Dozier This Month

[stringer bell]

I didn't stay up to watch the Twins last night and now see that they lost 5-4. I checked the box score and noticed that Brian Dozier reached twice again. While he's not been spectacular this month, he's been a solid hitter, mostly from the #5 spot. His slash line of .424/.549/.973 is far better than the first two months of the year. Has the improvement been from his luck evening out, the vaunted changes he is supposed to be making by working with the hitting coaches or just having a relatively hot streak? Dozier's overall numbers (.232 BA, slash line of .324/.379/.704) aren't good, but come pretty close to major league average.

 

The first breakdown of Dozier's season would be that some of the extra-base sizzle has gotten away. He's got 12 doubles and seven homers roughly 40% of the way into the season. He's walking a bit more and striking out considerably less. Dozier's OBP would be second best of his career, while the slugging would be the worst.

 

I am thinking that Dozier has made adjustments to deal with what stymied him the second half of last season and the first two months of this season. Those adjustments look to be a mixed bag-more OBP, less pop. I've read a lot of "trade Dozier" comments on this site. Does his improved hitting this month change anyone's mind?

[diehardtwinsfan]

well, if he's made those adjustments, his numbers will climb.  Not sure I agree with everyone that he's a trade candidate (yet), but we do need to see what we have in Polanco at some point.

[Platoon]

I see a few of his ground ball singles slipping through the left side, fouling off more pitches extending AB's because he seems to be pulling less. But I still think there is only a choice of the two Doziers, one or the other. He can't improve his avg and OBP and keep the power.

[jorgenswest]

If the only change is slash stats, it is probably just variation due to sample size. Those numbers need a full season to be useful. Pitch level data and rates stats might have value at the month level.

[Squirrel]

I didn't stay up to watch the Twins last night and now see that they lost 5-4. I checked the box score and noticed that Brian Dozier reached twice again. While he's not been spectacular this month, he's been a solid hitter, mostly from the #5 spot. His slash line of .424/.549/.973 is far better than the first two months of the year. Has the improvement been from his luck evening out, the vaunted changes he is supposed to be making by working with the hitting coaches or just having a relatively hot streak? Dozier's overall numbers (.232 BA, slash line of .324/.379/.704) aren't good, but come pretty close to major league average.

 

The first breakdown of Dozier's season would be that some of the extra-base sizzle has gotten away. He's got 12 doubles and seven homers roughly 40% of the way into the season. He's walking a bit more and striking out considerably less. Dozier's OBP would be second best of his career, while the slugging would be the worst.

 

I am thinking that Dozier has made adjustments to deal with what stymied him the second half of last season and the first two months of this season. Those adjustments look to be a mixed bag-more OBP, less pop. I've read a lot of "trade Dozier" comments on this site. Does his improved hitting this month change anyone's mind?

He's improved, but I'd like to see it sustained now. And I wish they wouldn't bat him 5th, but that's not on him. Whether it's by the deadline or during the offseason, no matter how improved, I still think you trade him and put Polanco there.

[TheLeviathan]

The last 13 games have been nice, but it's 13 games.  The "bad Dozier" has been that way for almost an entire season.  Gotta let this one breath.

 

But Polanco needs to start playing, so someone needs to move and the sooner the better.

[jorgenswest]

Polanco is playing 2B exclusively in AAA. If the Twins see him as a utility option, wouldn't it be wise to play him at SS also?

 

His only path appears 2B and the plan (assuming there is one) must be to move Dozier.

[tobi0040]

Polanco is playing 2B exclusively in AAA. If the Twins see him as a utility option, wouldn't it be wise to play him at SS also?

 

His only path appears 2B and the plan (assuming there is one) must be to move Dozier.

I keep hoping when I come to this site I see "Twins trade Dozier" or "Twins trade Plouffe"

 

Unfortunately I read today that our front office is ranked 28th in the league, so that explains it.

[Vanimal46]

 

Polanco is playing 2B exclusively in AAA. If the Twins see him as a utility option, wouldn't it be wise to play him at SS also?

His only path appears 2B and the plan (assuming there is one) must be to move Dozier.

I don't see why he's not playing 2B, SS, and 3B in AAA right now. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't see why he's not playing 2B, SS, and 3B in AAA right now. 

 

Because he can just learn those next year, when he's up here out of options, and not playing.

[wsnydes]

 

I am thinking that Dozier has made adjustments to deal with what stymied him the second half of last season and the first two months of this season. Those adjustments look to be a mixed bag-more OBP, less pop. I've read a lot of "trade Dozier" comments on this site. Does his improved hitting this month change anyone's mind?

Doesn't change my mind.  My comments are based more on the premise of moving veterans to clear spots for prospects and to acquire more talent, so his improved play only improves that position.

[jorgenswest]

Trading Dozier is a tough call. At some point Polanco is the better offensive player, but that might not be for a few years. Polanco has fewer than 1000 PAs in AA/AAA. It is reasonable to expect a roller coaster of performance over 2016-2017. It is possible that we don't see the walk rate or ISO that he is showing in AAA this year until a few years down the road.

 

Do you trade Dozier if he is more likely to be the better offensive player in 2017?

 

I would if a trade meant a return that improves the pitching staff for next year. I wouldn't if the best return is clearing a spot and moderate prospect in A ball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trading Dozier is a tough call. At some point Polanco is the better offensive player, but that might not be for a few years. Polanco has fewer than 1000 PAs in AA/AAA. It is reasonable to expect a roller coaster of performance over 2016-2017. It is possible that we don't see the walk rate or ISO that he is showing in AAA this year until a few years down the road.

Do you trade Dozier if he is more likely to be the better offensive player in 2017?

I would if a trade meant a return that improves the pitching staff for next year. I wouldn't if the best return is clearing a spot and moderate prospect in A ball.

 

so just keep Polanco in AAA this year, and do what with him next year when he's out of options? Sit him on the bench while Dozier plays full time? 

[USAFChief]

I don't quite share the Polanco love.

 

I think there's an excellent chance Dozier is much better than he's shown in 2016, and a good chance he's better than Polanco over the next couple years.

 

I'd be reluctant to put yet another position in the hands of an unproven rookie. I have no interest in playing for 2019.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

I'd be reluctant to put yet another position in the hands of an unproven rookie. I have no interest in playing for 2019.

 

Hasn't the contend in 2017/2018 ship already sailed?    Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see contention until at least 2019

[USAFChief]

Hasn't the contend in 2017/2018 ship already sailed?    Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see contention until at least 2019

Maybe, maybe not.

 

But I'd sure as heck try to beat that time frame were I in charge. In general I don't think it's possible to plan three years in advance in baseball.

[jorgenswest]

I don't quite share the Polanco love.

I think there's an excellent chance Dozier is much better than he's shown in 2016, and a good chance he's better than Polanco over the next couple years.

I'd be reluctant to put yet another position in the hands of an unproven rookie. I have no interest in playing for 2019.

Agree. This is Polanco's last option year and last opportunity to develop at AAA. They are utilizing the option to add to his limited AAA experience. More emphasis can be spent on pitch recognition, stealing bases and turning a double play. They should also be utilizing that option to expand his position versatility. They won't have this opportunity next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't quite share the Polanco love.

I think there's an excellent chance Dozier is much better than he's shown in 2016, and a good chance he's better than Polanco over the next couple years.

I'd be reluctant to put yet another position in the hands of an unproven rookie. I have no interest in playing for 2019.

 

I share your skepticism....I'd just like some MLB ABs to have more information to better make that judgement. You know, when the team is losing 100 games and all....and he'll be out of options next year....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd sure as heck try to beat that time frame were I in charge. In general I don't think it's possible to plan three years in advance in baseball.

 

Has any team gone from 100 losses to the playoffs the next year? I doubt it. And if so, how many? 

 

It is hard to see them in the playoffs in 2017, it just doesn't happen that way in baseball.

[wsnydes]

 

Agree. This is Polanco's last option year and last opportunity to develop at AAA. They are utilizing the option to add to his limited AAA experience. More emphasis can be spent on pitch recognition, stealing bases and turning a double play. They should also be utilizing that option to expand his position versatility. They won't have this opportunity next year.

This year I don't really care where he's playing every day (AAA or MLB), as long as he's playing every day.  This team needs to quit calling him up to rot on the bench.

[Vanimal46]

 

Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd sure as heck try to beat that time frame were I in charge. In general I don't think it's possible to plan three years in advance in baseball.

I'm with you on it being impossible to plan 3 years in advance in baseball. LaVelle E Neal posted this picture on his Twitter feed of his projected 2016 lineup back in 2013. Even locked in insiders are made to look silly when trying to plan out years in advance. 

EDIT: I don't know how to get a Twitter link to work on here, so I'm typing it out.

Projected 2016 Batting Order: 

 

Byron Buxton LF

Aaron Hicks CF

Joe Mauer 1B

Miguel Sano RF

Oswaldo Arcia DH

Kris Bryant 3B

Eddie Rosario 2B 

Josmil Pinto C

Danny Santana SS

 

Projected 2016 Rotation: This is a good one

 

Alex Meyer

Jose Berrios

Kyle Gibson

Luke Bard

Trevor May

 

Source

[Everyday Eddy]

 

Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd sure as heck try to beat that time frame were I in charge. In general I don't think it's possible to plan three years in advance in baseball.

 

Beating that time frame will take some seriously aggressive maneuvering by the FO,    which shouldn't be out of the question but is a lot to ask from this group.    I'd move Dozier for a decent prospect regardless of position,   but I'm also probably looking further into the future than you and don't see him being decent in 2017/2018 as all that valuabe.

 

[TheLeviathan]

I'd like to see Polanco playing, but that necessitates probably two of the following three guys to be off the roster:  Dozier, Plouffe, Park.  (Assuming Nunez keeps playing.  And he should)

 

But post-ASG I don't see why this team isn't investing every AB it has into guys part of the future.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 I've read a lot of "trade Dozier" comments on this site. Does his improved hitting this month change anyone's mind?

 

Yes, I am now of the mind of "trade Dozier faster".

 

I'm happy he's improved, but I'm ready for Polanco and Dozier is just to streaky, I'm not even close to sold on his improvements.

 

Does this team really want to go into 2016 not knowing what they have in Polanco AND having to keep him on the 25-man? Do we really want to do that again?

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

Do I think this opposite-field-hitting Dozier is the real Dozier?  Noooooooooo.  Is he still the same guy that dedicated spring training to hitting the opposite way, then goes back to 'clean and jerk' type swings in the regular season?  YES

[USAFChief]

Do I think this opposite-field-hitting Dozier is the real Dozier?  Noooooooooo.  Is he still the same guy that dedicated spring training to hitting the opposite way, then goes back to 'clean and jerk' type swings in the regular season?  YES

I don't get the hate for "pull happy" Dozier. He's missing some of the pitches he crushed in the past, that's the problem.

 

He was an all star as a pull hitter. That's not the problem. If only using half the field was a disqualifier, why don't people jump on Mauer? Hell, Ted Williams.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

why don't people jump on Mauer? Hell, Ted Williams.

Take it easy with the comparisons, Chief. You might pull something. 

[wsnydes]

 

I don't get the hate for "pull happy" Dozier. He's missing some of the pitches he crushed in the past, that's the problem.
 

I agree.  I don't really care how you get to your BA.  Is it productive or not, that's all I really care about.

 

Sort of like offensive profiles for a respective defensive position.  I couldn't care less what your offensive profile is for a given defensive position as long as that production is coming from somewhere in the lineup.  It's a team sport for a reason.  

[Taildragger8791]

I don't think Dozier has demonstrated that he's going the other way with his swing yet, so I'm not sure what's changed other than a little luck and squaring up a few more balls. He still only has 4 opposite field hits all year, batting .182 on balls hit that way. Looking at spray charts it seems he is hitting up the middle a little more which could be a sign of progress, but it's hard to tell. I don't have time right now to break down the month-to-month and compare it to previous years to really tell, but that might indicate a change in approach.

[d-mac]

I think this is Dozier getting more luck than making any sort of adjustment. His BABIP jumped from .208 and .242 in April and May to .357 so far in June. He's hitting roughly the same number of line drives, and slightly more ground balls and fewer fly balls. He's had a slight uptick in Hard Hit % and a slight decrease of Soft Hit %. But he is pulling the ball significantly more and going up the middle and oppo significantly less than early in the season. 

 

He seems like he has learned nothing, but is finally receiving favor from the BABIP gods, which had smited him early in the season. His BABIP splits by contact type are about what they were last year, so I'd expect him to hit around what his current triple slash is now- .232/.324/.379