Dear Terry Ryan... Take a look at the AL Central and factor that in

[Riverbrian]

Dear Terry Ryan,

 

I understand that the Twins are young and improving. They came close last year and as a lifelong Twins fan, it was enjoyable to be playing meaningful baseball games deep into September. 

 

It's only natural to assume that the club will continue to improve and if Park pans out, he could be a guy who moves the needle. 

 

However... I hope you are paying attention to the other teams in the AL Central. It just might be the best division in baseball.

 

You can't sleep on the White Sox... They have 3 quality left handed starters and they have made some serious strides fixing what I felt was substandard defense with the additions of Frazier and Lawrie. 

 

The Indians have a great rotation of starters and there are bats that they can acquire to fix what was a substandard offense. 

 

The Tigers have moved quickly to fix what was ailing them last year and that was pitching... rotation and pen. 

 

The Royals are the Royals. 

 

I'm not the type to worry but it's seems quite possible that the Twins will be better in 2016 and it will look worse because of all those games you have to play against the other 4 in the AL Central. 

 

You are going to have to try and keep up if you can

 

Sincerly,

 

Riverbrian

[Blackjack]

This is like throwing red meat to the wolves!! It'll be a feeding frenzy.  Going to fill up my popcorn and sit back and watch.

 

[Platoon]

It's too early for popcorn, I think a nice scone, and some coffee will work for me. And I predict about 6 pages from now, we won't have resolved the issues Brian alluded to. But he is pretty much spot on. This is a site where metrics are much appreciated. I think most metrics show the Twins over performing, and Cleveland and the Sox under performing last year. But I doubt that's going to continue. I also doubt the Twins will go on beating Chris Sale like a drum. But as to "keeping up", we have a ways to go. At the very best our rotation is static, Santana for May. Our bull pen is? Well I guess we wait on that, I think there's still some 32 yr old 90 mph RP unsigned, and our primary offensive change is an expensive lottery ticket. And one which is going to at a minimum make our OF defense "interesting". We probably improved the catching position somewhat, but this ain't Joe Mauer we are putting back there. To date there is no real visible reason to look for a better record than last year, and if just one Central team plays us tougher, that might be optimistic.

[Mike Sixel]

Assuming that, as many here and the Twins said, Hunter helped them win 4-6 more games with his play and leadership, they look worse, right?

[magiklair]

Terry Ryan and the Twins don't care. They are happy if the team is competitive.. They don't want to get past the first round of the playoffs. Nonetheless win the division.. If they did, they'd have acquired some bullpen help.. A lot of people thought things would change once we got the new ballpark. But nope, same Twins..

[nicksaviking]

I truly am fine if the Twins don't do a whole lot in free agency and instead continue on with the original plan of rebuilding by relying on the young talent, filling the holes AFTER they see the spots that the young talent cannot cover.

 

But that's not what the Twins are doing, they still appear to be giving the vets on the team top priority (Mauer, Plouffe, Hughes, Santana, Milone, Fein).  By continuing to play these guys, the team is drawing out the rebuild as the vets blocking the youngsters are stopping us from getting reliable gauge on them.

 

Or they can restock, and do the whole free agency bit. But they can't half *** both approaches like they are currently doing. One or the other, and if they absolutely have a desire to do both, do both WELL.

[Vanimal46]

This upcoming season may be taking one step back before taking 2 steps forward.... I'm hoping more of the younger building blocks (Buxton, Berrios, Kepler) get their shot in the big leagues. But the way the roster is currently set up, I'm not sure if getting above 83 wins is feasible.

[gunnarthor]

Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year.  Our bullpen has Perkins, Jepsen and May at the back end and even if he doesn't sign a single free agent they have guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, Chargois, etc to fill it out plus possibly two failed starters and Burdi, who is not yet on the 40 man roster.  I actually like Pressly and I don't think Burdi's that far away.

 

They'll be fine.

[Platoon]

Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year.  Our bullpen has Perkins, Jepsen and May at the back end and even if he doesn't sign a single free agent they have guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, Chargois, etc to fill it out plus possibly two failed starters and Burdi, who is not yet on the 40 man roster.  I actually like Pressly and I don't think Burdi's that far away.

 

They'll be fine.

I missed something? First, someone has to actually play a non Suzuki, he was far from Johnny Bench last year, and no options were pursued. RF and DH? Sano will likely hit somewhere between his hot start, and his cool ending. He and Park (if Park sticks) will go toe to toe for the AL SO crown. And as much as I disliked Hunter's defense in RF, I doubt Sano will improve that. CF? Even if Buxton has a Hicks like spring, he is probably headed to Rochester. I also like Pressley if he's not hurt. And most of the rest listed, were not up last year. The two that were left Rochester with round trip tickets. The FO obviously loves hard throwing RP, they just don't play them!

[Mike Sixel]

How is DH better than Sano, from last year? How do we know what will happen in RF? CF? Do we know who is starting there? I do agree, the two catchers this year are likely better than the 2 catchers last year.

[Winston Smith]

I really can't see how this team has improved, sorry!

[gunnarthor]

 

I missed something? First, someone has to actually play a non Suzuki, he was far from Johnny Bench last year, and no options were pursued. RF and DH? Sano will likely hit somewhere between his hot start, and his cool ending. He and Park (if Park sticks) will go toe to toe for the AL SO crown. And as much as I disliked Hunter's defense in RF, I doubt Sano will improve that. CF? Even if Buxton has a Hicks like spring, he is probably headed to Rochester. I also like Pressley if he's not hurt. And most of the rest listed, were not up last year. The two that were left Rochester with round trip tickets. The FO obviously loves hard throwing RP, they just don't play them!

Yeah, you missed something but you missed it last year, too.  This is a better team.  

[Platoon]

Yeah, you missed something but you missed it last year, too.  This is a better team.

 

Well I have always been well know for my consistency! :)

[twinsfansd]

I'm just  not sure where you guys get your ideas from. You complain when Ryan doesn't go out and spend millions over several years on old overused bullpen arms, while they are bursting at the seams with strong armed young guys waiting in the wings for a chance. Yet you complain when they use the veteran guys that they have and that they already owe millions of dollars to. Plouffe is arguably the 2nd best bat on the team, yet you want to jettison him.

Every GM loves to be able to bring the young guys along slowly, plugging them into the right situations and letting them figure it out a little at a time. Thus, you keep Fien while you let the young guys pick up some of the low leverage situations until they are ready. I mean really, they have an abundance of strong, young arms, but who do you think has shown  they are truly ready for MLB, not even Tonkin at this point. Yet you don't want to go out and commit to a guy that is going to get 3 years at $9 million a year,  and block the young guys. 

Another thing you have to keep in mind is that you have a good core of young players coming together that are going to start making some serious money in a couple years. You don't want to commit  yourself to a bunch of long term contracts and not be able to lock those guys up when the time is right.

[gunnarthor]

 

How is DH better than Sano, from last year? How do we know what will happen in RF? CF? Do we know who is starting there? I do agree, the two catchers this year are likely better than the 2 catchers last year.

Before Sano, Twins DH were among the worst last year.  I'm not sure if fangraphs numbers are right but Twins DH's excluding Sano hit 5 HR.  Even though I don't think he'll hit as well as Sano, Park will be a consistently good DH for us which is an upgrade.  

 

We don't know what will happen with Buxton and Sano in CF and RF (although not knowing sure hasn't stopped people from claiming the sky will fall).  But both are truly elite prospects and there isn't a lot of reason to think they can't improve on the numbers the Twins got from center and right last year.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Before Sano, Twins DH were among the worst last year.  I'm not sure if fangraphs numbers are right but Twins DH's excluding Sano hit 5 HR.  Even though I don't think he'll hit as well as Sano, Park will be a consistently good DH for us which is an upgrade.  

 

We don't know what will happen with Buxton and Sano in CF and RF (although not knowing sure hasn't stopped people from claiming the sky will fall).  But both are truly elite prospects and there isn't a lot of reason to think they can't improve on the numbers the Twins got from center and right last year.  

 

In your opinion, did Hunter help this team last year with leadership? Where is that void filled? Did he help them on the field? 

[Vanimal46]

A couple of things:

"Plouffe arguably the 2nd best bat on the team, yet you want to jettison him."
 

This is a problem don't you think? Plouffe's defense is above average, and is the reason his value is high on the team. His bat, however, is absolutely average. If he's the 2nd best bat on the team, we have much bigger problems. 
 

 

Thus, you keep Fien while you let the young guys pick up some of the low leverage situations until they are ready. I mean really, they have an abundance of strong, young arms, but who do you think has shown  they are truly ready for MLB, not even Tonkin at this point. Yet you don't want to go out and commit to a guy that is going to get 3 years at $9 million a year,  and block the young guys. 

You're right, the abundance of strong, young arms are most likely not MLB-ready. IMO the majority of posters you'll read on this site are BEGGING to sign a proven bullpen arm for a multi-year deal. 

 

 

Another thing you have to keep in mind is that you have a good core of young players coming together that are going to start making some serious money in a couple years. You don't want to commit  yourself to a bunch of long term contracts and not be able to lock those guys up when the time is right.

 

I assume you're talking about Sano/Buxton/Berrios and the likes that are going to get serious money in a couple of years. Well, a couple of years really is 5-6 years down the line. The Twins can certainly sign any one this off-season to a long term deal, and it will not effect their ability to pay those players when the time is right. 

[twinsnorth49]

too. This is a better team.

How? What exactly makes this team better at this stage?

[scottz]

2015 = 1984?

 

We'll see if there is a 1985 and 1986 before 1987 (2018).

[nicksaviking]

 

Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year.  Our bullpen has Perkins, Jepsen and May at the back end and even if he doesn't sign a single free agent they have guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, Chargois, etc to fill it out plus possibly two failed starters and Burdi, who is not yet on the 40 man roster.  I actually like Pressly and I don't think Burdi's that far away.

 

They'll be fine.

 

I'm not sure I agree about all the upgrades, but I do agree about the young players.

 

But then they need to be played, not behind guys like Fein, Kintzler, Nolasco, Suzuki or even probably Mauer.

[gunnarthor]

 

In your opinion, did Hunter help this team last year with leadership? Where is that void filled? Did he help them on the field? 

Sure, I thought Hunter was a big help for the young guys last year and his calming influence will probably be missed.  But just like Hunter didn't Puckett every year of his career, hopefully these guys won't either.

 

 

[bluechipper]

This year's offense should be much better than last year's. Eduardo Escobar for a full season, Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Oswaldo Arcia bouncing back hopefully, and oh yeah two top ten prospects spending the whole year with the team.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I truly am fine if the Twins don't do a whole lot in free agency and instead continue on with the original plan of rebuilding by relying on the young talent, filling the holes AFTER they see the spots that the young talent cannot cover.

 

But that's not what the Twins are doing, they still appear to be giving the vets on the team top priority (Mauer, Plouffe, Hughes, Santana, Milone, Fein).  By continuing to play these guys, the team is drawing out the rebuild as the vets blocking the youngsters are stopping us from getting reliable gauge on them.

 

Or they can restock, and do the whole free agency bit. But they can't half *** both approaches like they are currently doing. One or the other, and if they absolutely have a desire to do both, do both WELL.

 

This.  If you're going to march Nolasco and Milone to the mound in lieu of Duffy and May....you don't get to hide behind a youth movement anymore.  If you're going to move Sano to keep Plouffe/Mauer...you don't get to hide behind a youth movement anymore.

 

Sorry, but either you're going to roll with Kepler, Duffy, May, Berrios, Sano at 3B, Buxton and the rest (in which case I understand patience) or you need to be aggressive.  This middle ground is indefensible.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year.  

 

So...wait, Arcia is a for sure upgrade over Hicks/Hunter?  I like Arcia and I'm not even willing to say that.

 

We somehow upgrade from Sano at DH with a totally unproven talent?

 

Who even is our CF right now to make that other claim?

[Platoon]

Sorry, but either you're going to roll with Kepler, Duffy, May, Berrios, Sano at 3B, Buxton and the rest (in which case I understand patience) or you need to be aggressive. This middle ground is indefensible. Exactly. I too will accept a learning curve for these guys. But I won't accept a waiting curve, dragging out more or less the same guys who haven't won a thing, while our prized rookies perfect MiLB. For example, Tonkin? Was he Wade Davis? Not hardly. But he wasn't the worst RP on last years staff. But they kept dragging out the chaff to pitch, and kept looking for reasons to send him down.

[bluechipper]

 

So...wait, Arcia is a for sure upgrade over Hicks/Hunter?  I like Arcia and I'm not even willing to say that.

 

We somehow upgrade from Sano at DH with a totally unproven talent?

 

Who even is our CF right now to make that other claim?

I would say that Arcia has the potential to be a big upgrade over Hunter. Park at DH for a year is probably about the same or better hopefully as Sano/nothing for half the year. This guy named Byron Buxton has the chance to be a decent player too.

[Danchat]

Well, the Twins signed Fernando Abad to a minor league deal today.

 

OK, probably not a response to what other teams in the division are doing, but, y'know...

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would say that Arcia has the potential to be a big upgrade over Hunter. Park at DH for a year is probably about the same or better hopefully as Sano/nothing for half the year. This guy named Byron Buxton has the chance to be a decent player too.

 

There is no guarantee Buxton breaks camp with this team.  I'd put better money on Rosario or Santana playing there in April than Buxton.  And even if he is playing, he still has to adjust to MLB pitching.

 

Your other two claims are, at best, pie in the sky.  I hope they happen, but odds are not strong that all of this is true.  It's just not, no matter how much you want them to be.

[bluechipper]

 

There is no guarantee Buxton breaks camp with this team.  I'd put better money on Rosario or Santana playing there in April than Buxton.  And even if he is playing, he still has to adjust to MLB pitching.

 

Your other two claims are, at best, pie in the sky.  I hope they happen, but odds are not strong that all of this is true.  It's just not, no matter how much you want them to be.

Arcia posted a better OPS than Hunter's just two years ago. Last year the DH spot had 21 HR and 82 RBI with a .759 OPS, I think that's a reasonable optimistic stat line for Park. Last year CF had a ..656 OPS, I think Buxton/Santana/Rosario can easily top that.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Arcia posted a better OPS than Hunter's just two years ago. Last year the DH spot had 21 HR and 82 RBI with a .759 OPS, I think that's a reasonable optimistic stat line for Park. Last year CF had a ..656 OPS, I think Buxton/Santana/Rosario can easily top that.

 

You realize those same three players were the guys that contributed heavily to the .656 OPS too....right?

 

Your statline on Park is also likely optimistic.  And even if Arcia and one or two other guys are upgrades, there are also regressions that are likely.  

 

So let's just be a little more cautious about our pom-poms.  There is a lot with this team that is up in the air and anytime you are talking about young players you have to be, at best, cautiously optimistic.