Trade Dozier, Plouffe, now

[TheLeviathan]

 

this whole thing confuses me. It's insurance against an unknown, a couple years in the minors doesn't prove anything that they should "know" already. Also, trusting Molitor and his assessment of guys, does the name Danny Santana ring a bell? He was 100% wrong about him last year.

The reason it is insurance is because you don't know with certainty at all about Sano's glove.

 

So a couple years in the minors is less relevant to fielding ability than pre-game drills and spring training?  Help me make sense out of that one.  Please.

 

If you're going to handcuff yourself and moves that make sense because of certainty - we are in a helluva pile of trouble upgrading this club.

[TheLeviathan]

 

that's a fair belief, I just don't think they grow much at 3B in game, but I could be 100% wrong on that.

 

Plouffe sure seemed to grow with the position just fine.  Hell, the best answer to this whole "We shouldn't turn it over to someone who hasn't proven themselves" crowd is one name: Trevor Plouffe.

 

Look, I don't feel the need to deal him, but I damn sure feel the need to shop him.  His contract, age, and Sano's presence make it a very prudent idea.  If no sufficient return can be found, Sano should still be getting the majority of 3B reps so he can grow at the position.  

[kab21]

I wish people would stop trying to make the team worse.  It is unlikely that Polanco is ever as good as Dozier and certainly not next year.  There is a 1% chance that Rosario is moving back to 2B and that is only if Plan A, Plan B and Plan C failed miserably.

 

Trading Plouffe can happen but it is quite unnecessary and sets the team up for depth issues at 3B with a 3B that may or may not be able to field the position and a question mark at DH although I like Vargas.  The focus in the trade better be getting back some really good talent instead of this so called unblocking of Sano.  He is a MLB'er for his bat and his bat will 100% for sure be in the lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think you can find a quote from me saying don't shop him.....

 

I don't think they KNOW anything at this point, they probably think some things about Sano and his defense, but I doubt they know anything. And no place did I say handcuff themselves waiting for certainty, I said that insurance is there to protect against uncertainty. No place did I say don't trade him because of uncertainty. Indeed, I've typed on this site over and over that if you wait to see which prospects are good, you can't trade any of them, because you need to keep the good ones and the other ones offer no value......

[bluechipper]

 

 

1. First, it's a strawman that if Sano isn't playing 3B every day then Plouffe must be playing 3B every day. Playing time can be shared, and the ratio need not be static.
2. Second, you are right that Sano's missed time due to injury was costly to the process.
3. Third, what "they don't know" isn't some static thing - what they want to see is whether he is making progress, because what we saw on the field from him was sometimes intriguing (stellar looking plays coming in on slow rollers and throwing off-balance) but too often inadequate (matador moves on hot smashes, poor tracking of popups). They know he's young and progress is expected, but adequacy must be demonstrated.
4. Fourth, infield drills and spring games will go a long way toward determining the amount of his playing time once the games count (and of course the drills continue). If he looks reliable in the games he plays in-season, Plouffe will soon be riding the pine (or DHing/1Bing) full time. And then it's time for a trade.
5. Profit!

 

If Plouffe is on the team, I don't see how he isn't starting 80% or more of games at third. Plus, I don't think Sano is going to make some huge improvement over one offseason and spring training, so I would think the Twins have a pretty good idea of what type of fielder he is and can become. Molitor seems to think he can play third and being a DH right now isn't good for his development. I'm guessing game reps are more important than fielding drills.

[jokin]

 

I don't think Nick is nearly as fast as Dee is, and that's where most of Dee's value comes from. Nick's bat will hopefully be better, and as a shortstop, he could be an all star, but second base is such an offensive position now that I don't know if he would be much more than average there.

 

I thought it was pretty well-established that Nick has the chops to definitely stick at SS?

[jokin]

 

It is unlikely that Polanco is ever as good as Dozier and certainly not next year.  

 

 

 

Bold statement, hard to state that with the "certainty" you're utilizing. (I do go along wit h the part about next year, though).

[Thrylos]

People behaving as if Plouffe and Dozier were superstars or something.

 

Facts:

 

Plouffe was 10th out of 15 AL third basemen with at least 350 PAs in wOBA, WRC+ and OPS and 11/15 in OBP.   Not average for the league.  BELOW AVERAGE.   Which means that getting PAs for a better than average 3B (Sano) and a better than average DH (go find him) will improve the team.

 

Dozier was 9th out of 18 AL second basemen with at least 350 PAs in wOBA, WRC+ and OPS and 12/18 in OBP.   AVERAGE or below average.   Which means that getting PAs for a better than average 2B will improve the team.

 

Also if they can bring a better than average Catcher and a better than average Reliever for them two, you are in business.

 

Not sure why people acting like they are superstars...   Dozier's wheels have been on the decline btw, as well...

[Thrylos]

 

 

Bold statement, hard to state that with the "certainty" you're utilizing. (I do go along wit h the part about next year, though).

 

I know.  I'd actually say that I think that Michael would be as good as, or even better than, Dozier,  and Michael is light years behind Polanco...

[bluechipper]

 

I thought it was pretty well-established that Nick has the chops to definitely stick at SS?

That's what I think too. I responded to a post where the poster said that he thought Nick Gordon would have to move to second as he got older.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think you can find a quote from me saying don't shop him.....

I don't think they KNOW anything at this point, they probably think some things about Sano and his defense, but I doubt they know anything. And no place did I say handcuff themselves waiting for certainty, I said that insurance is there to protect against uncertainty. No place did I say don't trade him because of uncertainty. Indeed, I've typed on this site over and over that if you wait to see which prospects are good, you can't trade any of them, because you need to keep the good ones and the other ones offer no value......

 

It's a pretty direct implication that you don't want to move Plouffe because it creates "uncertainty".

 

Any plan this team choose to upgrade the team will create uncertainty, it's simply an impossible thing to protect from.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the very essence of prudent management of resources and selling high.

 

The problem around here is that people say "you should've sold high!" after the guy drops and whines that "you can't deal him, he's good!" when he's at his high point.  You can't have it both ways.  The Plouffe circumstances, because of his age, team control, and available alternatives on the roster, make for an ideal "sell now" time.  If you wait, chances are pretty decent you'll regret it.

[Shaitan]

Has Polanco played anything besides SS in the minors?

[jokin]

 

It's a pretty direct implication that you don't want to move Plouffe because it creates "uncertainty".

 

Any plan this team choose to upgrade the team will create uncertainty, it's simply an impossible thing to protect from.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the very essence of prudent management of resources and selling high.

 

The problem around here is that people say "you should've sold high!" after the guy drops and whines that "you can't deal him, he's good!" when he's at his high point.  You can't have it both ways.  The Plouffe circumstances, because of his age, team control, and available alternatives on the roster, make for an ideal "sell now" time.  If you wait, chances are pretty decent you'll regret it.

 

Pretty good summation.  I'm at a loss how anyone can think otherwise this offseason.

[ashbury]

Has Polanco played anything besides SS in the minors?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=polanc001jor

 

In the minors:

 

SS 339 games 2898 innings

2B 136 games 1124 innings

[Shaitan]

That's enough for me, thanks. I hear a lot of talk about "projection" but rarely if he'd actually done it.

[kab21]

 

Bold statement, hard to state that with the "certainty" you're utilizing. (I do go along wit h the part about next year, though).

Dozier has settled into a .240/.320/.420/.740 MLB hitter with good defense.  This is a really good player.

 

Expecting Polanco to do that is very optimistic.  I like Polanco as a prospect but I don't like his upside as a hitter.  His power numbers have dropped every year and he probably ends up being a 5HR/year hitter that doesn't walk much.  The good news is that he makes a lot of contact so he should have a high average to make up for that but it will be hard to have an OPS much over .700 with that profile.

 

Here is a comp for Polanco - Alexi Casilla.  Polanco hit for a little more power and Casilla hit for more contact but Casilla should have been a solid player.  Polanco should become the player that Casilla should have been if he hadn't thought he was a power hitter and if he can make routine plays.

 

Now this should be interesting...

[mudcat14]

Sano will be at 3B everyday next year.  Book it.  Plouffe will not be an $8mil utility man.  Also, would anyone really have a problem with Polanco at 2B, if Dozier would net us Gary Sanchez?  Not me.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the Twins should be shopping either player. Both can help the Twins to a successful season next year.

 

They should listen to the interest of other teams and see if there is a good fit. Trading Dozier for a young catcher might hurt the win total next year but also be an important piece for several years. They have to consider that deal.

 

The Twins bench and depth was awful last year. If keeping Plouffe allows increased depth and a better bat on the bench it helps the team. A rotation that sits Plouffe or Mauer more often might keep both stronger into September and give better daily bench options.

 

They don't need to trade either player. They do need to improve catching and the relievers. That can be done without trading either.

[DocBauer]

 

I don't see any reason to keep Plouffe as fielding insurance. If this team doesn't think Sano can field they should know that already from their minor league field staff.

Molitor wants to play him there, as far as I'm concerned that's an endorsement of ability. We don't need spring training to decide it. So shop Plouffe and see if you can land something spicy.

 

I agree 100%. Shop him. See if you can get something good that helps the club. Otherwise...keep him. But yes, I do think he's insurance, and valuable insurance. And not due to anything negative about Sano. I believe can play 3B just fine, though not as well as Plouffe at this point, nor would I expect him too. But he would be OK and get better and better at it, just like Plouffe did. Just like Koskie and Gaetti before him.

 

To me, the insurance factor is the lineup in general, as I feel we enter 2016 with the potential for a young and amazing OF, but one with some initial questions that we don't have the answers to yet. Will Buxton be ready for day one even if he's not a complete stud yet? (I think yes, but we don't know) Can Hicks hold down RF on a daily basis? Maybe. I hope so. I really do think he's begun to round the corner. What about Arcia? Can he rebound? He could DH or platoon with Hicks in RF maybe. What if the Twins decide to open with Buxton at AAA, now how does the OF stack up?

 

Keeping Plouffe, at least initially, keeps the 3B/1B/DH rotation with Sano and Mauer that we saw last year. It keeps another OK and 20 HR bat in the lineup.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I definitely agree that you don't trade if you don't get good offers, but I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't an offer on the table this offseason for Plouffe that wouldn't upgrade the starting 9.  You won't get a superstar C, but you should be able to get a good one.  That moves Sano to 3B and puts a competition at DH between Arcia and Vargas, and I have far more faith in one of them running with that job than I do finding a decent FA catcher...

 

As for Dozier, I'd certainly listen, but it would have to be a really good deal.  He's been a pretty good 2B now for 2 years.  I'm fairly certain that whatever in house replacement we have would be a downgrade.  I could see rethinking that next year if someone really breaks out at AAA and continues it in a short term call up, but I'd like to see someone earn that job. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's a pretty direct implication that you don't want to move Plouffe because it creates "uncertainty".

 

Any plan this team choose to upgrade the team will create uncertainty, it's simply an impossible thing to protect from.  Trading Plouffe this offseason is the very essence of prudent management of resources and selling high.

 

The problem around here is that people say "you should've sold high!" after the guy drops and whines that "you can't deal him, he's good!" when he's at his high point.  You can't have it both ways.  The Plouffe circumstances, because of his age, team control, and available alternatives on the roster, make for an ideal "sell now" time.  If you wait, chances are pretty decent you'll regret it.

I also didn't say don't create uncertainty. I said keeping him reduces uncertainty, I don't recall saying the should do that.

 

I think if you can get a catcher, or soon to the majors catcher, you take the chance. But, they need to pick better than they did with Alex Meyer.....

[Physics Guy]

But, they need to pick better than they did with Alex Meyer.....

I actually think Meyer has the potential to still pan out, albeit as a shutdown reliever. He has exactly what everybody has been clamoring for, velocity and an out pitch in his slider.

[jimmer]

 

People behaving as if Plouffe and Dozier were superstars or something.

 

Facts:

 

Plouffe was 10th out of 15 AL third basemen with at least 350 PAs in wOBA, WRC+ and OPS and 11/15 in OBP.   Not average for the league.  BELOW AVERAGE.   Which means that getting PAs for a better than average 3B (Sano) and a better than average DH (go find him) will improve the team.

 

Dozier was 9th out of 18 AL second basemen with at least 350 PAs in wOBA, WRC+ and OPS and 12/18 in OBP.   AVERAGE or below average.   Which means that getting PAs for a better than average 2B will improve the team.

 

Also if they can bring a better than average Catcher and a better than average Reliever for them two, you are in business.

 

Not sure why people acting like they are superstars...   Dozier's wheels have been on the decline btw, as well...

Does only offense count, or can we look at other things a player contributes to the team?  Dozier was 6th in the majors for WAR for qualifying MLB 2Bs. If we use 350 PAs he was 7th out of 39 MLB 2Bs (5th out of 18 in AL). Yeah, he's a very good overall player. 

[olivia11]

Yes, trade Plouffe.  Trading Plouffe can be the beginning to fixing the problems with the Twins bullpen.   

 

In my mind, here are 4 moves I think the Twins should make this offseason: 

1. Trade Plouffe for a solid SU reliever, a young RP pitcher with high upside, and a B or C level prospect.  SU reliever fills either the 7th or 8th inning role complimenting Jepsen and Perkins, young RP pitcher will eventually be a above average or elite set-up man, prospect is a coin flip.

 

2.  Sign a free agent left-handed relief pitcher.  With this move, our bullpen could be: Perkins, Jepsen, (SU acquired in Plouffe trade), (2nd RP acquired in Plouffe trade), (free agent LHP), and a combo of Casey Fein, Michael Tonkin, and Ryan Pressly.  That looks much improved to me.

 

3. Trade prospects for an elite catching prospect currently at the AA or AAA level.  Maybe Willson Contreras (since the Cubs already have a logjam at the catching position with Montero and Schwarber) or Austin Barnes (since the Dodgers also have no room for him behind Yasmani Grandal).  I think a package starting with Kohl Stewart, Jorge Polanco, or maybe even...and I'm a little hesitant about this but it would likely take a top 100 prospect... Tyler Jay, could work.  We could also send off someone like Tommy Milone or Eduardo Nunez (Milone getting back more) and get back a reliever and a B level prospect. 

 

4. Sign a LH free agent catcher to spell Suzuki to a 1 or 2 year deal.  Suzuki playing closer to 80 games than 130 will almost undoubtedly increase his production..  Maybe AJ Pierzynski, Brayan Pena (switch hitting), or Jarrod Saltalamacchia (switch hitting).   This will hopefully be a cheaper, more realistic (can't see the Twins signing Weiters) option for catcher this year.  Idea is that the catching prospect acquired in move 3 will be ready to help in 2016 or by 2017. 

[kab21]

Why not just sign a solid setup RP'er instead of trading Plouffe?