Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[nicksaviking]

Neither ranking mentions Sano at all.  Minnesota aside, shouldn't baseball writers maybe be talking up this guy?  Ah well.  Not something to get worked up over.

I say national guys can start talking him up AFTER he gets an extension.

[ashbury]

 

 

MLB's best catches for April, by Statcast. A Twins outfielder had the best catch!  But not the Twins outfielder you would expect:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/227057590/aprils-best-statcast-catch-probability-catches/

The value of analytics isn't to make the decision for you (about outfield catches in the case of the Kep video) - it's when it makes you look at a play that would often be overlooked and causes you think about it. The video shows a rocket coming off the bat and extremely little time before it touches the ground. We probably see catches like that every now and then (6% of the time, the numbers say) and give those catches not enough love. I have a new appreciation.

 

Really rare is not quite the same as really good. That's fine with me. I'll still get more worked up over a long run to catch a long arcing ball at the wall that two thirds of center fielders wouldn't reach.

[clutchhittin18]

Yesterday there was a post about Super Deep Sleeper Prospects and what KATOH projects for them for 2017.  Although currently on the DL, at the top of the 2B list was Luis Arraez, who also happened to have the highest projection out of all the players mentioned.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katoh-projects-super-deep-sleeper-prospects-2/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Really rare is not quite the same as really good.

To add to that, really impressive is not always the same as really good.

 

We all love the long run and diving catch. It's super dynamic. But anyone who watched Jim Edmonds play for a long time realized that some guys could make several of Edmonds' catches without diving. Hunter and Cameron were two of those guys who played at the same time as Edmonds.

 

I'm not taking anything away from Edmonds, he was a hell of a defender in his prime, just pointing out that he wasn't the fastest guy in the known universe.

 

But his catches sure looked impressive.

 

Sometimes, we miss some of the hardest plays because we don't really understand the difficulty of the catch and, from a glance, they don't look that impressive. That doesn't mean the catch wasn't really, really hard.

[markos]

 

To add to that, really impressive is not always the same as really good.

 

We all love the long run and diving catch. It's super dynamic. But anyone who watched Jim Edmonds play for a long time realized that some guys could make several of Edmonds' catches without diving. Hunter and Cameron were two of those guys who played at the same time as Edmonds.

 

I'm not taking anything away from Edmonds, he was a hell of a defender in his prime, just pointing out that he wasn't the fastest guy in the known universe.

 

But his catches sure looked impressive.

 

Sometimes, we miss some of the hardest plays because we don't really understand the difficulty of the catch and, from a glance, they don't look that impressive. That doesn't mean the catch wasn't really, really hard.

Yep. The biggest change in how I try to evaluate defense in the past, I don't know, 10 years is the realization that the ability to make spectacular plays at the edges of one's range is not sufficient, and often not even necessary, for a player to be a valuable defender.

[Mike Sixel]

Win Twins?
12:25 With the hot starts by Miguel Sano and Ervin Santana (and the lackluster April records of Cleveland and Detroit), can the Twins stick around in the AL central race until the trade deadline? With Berrios pitching well in Triple AAA, should the Twins bring him up and see if he can contribute at the big league level? Cause for cautious optimism?

 

Dave Cameron
12:25 I don't see it. Santana might be a solid pitcher now but that rotation is still not good.

[Vanimal46]

2:07
Eric: What do you think the Twins brass is looking for out of Jose Berrios besides a sexy stat line? All he does is dominate AAA hitters, and apparently there are no plans to call him up soon.

 

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I believe they want him to be confident – they’re in no particular hurry. I’d be concerned if he wasn’t up in the next 6 weeks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2:07
Eric: What do you think the Twins brass is looking for out of Jose Berrios besides a sexy stat line? All he does is dominate AAA hitters, and apparently there are no plans to call him up soon.

 

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I believe they want him to be confident – they’re in no particular hurry. I’d be concerned if he wasn’t up in the next 6 weeks.

 

i used to like Dan....

[Vanimal46]

Well, this is blunt. 

2:45

Nick: What do you attribute to Joe Mauer’s poor offensive numbers thus far? Terrible BABIP but the K% is lowest in the league, GB% is down and FB% is up.

 

2:45
Dan Szymborski: He’s the world’s most overpaid singles hitter.

[Vanimal46]

Hey! A little bit of hope for Byron?!

2:56

Richard: Who will eventually break out of their slump faster, Byron buxton or Keon Broxton?

 

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Double B

[Vanimal46]

3:09
Billy Beane: Why is Ervin Santana sorta good now?

 

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at the data actually, but he seems to be getting some crazy movement this year.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks Van, I was working and couldn't post!

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, this is blunt. 

2:45

Nick: What do you attribute to Joe Mauer’s poor offensive numbers thus far? Terrible BABIP but the K% is lowest in the league, GB% is down and FB% is up.

 

2:45
Dan Szymborski: He’s the world’s most overpaid singles hitter.

 

I'm guessing Dan didn't look at the stats, Joe isn't getting many singles either. When I hear "singles hitter" I think of guys like Ben Revere, Juan Pierre and Ichiro Suzuki, not a guy batting .220.

[big dog]

 

I'm guessing Dan didn't look at the stats, Joe isn't getting many singles either. When I hear "singles hitter" I think of guys like Ben Revere, Juan Pierre and Ichiro Suzuki, not a guy batting .220.

Ben Revere is hitting .179 this year after.217 last year so at least for the moment Joe's got him dusted.

[Willihammer]

 

Well, this is blunt. 

2:45

Nick: What do you attribute to Joe Mauer’s poor offensive numbers thus far? Terrible BABIP but the K% is lowest in the league, GB% is down and FB% is up.

 

2:45
Dan Szymborski: He’s the world’s most overpaid singles hitter.

Probably right but that's a terrible answer to the question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm guessing Dan didn't look at the stats, Joe isn't getting many singles either. When I hear "singles hitter" I think of guys like Ben Revere, Juan Pierre and Ichiro Suzuki, not a guy batting .220.

True, but I have to wonder if Joe is struggling through some adjustments. Something about his latest plate appearances just feel different. Maybe it's my imagination. Early in the season, he was making contact but drilling it into the ground. Lately, he seems to be getting under the ball a bit more.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Probably right but that's a terrible answer to the question.

 

it's one of dozens of answers in a 2 hour chat.....do people really expect long, detailed, well thought out responses in chats to every question?

 

mauer is the most overpaid singles hitter out there. Is that not true? He's overpaid, and he doesn't hit many HRs and not a TON of doubles.....

[70charger]

 

it's one of dozens of answers in a 2 hour chat.....do people really expect long, detailed, well thought out responses in chats to every question?

 

mauer is the most overpaid singles hitter out there. Is that not true? He's overpaid, and he doesn't hit many HRs and not a TON of doubles.....

 

It's true but lacks any useful information. Hence, a terrible answer.

 

Q: "Why is Joe Mauer bad? Is it BABIP? Is it contact? Is it something else?"

A: "He's bad because he's bad. [Added potshot about salary for effect.]"

 

I don't see how anyone finds that useful.

[Jham]

It's true but lacks any useful information. Hence, a terrible answer.

 

Q: "Why is Joe Mauer bad? Is it BABIP? Is it contact? Is it something else?"

A: "He's bad because he's bad. [Added potshot about salary for effect.]"

 

I don't see how anyone finds that useful.

I understood it. He's saying mauer's struggles are not babip driven in his opinion. His slugging suggests that he's at the mercy of luck and probably as importantly, shifts. Singles hitters play on a smaller field. Oppo air pull on ground singles hitters play in a smaller field yet.

 

He further suggests that his so called struggles are subjective and driven by his price tag.

 

You can disagree with either of those takes in degree and simplicity (I do) but I can't say either take is out of line.

[nicksaviking]

 

It's true but lacks any useful information. Hence, a terrible answer.

 

Q: "Why is Joe Mauer bad? Is it BABIP? Is it contact? Is it something else?"

A: "He's bad because he's bad. [Added potshot about salary for effect.]"

 

I don't see how anyone finds that useful.

 

Agree. I'm not sure why he would even bother with a Joe Mauer question except to take a break for some levity/snark. Joe has not yet announced his retirement and it's not 2010, seems like a question about Joe Mauer would get skipped considering there were likely more relevant questions not being answered. Probably not a ton of Ichiro or Curtis Granderson questions getting answered.

 

Not that it bothers me, just a bit out of place.

[Vanimal46]

12:26
Smell the Glover: What to make of Berrios maybe (but probably not) coming up in the near future? He’s obvious not as bad as his major league numbers late last year, but seen anything to suggest he’s made the appropriate change(s)?

 

12:26
Eno Sarris: I’ve seen some mechanical changes. I think it’s possible he unlocks it this year, and in some leagues, he’s the best upside pickup on the wire. And Gibson about to pitch his way out of the rotation.

[Han Joelo]

Yet another opportunity for a national writer to talk about Miguel Sano has been missed:

 

https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-aaron-judge-joey-gallo-home-run-expectations-99590f159fce

 

I'm curious what some of the more statistically minded folks on here think, particularly when you get to the third table.

[Whammy]

 

Yet another opportunity for a national writer to talk about Miguel Sano has been missed:

 

https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-aaron-judge-joey-gallo-home-run-expectations-99590f159fce

 

I'm curious what some of the more statistically minded folks on here think, particularly when you get to the third table.

 

You'd think the young player with the much larger sample size, right below them on those lists, would have been included in the conversation.

[old nurse]

 

Thanks Van, I was working and couldn't post!

about time.

 

[bird]

 

I understood it. He's saying mauer's struggles are not babip driven in his opinion. His slugging suggests that he's at the mercy of luck and probably as importantly, shifts. Singles hitters play on a smaller field. Oppo air pull on ground singles hitters play in a smaller field yet.

He further suggests that his so called struggles are subjective and driven by his price tag.

You can disagree with either of those takes in degree and simplicity (I do) but I can't say either take is out of line.

 

 

I wish YOU had been asked the question. Great answer.

[Vanimal46]

From last week's KLAW chat:

Ron: When Sano connects, things go boom. Will have to live with the strikeouts, but it isn’t that he doesn’t have a good eye, just seems to swing through some good pitches. 35-40 HRS, 260/375/550 seem out of line for the next few years? Thanks

 

 

Keith Law: That’s probably a little high on the AVG component but the rest seems reasonable. Dude’s a star.

[Vanimal46]

This isn't Twins related, but a good read nonetheless.... 

Dedicated to nicksaviking.... 

"The Death of the Sinker"

[nicksaviking]

 

This isn't Twins related, but a good read nonetheless.... 

Dedicated to nicksaviking.... 

"The Death of the Sinker"

 

I swear I don't have a pseudonym, but I do like this guy!

 

Whoop, whoop, tell it like it is brother:

 

"Less than one half of one percent of sinkers have been a whiff this year, and since a good sinker doesn’t sniff the zone, it’s no surprise that only one in 77 are looked at for a strike."

 

Although even to me, that first part sounds like it must be a typo.

[Mike Sixel]

Ronnie
12:29 Robbie Grossman has a 128 wRC+ in 481 PAs going back to last year. Is he "for real"?

 

Dave Cameron
12:29 No. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough to be a high BABIP guy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ronnie
12:29 Robbie Grossman has a 128 wRC+ in 481 PAs going back to last year. Is he "for real"?

 

Dave Cameron
12:29 No. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough to be a high BABIP guy.

That's fair. Grossman's line drive rate is decent but his exit velocity is pretty low. Still don't know if he's a .700 or .800 OPS player.