Dear Terry Ryan... Take a look at the AL Central and factor that in

[gunnarthor]

 

So...wait, Arcia is a for sure upgrade over Hicks/Hunter?  I like Arcia and I'm not even willing to say that.

 

We somehow upgrade from Sano at DH with a totally unproven talent?

 

Who even is our CF right now to make that other claim?

Who mentioned Arcia?  Not me. Not Ryan.  Sano is in RF.  Buxton will be in CF.  Even if they make him sit in AAA for six weeks, he'll be an upgrade over the Hicks/Schafer/Robinson thing last year.  As mentioned above, Sano wasn't our fulltime DH and Park should be able to out produce the 1.4 WAR we got from the DH position last year.    

[bluechipper]

 

You realize those same three players were the guys that contributed heavily to the .656 OPS too....right?

 

Your statline on Park is also likely optimistic.  And even if Arcia and one or two other guys are upgrades, there are also regressions that are likely.  

 

So let's just be a little more cautious about our pom-poms.  There is a lot with this team that is up in the air and anytime you are talking about young players you have to be, at best, cautiously optimistic.

Byron Buxton was also seeing his first major league pitching and having his season interrupted by injury and coming off a lost season. I think it's pretty easy to see an upgrade and CF in 2016.

[amjgt]

 

 I too will accept a learning curve for these guys. But I won't accept a waiting curve,

 

Bingo was his name-o

[Rosterman]

Yes, it will be interesting to see next year when an 83-win team could fall to fifth place rather than be a second place team.

 

Of course, besides the middle-of-the-road rotation and a shattered bullpen, the other key is team batting leader Joe Mauer.

 

Looks like they found their 30+ old relief pitcher, perhaps. 

[amjgt]

I don't think anyone would claim that our offense projects to be the same or worse than last year. Unless we see some serious regression from multiple people, it has to be better. And our offense was decent last year, so that's good.

 

The problem is, we've upgraded a team strength, and sacrificed other things. 

 

Defense. I can't possibly see a way that our defense is a good as last year. ESPECIALLY in the outfield, where I think we would all agree it is set to take a huge step back.

 

Pitching. I don't even know what to say here because we've done NOTHING. Having Santana for the full year will hopefully help, I guess. Having Berrios waiting in the wings will be nice (when they eventually promote him). Nolasco? What's the plan? Milone? What's the plan? Duffey? What's the plan? Our best two SP from last year are probably going to start the year in the bullpen (May) and at AAA (Duffey). How is that progress? If our pitchers perform exactly like last year, they will give up more runs because our defense has taken a step back. Color me uninspired.

[amjgt]

 

 

 

Looks like they found their 30+ old relief pitcher, perhaps. 

 

That's why they waited until today to sign him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Defense. I can't possibly see a way that our defense is a good as last year. ESPECIALLY in the outfield, where I think we would all agree it is set to take a huge step back.

While I don't like the defensive alignment the Twins look to put in the outfield in 2016, I think people are forgetting just how little we saw the "good" defensive alignment in 2015.

 

Hicks played in only 97 games. Rosario played in 122. Buxton played in only 46 games.

 

Meanwhile, the desiccated corpse of Torii Hunter played 123 OF games.

 

Last year's team had a lot of OF defensive potential but we didn't get to see that much of it on the actual field.

[Mike Sixel]

As for the offense.....take out the lucky May sequencing, and it wasn't all that great last year, was it? Or am I recalling that wrong?

 

I think this team has about the same record as last year, probably a game or two worse.

[TheLeviathan]

Who mentioned Arcia?  Not me. Not Ryan.  Sano is in RF.  Buxton will be in CF.  Even if they make him sit in AAA for six weeks, he'll be an upgrade over the Hicks/Schafer/Robinson thing last year.  As mentioned above, Sano wasn't our fulltime DH and Park should be able to out produce the 1.4 WAR we got from the DH position last year.

 

Then the argument presented is a false one. It's Sano and Park vs Sano, Hunter, misc

 

That isn't such a clear cut one as presented, largely because we have no clue what Park will be.

[Loosey]

I agree with some the sentiment on here.  The Twins plan is sort of let the young guys learn up here and sort of get some vets.  I think the Twins are close.  Maybe not 2016 close, but if they choose a path (hopefully the youth movement one) and follow that I think we are in for a good couple of years.

 

Instead they keep Plouffe, treat Mauer like he is still a perennial MVP candidate, clog the rotation and pen with mid level veterans and retreads.

 

I would love to see the Twins go 100% youth movement in 2016.  They most likely will struggle for stretches but I think the fans and the players are ready for it.  No more 30 year old washed up relievers on the cheap.

 

I would get guys Chargois, Burdi, Meyer in the pen.  Let them take their lumps.

 

Sano needs to play where he eventually will be a cornerstone.  Which brings me to my next spot, Mauer.  Sano's real position most likely will be 1st base and not 3rd base.  Mauer is causing a kink in the entire system.  The Twins and Mauer would all be best served moving on from each other.  Mauer was a great, great player here for 10 years but his elite years are behind him.  If the Twins could get him to waive his no-trade I would trade him for prospects AND cover 90% of his contract.  I personally think the results of not having him here will improve the team buy letting guys play in their correct positions.

 

Choose a path Twins.  Quit going halfway down the prospect path and then coming back and trying the bargain bin veteran path.

[bird]

This team is going to be far worse. Last place in the division.

 

Ervin Santana will be in the rotation all year, but he'll flop. Hughes is in permanent decline. Duffey was a total fluke. Gibson is at best a #4/5 guy. Ryan will insist Molitor start Nolasco. Berrios will light up AAA and never get a plane ticket to Minneapolis. They'll have Sano for a full year, but he'll flop at the plate and flop around in right field until he injures himself. Rosario will regress. Murphy is a backup catcher. Suzuki won't rebound at all. Perkins will suck after the 4th of July. Jepsen had his one good run. Dozier will suck after the 4th of July. Mauer will suck. Fein is total garbage. We've seen the absolute best from Graham, Tonkin, and Pressley. None of the experiments will pan out: Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis-they'll all flunk out. They ruined Alex Meyer for life. They ruined Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas too. They'll never bounce back. Buxton will be mired in AAA. Kepler was a mirage. They gave up too soon on Pinto. Zack Jones is going to be a superstar. Like Aaron Hicks. Joe Benson is your starting CF. If not him, the guy from last year who they didn't re-sign. Someone told me that. May will be wasted in the bullpen. Tyler Jay was a horrible pick, and won't possibly be ready in 2016. Polanco will be traded for a backup DH. Park will pull a Nishioka. Plouffe will pull a Brian Buscher. Milone will sport a 6 ERA and be our best pitcher. They'll cut Arcia, who overnight will become the next David Ortiz.

 

The only bright spot is we won't have Torii Hunter and all his dang leadership problems.

 

Have a nice day.

[dxpavelka]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.  Heard all the same things last year--BEFORE the Twins improved more than any other team in the division. 

 

[bird]

 

Terry Ryan and the Twins don't care. They are happy if the team is competitive.. They don't want to get past the first round of the playoffs. Nonetheless win the division.. If they did, they'd have acquired some bullpen help.. A lot of people thought things would change once we got the new ballpark. But nope, same Twins..

 

 

Oh yeah. And Terry Ryan and the Twins don't care.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with some the sentiment on here.  The Twins plan is sort of let the young guys learn up here and sort of get some vets.  I think the Twins are close.  Maybe not 2016 close, but if they choose a path (hopefully the youth movement one) and follow that I think we are in for a good couple of years.

 

Instead they keep Plouffe, treat Mauer like he is still a perennial MVP candidate, clog the rotation and pen with mid level veterans and retreads.

 

I would love to see the Twins go 100% youth movement in 2016.  They most likely will struggle for stretches but I think the fans and the players are ready for it.  No more 30 year old washed up relievers on the cheap.

 

I would get guys Chargois, Burdi, Meyer in the pen.  Let them take their lumps.

 

Sano needs to play where he eventually will be a cornerstone.  Which brings me to my next spot, Mauer.  Sano's real position most likely will be 1st base and not 3rd base.  Mauer is causing a kink in the entire system.  The Twins and Mauer would all be best served moving on from each other.  Mauer was a great, great player here for 10 years but his elite years are behind him.  If the Twins could get him to waive his no-trade I would trade him for prospects AND cover 90% of his contract.  I personally think the results of not having him here will improve the team buy letting guys play in their correct positions.

 

Choose a path Twins.  Quit going halfway down the prospect path and then coming back and trying the bargain bin veteran path.

 

Welcome to the dark side, my young Padawan.

[Vanimal46]

 

This team is going to be far worse. Last place in the division.

 

Ervin Santana will be in the rotation all year, but he'll flop. Hughes is in permanent decline. Duffey was a total fluke. Gibson is at best a #4/5 guy. Ryan will insist Molitor start Nolasco. Berrios will light up AAA and never get a plane ticket to Minneapolis. They'll have Sano for a full year, but he'll flop at the plate and flop around in right field until he injures himself. Rosario will regress. Murphy is a backup catcher. Suzuki won't rebound at all. Perkins will suck after the 4th of July. Jepsen had his one good run. Dozier will suck after the 4th of July. Mauer will suck. Fein is total garbage. We've seen the absolute best from Graham, Tonkin, and Pressley. None of the experiments will pan out: Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis-they'll all flunk out. They ruined Alex Meyer for life. They ruined Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas too. They'll never bounce back. Buxton will be mired in AAA. Kepler was a mirage. They gave up too soon on Pinto. Zack Jones is going to be a superstar. Like Aaron Hicks. Joe Benson is your starting CF. If not him, the guy from last year who they didn't re-sign. Someone told me that. May will be wasted in the bullpen. Tyler Jay was a horrible pick, and won't possibly be ready in 2016. Polanco will be traded for a backup DH. Park will pull a Nishioka. Plouffe will pull a Brian Buscher. Milone will sport a 6 ERA and be our best pitcher. They'll cut Arcia, who overnight will become the next David Ortiz.

 

The only bright spot is we won't have Torii Hunter and all his dang leadership problems.

 

Have a nice day.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/24291992.jpg

[Craig Arko]

 

This team is going to be far worse. Last place in the division.

 

Ervin Santana will be in the rotation all year, but he'll flop. Hughes is in permanent decline. Duffey was a total fluke. Gibson is at best a #4/5 guy. Ryan will insist Molitor start Nolasco. Berrios will light up AAA and never get a plane ticket to Minneapolis. They'll have Sano for a full year, but he'll flop at the plate and flop around in right field until he injures himself. Rosario will regress. Murphy is a backup catcher. Suzuki won't rebound at all. Perkins will suck after the 4th of July. Jepsen had his one good run. Dozier will suck after the 4th of July. Mauer will suck. Fein is total garbage. We've seen the absolute best from Graham, Tonkin, and Pressley. None of the experiments will pan out: Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis-they'll all flunk out. They ruined Alex Meyer for life. They ruined Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas too. They'll never bounce back. Buxton will be mired in AAA. Kepler was a mirage. They gave up too soon on Pinto. Zack Jones is going to be a superstar. Like Aaron Hicks. Joe Benson is your starting CF. If not him, the guy from last year who they didn't re-sign. Someone told me that. May will be wasted in the bullpen. Tyler Jay was a horrible pick, and won't possibly be ready in 2016. Polanco will be traded for a backup DH. Park will pull a Nishioka. Plouffe will pull a Brian Buscher. Milone will sport a 6 ERA and be our best pitcher. They'll cut Arcia, who overnight will become the next David Ortiz.

 

The only bright spot is we won't have Torii Hunter and all his dang leadership problems.

 

Have a nice day.

You left out the asteroid.

[Loosey]

 

Welcome to the dark side, my young Padawan.

You have rubbed off on me.  The Dark Side feels . .. . Right.

[bird]

 

You left out the asteroid.

 

 

You're right. Adam Brett Walker III is gonna flame out like a runaway planetoid. FIFY.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, it only took three pages for it to become an all-or-nothing thing.

 

As someone that has been vocal against people for being too hard on the Twins for not signing a Grienke person, or for criticizing what I think is an interesting gamble on Murphy, or for not spending like drunken sailors....there is still plenty of room to criticize.

 

We seem to be shying away from relievers due to money.  We seem to be shuffling a talented kid with only 25 starts under his belt to the bullpen.  We seem intent to wedge Milone and Nolasco into the rotation, one because he throws with his left arm and the other so we don't feel like the money is wasted.  We seem intent on keeping Plouffe around to give him what will surely be a stupid extension.  We continue to fill our bullpen with Casey Fiens rather than gambling on Burdi's or a hard throwing FA.  And I'm still not sure where we value defense.

 

This offseason gave us some good, aggressive moves at the outset that made me optimistic.  Since then we've done nothing to a roster that still has plenty of needs.  I'm not ready to declare it a failure, there is still plenty of time, but the reliever market thins by the day.  It's time to keep adding to this team.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't think anyone would claim that our offense projects to be the same or worse than last year. Unless we see some serious regression from multiple people, it has to be better. And our offense was decent last year, so that's good.

 

The problem is, we've upgraded a team strength, and sacrificed other things. 

 

Defense. I can't possibly see a way that our defense is a good as last year. ESPECIALLY in the outfield, where I think we would all agree it is set to take a huge step back.

 

Pitching. I don't even know what to say here because we've done NOTHING. Having Santana for the full year will hopefully help, I guess. Having Berrios waiting in the wings will be nice (when they eventually promote him). Nolasco? What's the plan? Milone? What's the plan? Duffey? What's the plan? Our best two SP from last year are probably going to start the year in the bullpen (May) and at AAA (Duffey). How is that progress? If our pitchers perform exactly like last year, they will give up more runs because our defense has taken a step back. Color me uninspired.

There's a reason why they did nothing with the pitching. They have young guys in Berrios and Duffey ready to contribute, and there's reasonable hope that Phil Hughes bounces back, to go along with a solid Gibson and Santana.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This team is going to be far worse. Last place in the division.

 

Ervin Santana will be in the rotation all year, but he'll flop. Hughes is in permanent decline. Duffey was a total fluke. Gibson is at best a #4/5 guy. Ryan will insist Molitor start Nolasco. Berrios will light up AAA and never get a plane ticket to Minneapolis. They'll have Sano for a full year, but he'll flop at the plate and flop around in right field until he injures himself. Rosario will regress. Murphy is a backup catcher. Suzuki won't rebound at all. Perkins will suck after the 4th of July. Jepsen had his one good run. Dozier will suck after the 4th of July. Mauer will suck. Fein is total garbage. We've seen the absolute best from Graham, Tonkin, and Pressley. None of the experiments will pan out: Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis-they'll all flunk out. They ruined Alex Meyer for life. They ruined Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas too. They'll never bounce back. Buxton will be mired in AAA. Kepler was a mirage. They gave up too soon on Pinto. Zack Jones is going to be a superstar. Like Aaron Hicks. Joe Benson is your starting CF. If not him, the guy from last year who they didn't re-sign. Someone told me that. May will be wasted in the bullpen. Tyler Jay was a horrible pick, and won't possibly be ready in 2016. Polanco will be traded for a backup DH. Park will pull a Nishioka. Plouffe will pull a Brian Buscher. Milone will sport a 6 ERA and be our best pitcher. They'll cut Arcia, who overnight will become the next David Ortiz.

 

The only bright spot is we won't have Torii Hunter and all his dang leadership problems.

 

Have a nice day.

 

I love this post in all it's glory.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Before Sano, Twins DH were among the worst last year.  I'm not sure if fangraphs numbers are right but Twins DH's excluding Sano hit 5 HR.  Even though I don't think he'll hit as well as Sano, Park will be a consistently good DH for us which is an upgrade.  

Actually, non-Sano Twins DHs hit 6 HR last year.  The trick at Fangraphs is not to click DH position button (which uses totals of players who "qualify" as DHs), but instead use the drop-down DH split:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2015&month=44&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Still, overall Twins DH's posted a 109 wRC+ last year, 7th in the league.  It's far from clear that Park will even match that, much less be an upgrade, although Sano's bat should be an upgrade wherever he plays.

[DaveW]

My letter is much simpler but gets to the same point:

Dear Terry Ryan,

 

Please step down from GM (again)

 

Thanks,

[drjim]

I do think most of the chance for the Twins competing will come from internal improvements, like it does for most teams most years. I would like to see another reliever, possibly two added, a better veteran OF option, and possibly some consolidation in the back end of the rotation, but that last one is probably more wishful thinking. Even if they do great on a reliever and a veteran OF, that really doesn't add a whole lot to the total wins, the angst seems a little overblown.

 

I see improvement happening like this -

 

Rotation: Hughes bounces back a little, Santana is here all year, Gibson stays about the same, and the collection of Milone/Nolasco/Berrios/Duffey scrounge out representative 4-5 spots in the rotation.

 

Bullpen: Should be better, maybe significantly especially if May spend the whole season there. This would be helped by adding a good lefty, and I do think a guy or three should emerge out of Burdi/Reed/Chargois/Pressly/etc.

 

Lineup: A little upgrade at C, probably an upgrade at SS with Escobar there all season, Dozier and Plouffe should be about the same, and OF/1B/DH should at least wash as there is enough depth to compensate for injuries and bad performance. I would like a better veteran OF option. The big beta here, in my mind, is Sano and Buxton - they have the talent to explode, with the potential to add 5-7 wins between the two of them, but I think at the very least they should about equate the production from last year.

 

There is some optimism here (especially in the rotation), but if they only match last year in wins it would be a mild disappointment in my mind. There is enough upside that it could be significantly better, even with the few moves they have made.

[TheLeviathan]

The thing is, if things are "about the same" as last year we're probably looking at a win regression because of that two month stretch where we played at an unsustainable rate.  (Wins vs. run differential and runs scored vs. opportunities, etc.)

 

We have to improve the roster and the performance just to maintain last year.  I think it's possible, but two of the routes I see us best accomplishing it  - the rotation (Duffy, May, Berrios all in the rotation striking people out) and the bullpen (adding some people who strike people out) - right now look to be trending the wrong way, not the right way.

 

That makes me a bit worried.

[drjim]

The thing is, if things are "about the same" as last year we're probably looking at a win regression because of that two month stretch where we played at an unsustainable rate. (Wins vs. run differential and runs scored vs. opportunities, etc.)

 

We have to improve the roster and the performance just to maintain last year. I think it's possible, but two of the routes I see us best accomplishing it - the rotation (Duffy, May, Berrios all in the rotation striking people out) and the bullpen (adding some people who strike people out) - right now look to be trending the wrong way, not the right way.

 

That makes me a bit worried.

I guess I see both, especially the bullpen, as in better shape heading into the season relative to how it performed last year.

 

There is certainly an opportunity, perhaps even an easy opportunity, to upgrade both before the season starts. But they are better in my mind.

 

Perhaps luck cancels this out but I'm skeptical.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess I see both, especially the bullpen, as in better shape heading into the season relative to how it performed last year.

Especially the bullpen?  Really?  They added Jepsen, but Perkins is a bigger question mark.  If May is there, that certainly helps, but he was there and Fien was doing well at the end of the season and we still had serious issues...

[drjim]

Especially the bullpen? Really? They added Jepsen, but Perkins is a bigger question mark. If May is there, that certainly helps, but he was there and Fien was doing well at the end of the season and we still had serious issues...

Correct. Having May and Jepsen in the pen from day 1 make it clearly better than last year.

 

And adding a good lefty would make it that much better still.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Correct. Having May and Jepsen in the pen from day 1 make it clearly better than last year.

And adding a good lefty would make it that much better still.

 

I endorse this statement.

[DaveW]

 

The thing is, if things are "about the same" as last year we're probably looking at a win regression because of that two month stretch where we played at an unsustainable rate.  (Wins vs. run differential and runs scored vs. opportunities, etc.)

 

We have to improve the roster and the performance just to maintain last year.  I think it's possible, but two of the routes I see us best accomplishing it  - the rotation (Duffy, May, Berrios all in the rotation striking people out) and the bullpen (adding some people who strike people out) - right now look to be trending the wrong way, not the right way.

 

That makes me a bit worried.

Agreed, it was a 73-75 win team last year that ended up winning 83 games, perhaps the best thing (other than a playoff berth) for the long term would be for the Twins to win less than 80 games this year. This would hopefully be a "kick" to management that shows them they need to alter their plans. The worst thing that can happen this year is the Twins win 86 games and miss the playoffs (while once again getting lucky)