is way up.  In 2015 he had 9 BB in 184 PA.  In 2016, 24 BB in 177 PA.  HUGE improvement.  K rate hasn't changed much, but it is still better than Sano's at the MLB level.  It shows that he is waiting for his pitch and then clobbering it.  We always knew that was his game.  Getting his pitch and hitting it.  Prior to last season he seemed unwilling to wait for it and that is why he is doing so well IMO.  He hasn't walked much yet so far, but with 4 HR in 40 at bats, I suspect pitchers will start giving him less to see.  It's on him to continue to show he won't chase.  He has only 9 K so far, so he certainly isn't flailing away.

[TheLeviathan]

I wouldn't go so far as to call him a budding star, but he's a budding factor in our future.  And that is more than enough for me to give him as many ABs as possible.

[Dr. Evil]

 

I think a budding star is too much. Look at his AAA numbers, in 605 PA, .244/.372/.438 (.809). Pretty good numbers, but those are in his age 24-26 seasons, and look more like an average DH instead of one of the best in the league.

That could very well end up being the case. I predict he will be better than that. I think there is one more level he can get to. It will be fun to see how it plays out in the coming years. Your data certainly supports him being average.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You might be referencing last Thursday, when he sat against a righty with two lefties coming in the next three games.

 

Actually that RHP kills lefties, so in a sense it was the right call. 

Yeah, that move seemed nonsensical until you look at the pitcher's career splits. It makes more sense after that point.

 

Still not sure I would have gone that direction but the decision was defensible.

[Riverbrian]

I am exhausted hearing about projection. I have no idea what Vargas will be 2 years from now.

 

Paul Molitor has no idea what Vargas will be 2 years from now. 

 

But Paul Molitor can certainly influence where he is 2 years from now if makes decisions based on his personal projections and not what is happening on the field. 

 

Vargas has 4 HR's in 39 AB's. with .282 BA. Dozier has 4 Hr's in 105 AB's with a .229 BA. 

 

Dozier will play everyday... Vargas? 

 

If Vargas isn't playing everyday right now? Projection would be the only reason why he would sit since performance screams play him while he is hot. 

 

Our projections have been pretty much worthless for the past 5 years and we need to try another method like looking at actual performance.  

 

If Molitor doesn't play him right now while he is hot... Molitor would be too egotistical for the job.

 

Do I trust Paul... not after Vargas ended up in Rochester after a month worth of major league 1,000 plus OPS last year. 

 

PLAY HIM... He's earning it. If he's earning it... GET OUT OF HIS WAY. I'm tired of projection and don't want to hear about it anymore. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You might be referencing last Thursday, when he sat against a righty with two lefties coming in the next three games.

 

Actually that RHP kills lefties, so in a sense it was the right call. 

Jharel Cotton kills lefties?  .811 OPS against LHB this year. Gave up a HR to Rosario in that game, and one to noted left-handed slugger Ben Revere (!) last night.

 

Cotton "killed lefties" last year in 2016, mostly in AAA.  The rest of his pro career has shown a pretty even split.

 

If I was trying to eke out an edge, it might be an avenue worth exploring. But not someone I'd be looking to protect Kepler from.

[Shaitan]

 

Of course they do

I have no idea how they do it. But, if hitters are constantly making adjustments, would it do a team any good to pull out an old (outdated) scouting report on a player? I feel like they'd have expiration dates on their relevance.

[yarnivek1972]

I have no idea how they do it. But, if hitters are constantly making adjustments, would it do a team any good to pull out an old (outdated) scouting report on a player? I feel like they'd have expiration dates on their relevance.

Might be all the more reason to keep them. To see what has changed and what has not.

[amjgt]

 

Jharel Cotton kills lefties?  .811 OPS against LHB this year. Gave up a HR to Rosario in that game, and one to noted left-handed slugger Ben Revere (!) last night.

 

Cotton "killed lefties" last year in 2016, mostly in AAA.  The rest of his pro career has shown a pretty even split.

 

If I was trying to eke out an edge, it might be an avenue worth exploring. But not someone I'd be looking to protect Kepler from.

 

At the time, 2017 was a SSS, so I looked at 2016 and it showed a similar tendency.

 

That was enough for me to drop the "why is Kepler sitting against a righty" outrage.

[DocBauer]

some awesome auto corrects in there.....

Grr...was in a rush, but you'd think my tablet would know better by now wouldn't you? Sheesh!

[nicksaviking]

 

I have no idea how they do it. But, if hitters are constantly making adjustments, would it do a team any good to pull out an old (outdated) scouting report on a player? I feel like they'd have expiration dates on their relevance.

 

If players were capable of making adjustments to the degree that they can completely fix their flaws everyone would hit like Ted Williams.

[theBOMisthebomb]

so you want him to just stand there, and look at the bench for 2/3 of the game?

Yes, if that means the Twins pinch hit for Ol' Joe each night after one AB.

[USAFChief]

At the time, 2017 was a SSS, so I looked at 2016 and it showed a similar tendency.

 

That was enough for me to drop the "why is Kepler sitting against a righty" outrage.

Personally, I'm skeptical of almost any reverse split.

 

The number of RH pitchers who are good enough to pitch professionally, and truly are better against LH hitters, is pretty small.

 

Same for hitters. Eventually, the weight of breaking balls going away from you, instead of into your swing,catches up.

[gil4]

 

Well, maybe so, but what kind of ice cream is each of them?

Grossmann is vanilla - useful but boring.  Rosario is mint chocolate chip - looks cool, but no nearly as good as you think it could be.  Kepler is cookies & cream - pretty darned good, and if you wait a minute they may add some hot fudge and whipped cream to make it outstanding.

[snepp]

Does that mean Buxton is Rocky Road?

[DaveW]

Kepler should be in the lineup everyday. He was as raw as they come as a prospect and has come up the ranks lightning quick: marginal LHP? Great LHP? I don't care. He should be getting the experience against them all. He has the potential to be an everyday solid player peak years cuddyer style, no need to push him into a platoon so freaking early.

[kab21]

 

Not sure why you want Grossman sitting more than Mauer.  Grossman was better last year, he's better so far this year.

 

You are also not considering that Sano occasionally plays first or DH.  He probably won't get many days truly off.  DH might be as close as he gets. If he shows signs of fatigue, you might give him a blow, but I honestly think that's a once a month thing.  Really, IMO same with Vargas.  1 day off a week may not sound like much, but that caps him at about 135 games.  Should be more like 145 IMO.  It obviously won't be this year because he didn't start the year at the MLB level.  If you give Grossman two days a week, that projects him to 110 games.  The guy is the third or fourth best hitter on the team right now.  I don't see how sitting him that often helps.

 

Mauer started 130 games last year between first and DH and that was too many.  To keep him fresh and productive, I honestly believe he should be starting no more than 90-100.

 

Edit: when I say "games" above, I mean starts.

Injuries will happen and all of your season counts will be trashed.

I am also realistic about how much Mauer is going to sit. People can say he should only play 90-100 games/year but that isn't what is going to happen. And most of Joe's days off didn't come until September. He actually played just about every game until (1-2 days off/month) September.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Mauer is very very strong defensively at 1st base. I think that is very important with an INF featuring Sano and Polanco.

I get that 1st base is the easiest position and all of that, but Mauer is one of the best ones in baseball.

I don't think moving him to the OF us a solution.

I'm also not saying Mauer needs to ply every game, but he should be starting in the majority of them.

To me, switching Mauer to OF at this point in his career = having Sano playing RF.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Personally, I'm skeptical of almost any reverse split.

 

The number of RH pitchers who are good enough to pitch professionally, and truly are better against LH hitters, is pretty small.

 

Same for hitters. Eventually, the weight of breaking balls going away from you, instead of into your swing,catches up.

Depends how good their changeup is.

Guys with a good enough changeup to be their out pitch (Hoffman, Johan) consistently put up reverse splits.

This Cotton guy probably doesn't have a changeup like those guys though, but I haven't seen him pitch so I don't know.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Grossmann is vanilla - useful but boring.  Rosario is mint chocolate chip - looks cool, but no nearly as good as you think it could be.  Kepler is cookies & cream - pretty darned good, and if you wait a minute they may add some hot fudge and whipped cream to make it outstanding.

 

Your opinion on mint chocolate chip means we can't be friends.  (We might be able to associate though if you agree Pistachio Ice Cream is amazing.)

[yarnivek1972]

To me, switching Mauer to OF at this point in his career = having Sano playing RF.

Except that you would be putting a guy out there that has had at least two knee surgeries.

[Riverbrian]

 

Depends how good their changeup is.
Guys with a good enough changeup to be their out pitch (Hoffman, Johan) consistently put up reverse splits.
This Cotton guy probably doesn't have a changeup like those guys though, but I haven't seen him pitch so I don't know.

 

I've seen Cotton a couple of times. In my opinion using the eye test... his change up is nasty. It's one of the best I've seen. 

 

That thing drops off a table and to the right. It looks like a sinking screwball.

 

He gave up a few runs when I watched him for the first time but I remember thinking to myself... Remember this guy because he is going to be an Ace. 

[USAFChief]

 

Depends how good their changeup is.
Guys with a good enough changeup to be their out pitch (Hoffman, Johan) consistently put up reverse splits.
This Cotton guy probably doesn't have a changeup like those guys though, but I haven't seen him pitch so I don't know.

Generally speaking, throwing changeups to same handed hitters is usually discouraged.  

 

Hoffman didn't have a reverse split for his career.

 

Johan did, but by very little.  

 

Also in general, splits are often influenced by selection bias...a good LH pitcher, for example, will face mostly good or better LH hitters and few average or worse LH hitters.  The LH hitters left in the lineup to face him are the ones who aren't platooned for. 

 

I believe my point stands...I'm skeptical of most any reverse platoon split.  They're rare, and even then I'm skeptical it really represents what it seems to represent.

[gil4]

 

Your opinion on mint chocolate chip means we can't be friends.  (We might be able to associate though if you agree Pistachio Ice Cream is amazing.)

I like pistachios and I like ice cream, but not together. Just not a fan of green ice cream. 

 

I do have a new favorite, however. Braum's (it's an Oklahoma company) Sea Salt Caramel Cashew.  When I first saw it, I thought "sea salt is just salt, caramel is OK, and cashews (like pistachios) don't go well with ice cream." Then my wife bought some, and when the selection got down to that and something with coffee in it, I broke down and tried it. It was awesome. 

 

They had better not discontinue it. If you're ever in Oklahoma (or within a 1-day drive of their headquarters in Tuttle, OK - that gets some N Texas and S Kansas) you can try it.