The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I do prefer Murphy to Pierzynski this week, although if we had taken a shot at a better catcher and fell back to AJ or a similar placeholder vet, that would have been okay...

That would have been my play as well - I would have gone after Wieters - but after Pierzynski went right back to the Braves so early in the offseason, that opportunity left the station far more quickly than any of us expected.

 

Ryan could have easily found himself scratching for his D or even E level option, which is not a place a GM wants to find himself when the team's catching depth is so abysmal.

 

I don't care for the move to acquire Murphy but I can't really fault Ryan for jumping at it, either.

[h2oface]

The same folks that like this trade are probably the same folks that liked Capps for Ramos, and Meyer for Span, and are still saying that they were good trades. Total speculation disclaimer. Some will always like the management/admin no matter what they do, even if it does prove to suck.  "I feel that it was a good risk at the time, and still do". Yup. That will probably not change for the rest of their lives. Personally, I don't buy it. If I hadn't become a Twins fan as a child watching  and listening to Halsey Hall and Herb Carneal and Ray Scott call the games on WCCO and in black and white on the TV and with the earphone in my ear from my little transitor radio, I would have tired of this type of management years ago. As it is, I can't help but to continue to suffer.

[bird]

 

The Hicks trade was a nice money saving move.  Murphy will likely play enough to ensure Suzuki's option doesn't kick in AND we avoid arbitration money for Hicks after the 2016 season while Murphy is a couple years from it (and could be backed up more with option, I believe). It's a win win. :-)

 

 

I doubt this seriously entered into Ryan's calculus, do you?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The same folks that like this trade are probably the same folks that liked Capps for Ramos

I ran a message board when the Capps trade went down.

 

I'd estimate less than 5% of the board didn't hate the trade. The deck was stacked against that one from day one and we all saw it.

 

So let's not compare anything to the Capps trade. It's for the best.

 

There are reasons not to love or even like this trade but as with too many things nowadays, everything is either the greatest or worst thing to ever happen in the known universe.

 

Like almost everything else on the planet, this trade falls somewhere between those outliers. On paper, it's a relatively fair swap of talent. I don't care for it myself but at least I try to be objective about these things.

[Otto von Ballpark]

WAR projections often get the expected plate appearances wayyyyyyy off, which makes them basically useless.

 

Hicks received nearly 400 PAs last season. Murphy didn't even hit 180.

 

Hell, Steamer has Murphy projected for one PA in 2016. Lulz.

 

Also, it's a bit odd to hold Murphy's crazy BABIP against him but not Hicks' extreme outlier month.

 

The two players are something close to a wash in past performance. If someone wants to argue Hicks is a potential breakout, that's a fair argument... But that argument is based on hopes and wishes, not actual statistics... So it's best to leave the statistics at home for this one.

You make some fair points, but some miss the mark. Hicks' strong peripherals (K%, BB%, ISO) were present for more than a month. And his solid 2015 was over twice as large of a sample as Murphy's.

 

I don't even know their projected WARs, that wasn't my argument, but there is absolutely a place for statistics at this table.

[jimmer]

 

I doubt this seriously entered into Ryan's calculus, do you?

no, it was just a joke.  I'm sure some might believe that Ryan did take it into account, but I was just messing.

[sane]

 

When will that be exactly?  A couple years ago, many were saying this year.  

I'm not sure when (or if) it will be, but I am 99% sure it wasn't this season, with THIS team.

A rotation of Duffy, Hughes, Milone, Gibson and Pelfrey and a murderers row of Dozier, Mauer,  Plouffe, Sano, Rosario, Hunter, Hicks, Suzuki, Escobar, against the Royals, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mets.

[jimmer]

 

The same folks that like this trade are probably the same folks that liked Capps for Ramos, and Meyer for Span, and are still saying that they were good trades.

I'm curious what umbrella I fall under. I liked the attempt Ryan made with the Span/Meyer trade (not the results, but the thought behind the trade) but also hated the Ramos for Capps trade for many reasons :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You make some fair points, but some miss the mark. Hicks' strong peripherals (K%, BB%, ISO) were present for more than a month. And his solid 2015 was over twice as large of a sample as Murphy's.

I don't even know their projected WARs, that wasn't my argument, but there is absolutely a place for statistics at this table.

I consider them both too SSS to really evaluate on any of the numbers.

 

For example, Hicks received 98 PAs in July (roughly half Murphy's overall 2015 line) and rocked a .365 BABIP.

 

Obviously, that won't last. Hicks' OPS in non-July months? .623, .547, .591, .701.

 

That's really bad, folks.

 

I was a big Hicks supporter this season. I thought he started to turn the corner... And he did, only to immediately trip over a curb and land on his face.

 

The guy is a huge question mark. Talent-for-talent, this is a pretty fair trade, even if I don't really care for it. Any support for Hicks isn't really grounded in statistics, it's a Hail Mary for a flawed player who had a good month (and, again, this is coming from someone who saw something different in Hicks last season... But once again, it didn't last).

[jimmer]

 

I'm not sure when (or if) it will be, but I am 99% sure it wasn't this season, with THIS team.

A rotation of Duffy, Hughes, Milone, Gibson and Pelfrey and a murderers row of Dozier, Mauer,  Plouffe, Sano, Rosario, Hunter, Hicks, Suzuki, Escobar, against the Royals, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mets.

Is it safe to say that whenever Ryan does go for it (if that day ever comes), that will be the time it was right to do so?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not sure when (or if) it will be, but I am 99% sure it wasn't this season, with THIS team.

A rotation of Duffy, Hughes, Milone, Gibson and Pelfrey and a murderers row of Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Sano, Rosario, Hunter, Hicks, Suzuki, Escobar, against the Royals, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mets.

Rangers? Couldn't their fans have made a similar argument, before they added Hamels, Napoli, Dyson, Diekman, etc. at the deadline? I recall many of their vets (i.e. Choo) were underperforming at the time too...

[sane]

 

 

Is it safe to say that whenever Ryan does go for it (if that day ever comes), that will be the time it was right to do so?

 

It is much safer to say that whenever Ryan does go for it, everyone on this blog will say it was the WRONG time to do so..

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let's stay on topic, people. Leave the "you're a front office defender/hater no matter what happens" talk at the door.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I consider them both too SSS to really evaluate on any of the numbers.

 

For example, Hicks received 98 PAs in July (roughly half Murphy's overall 2015 line) and rocked a .365 BABIP.

 

Obviously, that won't last. Hicks' OPS in non-July months? .623, .547, .591, .701.

 

That's really bad, folks.

 

I was a big Hicks supporter this season. I thought he started to turn the corner... And he did, only to immediately trip over a curb and land on his face.

 

The guy is a huge question mark. Talent-for-talent, this is a pretty fair trade, even if I don't really care for it. Any support for Hicks isn't really grounded in statistics, it's a Hail Mary for a flawed player who had a good month (and, again, this is coming from someone who saw something different in Hicks last season... But once again, it didn't last).

Hicks raked in July, yes, and benefitted from BABIP that month. But his underlying peripherals were otherwise solid the whole year, even at AAA, and represented a big step forward from 2013-2014 (admittedly a low bar ).

 

I don't know if it will last, but I guarantee you the Yankees and Twins aren't looking at either of these guys and waving the numbers away. I think this trade is as much a bet on each player as it is a surplus swap.

[sane]

 

Rangers? Couldn't their fans have made a similar argument, before they added Hamels, Napoli, Dyson, Diekman, etc. at the deadline? I recall many of their vets (i.e. Choo) were underperforming at the time too...

Yes, and they failed to make it, even though they added Hamels, Napoli, Dyson, Diekman, etc. at the deadline

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks raked in July, yes, and benefitted from BABIP that month. But his underlying peripherals were otherwise solid the whole year, even at AAA, and represented a big step forward from 2013-2014 (admittedly a low bar ).

 

I don't know if it will last, but I guarantee you the Yankees and Twins aren't looking at either of these guys and waving the numbers away. I think this trade is as much a bet on each player as it is a surplus swap.

That's fair. I'm sure the Yankees are eyeing up Hicks' breakout potential and the Twins are eyeing up Murphy's rise through MiLB and lack of playing time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes, and they failed to make it, even though they added Hamels, Napoli, Dyson, Diekman, etc. at the deadline

I'm confused, you just held them up as a legit contender that should have discouraged the Twins from acting aggressively... and now you're saying the Rangers made a poor decision in acting aggressively to become a legit contender, because they weren't really legit after all?

 

How many teams are justified in acting aggressively each year? Is it retroactively just the two teams that reach the World Series? Or just the team that wins?

 

Did we just change goalposts again, like your question about SF Giants deadline trades?

 

Either way, I am sure the Rangers regret their playoff appearance.

[Major League Ready]

 

Because that means they got crummy value for Hicks and lost the trade. There was nothing saying that:

1. Hicks had to be traded now

2. Hicks had to be traded this year

3. Hicks had to be traded for a catcher and catcher only

Dave,

 

When a neutral part with the credibility associated with ESPN says it was an equitable trade and you think it is horrendous, you might want to ask whether you don't understand some aspect of this instead of assuming that others are clearly wrong.

 

Edited by glunn to conform with TD policy.

[jimmer]

 

It is much safer to say that whenever Ryan does go for it, everyone on this blog will say it was the WRONG time to do so..

that was funny!  potato salad tried to force it's way out my noise. thanks for that 

[spinowner]

 

If the Twins had a better hitter taking Shane Robinsons at bats those 50 games it stands the reason that they may have been able to make the playoffs.
 The Twins never gave Arcia a real chance to succeed last year at the major league level.

Many of those Robinson starts took place before Hicks (may he rest in peace ) and Buxton were moved to the major league roster. He saw very little action during the last two months of the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Many of those Robinson starts took place before Hicks (may he rest in peace ) and Buxton were moved to the major league roster. He saw very little action during the last two months of the season.

Yeah, the proper complaint might be that we didn't have a better placeholder than Schafer/Robinson. (Rasmus was my choice.)

[spinowner]

I've looked at (not necessarily read) every post. And when I look at the sum total of what we've written here it is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. (Apologies to what's-his-name who wrote that first.)

The trade will turn out the way it turns out. Nobody will know for years whether it was a good one for either team. As for me, I hope that Murphy evolves into a perennial all-star.

[jimmer]

I think everyone hopes Murphy evolves into a perennial all-star.  We ARE all Twins fans after all and want things to work out for our team.  We just disagree on what is best for the team.

[sane]

 

"How many teams are justified in acting aggressively each year? Is it retroactively just the two teams that reach the World Series? Or just the team that wins?"

How about the final four? KC, Mets, Blue Jays and Cubs.

At what level would Twins bloggers 9or you) call the season (plusTerry Ryan and the Pohlads) a success?
 

[sane]

At what level would Twins bloggers (or you) call the season (plusTerry Ryan and the Pohlads) a success?

[Platoon]

I've looked at (not necessarily read) every post. And when I look at the sum total of what we've written here it is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. (Apologies to what's-his-name who wrote that first.)

The trade will turn out the way it turns out. Nobody will know for years whether it was a good one for either team. As for me, I hope that Murphy evolves into a perennial all-star.

Is this observation inclusive? :!

[Craig Arko]

[DaveW]

 

They're not a wash. Murphy was slightly in the positive in extra strikes (+5.1 in 3111 chances) according to BP and Pierzynski was well into the negative (-14.1 in 6615 chances), worse than Suzuki.

 

AJ Pierzynski is one of the worst defenders in baseball. You may have wanted him over Murphy - and I won't really argue that point - but let's call a spade a spade. AJ Pierzynski is a nearly-40 catcher who has been bad behind the dish for a very long time now.

Sweet, so you found one random stat that says Murphy is better, meanwhile overall fangraphs had Murphy as the 4th worst in the MLB, lets call a spade a spade, Murphy isn't "good" defensively and his ceiling is "average" at the dish.

What is that?

 

http://i.imgur.com/v1F1hk3.png?fb

[DaveW]

 

Dave,

 

When a neutral part with the credibility associated with ESPN says it was an equitable trade and you think it is horrendous, you might want to ask what you don't understand instead of assuming everyone else is an idiot.

When have I ever said everyone is an idiot? I haven't called one poster out by name, I haven't called one analyst out for being an idiot. You can disagree, but knock it off with the personal hyperbole attacks.

 

Yes, Keith Law ONE guy said it was a fair trade (but he never was a Hicks guy anyways) meanwhile you don't have to look very far to find several experts (and folks on TD) who say the Yankees won the trade

[Physics Guy]

 

The trade that doomed them didn't even happen in the 2014 run, it was the one this prior off season (donaldson)

Trading Russell wasn't the smartest move either.