Ranking the Minnesota Twins' Starting Rotation: Whom Can You Trust Right Now?

The Minnesota Twins' starting rotation was supposed to be a strength coming into 2026. On paper, it still is. And through the first stretch of the season, the numbers back that up. The Twins currently rank 5th in baseball in starting pitcher fWAR and sit in the top half of the league in ERA. But the way it has come together has looked very different than expected.

Injuries to Pablo López and David Festa created immediate uncertainty, and questions around velocity and performance for Bailey Ober and Zebby Matthews only added to it. Outside of Joe Ryan, there were more question marks than answers heading into Opening Day.

A month into the season, though, the results have been better than many expected—not dominant across the board, but steady enough to keep the team afloat while things sort themselves out. With that in mind, here is a confidence ranking of the current Twins starting rotation.

1. Joe Ryan*
With López sidelined, Ryan stepped into the ace role like everyone expected and has continued to deliver in the way he always does.

He owns a 3.76 ERA on the season, almost perfectly in line with his 3.79 career mark, and he leads the team in fWAR at 1.1. The strikeout rate has dipped slightly and his ERA+ is down a bit from last year, but the overall profile has not changed much.

Ryan continues to give the Twins a dependable outing almost every time he takes the mound. He has allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his seven starts, and there is a level of long-term consistency that the rest of the rotation has not matched. With free agency approaching, his long-term future in Minnesota may be uncertain. His role as the most trusted arm in the rotation is not.

Of course, after Sunday, there's a massive caveat to all of this, of the kind you never want attached to the person at the top of this kind of ranking. Ryan left his start against the Blue Jays with elbow soreness, throwing another long shadow of uncertainty over this unit (and the team of which it's a part) at a terrible moment. He's still the most trustworthy pitcher in the group, but we'd have said the same thing of Pablo López three months ago, too.

2. Taj Bradley
There was plenty of hype surrounding Bradley coming into the season, and so far, he has managed to exceed it. The 2025 trade deadline acquisition has been one of the most reliable starters on the staff, leading the team with 41 innings pitched while posting a 2.85 ERA and a 25.2% strikeout rate. Outside of one rough outing against his former team on April 24, he has consistently limited damage and kept the Twins in games.

He's quickly gone from a high-upside addition to someone the Twins can count on every fifth day, which is not always an easy transition to make. At the young age of 25, there's plenty of upside remaining for the right-hander, too.

3. Bailey Ober
If Bradley brought the most excitement into 2026, Ober entered the season with the most uncertainty. After a difficult finish to 2025 that included a 6.30 ERA from June on, along with a hip injury and declining velocity, expectations were understandably low. The velocity concerns have not disappeared, either, as his fastball is averaging just 88.2 mph.

Even so, Ober has found a way to put together a solid start to the season. Through six outings, he holds a 3.94 ERA and has done a much better job limiting damage. One of the biggest differences has been his ability to keep the ball in the park. After allowing 30 home runs last year, he has given up just three through 32 innings so far. He's not overpowering hitters or piling up strikeouts, but he has adjusted his approach, induced weaker contact, and avoided the big innings that hurt him last season.

4. Connor Prielipp
It may feel early to have Prielipp this high, but the early returns make it understandable. The sample size is still small, which makes this ranking more about projection than a full body of work. Even so, he has shown enough to stand out. He has allowed two earned runs in each of his starts, including one outing where he gave up just a single hit over five innings.

What stands out most is the quality of his stuff. Prielipp has shown the ability to miss bats and generate movement, and he looks comfortable attacking hitters at the major-league level. When you pair that with his pedigree as one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, it's easy to see why confidence is already building.

5. Simeon Woods Richardson
This is where things start to shift in the opposite direction. Not long ago, Woods Richardson was viewed as one of the more dependable options in the rotation. He was not dominant, but he consistently gave the Twins competitive innings and avoided major blowups.

That version has not been there to start 2026. He has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his first seven starts and carries a 6.49 ERA. Just as concerning is the drop in strikeouts, with his rate sitting at 10.6%. The consistency that once defined him has not shown up, and without it, it becomes much harder to trust what each outing might look like.

There is still plenty of time for things to shift, and this group will likely look different as the season goes on. For now, though, this is where the confidence levels stand. What do you think? Who do you trust most in this rotation right now, and who are you still unsure about? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!