Article: Like It Or Not, May Is Bullpen Bound

[laloesch]

 

It's an advocacy piece more than a news item.

 

 

Then the title should be changed to say "May should be bullpen bound" ....then he can advocate xyz.

[Major League Ready]

 

Please let's not make this into an abstract technical discussion of "sunk costs", I think we all know what the poster meant in baseball terms.

The definition is not in the least bit abstract and it is really not complicated at all.  Sunk cost are previous expenditures or in some cases payments yet to be made with no chance of being avoided.  That is clearly not the case here.  If Nolasco rebounds which is certainly plausible, Nolasco’s will be tradeable and therefore his future salary will not be recognized.  The cost is not sunk.  

 

Please explain the baseball definition of sunk costs for me because it sounds to me like the baseball definition is when the fans would rather you just write it off because that option suits them better.  It just boggles my mind that people can say just write off what is the equivalent to 400 years of income for the average individual.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The definition is not in the least bit abstract and it is really not complicated at all.  Sunk cost are previous expenditures or in some cases payments yet to be made with no chance of being avoided.  That is clearly not the case here.  If Nolasco rebounds which is certainly plausible, Nolasco’s will be tradeable and therefore his future salary will not be recognized.  The cost is not sunk.  

 

There is virtually no technically correct usage of the term for baseball player contracts then, unless the player dies while under contract.

 

Wow, it appears I'm not even in the top two nitpickers on this site anymore! Not sure whether I should be relieved or worried...

[DaveW]

Something else to consider:

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/Nick_TSM/folders/Jing/media/9a1c9751-d08b-41af-a41b-feb7ae756e5d/2015-12-18_1155.png

Pretty sure most SP in all of baseball have increase in OPS against in the 2nd and 3rd time though the lineups. I think most acknowledge that May can improve in some areas as a SP as well(pitching longer in games, keeping pitches down etc) Edited December 18, 2015 by DaveW

[dougd]

Instead of making a couple "starters" unhappy, why not make them all unhappy by having 8 starters, with 4 groups of 2 for the first couple months. The game starter would be told he would pitch  twice through the lineup, and the second starter would pitch the rest of the game. A Jepsen or Perkins might come in to finish the 4th or 5th inning to give starter #2 a clean slate. While it is a crazy idea, it would be fun for the fans. Perhaps Milone plus Mays, Gibson + Duffy, Santana + Hughes, Nolasco + Berrios or Rogers. Until someone gets injured or implodes or gets traded.

[sane09]

 

There is virtually no technically correct usage of the term for baseball player contracts then, unless the player dies while under contract.

 

Wow, it appears I'm not even in the top two nitpickers on this site anymore! Not sure whether I should be relieved or worried...

Not to worry. This site is loaded with us shnitpickers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pretty sure most SP in all of baseball have increase in OPS against in the 2nd and 3rd time though the lineups.

Not to that degree:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2015#times

 

Although that is a small sample, and there is still plenty of time for May to improve upon it too (maybe rookies do worse in this split?).

Edited December 18, 2015 by spycake

[sane09]

 

While it is a crazy idea, it would be fun for the fans.

Most exciting part of a baseball game is watching a change of pitchers.

[DaveW]

Not to that degree:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2015#times

 

Although that is a small sample, and there is still plenty of time for May to improve upon it too (maybe rookies do worse in this split?).

His 2nd time through weren't that much worse IMO, it was the 3rd time that stood out. Seems like that can be improved by mixing up his pitches a bit more, and just getting more expirence etc under his belt.

 

I guess I don't see the harm in giving him 2016 to have a real shot at the rotation, if he succeeds, awesome! If he fails after 15-20 starts, then by all means put him in the pen where you know he will be fine. Such a waste to never give him a real shot at starting, especially when Milone and Nolasco are taking those starts instead of him.

[Gunnz]

Hopefully Ryan wins out. Not sure why you would mess with a prospects development in the attempt to maximize a marginal position. May has done nothing to be demoted and although he has taken this in stride so Mike Pelfrey and the likes could continue in the rotation, his agent should be demanding a trade or else he may develope Kevin Slowey type ailments. How many chances did Kyle Gibson get, and at best he is a 3rd starter.

[DocBauer]

At the root of it all, there is nothing inherently wrong with May in the pen. At least, not for a year. It's maximizing all assets to the best of the team's collective ability.

 

The root of the problem is removing one of the best rotation assets to fix the bullpen issue, and replacing May's spot in the rotation with a, probable, lesser candidate.

 

Everyone healthy and, more or less, pitching to their norm, May is one of the best 5 starters and to me it would only make sense to move him when/if Berrios is ready and up.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The same people who are outraged that May is being blocked from the rotation by Nolasco and his bulky contract are also demanding that the team sign aging relievers to expensive three-year deals. 

 

Does not compute.

 

While I have also been frustrated with the team's lack of significant activity in free agency, going with May gives them much more flexibility, because if some of those young guns develop as hoped, May can be shifted back to the rotation or traded for good value. That is probably not true of any expensive veteran FA signing that requires a 3+ year commitment. 

 

All this team had to do was replace Duensing and Fien with Lowe and Milone and they'd have gotten younger and May could stay in the rotation.

 

Really, that's all it'd take.

 

And let's not get too caught up in May's stats.  He hasn't even had 30 starts in the big leagues.  I sure as hell hope people don't apply the same tough standards to Berrios or anyone else in their first 25.  It's just not fair or realistic.

Edited December 18, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[Han Joelo]

I'll take May in the bullpen.  I like the mismatched band of merry misfits narrative more than I like the perfectly well-oiled fine tuned death machine metaphor.  And yeah, I'm going to Star Wars in an hour.

 

I'm mean seriously, Porkins in a Y-Wing?  We all new how that was going to end.

[Major League Ready]

There is virtually no technically correct usage of the term for baseball player contracts then, unless the player dies while under contract.

 

Wow, it appears I'm not even in the top two nitpickers on this site anymore! Not sure whether I should be relieved or worried...

I guess it’s a matter of opinion but I don’t see this as a nit-pick.  It’s a simple concept.  The money is by no stretch of the imagination a sunk cost in reality but it is sunk in the minds of some fans because they would just prefer the Twins write it off and move on.  This is the absolute opposite view point of those who are responsible for the decisions being made. It should be no surprise that those who have disregard for the financial health of the organization are at odds with the people the Pohlad’s made responsible for running their business.  So, is it a nit-pick or is the very basis for the discontent displayed here on a regular basis.

Edited December 18, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[gocgo]

I think there is a chance that May is the closer by the end of the year.  The wheels have started to wobble on Perk.

[h2oface]

 

The same people who are outraged that May is being blocked from the rotation by Nolasco and his bulky contract are also demanding that the team sign aging relievers to expensive three-year deals. 

 

Does not compute.

 

Why do folks keep worrying about restricting budget? The "most honest man in baseball", according to many posters, keeps telling us (well documented and directly from the honest horses mouth) that the Twins' budget has no restrictions. That has to be true, right? Start spending the money. Don't worry about the money, and improve the team. Dump salary when a player hurts the team. 

 

Of course, since these actions don't happen, maybe there is some untruth about the oft mentioned and quoted "no restrictions on the budget". 

[nicksaviking]

*****Moderator Note******

 

Remember, if you feel a post or poster violating TD policy PM a moderator or report the post.

 

Airing grievances or accusations inside the threads only derails the thread.

[DaveW]

All this team had to do was replace Duensing and Fien with Lowe and Milone and they'd have gotten younger and May could stay in the rotation.

 

Really, that's all it'd take.

 

And let's not get too caught up in May's stats. He hasn't even had 30 starts in the big leagues. I sure as hell hope people don't apply the same tough standards to Berrios or anyone else in their first 25. It's just not fair or realistic.

Or signed one of the many RP that were available and would have cost less than what we paid Pelf the last 3 years (though plenty RP would only cost two years)

[DaveW]

I think there is a chance that May is the closer by the end of the year. The wheels have started to wobble on Perk.

I imagine that would goto Jepsen before May.

[Jerr]

 

Most exciting part of a baseball game is watching a change of pitchers.

I prefer a triple, as the most exciting part of a baseball game   

[sane09]

 

I prefer a triple, as the most exciting part of a baseball game   

A triple is definitely more exciting than a pitching change.

[sane09]

 

The "most honest man in baseball", according to many posters, keeps telling us (well documented and directly from the honest horses mouth) that the Twins' budget has no restrictions. That has to be true, right?

Of course, since these actions don't happen, maybe there is some untruth about the oft mentioned and quoted "no restrictions on the budget". 

Of course there are budget restrictions!

The honest man is also a very loyal man who is protecting his boss. Should you be a disloyal whistleblower, or loyal spin-master? In many jobs you are forced to make that choice. Twins GM is one of those jobs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I prefer a triple, as the most exciting part of a baseball game

A triple pitching change! Best of both worlds!

[ScrapTheNickname]

Albeit, a small sample size, but the stats so far bear out that he has performed better as a reliever. (Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2015&t=p)

 

As a starter: 

     .290  .327  .445  .772 

     ERA 4.43    WHIP 1.380    SO/BB: 4.06

 

As a reliever:

     .250  .305  .392  .697 

     ERA 2.87     WHIP 1.213     SO/BB 4.63

[Kwak]

 

I imagine that would goto Jepsen before May.

He might get traded in July.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Albeit, a small sample size, but the stats so far bear out that he has performed better as a reliever. (Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=maytr01&year=2015&t=p)

 

As a starter:

.290 .327 .445 .772

ERA 4.43 WHIP 1.380 SO/BB: 4.06

 

As a reliever:

.250 .305 .392 .697

ERA 2.87 WHIP 1.213 SO/BB 4.63

Not only is the sample small, he was basically a rookie -- you'd expect he would perform better in the second half.

[mikelink45]

Yes - I have given up on Nolasco.  Not because he mighty not have a nice mediocre season left but because he does not have any great seasons left.  Move on.

[barbarosa]

While I would like to see May in the rotation, it still comes down to who do you bump?  Everyone talks Nolasco, but then you also say the Twins won't eat the Millions, it is a business.  Hughes was weak, teams knew he would throw majority of FBs so waited and busted him up.  Santana was burned because of his layoff but hopefully he will return to form.

 

You have this forum and the Twins' own "chest beating" on their young hurlers...which with our stated rotation...have no where to go.

 

So what do you do?  First determine what you want the team to do...win...just chug along...what???  If you want to win you need to have a strong bull pen, Kansas showed that last year and it is what hurt us in the long run.  May was a ROCK in the BP...and who says our closer is gonna come back smokin???  Let's face it...strikeouts were not the Twins strong point last year.

 

Need to see what Nolasco and Hughes are gonna do this year.  And see if Mauer continues to lose his batting prowness...we are not gonna have the answers right away...but time will clear up this picture.

 

Good topic!

[stringer bell]

I've liked the move of May to the BP since it happened. He had several outstanding outings in the 'pen and would add another quality arm to the end of the game. I'd still like to see one more quality arm (preferably a lefty) to have four options for the last innings. Choosing the stats puts May somewhere between the top and the bottom of the heap amongst the starters. I am of the opinion that he just another one of the #3-#5 starters, of which the Twins have an excess. In my opinion he translates best to high-leverage duty in the bullpen. The decision can be revisited later if the situation changes. I would submit that one more change in role should be it for Mr. May.

 

I see pretty good value, but pretty big expense for the two veterans (Hughes and Santana) and I see better value due to lower cost for Gibson and Milone. I think Milone is the surest bet of prospective starters and with a projected salary of less than $5M, he would be worth much, much more on the open market. Perhaps someone will give up value to acquire Milone, but if not he belongs in the rotation.

[tobi0040]

Late to reply here regarding a sunk cost. The first definition was spot on to the context I used it.

 

"A previous transaction that has already happened and cannot be recovered". Technically, nolasco could recover. But giving innings to your 7th best starter based upon a past decision is not understanding or accepting the concept.