Article: The Twins Are Going to Win 80 Games in 2017

[Brandon Warne]

I wrote for Cold Omaha today that I think the Twins will win 80 games this season. Discussion, as always, appreciated: 

 

http://coldomaha.com/2017/twins/the-minnesota-twins-will-win-80-games-in-2017/

[nicksaviking]

I have to say that I too have been repressing a bit of optimism, mostly because we should be expecting the young guys to take a stop forward and I think an organizational philosophy shift on pitching might make a bigger impact than what we might expect.

 

However the optimism isn't entirely welcome either because I still don't think this team has the organizational pitching talent to win a championship. They are likely never going to go buy it, so I really think they need to move Dozier and/or Santana to get multiple upside arms and I doubt they would do that if they were semi-competitive.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Can spring training games count toward that total?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

However I have really taken to your idea of rebooting Gibson without his sinker. I'd make him a slider/fastball guy with a couple change ups per night thrown in for good measure. 

[wsnydes]

 

Can spring training games count toward that total?

I was going to say that that might be the only way they get to 80 wins.  

 

I think I'd be elated if they got to 80, but I still think that 70-75 is more realistic unless they add to the pitching staff.  I'd love to be wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

I will take that bet right now.

[PseudoSABR]

Mere regression towards the mean would net the Twins 70 something wins. 

[Tom Froemming]

To be clear, I really liked the article. But I disagree.

 

Possible to get to 80? Sure. But if I had to make a high-stakes prediction I would probably put the win total somewhere in the high 60s. The pitching just isn't there and I don't think Jason Castro alone can boost that unit into respectability. I think Falvey & Levine go into full on rebuild mode at some point. Dozier and Ervin will be traded at/by the deadline.

 

But, it wouldn't be crazy to see regression from the Royals, Tigers and White Sox. Could Cleveland also have a World Series hangover? Maybe. With the weighted schedule, those AL Central foes slipping would go a long way toward the Twins getting back to .500. But there are just so many things that would need to go right.

[TheLeviathan]

Did we beef up our inter-squad games to help this total?

[Willihammer]

 

I have a theory that I think is sort of backed up by the variance between the two teams in 2015 and ‘16. How else could two similarly talented teams win such a disparate number of games outside of some weird cosmic force? My theory is that there are things in games that teams to steal wins here or there — perhaps more veteran or savvy teams — that the Twins didn’t do in 2016. Some of them may not be easily quantifiable — like stopping the bleeding when a two-run inning becomes a seven-run inning on defense — and some, like pitch framing, are things we’re improving on each and every day to see just how much value it actually provides.

It’s just something I’ve been thinking about, and if I sound like Doc Brown, I totally get it. My basic theory is that I really think WAR is good at giving us a general idea of how many games a team can win over the replacement level — or at least how good a single player is over their replacement in a given season — but I think there are things inside the margins of the game that good managers and intelligent players can do that make a big difference, too.

Make sense?

Yes.

That was all too common a sight last year. A difficult or even routine play keeping an inning alive, jacking up pitch counts, etc. It snowballs.

Castro should be an improvement. Rosario, for all his recklessness, has the potential to be better. Kepler looks solid. But damn, the left side of the infield has me worried.

[TheLeviathan]

Also, how can you argue for a paragraph that a team can live with a Polanco-Sano left side of the infield because they "won't have their head above water" and then insinuate they'll be playing meaningful games?

 

Isn't one of hte biggest on-going issues defense?  You touch on it, correctly label it, dismiss it as not mattering to a team that won't be all that good and then go on to proclaim they'll be alright.  That doesn't compute.

[Oldgoat_MN]

If coach Allen can get Berrios to calm down we should expect to see a decent year out of him. 

Santiago is younger than Gibson and has had more success, so if you want to be optimistic about Gibson...

I am not counting on anything out of Hughes, personally, but I feel secure that he will not be taking the mound unless he is actually good at getting batters out.

ESan will almost certainly be ESan.

Maybe something out of Mejia. I have limited expectation of Gonsalves.

 

I think you're right. We clearly have to bring 'Little Red Corvette' back.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Liquid lunch today, Warne?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Also, how can you argue for a paragraph that a team can live with a Polanco-Sano left side of the infield because they "won't have their head above water" and then insinuate they'll be playing meaningful games?

 

Isn't one of hte biggest on-going issues defense?  You touch on it, correctly label it, dismiss it as not mattering to a team that won't be all that good and then go on to proclaim they'll be alright.  That doesn't compute.

 

A team that is close to the playoffs can't risk living with the floor that duo provides. A team who is likely to win 75-80 games -- or fewer, if you like -- can. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I like the optimism in the story, and I tend to agree with it. I see Buxton, Sano, Polanco and Dozier having very good years, with regular playing time. I think Buxton will be moved to the leadoff spot, which will help. 

 

I agree with Nick that we need some pitching help – but i disagree with the way he wants us to get it. Yes, we could trade Brian Dozier for a prospect starter, but we need more than that for him. At least two near-ready starters and one or two other prospects. We cannot undersell Dozier. If we don't get what we want for him, we should keep him – he's very valuable on the team both on and off the field. 

 

Let's face it: If the Dodgers really wanted to give up a couple of their top pitching prospects for Dozier, the deal would have been done. And I don't think the Twins will trade Ervin Santana; they need strong leadership in the starting 5.

 

If Santana repeats his capable 2016 season (but with more wins) and guys like Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios and others turn their seasons around, the Twins could have a winning team.

 

Falvey and Levine know what they are doing. They're taking some flyers on possible starting pitchers  (Justin Haley, Nick Tepesch and Ryan Vogelsong, among others), and there are some starting pitchers in the minor leagues that the Twins could call upon (Stephen Gonsalves for one). 

 

The bottom line is this team will not be a 103-loss team in 2017. Winning 80 games would be a step in the right direction, but at least one bad Twins team has done far better the following year; in 1991, they went from worst to first. 

 

A lot can happen over the course of a 162-game season, and I look forward to a much brighter 2017 than 2016. 

[mazeville]

I agree. I think it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the Twins win 80-plus games in 2017. Think about it: Say Phil Hughes comes back and Jose Berrios reaches his potential. Those two alone, plus continued strong performance from Santana and improvement from Gibson, could make the Twins much more competitive.

 

And then imagine if Buxton has a full season like he had a September of last year. The offense will already be good, but you put a .300 hitter with world class speed and 25-homer power at the top of the lineup and suddenly that offense looks very good. And Buxton is elite defensively.

 

Yes, they'll have issues. But it's not hard to imagine the Twins being at least presentable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can spring training games count toward that total?

Did we beef up our inter-squad games to help this total?

Sure. It's the Internet, go for it.

[jimmer]

We had very good sequencing in 2015 and bad sequencing in 2016.  This team is a low 70 win type team.  Could we win 80?  Sure.  If everything goes right like it did in May 2015.

[notoriousgod71]

What's not to love about these Twins?- Pat

[notoriousgod71]

The question is what would a total system success look like?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think 80 is probably on the top end of what they could do, but I like the optimism.  I think they will do much better than the 59 wins they popped out this year as I agree that there's good reason to think people will take steps forward.

[Halsey Hall]

I can see 75 wins and possibly 80 with some luck. It should be more exciting than last season for sure. Some youngster is going to really step it up this season.

[Thrylos]

I bet that the Twins' team that will be there on opening day will be different than the team that is projected to be there now.

 

Way too early to make predictions.

[twins_89]

The only significant off-season roster moves were replacing Suzuki with Castro and letting Plouffe walk. That seems like fairly minimal improvement at best, so I'm not quite sure how the team is expected to improve by 21 games over last season. If the young guys all take another step forward I could see the possibility of winning 70 games as a top end expectation.

[Einstein1]

I'd be shocked if they win 70.  Everything would need to break their way to come anywhere close to 80 and I just don't see that happening.   

[jimmer]

 

The only significant off-season roster moves were replacing Suzuki with Castro and letting Plouffe walk. That seems like fairly minimal improvement at best, so I'm not quite sure how the team is expected to improve by 21 games over last season. If the young guys all take another step forward I could see the possibility of winning 70 games as a top end expectation.

Because just like our talent didn't warrant an 83 win season in 2015, it didn't warrant a 59 win season in 2016.  

 

Assuming we were an 83 win team in 2015, talent-wise, is what got people thinking we'd be playoff contenders in 2016 (yup, quite a few said that) and now some will figure we were actually a 59 win team, talent-wise, using the same 'logic'.

[nicksaviking]

Also to consider, the White Sox, Royals and Tigers all have great potential to be bad teams. A team could still be fairly bad and still win 80 simply by playing nearly 60 games against poor division rivals.

[jimmer]

 

Also to consider, the White Sox, Royals and Tigers all have great potential to be bad teams. A team could still be fairly bad and still win 80 simply by playing nearly 60 games against poor division rivals.

Royals and White Sox were bad teams last year.

[S.]

If we're making this prediction as of today, this is effectively the same team and same pitching staff as last season. Until/unless they make some moves, this is absolutely not an 80 win pitching staff, barring some serious break out seasons by Berrios and multiple other rookie pitchers. I mean, as it stands, our "ace" is Santana and our "2" is...Kyle Gibson?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be a .500 team this season but I'm sure as hell not going to set my expectations that high for the same players and manager that brought us the nightmare that was the 2016 season.

[Han Joelo]

First off, I have a 7 year-old, and I love the metaphor.  I also have a 5 year old, though, and the Dozier thing reminds me of him and the $100 bill he got for Christmas from Grandma.  He went and bought a $40 Lego set, which was pretty cool, and then promptly forgot/didn't know he had so much more buying power.  It was almost like he felt he had to buy something RIGHT THAT VERY second, because if he waited, inflation or something was going to devalue his dollar to the point he would only be able to get the same Lego set later.  The point is, he left $60 of value on the table when he left the store.  He could have gotten TWO $40 sets and another little one to boot.  And some Lego sets are pretty good investments.  The camper-van we got for $40 bucks last Christmas is now selling for $80.  Who knew?

 

As far as the bigger premise, why not?  Start with Sano in the MVP conversation, add Buxton to the fringe of that conversation, and throw out ace in the making Jose DeLeBerrios 2 out of every 5 days, and boom.  75 wins.