Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

From that article. This makes no sense:

"At the same time, however, Minnesota ranks 25th in the majors in BaseRuns win percentage (.438), suggesting they’ve benefited considerably from sequencing. Entering Friday, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish with 78 wins and 84 losses. Overall, the club possesses a 10.6% probability of reaching the postseason according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds — and a 2.6% chance of capturing the division."

Projection versus sequencing.

Sequencing happened. According to the metric, the Twins should have a .438 winning percentage. But they don't. Those wins are in the bag.

 

So, going forward, Fangraphs expects a .438 winning percentage added to the Twins already existing 48-46 record.

 

And you get... 78 wins (actually 77-point-something but you get the idea).

[Mike Sixel]

 

From that article. This makes no sense:

"At the same time, however, Minnesota ranks 25th in the majors in BaseRuns win percentage (.438), suggesting they’ve benefited considerably from sequencing. Entering Friday, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish with 78 wins and 84 losses. Overall, the club possesses a 10.6% probability of reaching the postseason according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds — and a 2.6% chance of capturing the division."

 

what doesn't make sense?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure how baseruns works.....but I think it ignores that Molitor uses his good RPs in tight games, and that it isn't all "sequencing". Not that all of the run differential should be ignored, that would be silly. 

[Vanimal46]

Does Fangraphs update the projected standings after each trade? For example, I doubt the A's will have a projected .493 win percentage if they decide to trade Gray. Rangers if they decide to be sellers. Etc. Etc. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

what doesn't make sense?

Weren't those odds pretty close to the odds at the start of the season when people (not everyone) and publications were predicting 90 losses?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well a couple small acquisitions aren't going to change the fact that the Twins are highly unlikely to make the playoffs and probably won't even stay above .500.

 

I understand why they feel a need to do something, but I think the benefits are mostly or entirely imaginary, which would make it hard to stomach giving up a solid prospect.

Making the postseason isn't the only reason to make modest improvements to the team. Most of this team is young and inexperienced. Keeping them focused for an entire season through a division race may be a priority for this front office (along with increased fan interest).

 

This is a 59 win team that imploded just last season. Making a few modest improvements to vault them into 80 win territory (or better) isn't unreasonable, even if you think you only have a moderate chance of making the postseason. Stats, sequencing, and projections are important but (and it pains me to say this), baseball is not played on a stat sheet.

 

Give the team a chance to win this season without breaking open the farm, hope for the best, and then try to build a better team next season with a bunch of young players who expect to win.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Weren't those odds pretty close to the odds at the start of the season when people (not everyone) and publications were predicting 90 losses?

 

Predicting a likely outcome is very different than saying there are chances that a different outcome will happen. 

 

and no, FG had MN at 5.1% to make the playoffs before the year started, so it's double.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=C&stat=poff&year=2017

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure how baseruns works.....but I think it ignores that Molitor uses his good RPs in tight games, and that it isn't all "sequencing". Not that all of the run differential should be ignored, that would be silly. 

This is one thing that has caught my attention this season. All managers use their best bullpen guys in the closest games but most bullpens aren't filled with binary good/terrible relievers.

 

How does that impact BaseRuns? Dunno, but it has to have some effect on the metric. After all, we've watched this team all season. They're horrible when down by 4+ runs, often allowing the other team to blow it wide open into an 8+ run deficit.

 

But in two run games? They're quite competitive.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Does Fangraphs update the projected standings after each trade? For example, I doubt the A's will have a projected .493 win percentage if they decide to trade Gray. Rangers if they decide to be sellers. Etc. Etc. 

 

I believe they update the odds daily.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is one thing that has caught my attention this season. All managers use their best bullpen guys in the closest games but most bullpens aren't filled with binary good/terrible relievers.

 

How does that impact BaseRuns? Dunno, but it has to have some effect on the metric. After all, we've watched this team all season. They're horrible when down by 4+ runs, often allowing the other team to blow it wide open into an 8+ run deficit.

 

But in two run games? They're quite competitive.

 

Same with Berrios / Santana vs all other starters.

 

If Berrios gives them a 55% chance to win, and Santana a 52% chance, and Mejia 48% and all others 40........averages look bad. But games are discrete entities, not a single 162x9 event. I'm sure there is research on this out there, but I've never looked for it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Projection versus sequencing.

Sequencing happened. According to the metric, the Twins should have a .438 winning percentage. But they don't. Those wins are in the bag.

 

So, going forward, Fangraphs expects a .438 winning percentage added to the Twins already existing 48-46 record.

 

And you get... 78 wins (actually 77-point-something but you get the idea).

At first I misread "should currently have 25th best record" to mean "78-84 will be the 25th best record" but he doesn't actually say that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Same with Berrios / Santana vs all other starters.

 

If Berrios gives them a 55% chance to win, and Santana a 52% chance, and Mejia 48% and all others 40........averages look bad. But games are discrete entities, not a single 162x9 event. I'm sure there is research on this out there, but I've never looked for it.

Yeah, those games often start with the rotation.

 

Say Mejia gives up 5 runs in 4 IP. Well, the Twins would occasionally be good enough to overcome that deficit, as they have a decent offense.

 

But you roll out the clown car to replace Mejia and that deficit often balloons by 3+ runs in a couple of innings. We've seen it so many times this season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, those games often start with the rotation.

 

Say Mejia gives up 5 runs in 4 IP. Well, the Twins would occasionally be good enough to overcome that deficit, as they have a decent offense.

 

But you roll out the clown car to replace Mejia and that deficit often balloons by 3+ runs in a couple of innings. We've seen it so many times this season.

 

I asked in the comments. Sometimes they look at the comments....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Predicting a likely outcome is very different than saying there are chances that a different outcome will happen. 

 

and no, FG had MN at 5.1% to make the playoffs before the year started, so it's double.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?lg=AL&div=C&stat=poff&year=2017

I guess I'm not going to start drinking the Base Runs kool-aid yet. It will match W-L fairly often but there are a lot of weak assumptions built in to it. For example, the bad pitchers in losing games issue.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess I'm not going to start drinking the Base Runs kool-aid yet. It will match W-L fairly often but there are a lot of weak assumptions built in to it. For example, the bad pitchers in losing games issue.

 

Huh? We weren't even discussing base runs.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins are virtually tied for first place in late July, and Fangraphs is saying there is a 2.6% chance the Twins will win the division. Fangraphs is basing that probability on base runs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins are virtually tied for first place in late July, and Fangraphs is saying there is a 2.6% chance the Twins will win the division. Fangraphs is basing that probability on base runs.

 

Agreed, but I thought we were discussing something totally different. I guess not.

 

What would you say the odds are?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Higher?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Higher?

 

I agree. I'd put it in the 10-20% range, but then, that's a WAG based only on the fact they are close and lots can happen in the next 2+ months.

[prouster]

A nice write up of Berrios and his breaking ball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-jose-berrioss-breaking-ball-is-bugs-bunny/

[beckmt]

If Twins FO can improve this team without giving up a higher level prospect - this is more of a rental type, go for it.  To empty out the upper end to get 1-2 players and still not be sure they will make it in thw long run is short sighted.

[amjgt]

Never mind what that does to young players who are in a division race for the first time in their careers. If this team is going to contend before 2020, they need to invest in the players on the field and let them taste success.

This.

 

In a vacuum, should a team that is 2 games above 500, with a minus-50ish run differential be sellers? Yeah. Probably.

 

But we aren't living in a vacuum. We have a young team that hasn't had any success in years. We are a game back of a team that is projected to have a much better 2nd half than first half, but crazy things happen.

 

Additionally, if we have a chance to stabilize a) our 5th starter spot and our 3rd best bullpen option and it doesn't cost us much then I say go for it

 

Jamie Garcia does nothing for the Astros because you'd be taking a 50% win probability pitcher and replacing him with a 50% win probability pitcher. But if we can take our 20% win probability pitcher and replace him with Jamie Garcia, that could me 2 wins. That doesn't globally make Jamie Garcia a 4.0 WAR pitcher but maybe he's 4.0 TwinsWAR.

 

Same thing on the RP side.

[Vanimal46]

Jose Berrios and his "Bugs Bunny" curveball is the feature story on Fangraphs' Sunday Notes article. 

 

Also, in the article:

 

 

Lew Ford, who turns 41 next month, is playing indie ball with the Long Island Island Ducks. The former Minnesota Twins outfielder is slashing .291/.356/.463.

 

Good for him for extending his playing career far longer than most would have guessed. 

[Mike Sixel]

from yesterday's prospect update:

 

Akil Baddoo, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
Level: Short Season   Age: 18   Org Rank: 23   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR, BB

Notes
Baddoo has the speed to stay in center field and was just too physical for the GCL, hitting .267/.360/.440 there before promotion. He looks raw at times offensively, but is also flashing more raw power than I projected on the Twins prospects list. If he starts to show a feel for getting to that power in games, he’s a top-100 prospect. That seems far off for Baddoo, but he’s still just 18 years old and has already shown improvement at the plate in just over a year as a pro.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-724/

[Oxtung]

To everyone that "curates" this page, thank you. I find I have less and less time available and it is nice to be able to come skim just one page to find the national opinion of the Twins.

[Thrylos]

Fangraphs:  Jaime Garcia is about right for the Minnesota Twins

 

last sentence:

 

Garcia is a start. He’s help of some sort. His acquisition seems appropriate. But the Twins will need more than Garcia — whether from within or externally again — to sustain their success to date.

 

 

[dougd]

Yesterday's BPro Monday Morning Ten-pack had this to say about Aaron Whitefield:

 

Longtime scout, Howard Norsetter, has signed several notable international players in his tenure with the Twins including; Grant Balfour, Max Kepler and Justin Morneau. His latest import, Aaron Whitefield, is a former softball player from Brisbane, Australia that is putting up solid numbers in the Midwest League. Athletic and tall with a narrow build, there looks to be some projectable upper body muscle growth. Speed is the carrying tool, and he displays an aggressive nature, always looking to take extra bases or test an outfielder’s arm. He stands tall at the plate with hands close to the chest showing a high leg kick with the pitch. The swing is quiet with average bat speed and mild leverage which produces line drive pull power. There is still work to be done with pitch recognition, he can be fooled and get off balanced with secondary offerings. In the field, the speed allows him to cover a lot of ground in center and he shows solid instincts and routes. The arm plays at average for center but shows good carry and is accurate. Overall, it’s still a work in progress, but I can see multiple tools developing into plus offerings making a profile of an everyday major-league outfielder. And while Whitefield was off of most people’s radar at the beginning of the season, look for him to begin to catch the eye of the scouting world. —Nathan Graham

[Mike Sixel]

on a newly former Twin:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-new-braves-prospect-huascar-ynoa/

 

[Mike Sixel]

hahahaha.

 

Jason
9:50 A ton of names are being floated around at the deadline, but give me a name who could be a surprise move?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:50 Don't count on it, but it would be really, really, really interesting if the Twins decided to sell Byron Buxton
Can't imagine where that market value is

 

Owen
9:56 Has a MLB level player been acquired in season and then traded without appearing in a game, as is possible w Jaime Garcia?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:56 I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of any precedent
9:57 The 2002 Expos got Cliff Floyd on July 11, and then traded him on July 30, after falling further out of the race. But even there, Floyd played something like 15 games with Montreal

[Mike Sixel]

hoju
10:37 Would a Jaime Garcia trade be the saddest and quickest white flag in memory?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:37 It's objectively sad and hilarious that the Twins are in this position, but in reality, their odds *have* gotten dramatically worse in the last few days. So it makes sense that their trading position would have changed

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-72817/