Article: Kyle Gibson And The Second Season Opener

[Nick Nelson]

The start of the season is such a tease. The first game is typically a weekday affair that most nine-to-fivers have to miss, although multiple rain delays pushed this year’s opener into the evening.

 

Then there’s that customary day off. It’s like giving someone a bite of ice cream and then putting the carton back in the freezer. Come on.

 

Tonight, things really get going. The Twins are opening a stretch of 21 games in 22 days. There’s a whole lot of baseball on tap.

 

This next one between Minnesota and Baltimore feels like a do-over, after weird weather and shortened starts turned Monday’s contest into a bullpen game. It seems fitting that in their – shall we say – second season opener, the Twins will be sending a starter to the mound who probably deserved the nod the first time around.In the grand scheme of things, the order of pitchers in the first two games of the season isn’t all that important. Maybe the Twins consider starting the home opener, which Kyle Gibson is in line to do next Monday, a more meaningful honor.

 

But by all means, the 28-year-old has earned the distinction of top dog in the Minnesota rotation.

 

Last year, Gibson led Twins starters in innings and his ERA (3.84) was lower than all but Tyler Duffey, who made 10 starts. While Ervin Santana was sitting out the first half with a suspension, Gibson was helping propel the team toward the top of the division. From start to finish, he was the rock in the starting unit.

 

It’s impressive that the righty held opponents to a .257/.306/.387 line in 2015, but even more impressive when you consider that his 17.7 percent K-rate ranked near the bottom of the league.

 

When hitters put the ball in play against Gibson, they batted .287, which is lower than the expected rate of about .300. That’s a testament to his sharp late-breaking pitches and the weak contact they produce.

 

But contact is contact, and invariably when bat meets ball that much there are going to be hits, errors, runs. Since Gibson lacks elite control, the key for him to take his game to the next level is going to be making more people miss. Fortunately, there are promising signs on that front.

 

In spring training, Gibson led the staff in strikeouts with 22 in his 22.2 frames. Of course, his stuff always looks nasty in spring training, and side sessions, but hasn't translated to an above-average whiff rate. Not yet.

 

His strikeout percentage has risen each year he’s been in the majors, from 12 to 14 to last year’s 18. Now, three years removed from losing a season to Tommy John surgery and coming off a 2015 campaign that featured a career-high 194 innings and no significant arm issues, he looks about as strong as he ever has.

 

Among the five Twins starters, Gibson is the youngest, the least experienced, the lowest paid. But for all intents and purposes, he’s the leader of this rotation, and tonight he’ll lead the team into the real start of the 2016 season.

 

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[DaveW]

With the weird ass game on Monday, it's even more important that Gibson is able to "set the tone" and give the Twins a strong 7-8 innings.

 

Gibson is the current Twins starter I feel most confident in day in/day out

[zchrz]

Is Gibson's sinker the best single pitch in the rotation or maybe on the staff?  I think his slider and change have the break to be swing and miss stuff, he just needs the command of them to up his k rate.  He suffers Scott Baker syndrome right now needing a little bit more somewhere to be able to end abs sooner be it with weak contact in play or ks. 

 

I think Gibson is a nice 3 with the potential to be a good 2 if he really gets his stuff together.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gibson's 2015 was fascinating. I don't know if I've seen a veteran pitcher (who wasn't injured) do this before.

 

April: 22.1 IP, 6 (!) SO (terrible)

 

May: 39.2, IP, 24 SO (started picking up steam as the month progressed)

 

June: 30.2 IP, 28 SO (now we're talkin')

 

July: 31.1 IP, 30 SO (huzzah!)

 

August: 34.0 IP, 23 SO (oh, mid-season dip)

 

Sept/Oct: 36.2 IP, 34 SO (finished strong)

 

Remove Gibson's first six starts and he pitched 158.1 innings with 134 strikeouts. That's pretty impressive for a ground ball guy.

 

So I don't really know what to expect from Gibson. Is he a slow starter? Was last April a fluke? Is he really a guy who can approach an 8 K/9 while getting ground ball outs?

 

I guess we'll find out. People tend to unfairly dismiss Gibson. Will he be a dominant guy? Probably not... But we're talking about a 28 year old pitcher with only 800 professional innings on that arm. Maybe there's a little upside left in there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

By comparison, Trevor May already has ~930 professional innings on his arm. Gibson had a strange series of events that led to his arm getting very little use (college draftee, broken arm, TJ surgery).

[Willihammer]

Gibson looked flat out dominant in his last ST tuneup. Got a lot of whiffs. Tonight I'll be watching to see if he throws all his pitches in the first inning, and sets a tone of "unpredictable" as he did then.

[gunnarthor]

 

Gibson's 2015 was fascinating. I don't know if I've seen a veteran pitcher (who wasn't injured) do this before.

 

April: 22.1 IP, 6 (!) SO (terrible)

 

May: 39.2, IP, 24 SO (started picking up steam as the month progressed)

 

June: 30.2 IP, 28 SO (now we're talkin')

 

July: 31.1 IP, 30 SO (huzzah!)

 

August: 34.0 IP, 23 SO (oh, mid-season dip)

 

Sept/Oct: 36.2 IP, 34 SO (finished strong)

 

Remove Gibson's first six starts and he pitched 158.1 innings with 134 strikeouts. That's pretty impressive for a ground ball guy.

 

So I don't really know what to expect from Gibson. Is he a slow starter? Was last April a fluke? Is he really a guy who can approach an 8 K/9 while getting ground ball outs?

 

I guess we'll find out. People tend to unfairly dismiss Gibson. Will he be a dominant guy? Probably not... But we're talking about a 28 year old pitcher with only 800 professional innings on that arm. Maybe there's a little upside left in there.

I have a theory, as yet proven, that Gibson's sinker doesn't sink in cold weather games and that's what he had all last April.  When the weather was nice (like in ST), his sinker worked.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have a theory, as yet proven, that Gibson's sinker doesn't sink in cold weather games and that's what he had all last April.  When the weather was nice (like in ST), his sinker worked.  

Interesting... That never occurred to me.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Season opener 2.0 tonight - let's forget that weird opener on Monday and get the season kicked off the right way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gibson's career minor league K rate was right at 8.  I think he can do that in the majors for what it's worth.

[DocBauer]

Gibson's 2015 was fascinating. I don't know if I've seen a veteran pitcher (who wasn't injured) do this before.

 

April: 22.1 IP, 6 (!) SO (terrible)

 

May: 39.2, IP, 24 SO (started picking up steam as the month progressed)

 

June: 30.2 IP, 28 SO (now we're talkin')

 

July: 31.1 IP, 30 SO (huzzah!)

 

August: 34.0 IP, 23 SO (oh, mid-season dip)

 

Sept/Oct: 36.2 IP, 34 SO (finished strong)

 

Remove Gibson's first six starts and he pitched 158.1 innings with 134 strikeouts. That's pretty impressive for a ground ball guy.

 

So I don't really know what to expect from Gibson. Is he a slow starter? Was last April a fluke? Is he really a guy who can approach an 8 K/9 while getting ground ball outs?

 

I guess we'll find out. People tend to unfairly dismiss Gibson. Will he be a dominant guy? Probably not... But we're talking about a 28 year old pitcher with only 800 professional innings on that arm. Maybe there's a little upside left in there.

 

A great point I have often tried to make. He lost a season due to TJ. And then, by most accounts, made a pretty quick return to the mound. The numbers say Gibson is a 4th year man, but that's really due to a technicality. When he got his first promotion with the Twins, he exceeded rookie status by, I believe, 1/3 of an inning. Except for this technicality, he would have been a rookie in 2014.

 

For a variety of reasons, different individuals hit their stride at different ages. For some it's 24-25, and for some it's 27-28 ish. Not saying he will become the proverbial "ace" of the staff, but top starter is very possible if not already true.

[Mike Sixel]

Personally, now that games aren't on free tv anymore, I prefer day games. I can "watch" on gamecast in the background. I would never do that at home, when I can be doing stuff I want.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not saying he will become the proverbial "ace" of the staff, but top starter is very possible if not already true.

I don't know if I'd ever refer to him as a "top starter" but I think he has the potential to be a 110-120 ERA+ guy for a few years before settling into more of a league average guy in his 30s.

 

Or maybe he's always going to be a 100 ERA+ guy. A lot rides on whether he continues missing bats, IMO.

[d-mac]

 

I have a theory, as yet proven, that Gibson's sinker doesn't sink in cold weather games and that's what he had all last April.  When the weather was nice (like in ST), his sinker worked.  

 

Might be something to this. His career xFIP splits by month:

 

Mar/April: 5.20

May: 4.09

June: 3.30

July: 3.93

August: 4.45

Sept/Oct: 3.69

[bluechipper]

Tonight reminded me how frustrating it can be to watch Gibson pitch.

[DiscGolfer]

As they were talking about the rotation being shuffled around tonight (I think they said Santana will start Friday) I was afraid they would say Nolasco would be starting the home opener.  It will still be Gibby.

[DaveW]

This inconsistency is why I mentioned this offseason and last year why Gibson is the one SP the Twins should be dangling in the trade market the most aggressively. Unlike Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson is on the cheap and even while he is inconsistent he is a solid 3/4 type pitcher.

 

Additionally that opens up another spot for May, Duffey and Berrios in the rotation as well. (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes are basically unmovable at this stage and Milone won't bring back much)

I have to think that you could snag a solid catching prospect and a good RP for Gibson, no?

 

 

Edited April 7, 2016 by DaveW

[DiscGolfer]

 

This inconsistency is why I mentioned this offseason and last year why Gibson is the one SP the Twins should be dangling in the trade market the most aggressively. Unlike Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson is on the cheap and even while he is inconsistent he is a solid 3/4 type pitcher.

 

Additionally that opens up another spot for May, Duffey and Berrios in the rotation as well. (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes are basically unmovable at this stage and Milone won't bring back much)

I have to think that you could snag a solid catching prospect and a good RP for Gibson, no?

I see this being more likely than Nolasco being traded at any point.  If everyone stays healthy you have to open up a spot for Berrios some how at some point this season.  It won't happen until June at the very earliest but I agree he'll be the one to get the most in return.

 

I wasn't a fan of trading him last year but if things work out that way and he can bring back some value this year I'm all for it.

[DaveW]

It's not just Berrios that is blocked from the rotation currently, May and Duffey are currently blocked as well due to Milone, Nolasco etc.

[FormerMinnasotan]

This inconsistency is why I mentioned this offseason and last year why Gibson is the one SP the Twins should be dangling in the trade market the most aggressively. Unlike Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson is on the cheap and even while he is inconsistent he is a solid 3/4 type pitcher.

 

Additionally that opens up another spot for May, Duffey and Berrios in the rotation as well. (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes are basically unmovable at this stage and Milone won't bring back much)

 

I have to think that you could snag a solid catching prospect and a good RP for Gibson, no?

I agree with trying to shop Gibson. At this point he is what he is. With both Hughes and Santana locked up for a while and youngsters in the minors (Berrios, Duffey, Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Thorpe) the Twins have to look for 3 spots in the rotation to open up. And with Nolasco and Milone probably not lasting the whole season this year to Duffey and Berrios the Twins should open one more spot and Gibson at this point is easier to move and isn't quite the vet Hughes or Santana is (plus not as good as Santana or Hughes IMO).

[laloesch]

 

I agree with trying to shop Gibson. At this point he is what he is. With both Hughes and Santana locked up for a while and youngsters in the minors (Berrios, Duffey, Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Thorpe) the Twins have to look for 3 spots in the rotation to open up. And with Nolasco and Milone probably not lasting the whole season this year to Duffey and Berrios the Twins should open one more spot and Gibson at this point is easier to move and isn't quite the vet Hughes or Santana is (plus not as good as Santana or Hughes IMO).

 

i concur.  Gibson is a valuable trade chip.  We have gluts of starting pitching.  Duffey, Berrios, Mays and the next generation Gonsalves, Thorpe, Jay, Stewart.