Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

12:23
sn4k3rjaker: Minnesota is still… not terrible? Think they can hang around the wild card discussion? I’m having a hard time keeping my expectations down

 

12:24
Eno Sarris: 6th in batting, worst pitching staff by WAR in majors though… mostly driven by a turrible pen.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Not sure if I should put this in the draft thread or here.

KATOH's projections for the 2017 College Draft Class.

Here

 

Gotta say, I'm surprised that McKay is so high & Wright is so low.

[Vanimal46]

Nik Turley has a blurb in The Fringe Five: Baseball's Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

[crapforks]

 

Nik Turley has a blurb in The Fringe Five: Baseball's Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

I think that Turley lives there now. All mail forwarded to the Fringe Five.

[old nurse]

 

Not sure if I should put this in the draft thread or here.

KATOH's projections for the 2017 College Draft Class.

Here

 

Gotta say, I'm surprised that McKay is so high & Wright is so low.

8 WAR through age 28 as a top pick  Wright would be between Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole as a player.  No position player in college would project to be be much, either.  The projection system  might be considered a guide to the player's floor. As a floor they  would be predicting 5 starters and a lot of relievers.  The system for projecting needs refinement.

[amjgt]

Baseball America, behind the paywall (I don't have access) has an article about the Twins being linked to a high priced July 2 international signing

[Vanimal46]

Brian Dozier interview on Fangraphs! 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/asking-brian-dozier-about-his-missing-home-runs/

[Vanimal46]

Posting this here since it will get lost in the other threads....

 

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler
12:30 How does Royce Lewis compare to the other top SS picks (namely Correa, Seager, Manny and Lindor) at the time of their respective drafts? Assuming of course he stays at SS, which doesn't seem like the case.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:32 Agree with you that Lewis isn't a SS. Doesn't have Correa's power projection, nor Seager's, nor Machado's. Might have a similar offensive profile to Lindor, but not a SS for me, let alone an elite one. I think Lewis is a really good player, but not the franchise-altering talent that all these other names are.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Posting this here since it will get lost in the other threads....

 

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler
12:30 How does Royce Lewis compare to the other top SS picks (namely Correa, Seager, Manny and Lindor) at the time of their respective drafts? Assuming of course he stays at SS, which doesn't seem like the case.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:32 Agree with you that Lewis isn't a SS. Doesn't have Correa's power projection, nor Seager's, nor Machado's. Might have a similar offensive profile to Lindor, but not a SS for me, let alone an elite one. I think Lewis is a really good player, but not the franchise-altering talent that all these other names are.

 

I also posted this in one of the draft threads.

[d-mac]

Posting this here since it will get lost in the other threads....

 

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler

12:30 How does Royce Lewis compare to the other top SS picks (namely Correa, Seager, Manny and Lindor) at the time of their respective drafts? Assuming of course he stays at SS, which doesn't seem like the case.

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32 Agree with you that Lewis isn't a SS. Doesn't have Correa's power projection, nor Seager's, nor Machado's. Might have a similar offensive profile to Lindor, but not a SS for me, let alone an elite one. I think Lewis is a really good player, but not the franchise-altering talent that all these other names are.

Womp womp.

[Mike Sixel]

Marshall MN: Can Royce Lewis develop the footwork necessary to play IF? You seem doubtful of that possibility, is there any track record of players developing that skill?

Keith Law: I’m very skeptical. At least he has to move off short. Then you end up questioning whether you are better off with the player at 2b, where he might be an average or 55 defender, or in CF, where he might develop into a 70.

ReleasetheMckraken: Regarding Brent Rooker’s position, is he truly limited to 1B? I read he can handle the OF but was playing 1st because MSU had a need.

Keith Law: Every scout I asked, even guys who liked him, told me he’s a 1b in pro ball. I haven’t seen him this year.

Rick: Hey Keith. You have stated you think Royce Lewis probably ends up an outfielder by the time he reaches the majors. I’m wondering who you prefer as a prospect, Lewis or last years #1 overall, Moniak? Thanks.
Keith Law: Moniak has a higher probability of being a big leaguer but I think Lewis has more ceiling and would take him.

Marshall MN: Have you talked to people around the league to get their reaction to the Twins taking Lewis 1-1? It seemed to be an ongoing rumor for a while that it was a possibility, but from what you know did any other team have Lewis at the top of their board?

Keith Law: I can think of two teams that I believe had Lewis at 1, but it wasn’t a majority view, and the reactions I got from other teams last night and this morning weren’t favorable.

Marshall MN: In regard to Lewis’ skill set, how do they compare to Buxton’s coming out of HS? If Buxton had 80 speed and defensive potential, how would Lewis rate?

Keith Law: Buxton was way more tooled up, but Lewis probably has a better hit tool today than Buxton did at 19.

Drew: How quick could Rooker move? He’s old but I don’t know how that translates to a minor league assignment. Do they move him to AA?

Keith Law: Doesn’t he have to? He’s older than five current big league hitters (I think). Sending him to low-A seems futile.

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

[drjim]

AA would be aggressive for Rooker, but I appreciate the thought process. I would think Hi A to close the season and do the wood adjustment. Hit AA running next spring.

[Mike Sixel]

 

AA would be aggressive for Rooker, but I appreciate the thought process. I would think Hi A to close the season and do the wood adjustment. Hit AA running next spring.

 

KLAW's one complaint about the Twins year over year is how low they start their college players. 

[amjgt]

Well... we do have new people running the team this year, so assuming where we start our players the same way we always have, seems like a bad assumption

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well... we do have new people running the team this year, so assuming where we start our players the same way we always have, seems like a bad assumption

 

He didn't make any assumptions, did he? Did anyone? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would think Rooker would start in High A personally.  makes sense at least. He'd be set for AA next season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would think Rooker would start in High A personally.  makes sense at least. He'd be set for AA next season.

 

That's my assumption also.

[Mike Sixel]

This one requires thinking, just a warning!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-al-contact-survivors/

 

Ervin Santana, Twins
Both of the following statements can be true: Ervin Santana (a) has been extremely lucky to date and ( has clearly been an above-average starter. .....................e at.

 

His pop-up rate is w....................... now.

[jorgenswest]

Rooker might go CR and start next year in high A moving to AA in June. I am not going to be concerned if he starts in CR this year. I will be concerned if he doesn't play well enough to be in AA by the second half of 2018. His performance is more important than where he plays in July and August this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rooker might go CR and start next year in high A moving to AA in June. I am not going to be concerned if he starts in CR this year. I will be concerned if he doesn't play well enough to be in AA by the second half of 2018. His performance is more important than where he plays in July and August this year.

 

Agreed, as long as he doesn't go play against 17 and 18 year olds, like the Twins sometimes do.

[Squirrel]

 

Rooker might go CR and start next year in high A moving to AA in June. I am not going to be concerned if he starts in CR this year. I will be concerned if he doesn't play well enough to be in AA by the second half of 2018. His performance is more important than where he plays in July and August this year.

My only desire to see him in Fort Myers this year is a selfish one as chances are high I'd be down there and would get to see him. But I can wait until next year, too, I guess ...

[kab21]

I could see Rooker going to High A to be at the Twins complex. I think Low A is unlikely. They might surprise us and send him to AA though. That would be atypical of the Twins but there is new management in town.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Zack Granite:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-92/

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

The Average Sports Fan
9:16 In hindsight, do you think the Twins are glad they turned down De Leon for Dozier?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:16 In hindsight, yeah, for sure. The Twins are in first place and De Leon is on the minor-league DL
But, of course, that's not the end of either story

 

Big Tuna
9:33 Podhorzer had suggested that he's skeptical about Berrios because he's only getting SwStk with his fastball. What's your view on Berrios on what type of arm he ends up as?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:34 I think he's going to make it. Still needs a better changeup if he wants to approach the level of an ace, but I like his fastball/breaking ball combination today. At his very, very best, he'll look like Jose Fernandez. He won't reach that level very often, though

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-61617/

[Vanimal46]

Dave Cameron wrote an article on Fangraphs today "Sizing Up the Buyers and Sellers"

 

The Twins, as expected, are on the bubble team list.

[Mike Sixel]

Orange Whips
12:06 I know the Twins aren't playoff caliber just yet. But have you seen enough from their young core this season to think they're on a good trajectory?

 

Dave Cameron
12:07 There's some promise there. With Buxton looking more like Billy Hamilton, though, I wonder if they've got enough high-level players. A lot of these guys like Kepler, Grossman, and Polanco look like guys you don't mind having, but not really core pieces.
Sano is really good. After that, I don't know.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-62117/

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Orange Whips
12:06 I know the Twins aren't playoff caliber just yet. But have you seen enough from their young core this season to think they're on a good trajectory?

 

Dave Cameron
12:07 There's some promise there. With Buxton looking more like Billy Hamilton, though, I wonder if they've got enough high-level players. A lot of these guys like Kepler, Grossman, and Polanco look like guys you don't mind having, but not really core pieces.
Sano is really good. After that, I don't know.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-62117/

That's a pretty fair take but on a more humorous note, wasn't Cameron the guy saying the Twins might be further away from contention than even the Reds this offseason?

[Vanimal46]

Aaron
2:55 Question about Jose Berrios:

Whiffs are largely coming from the four seam fastball, while the secondary pitches (curve and change) are producing below average whiffs. You selling -- relative to current YTD production and in-year valuation -- performance as unsustainable?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:55 To an extent.  he was never as bad as last year, but I don't think he's as good as this one.

[Dman]

 

Zack Granite:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-92/

 

Granite is under rated.   The Twins need to find a buyer for Grossman and then Granite slots nicely into his role.  When you think about it Granite is much more versatile than Robbie and while his OBP won't be as high right away he should still get on base at a good clip, play good defense,  steal bases, and be used as a pinch hitter or runner, he is also Buxton insurance.  Granite can do more for less.  If he works his way into a starting role all the better but he makes for the perfect 4th outfielder as well.

 

I think we need to start a free Granite campaign.

[70charger]

I'm going to be a Granite contrarian. (I know I'm not the only one on this board.)

 

Pitchers in the big leagues won't let Granite get away with what he's getting away with in the majors. He would see his walk rate plummet, and the balls he hit will be hit to better defenders. I think we're seeing in Polanco what happens to a guy who can't hit the ball hard. Polanco is still very patient, he's still taking walks, he still has a really good contact skill. But it's not working. He can't hit it hard. 

 

And the thing is, he still hits it a lot harder than Granite. Jorge Polanco's major league slugging is .390 for his career. That's bad. Zack Granite's career minor league slugging number is .370. That's abysmal. And let's not forget - Zack Granite is older than Jorge Polanco.

 

Guys, this isn't gonna work. Let's pump the brakes here. Granite is a fourth or fifth outfielder at best.