Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

nicksaviking · February 8, 2018

All good stuff, this in particular.

Yes, yes do this one regardless if you sign Darvish.

2:41 If the Twins were to opt for a trade as a way to get SP help would a Kepler/Gordon package for Archer be enough and/or a good use of their resources?

Keith Law
2:41 My guess is the Rays would insist on more, probably Romero too. Although Gordon fits the Rays' m.o. of acquiring shortstops who don't project to stay at shortstop.

Mike Sixel · February 8, 2018

I asked the logical follow up, about Gordon moving off of SS, but the chat was pretty much over. Maybe I'll tweet him...

nicksaviking · February 8, 2018

I asked the logical follow up, about Gordon moving off of SS, but the chat was pretty much over. Maybe I'll tweet him...

It sounded like the dig was aimed at TB.

It seems to me most people are way too critical of defensive capabilities of minor league shortstops. There are only two types of minor league shortstops defensively, those with a standout glove or those that will have to move. There's no room for the Jorge Poloncos or the Asdrubal Cabreras or the Trea Turners or Javier Baezs of the world.

TheLeviathan · February 9, 2018

It sounded like the dig was aimed at TB.

It seems to me most people are way too critical of defensive capabilities of minor league shortstops. There are only two types of minor league shortstops defensively, those with a standout glove or those that will have to move. There's no room for the Jorge Poloncos or the Asdrubal Cabreras or the Trea Turners or Javier Baezs of the world.

Another symptom of the difficulty of scouting defense with any accuracy methinks. I've long since decided to be "meh' about what I hear about defense from minor leaguers.

Mike Sixel · February 9, 2018

I won't copy the whole thing here....but FGs awesome prospect week continues today, with players KATOH loves:

F1 – Zack Granite, Minnesota (Profile)

Why KATOH Loves Him
Granite’s back for his second tour of duty on the All-KATOH team, and frankly, his prospect case has only improved..........

Why Scouts Don’t (Eric Longenhagen)

Granite’s swing is extremely linear ..........

My Thoughts
After destroying Triple-A pitching, ............... Even if Granite just hits a little bit, he’s a solid regular.

Three Twins make the second team:

Garver

Wade

Littel

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-all-katoh-team/

ashbury · February 9, 2018

Even if Granite just hits a little bit, he’s a solid regular.

He's really regarded by them as a plus CF? He needs to be, if "hits just a little" is how it plays out, and I've seen nothing about his defense to assume anything other than fair-to-middling at this very competitive spot.

Mike Sixel · February 9, 2018

He's really regarded by them as a plus CF? He needs to be, if "hits just a little" is how it plays out, and I've seen nothing about his defense to assume anything other than fair-to-middling at this very competitive spot.

The my thoughts were from the article, not Mike's....

Mike Sixel · February 9, 2018

Hack Wilson
9:49 It feels like the longer the Darvish situation drags on the slighter the Twins chances get. Does this feel accurate to you?

Jeff Sullivan
9:50 That's my feeling. I think -- I *think* -- the only reason he's still out there unsigned is because he's waiting for the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2-9-18/

jkcarew · February 9, 2018

Keith Law
...I'd be less concerned about getting the most efficient deal specifically and more about getting the marginal wins I need to get into the playoffs. So I'd be fine overpaying on an AAV basis - and if anything I'd overpay in the short-term to try to get one or two fewer years at the end of the contract, when, as you said, most of them have long gone bad.

SJ
3:01 Do you see Zach Granite ever hitting enough to be a starter? If so, is his ceiling Kevin Pillar or more Kiermaier/someone else?
Keith Law
3:02 I don't.

Thanks for continuing to share this stuff.

"Value of Marginal Wins". These are the correct questions imo...a reasonably accurate view of the number of marginal wins provided by the player, combined with the expected value of each win. This absolutely lends itself to higher AAV and shorter term. Each additional year presents diminished expectation of marginal wins provided (assuming at/past prime player), and at the same time, more risk regarding how each win should be valued.

I'm not ready to write Granite off. A starter is not defined in a vacuum. Just because you don't want three Zach Granites in your outfield, doesn't mean you can't have one. Check out Dan Gladden's numbers from '87 to '91, and tell me if you think Granite, with a some adjustments and opportunity, doesn't have a chance to be that player. (Ignoring the post-season heroics...although, I'd take those as well!)

Han Joelo · February 10, 2018

Turns out Jay Jaffe's second to last article for S.I. was about the Twins, in his "Spend to Win" series. Pretty much arguing for applying those marginal Wins concepts, in my interpretation. Nothing too groundbreaking, but some decent ideas.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/06/minnesota-twins-free-agency-yu-darvish

And at the end of this, his last S.I. article, he announces his move to become a senior writer at Fangraphs.

Indicative of the shift in the baseball world, when a guy leaves Sports Illustrated for a job at Fangraphs? Whatever your opinion, good for him, and I think, good for Fangraphs.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/08/seattle-mariners-free-agency

jimmer · February 10, 2018

not sure if this has been posted: 'The Twins really, really need starting pitching.'

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-really-really-need-starting-pitching/

gunnarthor · February 10, 2018

Turns out Jay Jaffe's second to last article for S.I. was about the Twins, in his "Spend to Win" series. Pretty much arguing for applying those marginal Wins concepts, in my interpretation. Nothing too groundbreaking, but some decent ideas.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/06/minnesota-twins-free-agency-yu-darvish

And at the end of this, his last S.I. article, he announces his move to become a senior writer at Fangraphs.
Indicative of the shift in the baseball world, when a guy leaves Sports Illustrated for a job at Fangraphs? Whatever your opinion, good for him, and I think, good for Fangraphs.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/08/seattle-mariners-free-agency

Jaffe doesnm't really fit in SI. SI is more reporting and fangraphs is more analyzing (or trying to). Jaffe seems a better fit it fangraphs. I'm not sure it says anything about either publication.

Vanimal46 · February 10, 2018

not sure if this has been posted: 'The Twins really, really need starting pitching.'

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-really-really-need-starting-pitching/

210 combined innings from Hughes and Slegers would be painful.

I also liked the "what are they friggin' waiting for?" comment from the non-Twins fan below. I don't know what else these guys need to see in order to be bold.

Han Joelo · February 11, 2018

Jaffe doesnm't really fit in SI. SI is more reporting and fangraphs is more analyzing (or trying to). Jaffe seems a better fit it fangraphs. I'm not sure it says anything about either publication.

I was thinking about thirty years ago, before the internet, and even before ESPN became mainstream, when SI was the pinnacle of sports reporting, and the pinnacle of prospect/statistical analysis writing was writing the bios on the back of all those Hensley Meulens rookie cards I stockpiled to fund the early retirement I was supposed to have entered right about now.

Indeed though, nowadays, this is probably a lateral move at worst for Jaffe financially, and from the standpoint of prestige and being able to write what he wants, an upgrade.

jimmer · February 11, 2018

Bill James has Buxton as the 8th best overall CF in baseball.

jimmer · February 11, 2018

Bill James has Buxton as the 8th best overall CF in baseball.

And Preston Wilson thinks Trout is the 3rd best CF in baseball.Which is weird since there is only one player that may challenge him for best player in baseball and he doesn't play CF.

Vanimal46 · February 13, 2018

Fangraphs related. Eno Sarris is moving on. Rough winter for them with Dave Cameron and Eno no longer on staff.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thanks-for-reading/

Follow up: Eno Sarris announced this morning on Twitter he's joining The Athletic.

I'm getting closer to making the purchase for access to their site.

gunnarthor · February 13, 2018

And Preston Wilson thinks Trout is the 3rd best CF in baseball.Which is weird since there is only one player that may challenge him for best player in baseball and he doesn't play CF.

Is it based just on defense? Link?

jimmer · February 13, 2018

Is it based just on defense? Link?

nope, not in defense only, overall best CFs which includes all aspects of perfromance. These are being shown on MLB network (and I think there is a running article on the MLB site that gives the Shredders rankings). Its a series they do every year called top 10 now (or maybe top 10 right now) they do it for every position including relief and starting pitching. His reason for marking down Trout was defense and he brought up DRS...but then he had Blackmon #1. Guess he didnt look at HIS DRS ;-)

Everyone else on the show had Trout as the no doubt #1 overall CF.

Squirrel · February 13, 2018

Follow up: Eno Sarris announced this morning on Twitter he's joining The Athletic.

I'm getting closer to making the purchase for access to their site.

Yeah, I've been thinking the same ... has anyone purchased a subscription? Worth it?

Vanimal46 · February 13, 2018

Yeah, I've been thinking the same ... has anyone purchased a subscription? Worth it?

I'd like to know the same. They're building an all star baseball lineup of writers, that's for sure.

Ken Rosenthal, Jayson Stark, Petter Gammons, and I'm sure they're going to have Eno focus on analytics related topics.

Twins33 · February 13, 2018

Yeah, I've been thinking the same ... has anyone purchased a subscription? Worth it?

I'd like to know the same. They're building an all star baseball lineup of writers, that's for sure.

Ken Rosenthal, Jayson Stark, Petter Gammons, and I'm sure they're going to have Eno focus on analytics related topics.

I have. I haven't read a ton of baseball stuff yet, but it seems very worth it. The quality of the content seems elevated from what I'm used to reading in the local papers or other websites (the free ones).

The original reason I got it was because the MN wild beat writer went from the startribune to the Athletic. Russo is by far the best writer for the Wild and in my opinion, between the Twins and the Wild..he's the best writer period. I don't read any Vikings things, even though I am a fan.

I don't know anything about this new Twins writer at the Athletic, Dan Hayes, except for the fact that he used to write about the White Sox. He has a couple things posted, but I haven't read them yet. As far as the national guys go, if you like them and miss their reports it's worth it. I'd say the stuff they write is also elevated. I don't read every single story out there and have looked at a limited number of baseball content so far but the few things I have read were great. And I don't think those stories would have been done otherwise, or if they had, not such a deep dive into it when there's word limit restrictions and all that.

You can bookmark specific writers, which wasn't the case when I subscribed in September or October so if you like Rosenthal you can bring up just all of his stuff if that's what you want. I have the Twins and Wild bookmarked, but I will definitely be adding ones for the writers I like too.

They often send out links on twitter which will give a 20-30% discount if you sign up using that link. I mostly see those from the writers tweets rather than the main twitter for the Athletic. I'm one of the cheapest people ever. I've never had a subscription to a paper. I don't pay for baseball America or anything like that, even though I do like their stuff. I don't go to movie theaters unless it's for $5. I don't think a burger and fries should be more expensive than $8-$10. I am cheap! And I recommend subscribing.

Squirrel · February 13, 2018

I have. I haven't read a ton of baseball stuff yet, but it seems very worth it. The quality of the content seems elevated from what I'm used to reading in the local papers or other websites (the free ones).

The original reason I got it was because the MN wild beat writer went from the startribune to the Athletic. Russo is by far the best writer for the Wild and in my opinion, between the Twins and the Wild..he's the best writer period. I don't read any Vikings things, even though I am a fan.

I don't know anything about this new Twins writer at the Athletic, Dan Hayes, except for the fact that he used to write about the White Sox. He has a couple things posted, but I haven't read them yet. As far as the national guys go, if you like them and miss their reports it's worth it. I'd say the stuff they write is also elevated. I don't read every single story out there and have looked at a limited number of baseball content so far but the few things I have read were great. And I don't think those stories would have been done otherwise, or if they had, not such a deep dive into it when there's word limit restrictions and all that.

You can bookmark specific writers, which wasn't the case when I subscribed in September or October so if you like Rosenthal you can bring up just all of his stuff if that's what you want. I have the Twins and Wild bookmarked, but I will definitely be adding ones for the writers I like too.

They often send out links on twitter which will give a 20-30% discount if you sign up using that link. I mostly see those from the writers tweets rather than the main twitter for the Athletic. I'm one of the cheapest people ever. I've never had a subscription to a paper. I don't pay for baseball America of anything like that, even though I do like their stuff. I don't go to movie theaters unless it's for $5. I don't think a burger and fries should be more expensive than $8-$10. I am cheap! And I recommend subscribing.

This is all good to know ... thanks!

From what I've seen (on Twitter, so take that for what it is) Sox fans seem to really like Dan Hayes and are sorry he's now writing for the Twins!

Twins33 · February 13, 2018

This is all good to know ... thanks!

From what I've seen (on Twitter, so take that for what it is) Sox fans seem to really like Dan Hayes and are sorry he's now writing for the Twins!

Yeah, I've seen a couple of those tweets as well. So hopefully it's just another good reason to have it/get it.

Mike Sixel · February 16, 2018

Chris, the owner of KATOH, has also left fangraphs? Sigh.

Vanimal46 · February 16, 2018

Chris, the owner of KATOH, has also left fangraphs? Sigh.

Let me guess, the Athletic. Fangraphs has taken a ton of blows to their staff... Sad, really.

Mike Sixel · February 16, 2018

Let me guess, the Athletic. Fangraphs has taken a ton of blows to their staff... Sad, really.

I don't know yet, just saw it in a chat. I will really miss KATOH.

Thrylos · February 16, 2018

Yeah, I've been thinking the same ... has anyone purchased a subscription? Worth it?

Depends on what you are looking for:

- it is not a place that will exclusively break news or have exclusive material from the Twins' ballpark, clubhouse or front office. Twitter and the PP and ST beats are the places you want to go for those (and are all on twitter.)

- if you are looking for analysis regarding what teams should do etc, it might be the place to go. At least in the off-season. Not sure that their game analysis during the season will look like.

I have been on the fence for a while. Not sure that it justifies the price. If Rosenthal was breaking news there exclusively, for example, it might change my mind.

February 16, 2018

Chris, the owner of KATOH, has also left fangraphs? Sigh.

Bummer. KATOH is fun, especially when it ranks 6-8 Twins guys in the top 40.

Mike Sixel · February 16, 2018

Let me guess, the Athletic. Fangraphs has taken a ton of blows to their staff... Sad, really.

Worse. A secret job that does not allow us to even pay to see his content.

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