Dear Terry Ryan... Take a look at the AL Central and factor that in

[bluechipper]

I don't understand all the add a veteran outfielder talk. That just adds another guy to block Buxton and Kepler, even if it was just a one year deal guy.

 

This team has had a top 3 farm system for years. Let them play. That's where the improvement will come from.

[amjgt]

 

There's a reason why they did nothing with the pitching. They have young guys in Berrios and Duffey ready to contribute, and there's reasonable hope that Phil Hughes bounces back, to go along with a solid Gibson and Santana.

 

Two points:

 

1) If that was the Opening Day rotation, you wouldn't hear any complaining from me. I think we would all agree that is a long shot.

2) By downgrading our defense, we effectively downgraded our rotation.

[drjim]

I don't understand all the add a veteran outfielder talk. That just adds another guy to block Buxton and Kepler, even if it was just a one year deal guy.

 

This team has had a top 3 farm system for years. Let them play. That's where the improvement will come from.

Veteran 4th OF type, not veteran starter. There has to be a backup plan if some of the young guys aren't ready or regress.

[bluechipper]

 

Veteran 4th OF type, not veteran starter. There has to be a backup plan if some of the young guys aren't ready or regress.

I guess that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but with Arcia already being the 4th outfielder, I don't know where another OFer would fit or be needed. If the young guys aren't ready, call up the next one- Kepler.

[howieramone2]

 

Agreed, it was a 73-75 win team last year that ended up winning 83 games, perhaps the best thing (other than a playoff berth) for the long term would be for the Twins to win less than 80 games this year. This would hopefully be a "kick" to management that shows them they need to alter their plans. The worst thing that can happen this year is the Twins win 86 games and miss the playoffs (while once again getting lucky)

When you have a winning formula, you don't change it. The only real question is whether we catch the Royals next season, or in 2017.

[Dantes929]

First of all, if May is in the pen and Perkins is healthy then having Jepsen and May for an entire year   makes this a vastly improved pen compared to Boyer and Fien since the rest of the pen should not be hard to replicate.   Please tell me how I am wrong here so we can move on.   I'm not saying another arm wouldn't be nice but Jepsen plus May are way better than Boyer, Fien.     How is this not an improvement? 

Sano may regress but we will have him for an entire year and I am betting Buxton year two will be much better than last year and  better than HIcks.    Park may or may not be better.   

A full year of Santana and Duffey on the mound with a possibility of Berrios should be an upgrade over 2015 as well so why is there such pessimism?

 

Every year for the last 16 years I am pretty sure without exception I have read about how the Twins have been left in the dust by the other teams in the off season.     Go read last year's archives about how the Twins would lose 100 games because the Central was going to be the best division in baseball.    Go to the Tribune archives for the 2002-2010 lamentations about how the Twins were going to be left behind because of all the moves that the other teams were making.  I am guessing somewhere on a Royals fan page there are fans lamenting the young talent of the Twins and how they acquired a great slugger in Park.     I am not going to get too uptight about it.  Twins will be fine.   How many here predicted Chicago and Detroit to be the top teams last year?   Answer.   A lot.   Way more than said the Royals and Twins.  Way more.    

[Dantes929]

 

Two points:

 

1) If that was the Opening Day rotation, you wouldn't hear any complaining from me. I think we would all agree that is a long shot.

2) By downgrading our defense, we effectively downgraded our rotation.

Murphy is not considered to be a downgrade in defense.  The infield remains intact except that Escobar will likely play more at short which will be a slight upgrade over Santana as well.   Outfield has potential for being bad but why assume it will be a downgrade?   Buxton would be a tick above Hicks at least and if Sano can catch fly balls this could easily be an upgrade over Hunter rather than a step back.   Net result = better defense.    I might be wrong but I am not assuming it.    Its not like Hunter was great defensively and I haven't read anywhere that Hicks was better than Buxton.

[TheLeviathan]

 

When you have a winning formula, you don't change it. The only real question is whether we catch the Royals next season, or in 2017.

 

You also were talking about parades two months ago if I remember right.  Perhaps we shouldn't count our chickens yet.

[Platoon]

Veteran 4th OF type, not veteran starter. There has to be a backup plan if some of the young guys aren't ready or regress.

The problem is the Twins don't let them be 4th OF. They play them too many innings, and the minute a young OF would struggle, boom that veteran 4th OF is your left fielder!

[drjim]

The problem is the Twins don't let them be 4th OF. They play them too many innings, and the minute a young OF would struggle, boom that veteran 4th OF is your left fielder!

This "problem" is greatly overstated. I would expect a good 4th OF to get 400ish pa.

 

If a young player struggles they don't have to keep playing.

[bird]

 

The problem is the Twins don't let them be 4th OF. They play them too many innings, and the minute a young OF would struggle, boom that veteran 4th OF is your left fielder!

 

 

I'm not sure we have enough history with Molitor and his staff to predict this. The batboy got about as many AB's as Shane Robinson in the final two months. Deservedly mind you, but still.

[Thrylos]

 

Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year.  Our bullpen has Perkins, Jepsen and May at the back end and even if he doesn't sign a single free agent they have guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, Chargois, etc to fill it out plus possibly two failed starters and Burdi, who is not yet on the 40 man roster.  I actually like Pressly and I don't think Burdi's that far away.

 

They'll be fine.

 

Got to define "fine"  

If you equate "fine" with "they will not burn and rot".  I agree 100%.

 

Will they make the postseason?  Which is being better than they were the season before.   That's probably where I would draw the "fine" line.

 

I don't know.

 

So I am not sure that they are that fine.

 

I don't think that they have improved Centerfield from 2015, unless Buxton learned to hit breaking balls and be healthy and he starts at center.  RF?  Arcia is better than Hunter?  Likely.  DH?  Park better than Sano?  I wish he is. Really.

 

As far as the pen goes, which is their biggest issue, they have not really done anything:

- they are still counting on Perkins and Fien who proved that they should not be counted on in 2015

- Burdi and Reed and Chargois might be wild cards, if the cards fall right.

- Tonkin had 60+ innings to prove that he is not a major leaguer.

 

if everything works out at the best case scenario (i.e Burdi and Chargois have lights out Spring and both make the team with one as the closer and the other moving Perkins to where he should be -setting up, plus at least one of the 3 MiLB LHPs they signed really works out), they will be ok.

 

But that's really living on a prayer.

 

And teams that are putting the bar as high as making the postseason or (god forbid) winning it all, do not do that.

 

Sure they will not burn and rot....

 

 

[drjim]

I'm an eternal optimist, but I have a sense that Jake McGee gets traded to the Twins. Polanco and an arm. Nothing more than reading between the lines a little.

 

My other sense, of which I have even less confidence, is that there still might be a San Diego trade out there.

[drjim]

 

I'm an eternal optimist, but I have a sense that Jake McGee gets traded to the Twins. Polanco and an arm. Nothing more than reading between the lines a little.

 

My other sense, of which I have even less confidence, is that there still might be a San Diego trade out there.

 

Having said that, good to see Cameron's piece showing some options for the Dodgers being part of a blockbuster involving McGee.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/proposing-a-dodgers-trade-for-chris-archer/

 

I still think Polanco and an arm are about equivalent to what was proposed here (for the McGee side obviously).

[DocBauer]

SCREAM!

 

Sorry.....me upset at losing everything I typed. Frustrated, I am going to skim and skip all the really cool stuff I wrote, and list, the first time.

 

I like Ryan, always have. (Except for a couple early blunders) Complain all you want about the Twins not winning a WS or advancing far enough in the playoffs to your liking, he helped build some high quality, winning and competitive teams. And the "conservative" Ryan is also the guy who pulled off the May and Meyer deals, threaded far deeply than ever before in the FA waters for Nolasco, Hughes and Santana, made the move for the young killer Murphy at catcher, and surprised everyone with the winning bid for Park.

 

My problem with Ryan, putting him on a short leash despite being a past apologist, is not his recent milb FA signings. Everyone plays this roll of the dice. And over the years, TR has come up with 7's as much as anyone. No, my problem is not the conservative Ryan, it's this new gambling one that has me frustrated and concerned.

 

This the 4th straight year we enter a season not knowing who our starting CF will be! Really? Yep. Ryan believed he could plug Hicks in, coming off his very best season to date in AA in 2013. He believed in '14 he would grow and develop and take the spot. And after all, Buxton was on the way and hadn't been hurt yet. In 2015 the options were Hicks yet again, career milb and 5th OF Robinson and the rather surprising Shaffer. To be fair, had Shaffer been healthy, he and Robinson might have at least been OK initially. Eventually we got 6 good weeks from Hicks and flashes from uber prospect Buxton. And while I would NEVER discount Buxton or his chances to claim the CF job from the get-go, he IS still raw, and we hear talk about him begining the year at Rochester. So to that end, we brought in a couple AAAA possibles. (Cheer!)

 

Last season we all knew the bullpen needed help. (Forget all the Royals chatter) And what did we get? Stauffer and an invite for Boyer. Ick! I still maintain that Ryan looked at his pen, and the hot prospects on the fast track coming up through the system, and figured help was on the way. How sick do you suppose he felt when all of his top, young RP prospects needed a time out? And it seems we are repeating last season as well, bringing in a couple gambles, and banking on what we have, and should, hopefully have a couple months in to the season.

 

And I get the hope and expectation. I really do. And I get that the rebuild isn't really complete yet, despite the improved play and competitiveness and competition of last year. I really do. But I don't get the gambling. What's wrong with a little nudge here and there? A little investment in depth and immediacy? How horrible would it be to have tradable assets at the deadline because the prospects you are gambling on are ready so you have viable veterans to trade?

 

This is my issue with Ryan. Not the conservative, but the gambler.

[jimmer]

'And the "conservative" Ryan is also the guy who pulled off the May and Meyer deals, threaded far deeply than ever before in the FA waters for Nolasco, Hughes and Santana, made the move for the young killer Murphy at catcher, and surprised everyone with the winning bid for Park.'

 

I guess it's just a matter of perspective. I don't think the May and Meyer deals were very bold.  One just fell into his lap by his own admission.  One likely won't work out and the other is being squandered by putting him in the pen.  As far as the Hughes FA signing, that was hardly bold. The extension was ridiculous, but the FA signing was meh.  As far as how much was spent for Nolasco and Santana, the bar was set awfully low.  Those aren't big signings, really. None of those have actually been huge.

 

And the Park winning bid.  It was low, he didn't go crazy.  And the killer Murphy? Huh?

 

I'm sorry, he is very conservative.  We are just conditioned to expect nothing but scraps that on the rare occasion there's a bit more, it's like WOW.

[DaveW]

Yeah I wouldn't exactly applaud him for the Meyer deal just yet, I liked it at the time, but as of today it's looking like a pretty clear victory for the Nationals.

 

The Revere deal was fine/good either way, because Revere was a mediocre player who never was long for being a starter for this club anyways, anything they got from May or Worley (R.I.P) was going to be a bonus anyways. (I view Plouffe and Milone as similar guys right now, both are more talented then Revere, so both could likely bring back a slightly better package, but both should be traded)

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmm....I do think Ryan is less conservative. Gambler to conservative isn't a switch, it's a scale. I think it would be hard to argue he hasn't moved on the scale.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But I don't get the gambling. What's wrong with a little nudge here and there? A little investment in depth and immediacy? How horrible would it be to have tradable assets at the deadline because the prospects you are gambling on are ready so you have viable veterans to trade?

This is my issue with Ryan. Not the conservative, but the gambler.

I think you are describing two sides of the same coin.  His conservative nature means he is generally loath to commit money or other assets to acquire new players, and that same thing drives his "gambling" on cheap internal or marginal options somehow working out.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Hmmm....I do think Ryan is less conservative. Gambler to conservative isn't a switch, it's a scale. I think it would be hard to argue he hasn't moved on the scale.

 

I agree, this is not 2001 Terry Ryan.  He's still on the conservative side of the spectrum, but refusing to see how he has moved somewhat towards the aggressive is really being unfair.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, this is not 2001 Terry Ryan.  He's still on the conservative side of the spectrum, but refusing to see how he has moved somewhat towards the aggressive is really being unfair.

 

He's definitely more aggressive than he once was, although it has primarily been a reactive (and often late) aggressiveness.  Our big FA SP signings, the Jepsen trade, even the recent Murphy acquisition, he was kinda forced into doing them after his conservative Plan A's blew up, sometimes spectacularly for a full season or longer.

 

The Revere and Span trades remain one of his rare examples of proactive aggressiveness.  As much as he's known as "Trader Terry", he really hasn't made that many unexpected trades (or free agent signings) of significance.

[bird]

 

I agree, this is not 2001 Terry Ryan.  He's still on the conservative side of the spectrum, but refusing to see how he has moved somewhat towards the aggressive is really being unfair.

 

 

I'd agree with this, and go a step further and limit how much "credit" he gets for changing his nature a whole lot. It's just that we're at the stage of the cycle where his major moves take on greater significance.

[Riverbrian]

Terry Ryan had no choice but to aggressively sign Hughes and Nolasco. 

 

Kevin Correia was our top starting pitcher in 2013. 

 

He had absolutely no choice and in order to convince someone halfway decent to come to Minnesota. It took some years to get it done and now we have Ricky Nolasco. 

 

Nolasco was an absolute necessity at the time. 

 

I wouldn't call that aggressive. 

 

Trading Span... I think... actually I'm guessing that the Nationals were calling him and Terry needed pitching bad and was asking for Meyer. When the Braves signed Upton... The Nationals finally agreed to give up Meyer. 

 

I'm also guessing that the Nationals are surprised that Meyer isn't impressing in the bigs right now. 

 

I'm also guessing that Revere to the Phillies was also a by-product of Upton signing with the Braves. With no inside information at all... I'm guessing that Ryan had no plan to trade Revere but the Phillies called because everybody in the NL East gulped when the Braves landed BJ

 

and... 

 

The Twins needed pitching and needed it bad. Getting 2 arms in the deal probably made Terry think to himself. "Mmmm... I wonder if Aaron Hicks can handle CF" 

 

That's what I'm guessing. All those aggressive moves were because the Twins had absolutely no starting pitching at all in 2012 and it was still bad in 2013. 

 

He had no choice

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

He's definitely more aggressive than he once was, although it has primarily been a reactive (and often late) aggressiveness.  Our big FA SP signings, the Jepsen trade, even the recent Murphy acquisition, he was kinda forced into doing them after his conservative Plan A's blew up, sometimes spectacularly for a full season or longer.

 

The Revere and Span trades remain one of his rare examples of proactive aggressiveness.  As much as he's known as "Trader Terry", he really hasn't made that many unexpected trades (or free agent signings) of significance.

 

I agree, we can certainly argue about how good or bad the change has been, but there has been a change.

[jimmer]

When someone is as ultra-conservative as Ryan has been, even a small shift seems huge.  He couldn't have gotten MORE conservative. Only one way to go really.  He's still very conservative.

[DaveW]

Signing mid rotation guys like Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are hardly aggressive. The fact that it appears to be "aggressive" moves shows all you need to know about how things have gone for the past couple decades.

The two real aggressive moves the Twins have  made overal was signing Mauer to the long term deal, and getting the high bid on an elite prospect like Sano.

 

One has paid off big time and the other..well, has been not the best contract but Mauer still might have a couple good years left in him.

 

I was hoping after the success that Sano has shown early on (and in the Twins system prior) they would realize that "hey, maybe paying top dollar for elite talent might be worth it" sadly, they haven't done so again since then.

 

It should be noted that for what they paid Hunter and Pelfrey last season, they only would need to toss in another 5 million or so to have signed Cueto (AAV)

[David HK]

 

Well, the Twins signed Fernando Abad to a minor league deal today.

 

OK, probably not a response to what other teams in the division are doing, but, y'know...

I didn't hear about that.  So this is our guy we get cut-rate instead of Bastardo?  So we return to the WalMart of free agents once again, the same place where we got Thompson and Barbarosa last year?

[The Wise One]

 

Signing mid rotation guys like Nolasco, Hughes and Santana are hardly aggressive. The fact that it appears to be "aggressive" moves shows all you need to know about how things have gone for the past couple decades.

The two real aggressive moves the Twins have  made overal was signing Mauer to the long term deal, and getting the high bid on an elite prospect like Sano.

 

One has paid off big time and the other..well, has been not the best contract but Mauer still might have a couple good years left in him.

 

I was hoping after the success that Sano has shown early on (and in the Twins system prior) they would realize that "hey, maybe paying top dollar for elite talent might be worth it" sadly, they haven't done so again since then.

 

It should be noted that for what they paid Hunter and Pelfrey last season, they only would need to toss in another 5 million or so to have signed Cueto (AAV)

Bastardo still hasn't signed anywhere. At requesting 3/18 it could be awhile before he does find a team.    He wants a contract like Sipp's without the one great year    The signing of a bad relief pitcher who would provide organizational depth is independent of signing Bastardo. That pitcher is a low risk,  maybe reward, but not named Duensing, kind of player.

The Cueto thing is kind of weird as he was not an option when Pelfrey, Hunter, Santana, Hughes signing were done.  Maybe had not one of those signings happened they could have signed Cueto. Then you might as well say if they had not signed any of these players nor Mauer they could have had Grienke,  Cueto and Heyward

[stringer bell]

OK, going into Spring Training 2015, what were the comments about the AL Central? Detroit had won several Central championships in a row and had two Cys and an ERA champ in their rotation plus Miggy and V-Mart, Cleveland was on the cover of SI and the epitome of a team on the rise, the Whities "won" the off-season with the Shark and a revamped BP and KC was solid coming off a World Series run.

 

The only team that came close to meeting expectations was the Royals. If the Twins are solid, they'll have a decent record, if they regress they'll have a worse record. I think the talent will be moderately improved. If the range for victories was 75-85 last year, the range for next year should be 80 to 90. The team was pretty lucky with injuries and a run of disabled list injuries could make reaching the high end impossible.

 

I wanted Plouffe moved, but with so many uncertainties on a team with playoff aspirations, it makes sense to keep a more sure thing for one position.

[DaveW]

 

Bastardo still hasn't signed anywhere. At requesting 3/18 it could be awhile before he does find a team.    He wants a contract like Sipp's without the one great year    The signing of a bad relief pitcher who would provide organizational depth is independent of signing Bastardo. That pitcher is a low risk,  maybe reward, but not named Duensing, kind of player.

The Cueto thing is kind of weird as he was not an option when Pelfrey, Hunter, Santana, Hughes signing were done.  Maybe had not one of those signings happened they could have signed Cueto. Then you might as well say if they had not signed any of these players nor Mauer they could have had Grienke,  Cueto and Heyward

The point was with the money they were able to spend on Pelfrey, Stauffer and Hunter last year, they could use somewhat close to that same amount and sign Cueto this year.