The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While I agree with most of what you've said, I'll have to chose to disagree with this.  I tend to think just the opposite.  I think the Murphy/Suzuki split will be 90/70 games or even 100/60.  I will be extremely disappointed if you are right.

Did you see my post above?  Straight from the source, Murphy has to win "a job" out of spring training just to "divide the catching a little bit more", which is a long way from Murphy being the nominal starter in 2016 or cutting Suzuki's playing time in half.

[nicksaviking]

 

Are we sure about that?  What if Hicks comes anywhere close to hitting his Steamer projection numbers?

 

I meant we wouldn't have much to complain about Suzuki if he's actually contributing.

 

But no, I have been on this site long enough to know that there will always be a boatload of things to complain about.

 

[jokin]

 

Did you see my post above?  Straight from the source, Murphy has to win "a job" out of spring training just to "divide the catching a little bit more", which is a long way from Murphy being the nominal starter in 2016 or cutting Suzuki's playing time in half.

 

Plus, you have to add to that the idea that Suzuki has management's trust in handling the pitching staff, and presumably the pitchers largely have that same level of trust.  Are the Twins any time soon even remotely likely to hand over those responsibilities full-time to a 24 year old who has never been a major league regular? I fully expect Zuke to start at least 67% of the games (~110 games), just somewhere comfortably enough below the 485 PA threshold to avoid a union grievance.

[Physics Guy]

 

Did you see my post above?  Straight from the source, Murphy has to win "a job" out of spring training just to "divide the catching a little bit more", which is a long way from Murphy being the nominal starter in 2016 or cutting Suzuki's playing time in half.

Nope, it was one of the few I missed on this thread.  I'm amazed I've read as many as I have.  You don't think Antony may have been saying that for Suzuki's benefit being he is the incumbent?  You don't think the FO ever says something they don't 100% mean?  My take on it is that they want Murphy to play as much as he earns which should be more than Suzuki if 2015 is representative of their abilities.

[jokin]

 

  You don't think the FO ever says something they don't 100% mean?  My take on it is that they want Murphy to play as much as he earns which should be more than Suzuki if 2015 is representative of their abilities.

 

Care to wager on this actually happening?

[DaveW]

 

Wow if trading Hicks (for a part time catcher) garners 17 pages of posts what will happen when Plouffe is traded for a AA control-type pitcher no one has heard of?

Not nearly as many posts because
1. Plouffe doesn't have the upside Hicks does, Plouffe is an average player (which is fine)

2. Plouffe has a better player behind him (Sano) ready to take over now! Do the Twins have 3 players better than Hicks in the OF currently? Nah.

[DaveW]

 

I would suggest the start of this offseason is certainly a change.  Ryan is pushing himself out there as someone that wants to get things moving early, when typically he'd sit back until the winter meetings.

 

You don't have to like the moves, but this certainly hasn't been the "same old Terry Ryan".  

Terry Ryan signed Nolasco pretty early a couple years ago (Dec 3rd), didn't work out too well as he grossly overpaid when waiting longer would have served him better.

Pak, obviously it was now or never time with him, so hard to give Ryan for "being aggressive early" on him.

 

Murphy? Perhaps like Nolasco he jumped too early and overpaid, should have waited for the market to play itself out a bit, then get a guy like Murphy (platoon type for Suzuki) without giving up a stud in the making like Hicks.

[DaveW]

 

. For me, the point is that bringing in Murphy, if that's your only move at C, is another example of the organization settling for average. THAT is my frustration with Ryan. Whenever he deals, signs a FA, etc. the guys he brings in almost all have a low ceiling.

That was what the thread was about, and I agree with you 100%

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nope, it was one of the few I missed on this thread.  I'm amazed I've read as many as I have.  You don't think Antony may have been saying that for Suzuki's benefit being he is the incumbent?  You don't think the FO ever says something they don't 100% mean?  My take on it is that they want Murphy to play as much as he earns which should be more than Suzuki if 2015 is representative of their abilities.

I think I skipped 10 or so pages on this thread, so no worries.

 

If they really want Murphy to play as much as he earns, why did you cap it at 90-100 starts for him?

 

Which is more in keeping with the Twins character?

 

- Obfuscating a desire to bench a veteran player

 

or

 

- Deferring to a veteran player in the role of their choice

 

I tend to think the latter.

[DaveW]

I would be pretty surprised if Suzuki doesn't get at least 250 PA next year (unless he is injured), which I guess is fine, but again, don't trade real assets for part time players!

[DaveW]

 

 be a boatload of things to complain about.

Yes, 5 straight seasons with no post season appearances will do that.

[jokin]

 

Not nearly as many posts because
1. Plouffe doesn't have the upside Hicks does, Plouffe is an average player (which is fine)

2. Plouffe has a better player behind him (Sano) ready to take over now! Do the Twins have 3 players better than Hicks in the OF currently? Nah.

 

If the Twins trade Plouffe for a veteran RP without an upside prospect included in the deal, then yeah, the board will blow up.

[jokin]

 

I think I skipped 10 or so pages on this thread, so no worries.

 

If they really want Murphy to play as much as he earns, why did you cap it at 90-100 starts for him?

 

Which is more in keeping with the Twins character?

 

- Obfuscating a desire to bench a veteran player

 

or

 

- Deferring to a veteran player in the role of their choice

 

I tend to think the latter.

 

I'm surprised at how many Twins fans don't understand the concept of "organizational inertia" and "past is prologue"- and how it epitomizes Twins' management.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Terry Ryan signed Nolasco pretty early a couple years ago (Dec 3rd), didn't work out too well as he grossly overpaid when waiting longer would have served him better.

Pak, obviously it was now or never time with him, so hard to give Ryan for "being aggressive early" on him.

 

Murphy? Perhaps like Nolasco he jumped too early and overpaid, should have waited for the market to play itself out a bit, then get a guy like Murphy (platoon type for Suzuki) without giving up a stud in the making like Hicks.

 

Look, if you can't read into your responses that you are giving ZERO latitude for these moves to be successful, I can't help you.  There is no point espousing your opinion anymore, you've clearly articulated it as "I don't like Ryan and nothing he does will work out"

 

Ok, noted.  I don't like Ryan either at this stage in our team's progress, but I'll at least look at each move with some degree of reason and fairness.  If you can't do that, I'm not sure why you're even interested in a discussion in the first place. 

[DaveW]

 

Look, if you can't read into your responses that you are giving ZERO latitude for these moves to be successful, I can't help you.  There is no point espousing your opinion anymore, you've clearly articulated it as "I don't like Ryan and nothing he does will work out"

 

Ok, noted.  I don't like Ryan either at this stage in our team's progress, but I'll at least look at each move with some degree of reason and fairness.  If you can't do that, I'm not sure why you're even interested in a discussion in the first place. 

Um, I said I liked the Pak move and the Herman trade, in fact I have said that in this thread and other threads over the past week.

 

I liked the Jepsen trade, the original Phil Hughes signing and don't mind the Santana signing.

Stop with the "oh dave, he just hates everything Ryan does" meme.

I'm not applauding him for acting early, a  bad trade is a bad trade no matter when you make it. IMO this is a bad trade.

 

I also stated how this wasn't the first time Ryan has "acted" early, Nolasco was one of the first pitchers signed that year and it didn't work out, big time. (And was even widely considered an overpay once the market set itself)

[jokin]

 

whydidnt, on 13 Nov 2015 - 11:36 AM, said:
. For me, the point is that bringing in Murphy, if that's your only move at C, is another example of the organization settling for average. THAT is my frustration with Ryan. Whenever he deals, signs a FA, etc. the guys he brings in almost all have a low ceiling.

 

 

 

That was what the thread was about, and I agree with you 100%

 

My only minor quibble with "whydidnt" is that the Twins are "hoping" for average, which is still less than a certainty to manifest itself, and that the other priority was filled, in that Murphy rather conveniently fits into the Twins traditional version of a budget-ball roster filler for the next two seasons.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Um, I said I liked the Pak move and the Herman trade, in fact I have said that in this thread and other threads over the past week.

 

I liked the Jepsen trade, the original Phil Hughes signing and don't mind the Santana signing.

Stop with the "oh dave, he just hates everything Ryan does" meme. It's trolling.

 

To me it would seem to be pointing the "Troll" sign in the proper direction.  You have demonstrated precious little fairness in your tirades against us dealing Babe Ruth, I mean Aaron freaking Hicks.

[DaveW]

 

To me it would seem to be pointing the "Troll" sign in the proper direction.  You have demonstrated precious little fairness in your tirades against us dealing Babe Ruth, I mean Aaron freaking Hicks.

I never said Hicks was a sure thing hall of famer or anything like Ruth. I said he has a high ceiling and is already close to a 20/20 guy (with gold glove caliber D in CF) I have said that Murphy, by most accounts has an "average catcher" upside. Some people disagree, and that is fine.

 

I have been more than fair to discuss this with several people in this thread and haven't made it "personal" against anyone. Not sure why you are using such hyperbole for my stances and opinions.

[jokin]

 

To me it would seem to be pointing the "Troll" sign in the proper direction.  You have demonstrated precious little fairness in your tirades against us dealing Babe Ruth, I mean Aaron freaking Hicks.

 

Strawman noted.

 

(Dave and I don't see eye to eye on much of anything.  But I think the case has been made that this is an unnecessarily questionable move- I don't like the exchange of dissimilar players or the relative ratios for success of both players.  Pushing harder for one of the other two NY prospect catchers would have made a lot more sense.)

[TheLeviathan]

I have no problem not liking the trade, as long as you go about it fairly.

[DaveW]

 

My only minor quibble with "whydidnt" is that the Twins are "hoping" for average, which is still less than a certainty to manifest itself, and that the other priority was filled, in that Murphy rather conveniently fits into the Twins traditional version of a budget-ball roster filler for the next two seasons.

Good point.

[jimmer]

 

Care to wager on this actually happening?

Can I join in on this? :-)

[Dman]

Won't the Twins do everything in their power to let the Suzuki contract vest?  Wasn't the purpose of the vesting primarily for Injury concerns?  This is the Twins after all and with Ryan at the helm they have integrity and to me that means Suzuki will vest unless injured.

 

Maybe they would renegotiate but I think the Twins will give him every opportunity to vest for next years contract as I would guess that was the handshake agreement.

[Platoon]

Won't the Twins do everything in their power to let the Suzuki contract vest?  Wasn't the purpose of the vesting primarily for Injury concerns?  This is the Twins after all and with Ryan at the helm they have integrity and to me that means Suzuki will vest unless injured.

 

Maybe they would renegotiate but I think the Twins will give him every opportunity to vest for next years contract as I would guess that was the handshake agreement.

While I don't think they should, if I remember correctly 2 yrs ago he had a 1/2 to 3/4 mil bonus for plate appearances, and in a 90 loss season, they caught him everyday and let Pinto sit so he could cash in! While it certainly wasn't funny that Pinto got whacked in the head 3 times next spring wiping out his season, it would have been humorous to listen to the Twins say he needs more MLB experience had that not happened.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- there is too much bickering here.  If it continues then infractions will be assessed against BOTH sides.  Please STOP the personal squabbling.

[h2oface]

Impressive. 20 pages of comments in, and someone is still paying attention. 

[h2oface]

 

Hunter and AJ is a deeply flawed analogy on a number of levels. The most relevant one is Hunter joined a 72-win team that was yet to get production from its best prospects. I know that some discount the "intangible" story that gets reinforced constantly (Cashman most recently), but the risks are not at all similar now with Murphy. And the risks with AJ are very much greater than they were with Hunter if for no other reason than where the team is now in the cycle.

 I believe in intangibles. I think Hunter helped the Yankees get a better Aaron Hicks, for sure. I was hoping all that mentoring was actually to improve the Twins, though.

[jimmer]

I think it's possible for people to believe in intangibles and still balk at the idea that one person should get credit for a team winning perhaps double-digit more games than they should because of them.  This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

 

All things people equal, I'd rather have Hunter than AJ due to intangibles.  I don't think it's a 12 win difference though.  

[Reider]

As time goes on and the more I think about it, the more I am okay with / like this trade. Given the fact that the Twins are one step away from making the playoffs, it was important for Terry Ryan to bring stability to the catcher position. And while analyzing this trade, it is important to give special consideration to the fact that the market is currently weak for catchers.

 

While it's true that the Twins could have signed AJ without giving up Hicks, Murphy is young. He has young knees, he can hit and there's plenty of opportunity to learn and improve. Considering the fact that the young players on the Twins played a large role in the team winning a lot more games than the last few years, I feel confident that, while Murphy may not be the next Joe Mauer, he will at least bring stability to the catcher position.

 

The future will tell us more, but for now, I don't think we can go wrong with a decent young catcher, who can hit.

[jimmer]

 

As time goes on and the more I think about it, the more I am okay with / like this trade. Given the fact that the Twins are one step away from making the playoffs, it was important for Terry Ryan to bring stability to the catcher position. 

I'd like to point out that in a season where it made no sense we had the record we did (which we all enjoyed) we WERE one step away from the playoffs.  That doesn't mean it's a fact we actually are truly a team with the talent to be one step from the playoffs going into next year.  

 

And we don;t know if he can maintain his hitting.  We do know that less than 200 MLB level PAs isn't anything we can draw a conclusion from.  Even if we could, he had an okay OPS even with a very high BABIP and history shows only the very best hitters in the game can come close to maintaining one as high as he had last year. What happens when that goes down at least 50 points (which would still be above average?)