Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry, I'm referring to Sawchick.

 

got it.

 

I think we've all beaten this horse, and I prefer this thread to be about links, not long discussions. so I'll stop now.

[USAFChief]

 

Ya, he never said that. Neither did Travis. And, the KBO disagrees with you. As does European Soccer. It's not about models at all, it's actually about actual wins and losses mattering more. The exact opposite of models, even.

It's just how I read it.  Probably my bias about Fangraphs showing through, but nonetheless, it's how I interpret it.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

'Buxton said it was about a year and a half ago that Twins officials approached him with Statcast data to illustrate how he might better take advantage of his athletic gifts to save runs. Most players, of course, are likely to embrace the advice of coaching staff; the addition of cold, hard, unfeeling data, though, makes that advice even more persuasive.'

 

'We’ve seen Statcast tools help inform hitters on how to improve swings and approaches. Buxton says it can also help defensive play. And Buxton’s testimony is important as he has emerged as the top outfield defender in the game this season, and he is a significant reason why the Twins have enjoyed a defensive turnaround (-46 DRS in 2016 to +11 this season). Buxton and his glove are reasons the Twins are on the cusp of a postseason appearance.'

 

Those math guys and all their nerdy worthless info...

 

BTW, I wonder who will be the next FANGRAPHS writer hired by a team to work in the FO?  Pretty soon, if Fangraphs loses too much more talent to silly organizations who think these writers know enough about baseball to help their organization, they might get desperate and hire Harold Reynolds or Jon Heyman to write to there.  Nahhh, they'd never stoop that low.

 

It's the "year and a half ago" that caught my eye. That came from Jack Goin and TR's administration...  I guess they weren't completely closed off to the stats thing after all.

[Mike Sixel]

horpe: What’s Lewis Thorpe’s upside if he can stay healthy?

 

 

Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more, but he has to show some durability first

 

 

German: How should the Twins approach the wild card game? On paper, they look overmatched, but as we know, baseball is weird.

 

 

Keith Law: If they do anything novel, it should be handling the pitching staff like there’s an extended fire drill. Start Berrios, because he’s your best starter, but have all hands on deck, and if you need seven pitchers to keep the game close, you do it. Forget the traditional model – starter goes 5-6, setup guy in 8th, closer in 9th – and just get outs. They will be overmatched, but they have at least design enough for the luck to help them.

 

Chris: Are the Twins a good reason to change the wild card format or a good reason to keep it as is?

 

 

Keith Law: I don’t like the expanded WC, but MLB likes it – owners like it, and everyone likes the extra money – so I doubt it’s going anywhere. My opinion is that it just devalues the regular season a little bit more

 

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

[Vanimal46]

Minnesota Twins featured on The Ringer...

"Cinderella in October"

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW recently posted an Insider on ESPN....a full paragraph on Tyler Jay.....he seemed impressed overall, said the Twins making him a starter has probably passed (not all national readers would know that), but that some team might still try if he were elsewhere. From how I read it, if Jay is healthy, he'll be in the bullpen next year if his stuff plays like what KLAW saw.

 

Other than that, he said the AFL was waaaaaaaaay down in talent this year from the games he was able to see.

[gunnarthor]

I hadn't realized Jay was in the AFL. Thanks for sharing.

[gheggs42]

I'd like to see Rogers and Jay the primary lefties in the pen next year. I think Jay will be solid

[Mike Sixel]

1:16
David: Who is the Twins’ best SS prospect: Polanco, Gordon, Lewis, Javier, other?

 

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Gordon, but only because I think Lewis is a CF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-1017-2/

[Dman]

 

1:16
David: Who is the Twins’ best SS prospect: Polanco, Gordon, Lewis, Javier, other?

 

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Gordon, but only because I think Lewis is a CF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-1017-2/

 

While I agree given what I have read that Lewis seems destined for the outfield it would be pretty cool if he remained at short and he and Buxton were in the lineup together turning walks into doubles.  That would put a lot of pressure on the other teams we play.  I say give it some time.  If Polanco can do it why can't Lewis?

[jimmer]

Lewis will take over CF for Buxton when Buxton leaves via free agency ;-)

[sthpstm]

 

While I agree given what I have read that Lewis seems destined for the outfield it would be pretty cool if he remained at short and he and Buxton were in the lineup together turning walks into doubles.  That would put a lot of pressure on the other teams we play.  I say give it some time.  If Polanco can do it why can't Lewis?

In their draft report cards, BA noted Lewis has improved significantly at SS since signing...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-grades-minnesota-twins/#stFCa8bmZJrv66jD.97

 

[amjgt]

Given that it's behind the paywall... any other general thoughts about the players we drafted (the free stuff didn't even get to the part about his improvement at SS)

[snepp]

 

Lewis will take over CF for Buxton when Buxton leaves via free agency ;-)

 

Booooooo!

[ashbury]

Booooooo!

We'll make him a Qualifying Offer and reap that sweet sweet compensation pick.

[Dman]

 

Lewis will take over CF for Buxton when Buxton leaves via free agency ;-)

That very well could happen.  Lewis has a chance if everything goes right to make it in three years but if it takes his bat a while to come around it could very well take him five and Buck will be gone or on his way out.

 

If Buxton turns out the way we think he will I don't see the Twins doing a long term 50 million dollar a year deal when they have his replacement for $500,000.  They will need that money for pitching.  So I get your point but let a guy dream will ya.

[Mike Sixel]

dbminn
1:22 Have you seen Tyler Jay throw in AFL? Any thoughts? Also - Chris Paul is playing for Surprise. He's never been a "prospect" but had a good year in A+ for the Twins. Does he have a chance?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:23 Jay was 92-94 for Keith in his first appearance and then 89-92 for me late last week. I think both breaking balls can be effective but obviously there's more to think about than just stuff with Jay, because of the injuries.

[Vanimal46]

 

dbminn
1:22 Have you seen Tyler Jay throw in AFL? Any thoughts? Also - Chris Paul is playing for Surprise. He's never been a "prospect" but had a good year in A+ for the Twins. Does he have a chance?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:23 Jay was 92-94 for Keith in his first appearance and then 89-92 for me late last week. I think both breaking balls can be effective but obviously there's more to think about than just stuff with Jay, because of the injuries.

 

That's a significant difference in speed... 

[sthpstm]

 

Given that it's behind the paywall... any other general thoughts about the players we drafted (the free stuff didn't even get to the part about his improvement at SS)

The player position grades are pretty much dominated by Lewis, with a couple of mentions of Rooker. The pitcher grades are dispersed between Enlow and Leach and a Barnes mention. If you followed draft coverage/scouting reports here and other places like Fangraphs, there is nothing too new, except for Lewis being a potential plus defender at SS. 

http://www.baseballa...a8bmZJrv66jD.97

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Lewis will take over CF for Buxton when Buxton leaves via free agency ;-)

Can always keep both, and move him to either 2B or LF.

[jimmer]

Happ-y, JA-Y: Does Molitor win MoY?

Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly

[dbminn]

Fangraphs has posted the first Steamer and Depth Chart projections for 2018. On depth charts, the Twins are ranked 10th overall. WAR projections show a wash with last year. Pitching is expected to go from 9.9 WAR in 2017 to a projected 12.0 in 2018. Position players are expected to take a step back from 24.2 to 22.0 WAR. The projected 34 WAR is equal to roughly 82 wins (replacement players are assumed to win about 48).

 

Only Kepler and Polanco are expected to improve. Buxton is projected to hit a little better but will somehow forget how to play CF and run the bases - FG has projected a big decline in both areas.

 

IMO, these projections prove how difficult it is to predict the future performance of young players.

 

 

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

Note that those will change once ZiPs is rolled out pre-season, since Depth Charts is 50/50 between that and Steamer.

[70charger]

 

Only Kepler and Polanco are expected to improve. Buxton is projected to hit a little better but will somehow forget how to play CF and run the bases - FG has projected a big decline in both areas.

 

Their algorithm must bake in regression to the mean, and since 1) he's so young and doesn't have much of a year-over-year track record, and/or 2) his numbers are such outliers compared to the rest of the league, that regression looks pretty severe. 

 

I like the stats as much as the next guy, but we're pushing toward the fat tails of the bell curve with Buxton's defense, and things are just going to be more volatile than an algorithm that works for 90% of the rest of the league. So I get why it's happening, but if you're a Buxton fan, I wouldn't let it worry you too much.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Their algorithm must bake in regression to the mean, and since 1) he's so young and doesn't have much of a year-over-year track record, and/or 2) his numbers are such outliers compared to the rest of the league, that regression looks pretty severe. 

 

I like the stats as much as the next guy, but we're pushing toward the fat tails of the bell curve with Buxton's defense, and things are just going to be more volatile than an algorithm that works for 90% of the rest of the league. So I get why it's happening, but if you're a Buxton fan, I wouldn't let it worry you too much.

Yeah, projection models don't work well for outliers.

 

On the other hand, expecting Buxton to be +25 on defense may be unreasonable. He'll likely rule MLB for a few seasons but outstanding defense tends to age out quickly in my experience. We might only get "best defender in MLB" Buxton through his age 25 season or so... and that's IF he stays on the field.

 

2017 could easily be Buxton's defensive peak. The good thing is that he has a lot of room to improve offensively (and even on the basepaths, as his success rate will likely drop but his overall attempts should grow quite a bit).

[70charger]

 

Yeah, projection models don't work well for outliers.

 

On the other hand, expecting Buxton to be +25 on defense may be unreasonable. He'll likely rule MLB for a few seasons but outstanding defense tends to age out quickly in my experience. We might only get "best defender in MLB" Buxton through his age 25 season or so... and that's IF he stays on the field.

 

2017 could easily be Buxton's defensive peak. The good thing is that he has a lot of room to improve offensively (and even on the basepaths, as his success rate will likely drop but his overall attempts should grow quite a bit).

 

I agree, leaving the amount of regression predicted by the models aside. How do you "expect" a defensive performance like Buxton's? It is certainly unreasonable to expect transcendent every year.

 

That said, if Buxton's peak was 2017, his (healthy) decline should still be pretty impressive, and I'll be happy to watch it.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I read on ESPN that the Twins are among the three teams with the most money to spend on Shohei Ohtani. Not sure if money has anything to do with Ohtani's decision making, but that sure isn't what I'd call bad news.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I read on ESPN that the Twins are among the three teams with the most money to spend on Shohei Ohtani. Not sure if money has anything to do with Ohtani's decision making, but that sure isn't what I'd call bad news.

 

I have to admit that this would surprise me rather pleasantly if they went after him. He could be a useful bench piece when he's not on the mound.

[amjgt]

The other two are The Yankees and, I believe, The Rangers.

[PseudoSABR]

 

The other two are The Yankees and, I believe, The Rangers.

Pfft. What can the Yankees offer, that the Twins can't?