What happens when Danny Santana is activated?

[curt1965]

I heard today (somewhere?) that Santana was heading out for a rehab assignment soon. But when he is activated, someone is going to go. Any ideas? Could the pitching staff go back to 7 relievers? The way our starters get hammered-not likely. So someone off the bench could get sent down/DFA'd. Kepler? Arcia? Or possibly Danny himself-activated and DFA'd. Maybe I'm missing something. Thoughts?

[stringer bell]

Kepler or Buxton. That would be my first thought. If there was any consistency at all from the rotation, they might be able to dial back to seven relievers, but Dean's quality start was the first in a long time for the beleaguered starters.

[CampQ]

Can a rehab stint last a few months?

[a-wan]

You beg, beg, beg Park to except a AAA assignment.

[Pius Jefferson]

Phantom injury for somebody like Arcia.

[mumoo13]

My guess is Kepler or Buxton, and then Santana and Arcia would platoon in right. Which wouldn't be terrible, since it would be good to have Arcia play more while still having Kepler and Buxton play every day.

[Mr. Brooks]

You beg, beg, beg Park to except a AAA assignment.

I don't think Park has a say in the matter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would think Buxton or Park gets sent down.  My money would be on Buxton if I was a betting man.

[goulik]

Buxtons BA, OBP, and slugging (236/283/364 last 15 games) are all up over his season averages. It's not when you should be sending him down. (His OPS over the last 15 is 70 points higher than his season average) I don't think he should be sent down for a bad series against a very good team.

 

Kepler is also doing better recently and I think he had a good series especially considering the competition. (733 OPS, last 7 games) Sending either of these guys down now is a bad message, and a bad plan for the future. They need to develop here now I believe.

 

Park is hitting 185/279/352 over the last 15 games (very similar to his last 30 games btw) and sending him down would give Arcia chances at DH. Maybe he could even build a little trade value. Send Park down until the next injury, or a trade of one of these guys that just don't fit in long term.

[HitInAPinch]

There will be much singing and dancing! 

 

As Dozier keeps moving up towards his career BA [ .239 ] he will be safe. 

Park:  for what was paid to him, you don't farm him out this quickly.

Buxton is looking a lot better this time around.  I would really hesitate to send him down just yet.

Grossman may be sliding back to earth.  Or this is a short down-spell like Mauer had.

 

I'd like to see a faster person in LF than Grossman, but the lineup with him, Buxton and Kepler in RF is much better than what the Twins have had this season.

 

I'd really like a bench that starts with Nunez and Santana.  Nunez, of course, will be in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future.

 

To me, Arcia is the guy to go.  Maybe he'll end up hitting and fielding better elsewhere.  But this is no David Ortiz situation.  

[Platoon]

You can send Kepler or Buxton down, and play the "he needs more time in the minors" card!

 

Or you can send Park down and play the "I had no idea he couldnt hit" card!

 

Decisions, decisions, decisions!

[jorgenswest]

Kepler has 610 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has 411.

 

Just went through the Cardinals. Other than the recent return of Wong, players seem more ready when they arrive. Of the guys that started in their organization, most have over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA. Molina had 547. He was ready defensively but struggled early at the plate. It wasn't until his 4th season that he had an OPS above 700. It was 595 in his third season. We would be calling for his release here with that performance.

 

It is not a bad plan to develop players in the minors and give them long looks at each level. It will not hurt the development of either Kepler or Buxton to send them down. Bouncing guys back and forth without a plan isn't helpful. While the Cardinals are giving most of their guys over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA, the Twins are calling up Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and Rosario with around half that of the Cardinals. I don't think it is working.

 

If the return of Santana means Kepler or Buxton gets more time in AAA, it isn't a bad thing. If they decide to keep Buxton up for his defense, they may need to be patient with his bat through 2017.

[Platoon]

Grossman may be sliding back to earth.Or this is a short down-spell like Mauer had. >>>>>. When Mauer regresses in this day and age it's to .280, when Grossmann regresses its to .230. . I do agree it would not surprise me to see Arcia go. For his sake I hope he does, it's just not working out here. Obviously he is to blame, but I do think the management has some responsibility. Why? Because there is no one who actually knows what they are looking for. There is no consistent strategy or plan discernible. I have never seen such a fly by the seat of your pants operation before. They make the Timberwolves of past years look organized!

[Vanimal46]

It should be Park. Shout out to goulik for posting his stats... Buzz, your girlfriend, WOOF. Since it's the 2016 Twins, it's probably going to be Kepler or Buxton. And D Santana will find his way back into a starting role.... Ugh. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxtons BA, OBP, and slugging (236/283/364 last 15 games) are all up over his season averages. It's not when you should be sending him down. (His OPS over the last 15 is 70 points higher than his season average) I don't think he should be sent down for a bad series against a very good team.

Buxton's early season numbers were so bad, that improvement upon that baseline, while encouraging, shouldn't disqualify him from a demotion.

 

Also, no one is arguing that Buxton needs to be sent down today, Danny Santana is at least a week away.  He has plenty of time to show his weekend was a just a bad series.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

I would think Buxton or Park gets sent down.  My money would be on Buxton if I was a betting man.

 

At least Buxton can play defense - not sure he has much to gain from a AAA gig at this point.  Park is only valuable as a hitter and he is not getting it done.  I think time in AAA getting his head and swing back together would make sense.   

[Thrylos]

Trade Dozier/Plouffe.  Done deal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler has 610 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has 411.

Just went through the Cardinals. Other than the recent return of Wong, players seem more ready when they arrive. Of the guys that started in their organization, most have over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA. Molina had 547. He was ready defensively but struggled early at the plate. It wasn't until his 4th season that he had an OPS above 700. It was 595 in his third season. We would be calling for his release here with that performance.

It is not a bad plan to develop players in the minors and give them long looks at each level. It will not hurt the development of either Kepler or Buxton to send them down. Bouncing guys back and forth without a plan isn't helpful. While the Cardinals are giving most of their guys over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA, the Twins are calling up Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and Rosario with around half that of the Cardinals. I don't think it is working.

If the return of Santana means Kepler or Buxton gets more time in AAA, it isn't a bad thing. If they decide to keep Buxton up for his defense, they may need to be patient with his bat through 2017.

 

Partly that is because the TWins drag their players thru the lower minors, then rush them thru the upper minors. 100% opposite of the Cardinals.

[jorgenswest]

Partly that is because the TWins drag their players thru the lower minors, then rush them thru the upper minors. 100% opposite of the Cardinals.

It doesn't seem like they can fix it by rushing them through the upper levels though.

 

I am very interested in what teams do like the Cardinals. I did look at Carpenter because I know he was a college player. He had around 1500 plate appearances in the minors and most of them at AA and AAA. He came up at 26 ready to be successful. I really need to look at the paths of the guys that started at 18. They key could have been coming up at 26.

[David HK]

Well, let's see, we've got DanSan, and don't forget- Mastroianni coming back, and Molly likes the 'vets', so let's get rid of that crappy Buxton and lame Kepler.  FU, future!  Let's get this season back on track!  Stick him in the 3 hole, and back him up with Plouffe and Dozey, and we're on the way!

[Mike Sixel]

 

It doesn't seem like they can fix it by rushing them through the upper levels though.

I am very interested in what teams do like the Cardinals. I did look at Carpenter because I know he was a college player. He had around 1500 plate appearances in the minors and most of them at AA and AAA. He came up at 26 ready to be successful. I really need to look at the paths of the guys that started at 18. They key could have been coming up at 26.

 

Elite players come up when they are 22 or so.......as a rule. Of course there are exceptions.

 

I don't think rushing guys thru AA and AAA is a good idea either. But, if you are going to stall them in EST, low A, high A for three years......then they are likely to get rushed thru AA and AAA since they are peaking in athleticism already.

 

And, for RP, I'm not sure you can ever get "enough" innings in AA and AAA.

 

BTW, their "draft a bunch of RP' strategy has been AWFUL so far. Awful. It has delivered zero players. Zero.

[wsnydes]

 

Well, let's see, we've got DanSan, and don't forget- Mastroianni coming back, and Molly likes the 'vets', so let's get rid of that crappy Buxton and lame Kepler.  FU, future!  Let's get this season back on track!  Stick him in the 3 hole, and back him up with Plouffe and Dozey, and we're on the way!

I'd laugh harder at this if I didn't think that there was even a remote chance of this occurring.  Sadly, I think there is a chance...  

[Vanimal46]

 

It doesn't seem like they can fix it by rushing them through the upper levels though.

I am very interested in what teams do like the Cardinals. I did look at Carpenter because I know he was a college player. He had around 1500 plate appearances in the minors and most of them at AA and AAA. He came up at 26 ready to be successful. I really need to look at the paths of the guys that started at 18. They key could have been coming up at 26.

Check out Randal Grichuk as an example. Signed at 17 years old, got through A+ by his age 20 season, 1 full season at AA, most of the next season at AAA, then MLB debut at age 22. Still managed over 1000 ABs between AA and AAA. 

[jorgenswest]

Check out Randal Grichuk as an example. Signed at 17 years old, got through A+ by his age 20 season, 1 full season at AA, most of the next season at AAA, then MLB debut at age 22. Still managed over 1000 ABs between AA and AAA.

 

I plan to look at Grichuk and several others. It will take some time controlling for college/high school and pitcher/position player. Grichuk is a good example and similar to Buxton in age at A+. The difference is the Cardinals kept him in AA for his entire age 21 season. He spent most of his age 22 season (Buxton's current age) in AAA. That year he had two short call ups (8 and 10 games likely due to injury) from AAA before finally hitting the majors for good on August 26.

 

If the Twins had kept Buxton in AA all last year and AAA most of this year, would that have given him a better chance for success in 2017?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I plan to look at Grichuk and several others. It will take some time controlling for college/high school and pitcher/position player. Grichuk is a good example and similar to Buxton in age at A+. The difference is the Cardinals kept him in AA for his entire age 21 season. He spent most of his age 22 season (Buxton's current age) in AAA. That year he had two short call ups (8 and 10 games likely due to injury) from AAA before finally hitting the majors for good on August 26.

If the Twins had kept Buxton in AA all last year and AAA most of this year, would that have given him a better chance for success in 2017?

 

Probably, yes. 

 

But, we will never really know for sure. Not every player is the same.......but in retrospect, yes, Buxton should not have been up last year for more than a taste. 

[d-mac]

 

Partly that is because the TWins drag their players thru the lower minors, then rush them thru the upper minors. 100% opposite of the Cardinals.

 

You're welcome. 

[d-mac]

 

Kepler has 610 PAs between AA and AAA. Buxton has 411.

Just went through the Cardinals. Other than the recent return of Wong, players seem more ready when they arrive. Of the guys that started in their organization, most have over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA. Molina had 547. He was ready defensively but struggled early at the plate. It wasn't until his 4th season that he had an OPS above 700. It was 595 in his third season. We would be calling for his release here with that performance.

It is not a bad plan to develop players in the minors and give them long looks at each level. It will not hurt the development of either Kepler or Buxton to send them down. Bouncing guys back and forth without a plan isn't helpful. While the Cardinals are giving most of their guys over 1000 PAs in AA and AAA, the Twins are calling up Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and Rosario with around half that of the Cardinals. I don't think it is working.

If the return of Santana means Kepler or Buxton gets more time in AAA, it isn't a bad thing. If they decide to keep Buxton up for his defense, they may need to be patient with his bat through 2017.

 

When I did my research regarding the top 15 position players in fWAR I found something very similar. Most spent significant time in AA and/or AAA. The ones that were fast-tracked were top prospects that dominated (900+ OPS) with strong BB/K ratios (.80+). The players that fell into neither category took a long time to establish themselves at the major league level requiring multiple stints in AAA. 

[tobi0040]

Buxton's early season numbers were so bad, that improvement upon that baseline, while encouraging, shouldn't disqualify him from a demotion.

 

Also, no one is arguing that Buxton needs to be sent down today, Danny Santana is at least a week away.  He has plenty of time to show his weekend was a just a bad series.

We should not be putting anyone of consequence in AAA for Danny Santana.

 

In reality, all bets are off.

[curt1965]

To me, this might be the first "come to Jesus" moment for the Twins: do you play the youngsters (Buxton and Kepler), and give the fans a reason to watch an inferior product, or maybe do the right thing and send them to Triple A to dominate and get the experience they obviously need?

[David HK]

 

I'd laugh harder at this if I didn't think that there was even a remote chance of this occurring.  Sadly, I think there is a chance...  

A scary thought, no?  Any move to make the situation worse, I wouldn't be surprised- - this current regime, whew....