Trade Dozier, Plouffe, now

[mnfanforlife]

Hey, i get it. They are both really good. But I really dont think their trade value will ever be higher. And we have some internal options that are pretty much ready to step right in at 3B and 2B. Your thoughts?

[Craig Arko]

I'd probably hold off until the WS is over.

[mnfanforlife]

OK, but right after that?

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Hey, i get it. They are both really good. But I really dont think their trade value will ever be higher. And we have some internal options that are pretty much ready to step right in at 3B and 2B. Your thoughts?

Not a bad idea. Who do you see replacing Dozier at second? Polanco has committed a lot of errors in the minors.

[Winston Smith]

Not sure either of these guys should be considered really good.

[Loosey]

With Dozier you wait until the All-Star break if his past two seasons are any sort of trend.  If he bats .250 with 15+ HR at the break, I would trade him with the assumption that he will drastically decline as pitchers begin to remember he doesn't hit outside pitches or low pitches well.

 

I wonder if I am the millionth person to say this next part, I would trade Plouffe for a catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW, KLAW suggests keeping Sano at DH, and either keeping Plouffe, or getting an even better defensive 3B.......that was, of course, just a quick post on his chat today, so the usual disclaimers about it being off the cuff apply....

[stringer bell]

Probably not the best idea, perhaps one of the two. Both players are coming off second half performances that were disappointing, particularly Dozier, so trading them now would be selling low in terms of on-field performance. Another factor would be the loss of power that their combined 50 homers last year would represent. The prospective replacement for Plouffe would figure to hit as many bombs as Trevor (I'm thinking Vargas/Arcia, Sano is in the lineup somewhere), but there would be a loss of power in replacing Dozier. Add in a projected outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Mauer at first and the team will be challenging KC for the fewest HRs in the AL.

 

 

[Loosey]

 

Probably not the best idea, perhaps one of the two. Both players are coming off second half performances that were disappointing, particularly Dozier, so trading them now would be selling low in terms of on-field performance. Another factor would be the loss of power that their combined 50 homers last year would represent. The prospective replacement for Plouffe would figure to hit as many bombs as Trevor (I'm thinking Vargas/Arcia, Sano is in the lineup somewhere), but there would be a loss of power in replacing Dozier. Add in a projected outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Mauer at first and the team will be challenging KC for the fewest HRs in the AL.

Or you get 2nd half Dozier for the full season . . . .  .210/.280/.359 (.639)  Only 9HR

 

Which I guess still projects to about 18 HRs.  But if I had my way I would take 10HR guy that can get on base at a clip better that .280.

[Hrbowski]

I guess that now that our top prospects are graduating we need to keep the farm stocked. Next people will be calling for us to trade Sano and Buxton because they are no longer prospects. Come on guys, this is what is supposed to happen.

[mnfanforlife]

 

.... but there would be a loss of power in replacing Dozier. Add in a projected outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Mauer at first and the team will be challenging KC for the fewest HRs in the AL.

 

Emulating KC wouldn't be such a bad thing

[mnfanforlife]

Yes, Polanco at 2B. Sano at 3B. Maybe the Twins could land a nice catcher or a real SS in trade for one or both (Plouffe and Dozier)

[mnfanforlife]

I do like Eduardo Escobar and think he should be given the sarting job this spring. So....not sure where Nick Gordon fits into the picture. They want him to stick at SS, but he could end up being an All-Star 2B if his brother showed us anything. Gordon is probably better offensively and faster on the bases than Jorge Polanco? So, maybe the Twins do target a young SS prospect this winter.

[USAFChief]

A Plouffe trade can be rationalized for a team trying to win in 2016.

 

A Dozier trade cannot.

[Boom Boom]

I think the contract we gave Dozier, plus that creepy full-size cardboard cutout of him they sent to season ticket holders means that we're married to him and he's not going anywhere. I'd listen on trade offers for him, though.

 

Trading Plouffe seems more likely, but in my perfect world he'd stick at third, Sano would play first, and Mauer... well, I don't care.

[halfchest]

I could see Plouffe, don't see how they justify moving Dozier though.  Had a down 2nd half but overall numbers over past 2 1/2 seasons are very very good .240/322/.435/.747 stat line over those years. 

That's solid for anywhere and very good for 2B, especially when you add plus defense to the equation.  So don't let his slow 2nd half fool you.  wins, homeruns, ,etc. count just as much in the 1st half as the 2nd half. 

 

Also, the idea of trading him midway through the year is a bit ridiculous if we're contending, which hopefully we will be.  So let's say he's again on pace for over 30 bombs and has an OPS over .800 at the break.  How on earth can anyone justify trading him away from a competing team.  That kind of trade just doesn't happen.   Much more likely that we trade away Polanco in that scenario.  IF dozier were to get moved it would have to be in the offseason or if we just suck next year. 
 

[Winston Smith]

Dozier to the Yankees for Murphy and Refsnyder? 24 yr old guys that have showed some promise, the catcher we need and a younger replacement for Dozier. Might turn out great or they both could bomb. Worth the chance? Dozier would fit right in with the Yankees.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Yes, Polanco at 2B. Sano at 3B. Maybe the Twins could land a nice catcher or a real SS in trade for one or both (Plouffe and Dozier)

They have a real SS in Escobar and another one Nick Gordon only a few years away. There is no need to trade these players. Right now the Twins have 3 players (Sano, Plouffe and Mauer) to play at 3B, 1B and DH. Vargas and Arcia should NOT be handed the DH spot for next season as they were both bad this past season. As someone stated earlier Dozier trade value right now is pretty low. He's had back to back great 1st halves and awful 2nd halves.  No team is going to give up a great prospect for either player especially a catcher. Also, as someone pointed out earlier Polanco is bad in the field. Not just below average he's actually bad. He'll make some tough plays but then boots the easy ones. Or he'll make a great fielding play then his throw will be off. With the Twins staff not great at striking out people they need good fielders, which both plouffe and dozier are.

[gunnarthor]

All these trades depend on what you get back.  I do think that Dozier would be easier to replace with Polanco.  Sano can outhit Plouffe but I'm not sure he could handle third base and if he can't, we're looking at someone like Nunez there.

 

 

[ashbury]

Yes, Polanco at 2B. Sano at 3B.

Polanco's bat is probably not ready. Sano's glove is probably not ready.

 

I wish it was instead like the situation when Mauer came up, glove and bat both ready, and trading AJ was obvious. But it's not.

 

Trading even Plouffe is IMO a bigger gamble than many fans see, and trading both these veterans invites some kind of infield disaster that makes 2016 a lost season.

 

Midseason 2016, maybe Polanco has used his bat at AAA to knock on the major league door, and Sano has settled into making most of the plays we've finally become accustomed to seeing at 3B for a couple of seasons now. That'll be the time to look into trading either of the two vets.

[DaveW]

Plouffe absolutely. Dozier, doesn't make sense as you don't have someone who can match or come close to his production at 2nd (note: Rosario can't play 2B any more)

 

However if you can get equal value for Dozier, i.e. a good catcher, then you consider it absolutely.

[HitInAPinch]

Funny you brought this up.  Last week in MLB Rumors, Plouffe was mentioned as a possible trade target and the Yankees had a really bad situation at 2B they wanted to fix, fast.

 

The Plouffe trade rumor was based on the White Sox are in need of a 3B and Plouffe's name was mentioned as a potential target.

 

The Yankees are hoping to sign Daniel Murphy, but there would be a lot of suitors for the free agent.

Dozier to NYY for catcher Gary Sanchez, et al? 

 

At the very least, I'd make a couple phone calls.....

[Danchat]

I don't get why Dozier is in the trade talk. He's going to be in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal - I know TR doesn't deal players when they're still early in their contracts.

 

I also know that there's no way this team trusts Polanco to take over at 2B. They'd find a bottom-rung veteran 2B to play there for who knows how long until Polanco can shred AAA, and not to mention learn how to play 2B.

 

Also, I recently got a Dozier jersey for my birthday, so they better not trade him.

 

 

[stringer bell]

Or you get 2nd half Dozier for the full season . . . .  .210/.280/.359 (.639)  Only 9HR

 

Which I guess still projects to about 18 HRs.  But if I had my way I would take 10HR guy that can get on base at a clip better that .280.

To me, this is pretty much cherry-picking at it's worst. Dozier has more than three full seasons in the majors and he had a bad stretch of 70 games. He was a near All-Star for 2014 and a deserving All-Star for the first 90 games of the just-completed season. Dozier has enough of a body of work to suggest that those 70 games are the outlier especially since his overall game had continually improved for over two years. I suspect some combination of fatigue, injury and pennant pressure came into play in producing a dismal second half.

[Thrylos]

 

Probably not the best idea, perhaps one of the two. Both players are coming off second half performances that were disappointing, particularly Dozier, so trading them now would be selling low in terms of on-field performance. Another factor would be the loss of power that their combined 50 homers last year would represent. The prospective replacement for Plouffe would figure to hit as many bombs as Trevor (I'm thinking Vargas/Arcia, Sano is in the lineup somewhere), but there would be a loss of power in replacing Dozier. Add in a projected outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Mauer at first and the team will be challenging KC for the fewest HRs in the AL.

 

Well... between Dozier (.307), Plouffe (.307), Rosario (.289), Hunter (God forbid they re-sign him.293), Suzuki (.296), Escobar (.309)  getting on base is a big problem.   I'd take a single, two walks and a double over a solo HR any time of the day...

 

They need high OBP guys as well.  I think that Sano, Arcia, and Vargas would be fine with power.  I expect Hicks and Rosario each to get to 20 or so as well in a full season.  Sano was on pace for 40.  Need OBP

 

Re: Dozier:  He was league average bat: 101 OPS+     I'd give Escobar a try at second with Polanco at SS.  Polanco will likely hit better than 101 OPS+

 

 

[stringer bell]

I agree that the Twins need more OBP guys. In 2014, Dozier had a .345 OBP, so I think he can be a suitable OBP guy.

[DJSim22]

For the million and a first time, trade Plouffe for a catcher.

 

Keep Dozier, but move him down the line up where he offers more protection and drives in a handful more runs.

[Rosterman]

Dozier is set for salary, so if a team needs a second bseman, he would be enticing. The problem with Plouffe is that teams KNOW the Twins may need to amove him, he has an expensive arbitration year on the horizon, and you have to ask IS he worth signing long-term. Now if the Twins sign Plouffe to a three-year deal, and if that deal is appealing to another team, then the Twins are in the driver's seat. Besides the above two, Kyle Gibson is a very movable player, too, from an area of strength (starting pitching) since the big contracts are not going anywheres.

 

 

 

[ashbury]

Polanco will likely hit better than 101 OPS+

Anything's possible, and eventually I think he will, but Polanco's OPS at double-A in 2015 was only .739.

 

The AL average OPS was .730, so don't you think jumping him two levels next year might suppress his numbers just a little (or even a lot), to well below league average?

[USAFChief]

 

Anything's possible, and eventually I think he will, but Polanco's OPS at double-A in 2015 was only .739.

 

The AL average OPS was .730, so don't you think jumping him two levels next year might suppress his numbers just a little (or even a lot), to well below league average?

No chance.  Polanco has a .950 MLB OPS.