Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Following up on Taylor Rogers, here's a Fangraphs article from two years ago, predicting some success for him. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lefties-cant-touch-taylor-rogers/

[Vanimal46]

Twins hitting coach James Rowson had a few quotes in Fangraphs Sunday Notes article. He spoke about quality vs. quantity when taking swings in a cage, and his approach with Twins hitters on the matter. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Latest Fangraphs article "Projecting Zach Granite"

[nicksaviking]

 

Twins hitting coach James Rowson had a few quotes in Fangraphs Sunday Notes article. He spoke about quality vs. quantity when taking swings in a cage, and his approach with Twins hitters on the matter. 

 

That's interesting because didn't we just read something from Falvey or Lavine about player input and one of the numerous things mentioned was seeing how the players felt about pre-game batting practice? Can't remember what article that was from but it vaguely caught my attention as it's basically baseball dogma that batting practice must be done.

 

Cool. Do something different, I like it.

[nicksaviking]

 

Latest Fangraphs article "Projecting Zach Granite"

 

Interesting, except for this quote: "Twins fans can look forward to slap singles, drag bunts, stolen bases and great outfield defense."

 

He may underestimate what Twins fans look forward to these days. I'd much prefer drives to the gap.

[Mike Sixel]

Benjamin: What would you say is Royce Lewis’ ceiling?

 

Keith Law: A 60 overall player as a CF – a sometime All-Star who adds value on defense, with his bat, and especially on the bases.

 

Benjamin: What is Brent Rooker’s potential?

 

Keith Law: I think there’s a low probability of him hitting enough high-level pitching to be a regular, but that potential is there – he could be a regular at 1b/dh. The swing itself is fine and he’s strong as heck.

 

Jake: Buxton seems to have figured some things out. Swing looks shorter, eliminating some holes. Have you seen the changes and do you think they are sustainable?

 

Keith Law: I do think so – better swing decisions, better contact in the zone.

 

Tye: Would someone like Stroman, Gray, or Archer be a reasonable get for the Twins?

 

Keith Law: It makes absolutely no sense for the Twins to trade prospects for major-league help right now.

 

Tye: Has Zack Granite changed his prospect status from fringe prospect to an actual one with his play this season?

 

Keith Law: No.

 

Jake: No chance for R. Lewis to stay at short? Nick Gordon?

 

Keith Law: Gordon is a true SS. Lewis has no chance IMO.

[nicksaviking]

 

Keith Law: I think there’s a low probability of him hitting enough high-level pitching to be a regular, but that potential is there – he could be a regular at 1b/dh. The swing itself is fine and he’s strong as heck.

 

 

If "the swing itself is fine and he’s strong as heck" I wish he'd explain why he doesn't think he can hit high level pitching.

 

Also, yes, I'm in love with Brent Rooker.

[Vanimal46]

Sano made the list on Dave Cameron's 2017 Trade Value Series. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sano made the list on Dave Cameron's 2017 Trade Value Series. 

 

I'll bet BIG money Buxton doesn't. Dave's never believed in Buxton.....and not sure how the projection systems feel right now.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'll bet BIG money Buxton doesn't. Dave's never believed in Buxton.....and not sure how the projection systems feel right now.

 

Agreed. I was thinking when the series started maybe Berrios could sneak in on the bottom of the list. It's most likely just Sano as a lone representative for the team. 

[Mike Sixel]

among players KLAW considered for his top 50, but missed:

 

Fernando Romero

[Mike Sixel]

John: I realize its sss but Royce Lewis is posting huge numbers in rookie ball, any reason not to move him to Cedar Rapids (low-A)?

Keith Law: You’re proposing a two-level jump for an 18-yo after 13 games. I don’t agree with that.

 

Chris: I am guessing Royce Lewis is SSS but I am guessing he is top 75? Could you see him top 50 at years end?

Keith Law: Probably top 75, based on draft ranking. Still playing short, and I don’t believe he can stay there. (If I thought he had even a 50/50 shot at staying at short, he’d have been a top 50 prospect.)

[Mike Sixel]

There are no words about Twins here....but the graph is interesting mostly for the third MN name....

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kenley-jansen-is-too-busy-helping-the-dodgers-win-to-get-saves/

 

Kintzler is highly ranked, btw. If they fall out of the race, you gotta deal him.

[jimmer]

 

There are no words about Twins here....but the graph is interesting mostly for the third MN name....

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kenley-jansen-is-too-busy-helping-the-dodgers-win-to-get-saves/

 

Kintzler is highly ranked, btw. If they fall out of the race, you gotta deal him.

They should deal him regardless. Santana too.  We already waited too long for Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

from the comments section the fangraphs trade value series:

 

YKnotDisco
Was Berrios close to making the HM/top 50?

1 2 hours 49 minutes ago

 

Dave Cameron
He wasn’t one of the last few guys cut, but you could throw him into the 51-100 group and he’d fit in fine. If he keeps pitching well, he’ll get consideration next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/#comments

[Vanimal46]

Big Joey
1:06 expecting a big 2nd half from Dozier?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:06 Moderate buy low

 

mike sixel
1:06 All pitchers are risks, sure, but if you trade them all away for hitters (out of fear of injury), how do you ever get pitching? There is no reason for Detroit to trade a young, cost controlled, starting pitcher. Other than a ridiculous over pay, of course.

 

Travis Sawchik
1:06 It's the old Pitch-22
1:07 Investing in pitching is insane expect that you can't win without it

[Vanimal46]

Dave Cameron updated his List of Buyers and Sellers yesterday. While the Twins still remain a bubble team, their % chance to make the playoffs has improved since last month! 

[Mike Sixel]

MN Bartolo
9:29 Do you foresee the Twins making any moves before the deadline? Maybe bullpen help?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:29 I think they do some very boring stuff. They're not going to make any splashes. Would've liked to see them get Roe instead but that's pretty damn minor

[Vanimal46]

Even this is a little generous... 

 

9:51
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Thanks Jeff, now I need to explain to my boss why my productivity dropped on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. And I don’t have my usual weekend excuse.  Odds Dozier can repeat his insane second half from last year?

 

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: 10%!

[Vanimal46]

Long article on The Ringer about Brandon Kintzler. 

https://theringer.com/mlb-minnesota-twins-atypical-closer-strikeouts-brandon-kintzler-a0178d3a6bd8

[Vanimal46]

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs:

"Jaime Garcia is about right for the Twins"

[Han Joelo]

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs:

 

"Jaime Garcia is about right for the Twins"

Good article. But why do people think the Twins have been especially lucky with sequencing? Is that just assumed when W-L exceeds base runs expectancy? I keep thinking that -25 against the Astros alone represents a lot of BAD luck, and is skewing the expectancy.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's just say that Cameron doesn't agree with this article, he was clear on that on Twitter last night. He feels the Twins should be sellers.

[drjim]

I'm not sure I agree with the Fangraphs assumptions that Cleveland is going to be far and away the best team in baseball going forward.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let's just say that Cameron doesn't agree with this article, he was clear on that on Twitter last night. He feels the Twins should be sellers.

It's quite possible they should be sellers in the abstract but in the real world, that would absolutely destroy fan interest in this team. How many millions would the team be leaving on the table in 2018 if they closed out this season with a 74-88 record?

 

Never mind what that does to young players who are in a division race for the first time in their careers. If this team is going to contend before 2020, they need to invest in the players on the field and let them taste success.

[drivlikejehu]

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

Right now? Not a ton but I expect attendance will be solid through the rest of the season if the Twins stay in it.

 

But baseball attendance usually lags by a season. Stay in the race through 2017 and it's likely the Twins see a significant attendance bump in 2018 (provided they don't open the season with a catastrophic failure as they did in 2016).

[Vanimal46]

 

Is there that much fan interest in the team?

 

Probably not right now. I think the casual fans are still in wait and see mode with this team. If the Twins finish the year above .500, maybe a WC berth, and make a splash in the off-season, they'll come back. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

From that article. This makes no sense:

 

"At the same time, however, Minnesota ranks 25th in the majors in BaseRuns win percentage (.438), suggesting they’ve benefited considerably from sequencing. Entering Friday, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish with 78 wins and 84 losses. Overall, the club possesses a 10.6% probability of reaching the postseason according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds — and a 2.6% chance of capturing the division."

[drivlikejehu]

 

Right now? Not a ton but I expect attendance will be solid through the rest of the season if the Twins stay in it.

 

But baseball attendance usually lags by a season. Stay in the race through 2017 and it's likely the Twins see a significant attendance bump in 2018 (provided they don't open the season with a catastrophic failure as they did in 2016).

 

Well a couple small acquisitions aren't going to change the fact that the Twins are highly unlikely to make the playoffs and probably won't even stay above .500.

 

I understand why they feel a need to do something, but I think the benefits are mostly or entirely imaginary, which would make it hard to stomach giving up a solid prospect.