Berrios staying in the minors?

[yarnivek1972]

 

Well it's only been 5 starts this year, but Berrios has already reduced his solid BB% by over 20% from last year's stint in AAA. Or, if you prefer, his K/BB has from from 3.47 last year to 4.38 this year. I'm not sure what more he needs to show.

 

At some point a player can only learn so much from being down in the minors. In this case these AAA hitters are clearly not challenging Berrios. The only way he is going to learn to get Major League hitters out at this point is by being challenged by them. Furthermore, I'd rather see him up here learning from Neil Allen than from the pitching coaches in the minors -the same ones that couldn't prepare any pitchers for the majors during the second TR stint. 

 

And then there is the whole issue of injury potential. There are only so many bullets in a pitcher's arm before it requires surgery. I'd rather have Berrios using his "bullets" up trying to establish himself at the Majors rather than using them up dominating overmatched AAA hitters.

 

 

I'd rather have him up here learning from Ervin Santana.  IMO he learns more from him than Stu Cliburn, Neil Allen or Eddie Guardado.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I imagine we both agree that Berrios should be making his next start in the bigs too.

 

I'm admittedly playing a little front ofdice advocate here even though I don't agree with the decision. I do find the thought process of the new front office worthy of investigation.

this. While I disagree w/ the FO, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, just to see how this shakes loose at some point in the near future.

[Major League Ready]

 

Their assessment of Berrios was that he was ready last year. He wasn't. How were they correct?

 

Excellent appeal to authority though.

 

No argument from me that they were wrong about him last year or that they were wrong about many things.  Their draft record and trade history make that very clear..  I was talking about 2015 when you and several others were quite adamant that bring up Berrios was clearly the best thing they could do to improve our chances of making the playoffs.  The amount of moaning that went on here was silly.  He was not ready.  We would have burned a year of control, pushed him beyond his innings quota and had they brought him up, many people would probably have blamed that move for ruining our chances at the playoffs.  

 

As for the appeal to authority.  I would think a guy with a MBA would understand the first rule of management decision making is making sure you have the best information possible.  Obviously, all of us are at a decided disadvantage where this is concerned.  That has nothing to do with an appeal to authority.   It's simply an opinion that questioning the competence of our new leadership given they are highly regarded and we have a fraction of the information is ironically, incompetent in terms of basic management principals. 

 

I get the frustration.  This organization has been run very poorly.  We have enough historic evidence to make that argument rather conclusively.  It would just be a more interesting conversation if the focus was tan argument for the options (as many people do) instead of the very tired position of that everyone else must just be stupid.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No argument from me that they were wrong about him last year or that they were wrong about many things. Their draft record and trade history make that very clear.. I was talking about 2015 when you and several others were quite adamant that bring up Berrios was clearly the best thing they could do to improve our chances of making the playoffs. The amount of moaning that went on here was silly. He was not ready. We would have burned a year of control, pushed him beyond his innings quota and had they brought him up, many people would probably have blamed that move for ruining our chances at the playoffs.

Calling up Berrios late in 2015 would not have burned a year of control, compared to what actually happened. He would be in the same state as he is now in that regard, except +30 days or whatever for service time (meaning we'd have to keep him down until August instead of July this year to get an extra year of control, assuming 2016 played out exactly the same).

 

Also, he would not have exceeded any innings limit if they took a few steps to manage it that August.

 

And while he may have failed in 2015 too, I would have rather taken that chance in a pennant race than turn to Graham and O'Rourke in key relief spots vs RHB. (Although it should be noted that Berrios remains untested in relief, it is unclear if he would have struggled in that role like he did in a starting role in 2016. In any case, it would have been fairly easy to gauge in a few low leverage outings to begin his career.)

[Oldgoat_MN]

I don't know how the stats he's putting up don't point out some degree of command.

 

On the other hand, there are probably about 29 teams out there who would be willing to trade a Nick Tepesch type pitcher for Jose Berrios. At least we'd be able to see that guy in MLB.

[USAFChief]

 

No argument from me that they were wrong about him last year or that they were wrong about many things.  Their draft record and trade history make that very clear..  I was talking about 2015 when you and several others were quite adamant that bring up Berrios was clearly the best thing they could do to improve our chances of making the playoffs.  The amount of moaning that went on here was silly.  He was not ready.  We would have burned a year of control, pushed him beyond his innings quota and had they brought him up, many people would probably have blamed that move for ruining our chances at the playoffs.  

 

As for the appeal to authority.  I would think a guy with a MBA would understand the first rule of management decision making is making sure you have the best information possible.  Obviously, all of us are at a decided disadvantage where this is concerned.  That has nothing to do with an appeal to authority.   It's simply an opinion that questioning the competence of our new leadership given they are highly regarded and we have a fraction of the information is ironically, incompetent in terms of basic management principals. 

 

I get the frustration.  This organization has been run very poorly.  We have enough historic evidence to make that argument rather conclusively.  It would just be a more interesting conversation if the focus was tan argument for the options (as many people do) instead of the very tired position of that everyone else must just be stupid.

ironic.

[Loosey]

 

I don't know how the stats he's putting up don't point out some degree of command.

 

On the other hand, there are probably about 29 teams out there who would be willing to trade a Nick Tepesch type pitcher for Jose Berrios. At least we'd be able to see that guy in MLB.

I think for the long-term every team including the Twins would rather have Berrios.  But for the short-term I think I have some faith in the front-office's assessment of him.  We saw what happened last year when came up and wasn't ready.  

 

Regarding the command comment, there was discussion that other day on this.  He has fine control which will keep walks in check.  However, his command needs polish for him to excel in the majors.  He can get away with missing his spot up by a few inches or out over the middle of the plate in AAA due to his excellent stuff.  Up here a major league hitter will make him pay.  Hopefully he is very close.

 

That being said, if the coaches who can fine tune that command are in Minnesota I think Berrios should be here working with them, even if he starts out in a relief role to get his feet wet.

[drjim]

I don't know how the stats he's putting up don't point out some degree of command.

 

On the other hand, there are probably about 29 teams out there who would be willing to trade a Nick Tepesch type pitcher for Jose Berrios. At least we'd be able to see that guy in MLB.

I don't think anyone would say Berrios has no command.

 

The second point is true, but not especially meaningful. And the correct answer is 30 teams would make that trade. The front office wants Berrios good for the long haul. The may be wrong in how they are developing him, but there is certainly an argument to be made for sacrificing some starts in the immediate to allow for more complete development. This doesn't mean the Twins value Tepesch as an asset more than Berrios.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'm just frustrated, along with most others on these boards.

Who will they bring up now that Gibson has been optioned to AAA?

Mejia? Hurlbut?

[drjim]

 

I'm just frustrated, along with most others on these boards.

Who will they bring up now that Gibson has been optioned to AAA?

Mejia? Hurlbut?

 

We'll find out soon enough. I don't think there is a clear answer.

[USAFChief]

 

I'm just frustrated, along with most others on these boards.

Who will they bring up now that Gibson has been optioned to AAA?

Mejia? Hurlbut?

My guess is they won't add a starter until they need one...next weekend.

 

I'd guess a bullpen arm.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

My guess is they won't add a starter until they need one...next weekend.

 

I'd guess a bullpen arm.

We don't need bullpen arms as badly as we did before.

Gibson is going to AAA.

[USAFChief]

 

We don't need bullpen arms as badly as we did before.

Gibson is going to AAA.

Phil "exit velocity" Hughes is going tonight.

[Steve Lein]

 

A lot of those strikes are swinging strikes that fool AAA hitters that mlb hitters will laugh it.

I buy the company line in the sense that it was the problem that dogged him in the bigs last year, but it is a little discouraging that it hasn't improved enough by now.

I don't like this, Tepesch does nothing for me. But if the front office has a very specific plan with very specific benchmarks, I guess I can accept it.

 

This is my thinking as well. Here's a couple videos of all the K-pitches from his last two starts:

 

(his fastball was getting them in this one)

 

(lots of out-of-zone swing and miss)

 

From the look of it to me, he wouldn't have done nearly as well against MLB hitters in either. Not as many would have been missed in the first link, and not as many would have been swung at in the second. Who knows what would have come next against MLB hitters, but I did like the command in the first one a lot better.

 

According to his game log, he has 84 strikes looking and just 51 swinging. Still buying?

 

There's not a single pitcher in the history of baseball, who has gotten more swinging strikes than looking ones. This does not say anything. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

... I was talking about 2015 when you and several others were quite adamant that bring up Berrios was clearly the best thing they could do to improve our chances of making the playoffs.

 

Let me correct your memory. If you mean clearly one of the best things, yes. We needed bullpen help and Berrios might have helped there, in the opinion of many. Bullpen would have also mitigated the innings concern.

[yarnivek1972]

We'll find out soon enough. I don't think there is a clear answer.

It appears that there is a lack of clear direction. It appears the brain trust hasn't decided if this team is contending or rebuilding. A rebuilding team puts Byron Buxton in the 3 hole. A contending team probably taps Nick Tepesch over Jose Berrios. I suspect the next 6 weeks will tip the scales. If the Twins get through the next 6 weeks above .500, they have a shot to stay above .500 all year. Personally, I don't see that happening.

[drjim]

It appears that there is a lack of clear direction. It appears the brain trust hasn't decided if this team is contending or rebuilding. A rebuilding team puts Byron Buxton in the 3 hole. A contending team probably taps Nick Tepesch over Jose Berrios. I suspect the next 6 weeks will tip the scales. If the Twins get through the next 6 weeks above .500, they have a shot to stay above .500 all year. Personally, I don't see that happening.

I don't really blame them for not fully committing to a rebuild.

 

They probably suspect that they need to rebuild for a year or two, and especially reload the pitching staff. But there is also enough young talent (especially on the everyday side) that could pop at any moment, so there is some wisdom in at least keeping that door cracked. Might as well try to win in the immediate.

[drjim]

I generally agree they don't have the horses to compete, but the division, and the league as a whole, is pretty mediocre. They might be able to hang around. Even more so if a couple arms can come up and provide a lift.

[USAFChief]

I said in spring training, and still believe, there is no reason this team, with the young everyday position players it has, shouldn't be able to hang around the periphery (at least) of WC contention.  And should actually be getting better as the season wears on, for that matter.

 

They don't need great pitching to do that.  They just need enough not to take themselves out of games too often.

 

They should absolutely be trying to win.  Why not?

[dgwills]

It's really hard for me to make a judgement on this issue. That Twins just have such a poor record of developing players. How can I trust them? I know that the problem is not Berrios's work ethic. 

[twinscowboysbulls]

When Berrios joins the rotation, if he can be what everyone thinks he could be with better command.... does this team become a 90 win team?

 

I think it's possible with the way the offense is performing.

[drivlikejehu]

 

When Berrios joins the rotation, if he can be what everyone thinks he could be with better command.... does this team become a 90 win team?

I think it's possible with the way the offense is performing.

 

80

[jimmer]

 

The number of starts and innings is about as meaningful as his awesome AAA stats themselves if what Molitor says is true: that he's still lacking command of his fastball.

 

I want to see him up here too, but given the results last year (with a lot of success at AAA under his belt), I think its prudent for the Twins to be conservative/cautious, and look beyond the box score for evidence of readiness. 

yes, all of this, yes.

[Mr. Brooks]

Tepesch to get at least 1 more start, per LaVelle.

[drjim]

 

Tepesch to get at least 1 more start, per LaVelle.

 

They still need another starter next week. Has to be Berrios at this point.

 

Perhaps the Mejia bomb gave Tepesch another start.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another day in the minors, another day Berrios struggles with his command.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Another day in the minors, another day Berrios struggles with his command.

 

Pfft, if he gets called up for Saturday it means this was magically the game where everything was fixed!

[Riverbrian]

Ok

 

Tepesch with one more start

 

Berrios threw 6 innings today

 

Santana threw 6 innings today. 

 

We have an off day Monday. 

 

Santiago I assume throws on Tuesday

 

Hughes I assume Thursday

 

Tepesch I assume Friday

 

Both Santana and Berrios would be good to go on Saturday. 

 

Who starts Wednesday?

 

It Won't be Berrios I assume

[mlhouse]

J.J. Berrios isn't a 28-30 year old journeyman, replacement level player.  So, of course they have no interest in bringing him up to the majors.  

 

It is against the Twins thinking, apparently with both the old and new management, that a player can develop at the major league level.  So, if he doesn't have "command" of his fastball like Greg Maddux  he isn't ready.  Might take 3 or 4 more seasons in AAA to get to that spot.  

[yarnivek1972]

You counted wrong. Hughes pitched Friday so he pitches Wednesday on regular rest. The opening comes Thursday when it would be the #4 turn, right now Tepesch. The #5 turn is Friday, although you could pitch Santana there on regular rest but then the open turn is Saturday. My guess? Berrios goes Friday and Santana Saturday, both in Cleveland. Would be great to see them pitch Mejia Thursday at home against the White Sox but I'm guessing Tepesch gets another try.

Logically, you would start Santana on Friday. Reason # 1 is you want your ace to start the tone setting first game of the series. Reason #2 is that since Santana is more likely to have a good start (and a long one) it would put less pressure on the pen and more availability for the rest of the series. Reason # 3 is developmental. The biggest reason I have been so steadfast in calling for Berrios is for him to have a front row seat while Ervin goes about his business. He had a stinker today. But he has been without question the best starter in the AL since last June. Maybe Berrios watches Santana pitch and it becomes a friendly competition. That is what happened in the first half of 1991 with Morris and Erickson.