Article: Like It Or Not, May Is Bullpen Bound

[tobi0040]

Not only is the sample small, he was basically a rookie -- you'd expect he would perform better in the second half.

Also you get to cherry pick your match ups.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The definition is not in the least bit abstract and it is really not complicated at all.  Sunk cost are previous expenditures or in some cases payments yet to be made with no chance of being avoided.  That is clearly not the case here.  If Nolasco rebounds which is certainly plausible, Nolasco’s will be tradeable and therefore his future salary will not be recognized.  The cost is not sunk.  

 

Please explain the baseball definition of sunk costs for me because it sounds to me like the baseball definition is when the fans would rather you just write it off because that option suits them better.  It just boggles my mind that people can say just write off what is the equivalent to 400 years of income for the average individual.

But what if he doesn't pitch well, or doesn't pitch at all?

[DaveW]

 

Albeit, a small sample size, but the stats so far bear out that he has performed better as a reliever. (Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2015&t=p)

 

As a starter: 

     .290  .327  .445  .772 

     ERA 4.43    WHIP 1.380    SO/BB: 4.06

 

As a reliever:

     .250  .305  .392  .697 

     ERA 2.87     WHIP 1.213     SO/BB 4.63

Most pitchers will perform better as a reliever...this isn't a good argument on why he should be taken out of the rotation.

[The Wise One]

 

Albeit, a small sample size, but the stats so far bear out that he has performed better as a reliever. (Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2015&t=p)

 

As a starter: 

     .290  .327  .445  .772 

     ERA 4.43    WHIP 1.380    SO/BB: 4.06

 

As a reliever:

     .250  .305  .392  .697 

     ERA 2.87     WHIP 1.213     SO/BB 4.63

May's numbers as a starter look an awful lot like nolasco's career marks.

[Major League Ready]

 

But what if he doesn't pitch well, or doesn't pitch at all?

Basically, Completely irrelevant to the concept of sunk costs unless he had an injury that was certain to prevent him from performing for the duration of the contract.  Where it becomes mercy is if the probability of him failing becomes almost certain.  This is literally finance 101 and it used incorrectly on a regular basis by people insisting they have a better idea of how to manage contracts worth 10s of millions and assets worth 100s of millions than the Twins organization. 

 

The more salient point here is that this is representative of why many here have such a hard time understanding why the FO does or does not do something.  Fans expect the FO to have disregard for profitability, literally.  One poster put it as they want them to spend until hurts.  This is just incredibly Naïve.  The spending philosophies suggested here would be laughed at any organization in this country with a 9 digit revenue.  I mean really, just tossing $25 million when there is a reasonable chance to salvage value is a ridiculous premise that is a product of fanaticism.  Disregard for the organizations financial well-being and the desire to make every decision as if our window to win is closing is the root of most of the discontent with the FO here.  Of course, having partial information is ever present as well.

Edited December 19, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[troyhobbs]

Hate it. Your best arms should be logging the most innings. He's arguably got the best stuff on the team, not sure why you'd want to cap that by stuffing him in the pen.

[stringer bell]

 

Hate it. Your best arms should be logging the most innings. He's arguably got the best stuff on the team, not sure why you'd want to cap that by stuffing him in the pen.

"arguably"-in this thread a lot of numbers and projections have been thrown out there. FIP makes May's best case, ERA his worst. If you are a slave to one advanced stat or another, then there is no argument. I know this--the Twins have a member of their staff who has always had a lower FIP than his ERA-Ricky Nolasco. He's 33 year old and has logged 1500 innings. It happens that guys don't meet their FIP, it also happens that guys have tendencies that make FIP unreliable for them-BA with RISP is a good example.

 

As was noted earlier, xFIP shows something altogether different. It is no cinch May would be better than Milone or Nolasco for that matter. Without May, the rotation is deep, more qualified starters than spots in the rotation. The bullpen isn't as deep and adding May at the end with Jepsen and Perkins helps a lot. There is still room for another power arm in the 'pen, even if May is sent there.

[DocBauer]

Why do folks keep worrying about restricting budget? The "most honest man in baseball", according to many posters, keeps telling us (well documented and directly from the honest horses mouth) that the Twins' budget has no restrictions. That has to be true, right? Start spending the money. Don't worry about the money, and improve the team. Dump salary when a player hurts the team. 

 

Of course, since these actions don't happen, maybe there is some untruth about the oft mentioned and quoted "no restrictions on the budget".

 

Ryan is telling the truth. But the truth is not as simple as "no restrictions". You also have to include other comments he has made as well as those by the ownership. Ownership has never stood in the way of making improvements to the team. The Twins have never, at least publicly, stated any hard and fast budget totals. What they have stated, loosely, are operating cost parameters, which any business would have. And those rough operating costs, again for any business, would include sunk cost losses as well. So while the Twins have cut losses before, it's obviously not something anyone would want to do on a regular basis.

[DocBauer]

Albeit, a small sample size, but the stats so far bear out that he has performed better as a reliever. (Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2015&t=p)

 

As a starter: 

     .290  .327  .445  .772 

     ERA 4.43    WHIP 1.380    SO/BB: 4.06

 

As a reliever:

     .250  .305  .392  .697 

     ERA 2.87     WHIP 1.213     SO/BB 4.63

 

Question: Do these numbers include his initial appearances in 2014? Because that would really skew the numbers unfavorably. Secondly, either way, in 2015, he was actually showing improvement, and at times borderline dominance, as the season wore on and his regular turns took place.

 

That's what always bothered me, he was actually improving as a starter when moved.

[DocBauer]

While I am very much on record for supporting the Nolasco signing initially, defending it, but now advocating doing whatever is necessary and available for both parties to part and get a fresh start, I have to wonder; if Nolasco were kept, could he find a niche and a home in a bullpen role? I know the contract is out of line, but we're the answer YES, it would affect the bullpen, and possibly May as well.

[jorgenswest]

My concern is that May will not stay healthy as a reliever. He spoke towards the end of last season about his back trouble and not having the rest days he used to get as a starter.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Question: Do these numbers include his initial appearances in 2014? Because that would really skew the numbers unfavorably. Secondly, either way, in 2015, he was actually showing improvement, and at times borderline dominance, as the season wore on and his regular turns took place. That's what always bothered me, he was actually improving as a starter when moved.

These are his career numbers.

I would also like to see him start again.

[EddieMatthews]

I'm not sure if May is comparable in potential ceiling, but the article reminded me of two Twins pitchers who won Cy Young awards.  I had to go into the baseballreference.com archives to confirm some fading memories.  Those memories were of two guys who had starting abilities but were relegated to the bullpen while lesser starters kept their positions in the rotation.

 

The first guy is Jim Perry who had some success with Cleveland in the 1950's and joined the Twins in the 60's.  It's understandable that he could't supplant the likes of Jim Kaat, Dean Chance, Camilo Pascual, or Muscat Grant.  But Dick Stigman, Lee Stange, Dave Boswell, and Jim Merritt?  In 1969 Perry got the ball on a regular basis and won the CYA in 1970.  I don't know if he had injury issues, but the Twins post-1965 World Series could have used a few more 20 game winners.

 

You all know the second guy.  The Twins acquired Johan Santana in 2000 on a rule 5 pick.  By 2002 he was a spot starter and showed promise despite his 15 WPs.  In  2003 he had 18 starts, less that Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Joe Mays, Kenny Rogers, and Brad Radke, while posting an ERA that was a buck fifty lower than all of them.  

 

My point is to see that promise and go with it.  Let's get Duffey, Berrios, Gibson, May, Meyer ready for the Majors, mentally and physically, then turn them loose.  Let them make a few mistakes and learn from them.  One of them may be a future Cy Young winner.

[tobi0040]

I'm not sure if May is comparable in potential ceiling, but the article reminded me of two Twins pitchers who won Cy Young awards. I had to go into the baseballreference.com archives to confirm some fading memories. Those memories were of two guys who had starting abilities but were relegated to the bullpen while lesser starters kept their positions in the rotation.

 

The first guy is Jim Perry who had some success with Cleveland in the 1950's and joined the Twins in the 60's. It's understandable that he could't supplant the likes of Jim Kaat, Dean Chance, Camilo Pascual, or Muscat Grant. But Dick Stigman, Lee Stange, Dave Boswell, and Jim Merritt? In 1969 Perry got the ball on a regular basis and won the CYA in 1970. I don't know if he had injury issues, but the Twins post-1965 World Series could have used a few more 20 game winners.

 

You all know the second guy. The Twins acquired Johan Santana in 2000 on a rule 5 pick. By 2002 he was a spot starter and showed promise despite his 15 WPs. In 2003 he had 18 starts, less that Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Joe Mays, Kenny Rogers, and Brad Radke, while posting an ERA that was a buck fifty lower than all of them.

 

My point is to see that promise and go with it. Let's get Duffey, Berrios, Gibson, May, Meyer ready for the Majors, mentally and physically, then turn them loose. Let them make a few mistakes and learn from them. One of them may be a future Cy Young winner.

Cy Young may feed into those on the boards that think May is over-hyped. But he certainly has better odds of being in that elite group than Tommy milone or nolasco. Throw in pelfret from last year

[Helpingverbs]

I love May for the guy to keep us in close games.  I like him better than Jepson even overall.  I also hope for an emergence of one of our pen prospects.  Nolasco is easy to criticize and I hope his experience guides him to a sub 4 era this year.  Duffy floored me last year and I would consider him a lock...a no-name lock.  The guy who emerges after being way under radar to provide consistent fan intrique with an astounding consistency.  Everybody wants to trade Nolasco.  I think there will be a taker at trade deadline and perhaps work out something for a tier 1 Man as well.

Remember, we had a trade for Price before Rosario was caught taking PED's.  It's baseball.  Anything can happen and as the 2016 creeps up on us all I know the talk around the tables will be if the Twins are capable of supplanting the Royals.

 

[Trevor0333]

I guarantee save for injury the pitching staff will be opening day.

 

Hughes/Santana/Gibson/Milone/Nolasco

 

Pressley/Tonkin/Abad/Fien/May/Jepsen/Perkins

[sane09]

 

I guarantee save for injury the pitching staff will be opening day.

Hughes/Santana/Gibson/Milone/Nolasco

Pressley/Tonkin/Abad/Fien/May/Jepsen/Perkins

I guarantee, save for TRANSACTIONS (and injury), your pitching staff will be updated by Opening Day!

If I am wrong, for FREE, I will give to you a brand new guarantee!

[sane09]

We have all heard the timeless adage that "you can't have too much pitching".

That may be true, but I think the Twins are proving that you CAN have too many pitchers at Spring Training.

Twenty-two pitchers on the roster, plus eight non-roster invitees = thirty pitchers in camp looking for bullpen time.

If any of you are traveling to watch Twins ST at Fort Myers this spring, you should pack your catcher's mitt.

They NEED you!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

sane09

Today, 08:10 AM

 

We have all heard the timeless adage that "you can't have too much pitching".

That may be true, but I think the Twins are proving that you CAN have too many pitchers at Spring Training.

Twenty-two pitchers on the roster, plus eight non-roster invitees = thirty pitchers in camp looking for bullpen time.

If any of you are traveling to watch Twins ST at Fort Myers this spring, you should pack your catcher's mitt.

They NEED you!

 

 

 

My phone is misbehaving

 

 

"LIKE"

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guarantee save for injury the pitching staff will be opening day.

 

Hughes/Santana/Gibson/Milone/Nolasco

 

Pressley/Tonkin/Abad/Fien/May/Jepsen/Perkins

I think that will be close, but it might be hard to send Duffey to AAA. Also, although Tonkin is out of options, I don't think his spot is guaranteed.

[ashbury]

You can't have too much good pitching.

[jimmer]

 

You can't have too much good pitching.

I'm hoping we have enough good pitching.  I don't think we do at all.

[Jham]

The team took a major jump last year.  Little if any of that jump was due to May being in the rotation half the season.  He made a huge impact out of the pen, however.  I am one of the few who wonder if his success in either role can be duplicated.  I do think his stuff plays much better out of the pen.  I think his focus is sharper, his occasional wildness is less destructive, and his velocity and spin are way up.  I am fine with keeping him in the pen.  

I don't like wasting years trying to build for the future, particularly when your team legitimately has some talent.  I don't want to waste a year of Sano and Buxton, waste the last years of Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Perkins, and waste the primes of Dozier, Plouffe, and Gibson sifting through young starting pitching when we all know none of them are aces. By the time we've got our 5 guys seasoned to compete, at least one of them will have a major arm injury, and 2 of them will be replaceable 4-5 types, and 3-4 other young arms will be tempting us to move the timetable back another 3 years.  Accumulate as much talent as you can.  Play to win until the All-Star break and see where you're at then.

 

I believe May in the pen gives us our best chance of winning.  By the end of the season, Burdi and Reed may be up, and May could represent an upgrade in the rotation.  Sorry if I don't see that as a tragedy.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Basically, Completely irrelevant to the concept of sunk costs unless he had an injury that was certain to prevent him from performing for the duration of the contract.  Where it becomes mercy is if the probability of him failing becomes almost certain.  This is literally finance 101 and it used incorrectly on a regular basis by people insisting they have a better idea of how to manage contracts worth 10s of millions and assets worth 100s of millions than the Twins organization. 

 

The more salient point here is that this is representative of why many here have such a hard time understanding why the FO does or does not do something.  Fans expect the FO to have disregard for profitability, literally.  One poster put it as they want them to spend until hurts.  This is just incredibly Naïve.  The spending philosophies suggested here would be laughed at any organization in this country with a 9 digit revenue.  I mean really, just tossing $25 million when there is a reasonable chance to salvage value is a ridiculous premise that is a product of fanaticism.  Disregard for the organizations financial well-being and the desire to make every decision as if our window to win is closing is the root of most of the discontent with the FO here.  Of course, having partial information is ever present as well.

 

cutting Nolasco and bringing up Burdi and moving May to the rotation would cost the Twins around 400K next year. Will that really hurt their profits?

Edited December 21, 2015 by Mike Sixel

[stringer bell]

 

cutting Nolasco and bringing up Burdi and moving May to the rotation would cost the Twins around 400K next year. Will that really hurt their profits?

Burdi couldn't handle AA last year. Nolasco has been a successful pitcher in the majors and actually threw the ball fairly well in May of last year. If Burdi succeeds and Nolasco struggles, sure make that move, but that move won't be made until some time in the season. As I've said about the position players, it is true of the pitching staff, there are very few sure things for a team with postseason aspirations. May could implode too.

[jun]

 

I guarantee save for injury the pitching staff will be opening day.

Hughes/Santana/Gibson/Milone/Nolasco

Pressley/Tonkin/Abad/Fien/May/Jepsen/Perkins

Tonkin has not shown the ability to pitch in the major league.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Burdi couldn't handle AA last year. Nolasco has been a successful pitcher in the majors and actually threw the ball fairly well in May of last year. If Burdi succeeds and Nolasco struggles, sure make that move, but that move won't be made until some time in the season. As I've said about the position players, it is true of the pitching staff, there are very few sure things for a team with postseason aspirations. May could implode too.

 

I'd like them to choose a strategy. Either go with the young guys, or acquire veterans for a run. Going halfway just slows down the progress of the young guys, and gets them 83 wins.

 

Not Burdi? Then Rogers, or Milone, or pick someone........

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't like wasting years trying to build for the future, particularly when your team legitimately has some talent.  I don't want to waste a year of Sano and Buxton, waste the last years of Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Perkins, and waste the primes of Dozier, Plouffe, and Gibson sifting through young starting pitching when we all know none of them are aces. By the time we've got our 5 guys seasoned to compete, at least one of them will have a major arm injury, and 2 of them will be replaceable 4-5 types, and 3-4 other young arms will be tempting us to move the timetable back another 3 years.  Accumulate as much talent as you can.  Play to win until the All-Star break and see where you're at then.

 

I think the Twins thought last year too, every year probably, however they didn't pay attention to the national trend, including what was happening on their own roster. The performances of the players corresponded nearly identical to their age. The younger players are just better these days, what they lack in seasoning, they more than make up for in speed, strength, reflex and velocity. There are plenty of bullpen options not named May that should be given spots on the 25-man, and May should bump one of the vets from the rotation. I don't think there is one thing more over-valued by this organization than experience at this time.

[tobi0040]

 

I think that will be close, but it might be hard to send Duffey to AAA. Also, although Tonkin is out of options, I don't think his spot is guaranteed.

 

I just wish we would make these decisions through the lens of analyzing a guys floor and ceiling.  Milone and May probably have similar floors, but vastly different ceilings.  Nolasco is 33 years old.  Thru his prime, prior to signing here his ERA+ was under 100.  So his ceiling is very low.  We hopefully have seen his floor the last two years and it is not pretty.

 

When you run through this exercise it is hard to then say, Milone is a lock for the rotation or let's get another look at Nolasco.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by tobi0040