Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Willihammer]

So I looked it up and BABIP stabilizes between 820 and 1126 balls in play (depending on the source you want to believe). Grossman for his career has a .334 BABIP over 743 balls in play. Even if he regressed hard over his next ~300 BIPs, you're still looking at a mean that's worst case, around .305-.310 which would be above league average which is .292..

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/miguel-sano-is-murdering-baseballs/

 

Miguel Sano is murdering baseballs

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/miguel-sano-is-murdering-baseballs/

 

Miguel Sano is murdering baseballs

"He’s making soft contact at a rate of 1.7%. Read that again. That’s absolute nonsense."

 

LOL

[drjim]

I wonder if he'll ever be able to bump up the contact rate or if that is going to remain?

 

He's obviously quite good as is and I'll take it, but if he improves that he becomes absolutely absurd.

[Mike Sixel]

GS (Minneapolis)
1:10 My heart loves Miguel Sano while my head loved Max Kepler. Kepler seems so well-rounded to me and I think his net value is under appreciated by Twins fans. Well he develop 30 hr power?

 

Keith Law
1:11 Kepler? I'd say 20+, 30 is not impossible but not likely.

[Willihammer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-gimenez-on-non-sugar-coated-communication-and-analytics/

 

Love the attitude!

[Mike Sixel]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-gimenez-on-non-sugar-coated-communication-and-analytics/

 

Love the attitude!

 

man, if only a whole thread existed on this topic!

[Mike Sixel]

Nick
1:18 Buxton has been putting together some pretty solid ABs lately. It's a low bar, but how long do you think it takes before he gets his AVG into the .220s and OBP in the .320s?

 

Keith Law
1:18 Aaron Gleeman's been ... um ... gleefully tweeted about Buxton's rise. After the first 50 or so AB, Buxton's been on fire with more BB and fewer K. I would bet on him keeping it up.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-gimenez-on-non-sugar-coated-communication-and-analytics/

 

Love the attitude!

Brief but solid article. The great thing about it is that the quotes in the interview support the headline. Very straightforward, without giving away too much.

[Mike Sixel]

certain to get complaints because it isn't a 10 paragraph, well researched answer, in a chat.....

 

Tyler
10:42 What are your thoughts on Hector Santiago? He's been really impressive thus far, but he has to come back down to earth, right?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:42 Nothing about that profile impresses me
10:43 He's long been able to keep his ERA under his peripherals, but not by nearly this much

[Mike Sixel]

Tyler
10:48 Why do you think Buxton has begun to have success the past few weeks? What changed compared to the first month?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49 Similarities between his season and Keon Broxton's, although Broxton has been better. I doubt there have been any dramatic changes in mechanics or approach. It's probably just been more of a mental thing, where they got too down on themselves early, and at some point they were able to just snap out of that funk and get a fresh start
I know that sounds stupid and boring, but it's my hypothesis
wrex
10:49 Please discuss Byron Buxton further.
Jeff Sullivan
10:49 The best thing about the recent hot stretch: he's not striking out so often. Although his contact rate is still low, so it's not like that has been conquered

[Mike Sixel]

Tyler
10:52 With Berrios coming back up for Saturday, do you think he can turn it around?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:53 I'm not very worried about what happened in 2016. It didn't make much sense, given his talent

[Brock Beauchamp]

I should really follow Sullivan's chats. He seems one of the most fair and reasonable guys on Fangraphs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I should really follow Sullivan's chats. He seems one of the most fair and reasonable guys on Fangraphs.

 

and he lives in Portland! 

 

*no, I have not tried to meet him....

[70charger]

 

and he lives in Portland! 

 

*no, I have not tried to meet him....

 

...that he knows about.

[Mike Sixel]

Scoop
12:49 Think Berrios turned it around. His first MLB start this year was impressive.

 

Travis Sawchik
12:50 I've always been a fan. He was great Saturday. Great three-pitch mix. Twins need need him to fit in mid to top of rotation

[Mike Sixel]

Scoop
1:11 Byron Buxton a top 50 player next year. Seems to be turning things around now, but do you believe he's still a year away?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:11 With that defense and base-running he might just need to be league-average to be top 50

[Mike Sixel]

The warm side of the pillow
1:18 Is Sano's soft hit % real? That seems impossible

 

Travis Sawchik
1:18 Might have a thing about this later today/tomorrow!

[Pitz]

I.look forward to that article. The thing that has mr puzzled is how his soft hit percentage can be so low and his K percentage as high as it is. Havent looked too closely. But it seems a bit weird that he either stings the ball or misses it completely.

[Vanimal46]

You could almost convince me that a Sano check swing would still travel 200 feet in the air.... That dude swings at the ball so hard. 

[Vanimal46]

Fresh off the presses at The Ringer.

"Twins Fans, It's OK to Freak Out Over Jose Berrios"

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fresh off the presses at The Ringer.

"Twins Fans, It's OK to Freak Out Over Jose Berrios"

 

Brandon vs the Ringer! Cage match.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW just did his Insider ranking of players under 25 in the majors.

 

You'll never guess whose ranked higher! 

 

Buxton number 8, Sano number 21. There are more great players under 25 than you'd think!

[Mike Sixel]

also started a thread for a Sano article on Fangraphs.

[Mike Sixel]

Colin
1:50 LaMonte Wade is slashing an impressive .330/.465/.486 in AA with even more impressive plate discipline. Is it still assumed he'll never have the power to be a MLB regular and more of a 4th OF?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:51 I wouldn't say "assumed" but that remains the general opinion. You can find scouts who just think he'll hit enough to play a bigger role than that, though.
Just not for power

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
3:26 Odds MN goes for an under slot guy, since they also have picks 35 and 37, IIRC?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
3:30 Small. Bonus amounts up top are more uniform and clubs' ability to save pool money is limited as a result. I think the only clubs for which an under slot deal might make sense are Oakland And Cincinnati. The Reds because they pick for the second time before everyone else at the top of the draft except for Tampa but they have the $1mil difference in slot value vs Tampa up top. Oakland because, after what I think is a clear top 5 in the class, they might have several similarly graded players with whom to leverage negotiations.
3:31 And then they pick at 33 again, right after CIN.
But in general I think we see less of the under slot stuff with the new rules.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

and he lives in Portland! 

 

*no, I have not tried to meet him....

There's a few talking heads in the Portland/NW area which is nice considering the purgatory that is baseball out there.

[nicksaviking]

From Jason Martinez' MLBTR chat yesterday:

 

Michael from Minnesota

4:39

  Who will make an all-star game appearance first - Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios? 

Jason Martinez

4:40

  Both will make it for the 1st time in 2019. You heard it here first.

 

Minimally substantiated optimism works for me today.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Seath: Could you see Tyler Jay working the bullpen in the Majors and transition to the rotation eventually (2-3 years)? Or do you think the move is permanent?

 

Keith Law: I got the sense this was a permanent move but I believed he could develop as a starter and would love to see them keep the door open for him.

 

 

John: If the Twins keep this up through the All Star break should they stand pat or flip Dozier and Santana for younger pieces to put around the young core?

 

Keith Law: I do not believe they’re going to keep this up till the ASB and they’d be remiss in failing to get value for their older players.

[Mike Sixel]

John: Too bad you can’t find time to stop by the Twins broadcast booth. They seem to spend half their time talking about errors, batting average, and the virtue of sacrificing runners over.

 

Keith Law: In Smart Baseball I mention the irony of Bert Blyleven, who is only a Hall of Famer because of sabermetrics and the lobbying of people in the sabermetrics community, hating sabermetrics.