Duffey is done... right?

[bluechipper]

 

Rumors says that Jake Odorizzi is available. This would be a good start at rebuilding the starting staff. Not an ace but would likely be our best starter, he will cost but he's under control  for 3 more years.

I would think he'd require a couple of the Twins top 10 prospects. That's a pretty steep price.

[d-mac]

Duffey may be a better as a bullpen guy, but I'd like to point out that his peripherals are pretty decent. He has an xFIP of 4.01 and a SIERA of 4.11. Which is better than anyone to make a start for the Twins this year except Nolasco and Milone. 

 

Despite Jay may proving to be an exception to this, that strategy of using top picks on college relievers isn't working out too well, is it? 

[d-mac]

 

So you would have rather stuck Duffey in the pen to start the season? He had a 3.10 ERA with an 8.2 K/9 last year. He definitely deserved another shot as a starter.

 

There was plenty of room for both. But the FO seemed to disagree. 

[bluechipper]

 

Yes, I would've (assuming we're talking May vs Duffey).  Because a sample size of 10 games is not meaningful at all.  In today's game you need more than 2 pitches to survive in the Majors as a starter long term

A great MLB 10 game debut, along with a 2.54 ERA in 138 innings in AA/AAA makes a strong case that you deserve a chance to start. Even if you don't know if it will work long term, you've got to give him a chance.

[bluechipper]

 

There was plenty of room for both. But the FO seemed to disagree. 

According to the FO, there was room for neither.

[alarp33]

 

A great MLB 10 game debut, along with a 2.54 ERA in 138 innings in AA/AAA makes a strong case that you deserve a chance to start. Even if you don't know if it will work long term, you've got to give him a chance.

 

You don't HAVE to give anyone a chance. You can have the foresight to see "this guy might be a better fit in the bullpen since he can only throw 2 pitches"... but obviously the Twins don't operate that way, he got his 11 starts this year and has gotten pummeled over the last 7

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There are 40-man issues with Darnell, Albers, and Wheeler. All have been DFAed once and so would be lost if sent back to the minors. I don't think any of them have options, although it is possible that Wheeler does.

They all have options.  Darnell has one, and Albers and Wheeler each have two.

Regardless of whether they have been outrighted off the 40-man roster before, they would have to clear waivers before we could even attempt to outright them anyway.  If no one claimed them on waivers, I suspect they would be fairly likely to accept the assignment and defer their free agency until after the season -- are they really going to find a better opportunity as free agents for the next couple months?

 

Also, I think Darnell can be a six year minor league free agent at the end of this season anyway, if not added to the 40 man roster (parts of 7 seasons in the minors, contract renewed 6 times).  And Albers is 30 years old and has been a free agent the past two offseasons, I don't think there should be any concern about potentially losing him either.

 

The one interesting case would be Wheeler -- if we don't add him to the 40-man roster this year, we could still retain his rights for 2017 as long as he went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft.  Although that's probably getting a little too cute.  I'd prefer Duffey but if he gets too hopeless there is a case for swapping the two and seeing what you have in Wheeler in a lost season, and at some point you could make a case for Wheeler over Milone too (who is basically a walking non-tender at this point).

[jorgenswest]

I would give up a lot in prospects to get an established 26 year old starting pitcher. There is nothing in free agency. There isn't enough in the organization. I don't see any other way of getting starting pitching.

 

What if it takes Gonsalves and Polanco to get a guy like Odorizzi? Would you do it? Is it enough?

[jokin]

 

Remember when people were suggesting, not totally implausibly, that he would be our All-star rep?

 

Yeah... good times, good times.

[Dantes929]

He is an excellent pitcher if he has command.   Not a whole lot different than Berrios.   Or any different than a whole lot of other pitchers who have stuff.      Last year I said he was every bit as good as Blyleven which some here considered blasphemy but I stand by it.   Last year his command of his fast ball was very good and his curveball had a little more bite and downward motion, imo.    For one year Diamond had a great curve ball also.   Blyleven never pitched much better than Diamond in 2012 or Duffey last year.   What made him great was that he pitched that well for 20 years.    Duffey, Berrios, Meyer and May are all very capable with very good stuff but command is half the equation.

[old nurse]

 

Yes, I would've (assuming we're talking May vs Duffey).  Because a sample size of 10 games is not meaningful at all.  In today's game you need more than 2 pitches to survive in the Majors as a starter long term

Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, and Detweiler come to mind as recent pitchers who used a 2 pitch mix.

[alarp33]

 

Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, and Detweiler come to mind as recent pitchers who used a 2 pitch mix.

 

Archer has thrown a change up an avg of 7.5% of the time in his career (12% this year), Duffey 2.1% last year and 6.7% this year (the fact that the changeup isn't good, probably plays into him getting lit up)

 

Not sure where you got Wacha from, he throws a Fastball, Cutter, Curve and Change all > 10% of the time.  Detwiler; FB, CB, CH all > 10% of the time (and he stinks, so not sure thats a good example anyways)

[HitInAPinch]

 

There is no way he gets another start... right?

no

[HitInAPinch]

 

Remember when people were suggesting, not totally implausibly, that he would be our All-star rep?

Short memories are cool !!!

 

 

[wsnydes]

 

I would give up a lot in prospects to get an established 26 year old starting pitcher. There is nothing in free agency. There isn't enough in the organization. I don't see any other way of getting starting pitching.

What if it takes Gonsalves and Polanco to get a guy like Odorizzi? Would you do it? Is it enough?

I think another question would be, is this team in the position where trading prospects is wise?  I think in the right situation yes, but it depends on who your getting and what it'll cost.  In general though, I don't feel this team is close enough to being a contender to do such a thing yet.  They need many pieces, not just one or two.  But there are situations where I'd love to see it.  #1 or #2 starters would be on that short list.  In fact, that basically is the list.

[HitInAPinch]

Probably best to sit Duffey for a week, get some working the side. 

[jimbo92107]

Duffey needs to solidify his mechanics a little more in AAA. Right now he's got pipeline fever, where too many pitches are going right down the middle. Can't do that in the Show. Every hitter can kill a pitch right down the middle. Even a guy like Eovaldi for the Yankees can't survive down the middle, and he's got high 90's heat. 

 

Duffey will get back to dominating within a couple weeks of taking the pressure off. Give him a month in Rochester, then bring him right back up. The man's got mid-rotation starter stuff. He just needs to cool his jets for a bit. 

 

One thing I think I noticed: Duffey's posture at the set is stooped over too much, which creates too much muscle tension and burns energy. It looks very uncomfortable. If he'd stand up straighter, in a more relaxed posture, he could take his time centering his balance, which might allow him to command his pitches better. Just stand a little more normally on the mound. 

[ashbury]

There are 40-man issues with Darnell, Albers, and Wheeler. All have been DFAed once and so would be lost if sent back to the minors.

Then bring up Albers and let's hasten that process.

 

Seriously, Jason Wheeler is the only one of these I am at all intrigued by. Seems like he's produced much better results than Dean. Does the stigma of being an 8th round draft pick instead of a studly 3rd rounder really make the difference to the front office, in their 40-man decision making? Don't bring Wheeler up, unless it's to give him a serious shot at sticking.

[Badsmerf]

The team with the worst record in the MLB is concerned with waivers? Seriously?

[old nurse]

 

Archer has thrown a change up an avg of 7.5% of the time in his career (12% this year), Duffey 2.1% last year and 6.7% this year (the fact that the changeup isn't good, probably plays into him getting lit up)

 

Not sure where you got Wacha from, he throws a Fastball, Cutter, Curve and Change all > 10% of the time.  Detwiler; FB, CB, CH all > 10% of the time (and he stinks, so not sure thats a good example anyways)

Wacha when he is good is a predominately 2 pitch pitcher. Archer as well. 

[old nurse]

 

 

Then bring up Albers and let's hasten that process.

 

Seriously, Jason Wheeler is the only one of these I am at all intrigued by. Seems like he's produced much better results than Dean. Does the stigma of being an 8th round draft pick instead of a studly 3rd rounder really make the difference to the front office, in their 40-man decision making? Don't bring Wheeler up, unless it's to give him a serious shot at sticking.

Wheeler didn't fare so well last year at AAA. So far 10 starts.  Maybe he is the fallback plan if Milone is batting practice.

[jorgenswest]

I would go him one more start and extend May in rehab. If start doesn't go well, call back Dean.

[Loosey]

 

I would give up a lot in prospects to get an established 26 year old starting pitcher. There is nothing in free agency. There isn't enough in the organization. I don't see any other way of getting starting pitching.

What if it takes Gonsalves and Polanco to get a guy like Odorizzi? Would you do it? Is it enough?

You would have to question is Gonsalves going to be as good or better than Odorizzi?  And will Odorizzi still be off this roster by the time the Twins are a competing team again?  If either is yes, then you don't do that trade. 

[Craig Arko]

Official announcement: Duffey is starting Sunday in New York.

[twinsnorth49]

Has any actual move been announced yet?

No, that's why this is the "what they should do" thread.

 

Look for the "what they should have done" thread minutes after the move is announced.

[Craig Arko]

No, that's why this is the "what they should do" thread.

Look for the "what they should have done" thread minutes after the move is announced.

Aha, see I thought it was the 'Wednesday and we're bored' thread.

[twinsnorth49]

Aha, see I thought it was the 'Wednesday and we're bored' thread.

Semantics really.

[jimmer]

 

No, that's why this is the "what they should do" thread.

Look for the "what they should have done" thread minutes after the move is announced.

That's assuming any moves happen, or any that means anything.

[Badsmerf]

Official announcement: Duffey is starting Sunday in New York.

Knew it. Over/under 6 runs in 4 innings.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are 40-man issues with Darnell, Albers, and Wheeler. All have been DFAed once and so would be lost if sent back to the minors.

Maybe we have different definitions of the word but I don't consider those "issues".