The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[twinsnorth49]

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

[Reider]

 

I'd like to point out that in a season where it made no sense we had the record we did (which we all enjoyed) we WERE one step away from the playoffs.  That doesn't mean it's a fact we actually are truly a team with the talent to be one step from the playoffs going into next year.

 

And we don;t know if he can maintain his hitting.  We do know that less than 200 MLB level PAs isn't anything we can draw a conclusion from.  Even if we could, he had an okay OPS even with a very high BABIP and history shows only the very best hitters in the game can come close to maintaining one as high as he had last year. What happens when that goes down at least 50 points (which would still be above average?)

Well you're right. A lot can happen and a lot does happen. We don't know what will happen in the future, whether it's for the better or worse.

 

The Twins finished the season a step away from making the playoffs. But things have changed since then. Hunter retired, Hicks got traded away, Hermann is gone, Murphy is now here etc..Obviously there are still holes to fill in the line up as it's early in the off season. However, Terry Ryan has been busy working and one can only assume that his work this off season is not complete yet. My assumptions / opinions are based on the premise that Terry Ryan is going to try and assist this franchise in taking another step forward by putting the right pieces in place. If he sits on his hands from here on out, obviously the Twins won't be taking another step forward! This really should have went without saying.

 

You're right, we don't know if Murphy can hold up his hitting, but that could be said about every other player in the MLB, including the soon to be 39 year old A.J Pierzynski. Sure you can say that players like A.J have a track record, but so did Joe Mauer. At the end of the day, given our options, I don't dislike the idea of going with a younger catcher. Lets just see how he does before jumping to any conclusions, one way or the other.

 

I know fans want to replace Suzuki with a much better / proven catcher, but who? There is only one Joe Mauer and he's already on the team, but not catching anymore. It's difficult to find an elite catcher right now. I think fans should at least give Murphy a chance.

 

 

 

[Reider]

 

 

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

At this point I support the trade. If I had to be critical, obviously in a year where you want to take a step forward and make the playoffs, you'd want a veteran catcher with a proven track record to help you take that next step, instead of a young back up catcher from another team. That's a risk Terry Ryan is taking, but there's always a risk.

 

However, after watching all of the young guys contribute last year, I feel more confident about a good young catcher coming in and contributing. At the very least, I'm hopeful that he won't stink the joint up. He'll be okay as long as he puts up decent hitting numbers. The Twins still have Suzuki, so it's not like we're putting all of our eggs in one basket. What if Suzuki has a bit of a rebound year and Murphy continues playing the way he has been, if not better? We're golden.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd like to point out that in a season where it made no sense we had the record we did (which we all enjoyed) we WERE one step away from the playoffs.  That doesn't mean it's a fact we actually are truly a team with the talent to be one step from the playoffs going into next year.  

 

And we don;t know if he can maintain his hitting.  We do know that less than 200 MLB level PAs isn't anything we can draw a conclusion from.  Even if we could, he had an okay OPS even with a very high BABIP and history shows only the very best hitters in the game can come close to maintaining one as high as he had last year. What happens when that goes down at least 50 points (which would still be above average?)

Good post!  That's a pretty unbiased point of view.  Your assessment of the Twins readiness to compete is in-line with the assessments I have heard of the twins by baseball analysts.  They all talk about the young core developing and the team being a competitor once guys like Berrios and Kepler are added and this young core gets a couple years experience.   Therefore, it seems incredibly ill-advised to trade for LuCroy and give up the very assets that likely push us over the top for a player that will only be here for two years.  This type of don’t worry beyond next year thinking is exactly the type of strategy that perpetuates mediocrity.   

 

That leaves Weiters and Norris in terms of the names bantered around here.  Weiters obviously wanted to stay in Baltimore and a strong arguments have been made that there are better ways for this specific team to spend that money.  For example, Park is a gamble but Park & Murphy should be  >>>>> Suzuki & Weiters.  Park also gives us a much needed big bat behind Sano.  Weiters has his own risks.  He has only played 100 games in the past 2 seasons combined.

 

Norris was a reasonable option but I don’t really see much difference between them and we don’t know what the Padres wanted in return. 

The Twins stated it was a major objective to stop the running game.  AJ obviously was not the answer to that problem.  He obviously was also a band aid (1 year) solution.

[Platoon]

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

I seriously waffle on the trade, so to me it's a meh! The part of me that doesn't like the trade because we gave up Hicks likes the general fact that we addressed the catching situation. An absolute necessity. The part of me that wishes the catcher acquired was "more talented" acknowledges we dealt from excess and needed to clear the OF logjam. And understand high end catchers are rare as hens teeth. The part of me that's a pragmatist says that this trade is not enough to make or break TR's legacy. It's just a trade of two mid level players which in its own way helps each team. Its pros and cons will not be defined for about two years, and is certainly not work 20 pages of digital distress! (He says as he types on pg. 20)

[USAFChief]

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

Potential redeeming value: Murphy proves to be good enough to fill the C position for 120 games per year at a level acceptable for a strong team for several years. If that happens, I don't worry about the potential of Hicks or the probable short term OF hole in 2016.

 

Or, proves good enough to be a viable backup over the same time, while Hicks doesn't get much if any better.

 

I put something like a 40 percent chance of either of those happening, but they certainly could. If you add in the chance neither player is very valuable going forward, it's even a bit higher.

 

3-2 long shots come through all the time. So personally I just have to hope this is one of those times.

[jokin]

 

 The Twins still have Suzuki, so it's not like we're putting all of our eggs in one basket. What if Suzuki has a bit of a rebound year and Murphy continues playing the way he has been, if not better? We're golden.

 

Not really. If Suzuki does have a rebound year, there's a strong possibility that his option vests. The last time the Twins had a chance to trade him in July of 2014 at his absolute peak value... they extended his contract instead. I actually think the Twins would be OK with Zuke sticking around for 2017 if this all comes about. Not golden in my book.

[maxisagod]

 

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

 

Good question. I supported the trade in theory or in general because, I always felt the Twins should trade OF depth for C depth. There was a hole in the system for some time, so I liked that TR did this instead of losing OF to the wavier wire (which might still happen). I also remember a year and a half ago when some fan (and some annoying members of the media) proclaimed Hicks was done or a lost cause, and there were too many chances being given. So that fact they waited until Hicks regain value was not a bad plan. Also the catching market is turning out to be weaker after two top FA decided not to try free agency.

 

Flipping it. I think the Twins should have gone for a catching prospect with more of a ceiling, if they'd had be able to do this a couple years ago they could have timed that players ascension with the rest prospect wave. I think success at Target field might come from OF range and having a future outfield of Roserio, Buxton, and a Hicks that lived up to his potential would have been great. Also I have no feel on Murphy, Maybe he's a back-up, a regular, or a late bloomer who will look like a Norris in a future. I can say he looks like a MLB player so the Twins will get some value from him.

[TheLeviathan]

I think it's quite possible that Murphy becomes a capable starting catcher and Hicks is the frustrating player we saw in most of his games with us.

 

In fact, I could see them having a roughly similar OPS next year.  In which case I'd gladly take the catcher in that situation.

[nicksaviking]

Let's flip the switch, can anyone against this trade see any potential redeeming value for the Twins and can anyone supporting it see any reason it doesn't make much sense?

 

Honestly interested in that feedback.

I don't want to say I'm for the trade exactly, but I have been defending it.

 

I'd say my biggest problem with it has nothing to do with Hicks, because I'm not high on him and am looking forward to possibly better offensive players getting his ABs, my concern is that the Twins settled for Murphy. The trade happened so soon I to the off season that I have a hard time buying that the Twins got a definitive 'No' on better young catchers. I absolutely would have tossed in Stewart, Reed, Arcia or of course a sign and trade of Duensing to get a young catcher with a higher ceiling.

 

In conjunction with that concern, I'm worried that because the Twins acted on this so soon, they think Murphy is something he's not. Of course that could also mean the Twins know he's something that the rest of us don't.

[jimmer]

 

Well you're right. A lot can happen and a lot does happen. We don't know what will happen in the future, whether it's for the better or worse.

 

The Twins finished the season a step away from making the playoffs. But things have changed since then. Hunter retired, Hicks got traded away, Hermann is gone, Murphy is now here etc..Obviously there are still holes to fill in the line up as it's early in the off season. However, Terry Ryan has been busy working and one can only assume that his work this off season is not complete yet. My assumptions / opinions are based on the premise that Terry Ryan is going to try and assist this franchise in taking another step forward by putting the right pieces in place. If he sits on his hands from here on out, obviously the Twins won't be taking another step forward! This really should have went without saying.

 

You're right, we don't know if Murphy can hold up his hitting, but that could be said about every other player in the MLB, including the soon to be 39 year old A.J Pierzynski. Sure you can say that players like A.J have a track record, but so did Joe Mauer. At the end of the day, given our options, I don't dislike the idea of going with a younger catcher. Lets just see how he does before jumping to any conclusions, one way or the other.

 

I know fans want to replace Suzuki with a much better / proven catcher, but who? There is only one Joe Mauer and he's already on the team, but not catching anymore. It's difficult to find an elite catcher right now. I think fans should at least give Murphy a chance.

What I was saying was the talent level on this team shouldn't have given us 83 wins (glad it did though, it was nice) and Ryan isn't the type of GM that is going to add significant players to raise that talent level a good chunk for that to change.  If our talent level last year was an 83 win team, then that would be different, I would be right there with you, but we were barely average in a couple areas and below average-horrible in others .

 

AL rankings:

Offense:
15th in OBP
14th in wRC+
14th in position player WAR

yet 8th in runs.

Pitching:
9th in team FIP
8th in team pitching WAR
9th in rotation FIP
7th in rotation WAR

Defense:

12th in DRS
10th in UZR

 

That doesn't scream 83 win team.  And it's not like the majority of this team unperformed where we'd expect bounce-back seasons.  Most were in-line with what they've done most of their career (or the last few years), so it's not like we should have had 83 wins and we had a bunch of horrible performances in relation to career norms.

 

As far as not knowing how any hitters area going to perform, you are right.  Thing is though, we do know that maintaining a BABIP over .350 over a career is practically impossible, which is what pushed Murphy's OPS into the whopping .730 area.  Even Miggy Cabrera doesn't have a career .350ish BABIP.

[DaveW]

I think it's quite possible that Murphy becomes a capable starting catcher and Hicks is the frustrating player we saw in most of his games with us.

 

In fact, I could see them having a roughly similar OPS next year. In which case I'd gladly take the catcher in that situation.

Agreed, I just don't think it's the most likely outcome. I hope Murphy proves me wrong, big time

[jimmer]

 

At this point I support the trade. If I had to be critical, obviously in a year where you want to take a step forward and make the playoffs, you'd want a veteran catcher with a proven track record to help you take that next step, instead of a young back up catcher from another team. That's a risk Terry Ryan is taking, but there's always a risk.

 

However, after watching all of the young guys contribute last year, I feel more confident about a good young catcher coming in and contributing. At the very least, I'm hopeful that he won't stink the joint up. He'll be okay as long as he puts up decent hitting numbers. The Twins still have Suzuki, so it's not like we're putting all of our eggs in one basket. What if Suzuki has a bit of a rebound year and Murphy continues playing the way he has been, if not better? We're golden.

Suzuki's 2014 was out of whack with what he normally does (like Hughes 2014)  Suzuki actually had his rebound season this year.

[Silky]

 

Another off-season has come with the Twins having significant holes in the lineup and pitching staff, and another off-season has started out with Terry Ryan filling a said hole with a mediocre player instead of bringing in an impact player.

 

Make no mistake about it, John Ryan Murphy is NOT a good catcher, he rates out as average at best defensively, and offensively he never did anything in the minors to write home about. Can he someday potentially become league average? I suppose so, but league average is not something to strive for, especially not when you are giving up an asset in Aaron Hicks who has just turned the corner and looks to be a potential steal for the Yankees. Guys who have gold glove defense in CF, can hit 20+ HR and steal 20+ bases don't grow on trees. Of course Hicks wasn't always the model "Twins way" type player, so he was easy to part with by Ryan and company, just like a certain other "non Twins way" player TR let walk for nothing in his first stint, I believe that players name was David Arias and all he did was go on to win multiple world series, MVPs and hit 500+ HR after he left. Sweet.

 

It's not just 2015 where Ryan has settled for mediocrity as well: Going back the last two off-seasons Ryan has spent well over a 100 million locking up middle of the rotation veterans such as Nolasco, Santana and Hughes, ignoring that the team has needed a front end of the rotation type ever since Santana was shipped out of town. In 2014 instead of trying to fix the DH/LF/SS spots, Ryan decided to bring back Bartlett and Kubel, two players that had no business being on a major league roster. Instead of upgrading the pen heading into 2015, Ryan brought in Tim Stauffer and Boyer, Stauffer was as bad as we all expected and even though Boyer exceeded our expectations, he wasn't the 7th/8th inning guy this team sorely needed.

 

Additionally heading into 2015 Ryan had a corner OF spot to fill (and at the time it looked like CF as well), Nelson Cruz was there for the taking along with several other options, many  of which were more than affordable, what does he do? Signs Torii Hunter for a retirement lap, all Hunter did was hit below average and play at a level that was barely above replacement level.

 

I was hoping that this off-season would be different, Pak and trading Herrmann for anything were two nice small steps forward and I admidt I was getting excited to see what the Twins would do this off-season, but of course 2 small steps forward are followed up by a HUGE step backwards. Now the Twins have yet another hole in the OF to start the season, and to fill it they seem content by inexplicably moving Sano to LF, a move that doesn't make any sense any way you slice it.

 

Perhaps Ryan has an aggressive and GOOD move or two up his sleeve still, and I admidt it's still early, however as the old saying goes, fool me once? shame on me, fool me 17 times? No world series contender anytime soon.

Hello DaveW, 

 

Was John Ryan Murphy an upgrade at Catcher? Yes or No.  What free agent catcher would you have signed to qualify as not settling for mediocrity?  Or, better yet, why don't you make up a fantasy trade where we give up a little to get a significant upgrade at catcher. Love to hear what you'll come up with to blow us away with your baseball savvy. 

 

Silky

Twins fan who has glass half full

[DaveW]

Hello DaveW,

 

Was John Ryan Murphy an upgrade at Catcher? Yes or No. What free agent catcher would you have signed to qualify as not settling for mediocrity? Or, better yet, why don't you make up a fantasy trade where we give up a little to get a significant upgrade at catcher. Love to hear what you'll come up with to blow us away with your baseball savvy.

 

Silky

Twins fan who has glass half full

Lucroy (would have given up Kepler), Norris, plawecki, and I would have given Weiters 3 years 45

[Silky]

 

Lucroy (would have given up Kepler), Norris, plawecki, and I would have given Weiters 3 years 45

Hicks gets you John Ryan Murphy. Kepler doesn't get you Lucroy. At this point, today, you would have to give up a lot more than Kepler for Lucroy.  

 

What are you giving up for the other catchers?  And I assume you want to trade for Weiters and give him an extension. I'm sure all of those catchers you mentioned are available...assuming the "right" price.  So, if we would have traded a number of prospects and current roster players to get any of the catchers you mentioned than we would have been taking the right step to become World Series contenders.  

 

I'm not buying what you're selling.

[SwainZag]

 

Um, I said I liked the Pak move and the Herman trade, in fact I have said that in this thread and other threads over the past week.

 

I liked the Jepsen trade, the original Phil Hughes signing and don't mind the Santana signing.

Stop with the "oh dave, he just hates everything Ryan does" meme.

I'm not applauding him for acting early, a  bad trade is a bad trade no matter when you make it. IMO this is a bad trade.

 

I also stated how this wasn't the first time Ryan has "acted" early, Nolasco was one of the first pitchers signed that year and it didn't work out, big time. (And was even widely considered an overpay once the market set itself)

 

Did you like the Jepsen trade?  Seems posts from Jepsen thread on trade deadline say the opposite.  It's the same old song and dance.

 

1.  TR makes move.

2.  Blast the hell out of the front office, Get out the pitch forks, Fire Ryan, Fire Ryan, incompetence.

3.  When trade doesn't work out, bring it up every argument about Ryan.  Site 17 years, 1 playoff win.

4.  Trade does work out, flip the script. I liked trade from the start.

 

The season can't start soon enough and I was always a HIcks fan!  I can't believe I spent the last hour reading all 19 pages of this thread.
 

 

 

DaveW, on 31 Jul 2015 - 11:27 AM, said:
OMFG, HU? Fire Ryan.

DaveW, on 31 Jul 2015 - 11:29 AM, said: Ryan has no business being a general manager. I hope the Twins either make the playoffs or lose 30 more games this season to ensure that heads will roll.

Posted 31 July 2015 - 11:40 AM Ryan should be ran out of town for this crap and his lack of other action to fix the pen.

Posted 31 July 2015 - 11:53 AM  Just a terrible trade all around, Jepsen is the worst RP traded thus far and unlike the others had to be overpaid to acquire him.  It's clear that Ryan bundled the deadline from start to finish

Posted 31 July 2015 - 11:54 AM
Like the saying goes:
Fool me once, shame on me.
Fool me twice, shame on you.
Fool me every year for the last 17 years: Fire Ryan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DaveW]

Jepsen worked out, but again we gave up to much to acquire him. I liked bringing in a RP but didn't like giving up an asset like Hu to get him.

 

Also, only adding Jepsen was a mistake as the pen still let us down overall down the stretch run, Ryan gets a C- overall for the deadline. Should have tried to fix the pen much earlier, and should have gotten more than just one arm. Hu could end being a real nice pitcher as well.

 

Again it was Ryan refusing to be aggressive at the deadline that sank the twins chances to make the playoffs(just like he has in his other 16 deadlines and 17 off seasons)

[DaveW]

Hicks gets you John Ryan Murphy. Kepler doesn't get you Lucroy. At this point, today, you would have to give up a lot more than Kepler for Lucroy.

 

What are you giving up for the other catchers? And I assume you want to trade for Weiters and give him an extension. I'm sure all of those catchers you mentioned are available...assuming the "right" price. So, if we would have traded a number of prospects and current roster players to get any of the catchers you mentioned than we would have been taking the right step to become World Series contenders.

 

I'm not buying what you're selling.

the Wieters move/thought was before he signed with the Orioles with the QO. Kepler and a mid level prospect or two might get you Lucroy, the brewers are in full rebuild mode. I would gladly give up Gibson+Stewart+ prospect for Lucroy.

 

There is my answer for you, my question for you and others is naming the last time Terry Ryan was ever truly aggressive?

[PseudoSABR]

 

There is my answer for you, my question for you and others is naming the last time Terry Ryan was ever truly aggressive?

Truly aggressive? What does that even mean?  If signing the homerun champ  out the KBO doesn't qualify, nothing will meet your silly standard.   

 

Your problem with Terry Ryan isn't about aggressiveness; it's about player evaluation.  Tactically, trading Hicks for a young, league-average catcher makes plenty of sense--you just don't like the catcher.

 

What's frustrating is your turning a matter of differing opinion into a criticism on strategy.  Just because the Twins didn't trade for concussed Lucroy or sign the unavailable Weiters, doesn't mean that they the alternative is settling on mediocrity.  In fact, the Twins unwillingness to stick with Arcia, Vargas (or Sano) at the DH situations, seems to suggest that they aren't settling--they are being bold.  Whether you like Parks or Murphy or Palka, it's hardly the strategy that warrants criticism.  

 

Suzuki and Hermann behind the plate next year is your mediocrity.   Hicks in CF and Buxton at AAA is your mediocrity.  Vargas at DH is your mediocrity.   The Twins didn't settle in any of those situations.  

 

 

[DaveW]

Signing an ace or impact bat (or trading for one) even once would be showing aggressiveness. I said I liked the Pak signing, but let's pump the breaks for a minute, his 12 mil posting fee is extremely small when you compare to past posting fees paid for premium players.

 

Signing Chris Davis would be an aggressive move,signing Cueto would be an aggressive move, hell even signing Cruz last year would have been an aggressive move, signing Pak is a good move but no where near what they could do. Ditto with Santana, nolasco, etc

The last 17 seasons with Ryan at the helm has shown us very little in results, how about for once we try to bring in a game changer type player?

[sane]

 

"naming the last time Terry Ryan was ever truly aggressive?"

When he signed Ervin Santana for 4 years / $55million

[DaveW]

When he signed Ervin Santana for 4 years / $55million

that's not an aggressive move, that is basically a league average FA contract for a guy who is a mid rotation guy.

 

When was the last time the twins even tried to bring in an ace or a great position player?

[DaveW]

Here is another question: in the last 20 seasons Ryan+Smith era, how many teams in baseball have won one or less post season series?

 

Is this the group of franchises we want to continue be a part of?

[glunn]

Moderator note -- please be gentle in holding other posters accountable for posts that they made in the past.  I am glad that Dave took this in stride, but such exchanges sometimes lead to bickering.

[sane]

that's not an aggressive move, that is basically a league average FA contract for a guy who is a mid rotation guy.

 

When was the last time the twins even tried to bring in an ace or a great position player?

Santana was the 4th ranked FA pitcher last year by MLBTR, trailing ONLY Schertzer, Lester and Shields. Mid-rotation??????? No!!!!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[DaveW]

Santana was the 4th ranked FA pitcher last year by MLBTR, trailing ONLY Schertzer, Lester and Shields. Mid-rotation??????? No!!!!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Santana is not an ace, nor ever has been an ace. He is much more mid rotation then he is "front of the rotation" most would agree, and the stats point to it as well.

 

Note: I would love to try to get shields via trade, that is the exact buy low aim high type move, plenty of upside left for him IMO

[Don Walcott]

 

that's not an aggressive move, that is basically a league average FA contract for a guy who is a mid rotation guy.

When was the last time the twins even tried to bring in an ace or a great position player?

1991

[Don Walcott]

I would love to see the Twins spend the money on bringing in an Ace and a great position player.  I think they can afford it.  And I think they'd actually see revenues increase.  And I'd bet Terry Ryan would love to make a big signing or two.  However, I fear that the ownership, not Ryan, is the impediment.  The Twins have a history of being cheap, and crying poor.  And many fans join that bandwagon and blame the "overpaid" players.  Instead of criticizing Ryan so much, I think we should question the owners who never show enough faith in this team to spend the money they should to make us contenders.

[DaveW]

I have nothing good to say about the Pohlad family. So I agree with you there.