Expectations for Terry Ryan Moving Forward

[Hrbowski]

 

That's true. Hope we see September Santana over August Santana, and Hughes needs an even year bounce back.

I certainly agree that there needs to be ace bullpen types added to the team. I was also thinking big and throw our hat in the ring for the Jason Heyward sweepstakes this offseason. We could use a big time bat in the middle of the order to surround Sano, Mauer, and Dozier.

I don't think that Heyward is a big time bat.

[Blackjack]

My wild guess is that TR will stick around three more years. I'm thinking that after four down years, and a year (2015) where they are a little ahead of schedule, that he'd want to reap a few rewards, a few playoff series, hopefully a World Series. At the end of Oct he'll be 62, three more years, franchise is in good shape, time to go enjoy life. Just my guess.

 

As far as off season moves, I don’t expect much this year, he’ll let the young talent mature.  Maybe a Plouffe trade and that’s it.

[Brandon]

I think TR has done an excellent job of positioning this team to contend for several years to come. Very few of his moves fail. Most succeed. If you write off his first 7 years as gm when he had real budget issues then look at his record it's much better. Moving into the offsets on we don't have that much to do. Resign Hunter, maybe Cotta and Boyer, find one more reliever, find a catcher, and someone who can get on base. TR will step aside when he feels like it and not sooner. Nor should he. There isn't anyone one else I would rather see as gm.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Short term, Ryan needs to address the glut of corner infielder DH types.

 

I don't know if guys like Josmil Pinto and Alex Meyer were never more than AAAA types or if we're just not able to get the best from them. I do believe it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy to say things like "we stuck him in AAA all year and he didn't produce, so I guess we will give him another year of AAA." Not everyone will respond positively to that sort of program.

 

We already know Arcia can hit MLB pitching and we've seen guys like Valencia and Colabello leave the Twins and have varying degrees of success in platoon type roles.

[HitInAPinch]

Twins Insider blog:  http://www.startribune.com/dozier-to-have-mri-ryan-sees-lots-of-areas-to-upgrade/330909051/

 

"With the season finished, Ryan now heads into an off-season that he hinted might be busier than fans expect. The Twins may have narrowly missed making the playoffs, he said, “but we’ve got a lot of areas we’d like to upgrade.”

    There’s not one specific position the Twins will target like they did the past two winters, when they made starting pitching a priority, the GM said. But he’s not satisfied with merely contending for a playoff spot, Ryan said, nor is he willing to simply wait for young prospects to develop."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sounds good to me.

 

There needs to be some trades made and we need Ryan's very good scouting eye for that.

[notoriousgod71]

He has hinted that we'd be busier than you'd expect virtually every offseason.

[Thrylos]

 

Twins Insider blog:  http://www.startribune.com/dozier-to-have-mri-ryan-sees-lots-of-areas-to-upgrade/330909051/

 

"With the season finished, Ryan now heads into an off-season that he hinted might be busier than fans expect. The Twins may have narrowly missed making the playoffs, he said, “but we’ve got a lot of areas we’d like to upgrade.”

    There’s not one specific position the Twins will target like they did the past two winters, when they made starting pitching a priority, the GM said. But he’s not satisfied with merely contending for a playoff spot, Ryan said, nor is he willing to simply wait for young prospects to develop."

 

People should learn not to believe much of what Ryan says.  Here is an interview of Ryan by Mr Warne (Podcast - 30 minutes, but good stuff) in which he says that the Twins do not need to do much this off-season.  One of the two statements is a lie (or maybe he changed his mind, but for sure pretty contradictory.)

 

The Tigers, a team that cares about winning, fired a better GM for less of a cause.  Ryan needs to go.  Yesterday.

 

[blairpaul715]

 

The window seems right and the time to show we're serious is this offseason.  We need at least one, if not several, aggressive moves this offseason.

If you are saying allin before the season, I am not sure I am ready to say that.......but as Dave noted what Texas did, if we are in the hunt come trading deadline, finding someone or something similar to the Hamels situation would be ideal to me.......basically be ready to go all in if the team looks like it is taking a step forward from this yr.......i am not completely convinced that we might not take a step back next yr before taking off in 2017.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If you are saying allin before the season, I am not sure I am ready to say that.......but as Dave noted what Texas did, if we are in the hunt come trading deadline, finding someone or something similar to the Hamels situation would be ideal to me.......basically be ready to go all in if the team looks like it is taking a step forward from this yr.......i am not completely convinced that we might not take a step back next yr before taking off in 2017.

 

Not all-in, just aggressive.  Show the team that the front office believes in them.  

[Kwak]

 

People should learn not to believe much of what Ryan says.  Here is an interview of Ryan by Mr Warne (Podcast - 30 minutes, but good stuff) in which he says that the Twins do not need to do much this off-season.  One of the two statements is a lie (or maybe he changed his mind, but for sure pretty contradictory.)

 

The Tigers, a team that cares about winning, fired a better GM for less of a cause.  Ryan needs to go.  Yesterday.

It was  the last year of Dombrowski's contract.  Since he signed shortly later with Toronto it is likely that Toronto had to inform Detroit (permission?) that they would approach Dombrowski.  I concluded that he was leaving Detroit in any case.  But that is only my assumption.

[SwainZag]

 

It was  the last year of Dombrowski's contract.  Since he signed shortly later with Toronto it is likely that Toronto had to inform Detroit (permission?) that they would approach Dombrowski.  I concluded that he was leaving Detroit in any case.  But that is only my assumption.

 

We also have know prior knowledge what went on behind the scenes.  He could have thought the team should buy and make a run at the WC and re-sign Price and the rest of the front office thought otherwise. Anything could have happened.  Assuming they fired him because they had a down year seems pretty short sighted IMO.

 

Just to correct you, he is with Boston now, not Toronto.

[HitInAPinch]

 

People should learn not to believe much of what Ryan says.  Here is an interview of Ryan by Mr Warne (Podcast - 30 minutes, but good stuff) in which he says that the Twins do not need to do much this off-season.  One of the two statements is a lie (or maybe he changed his mind, but for sure pretty contradictory.)

 

The Tigers, a team that cares about winning, fired a better GM for less of a cause.  Ryan needs to go.  Yesterday.

Umm, I listened to the entire podcast.  Ryan did NOT say that.  He said they're in decent shape, but definitely need more depth and numbers in the pitching staff.  Specifically starting pitching.  Here he referenced the Minors for help.

 

The last thing:  Busy off-season, Ryan said that's typical when you have all kinds of holes.  "We don't have all kinds of wholes to fill.  We've got issues, there's no question and we will be active."

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

Umm, I listened to the entire podcast.  Ryan did NOT say that.  He said they're in decent shape, but definitely need more depth and numbers in the pitching staff.  Specifically starting pitching.  Here he referenced the Minors for help.

 

The last thing:  Busy off-season, Ryan said that's typical when you have all kinds of holes.  "We don't have all kinds of wholes to fill.  We've got issues, there's no question and we will be active."

This runs afoul of the common suggestions on several threads to trade (in order) Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. I'm going to keep saying it, there appear to me to be only eight guys who look ready to take regular turns in the rotation. That really isn't enough.

[howieramone2]

 

This runs afoul of the common suggestions on several threads to trade (in order) Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. I'm going to keep saying it, there appear to me to be only eight guys who look ready to take regular turns in the rotation. That really isn't enough.

I agree with you, I would be uncomfortable with less than 8. I just don't see anyone after Berrios for at least 2 years. I think TR is going to trade Nolasco and find someone to slot ahead of Santana. I also think it's going to be a difficult off-season for fans of shiny new things. It wouldn't surprise me if we opened up our farm system and dealt Polanco and/or Berrios.

[nicksaviking]

 

This runs afoul of the common suggestions on several threads to trade (in order) Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. I'm going to keep saying it, there appear to me to be only eight guys who look ready to take regular turns in the rotation. That really isn't enough.

 

8 were enough in 2015, though it was an oddly healthy year for the Twins rotation.

 

I agree, you need depth.  However the Twins have put themselves in a position where the guys who should be the fall back depth due to their lesser (fading) abilities and upside, are unfortunately at the front of the line due to their contracts.

[DaveW]

This runs afoul of the common suggestions on several threads to trade (in order) Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. I'm going to keep saying it, there appear to me to be only eight guys who look ready to take regular turns in the rotation. That really isn't enough.

You can always sign some AAAA guys to be your 7th/8th/9th starters. You don't need guys pulling in solid money like Milone, Nolasco etc as your 7th/8th starters.

[Mike Sixel]

Houston and the Cubs are in the playoffs, I expect nothing less out of the Twins next year. They have the prospects, and they have the money. I don't think Ryan is the guy to trade from the future for the present, so I have my doubts, but we'll see.

 

I remember a lot of people here saying that Houston was way behind the Twins....it would appear that it isn't about budget, but about committing to a rebuild, and then going in when you have the chance. Mostly, the Twins have chosen a middle path. I hope to see a commitment this off season.

[howieramone2]

 

8 were enough in 2015, though it was an oddly healthy year for the Twins rotation.

 

I agree, you need depth.  However the Twins have put themselves in a position where the guys who should be the fall back depth due to their lesser (fading) abilities and upside, are unfortunately at the front of the line due to their contracts.

The front of the line is Santana, Hughes, and Gibson and all are there due to their ability. My guess is Duffey will be the #5, and the big move this off-season joins this group. Add a can't miss veteran power reliever and a catcher to help control the running game, and our favorite team will be off in pursuit of a ring.

[awinter]

 

-4 out of 4 years with winning records- There is absolutely no reason why a team with $125 million payroll capabilities and a farm system this stacked should even come close to having a losing season the next 4 years.

I agree that the stacked farm system should be able to help our beloved squad have success in the next 4 to 6 years. Before I get to my point, I would like to preface it with this: I firmly believe the best way to position an MLB team for success is by developing players in the farm system and winning with them while they are cheap. Once a player.

 

Now my point: I don't think we can take any comfort in our $125M payroll capabilities. Our 2015 opening day payroll was $102M and was ranked 21st in the majors (full disclosure: if payroll was $125M, that's good enough for 11th). That's bottom third of MLB and I think the Twins will stay in the bottom third and could slide further down. Here's why:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-send-shock-waves-through-local-tv-landscape/

 

If you don't feel like reading the whole thing, the Twins are making an estimated $29M/year on their TV deal which began in 2011. I count 10 teams that have less lucrative deals, but 6 of these deals expire in the next few years. In the past few years we've seen teams signing much more lucrative deals so I would expect some of these 6 to surpass the Twins. Although we don't know the exact terms of the FSN deal, I would expect the Twins would be locked in between 15-30 years, that's at least through 2026. What this means- as other teams start making more, they are able to spend more and the Twins will have a hard time competing in the free agent market. They're not destined for failure because of this, but they will continue to be restricted by their inability to compete for free agents and will have to win with a core of young pre-arbitration players.

 

That said, I'm excited to have a core of talented young players for the next 6 years! Time for the window to open.

 

[Willihammer]

The Twins do have a mediocre TV deal but they should see a nice boost in season ticket sales over the winter. Attendance trails W-L record by a year. You would think payroll will go up just from that.

[Kwak]

 

Houston and the Cubs are in the playoffs, I expect nothing less out of the Twins next year. They have the prospects, and they have the money. I don't think Ryan is the guy to trade from the future for the present, so I have my doubts, but we'll see.

I remember a lot of people here saying that Houston was way behind the Twins....it would appear that it isn't about budget, but about committing to a rebuild, and then going in when you have the chance. Mostly, the Twins have chosen a middle path. I hope to see a commitment this off season.

Or, perhaps the people here underestimated the Houston players (and overestimated the Twins players?). TD posters are hardly unbiased and dispassionate in their evaluation of baseball talent.  As far as a middle path, most TD posters (you too?) have advocated that the Twins should open their checkbook and buy some talent--after all that was the raison etre` for Target Field (OK, and sign Joe Mauer to a long-term contract).  I conclude that this "middle road" as you term, was actually demanded (and correct) as a rebuild policy. POLICY differs from PRACTICE.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Although we don't know the exact terms of the FSN deal, I would expect the Twins would be locked in between 15-30 years, that's at least through 2026. 

Their previous deal with FSN was 8 years and didn't even have exclusivity (~25 over the air games yearly).  Why would we expect the current deal, exclusive to FSN, to be twice as long, at minimum, for a static yearly amount with no out clause?  FSN didn't have THAT much leverage, where else were they going to find 150+ major sports events to broadcast every summer?

 

15 years would be the length of many of the multi-billion dollar deals, without the money benefit.  30 years would be downright insane.

[stringer bell]

 

You can always sign some AAAA guys to be your 7th/8th/9th starters. You don't need guys pulling in solid money like Milone, Nolasco etc as your 7th/8th starters.

But Milone wasn't a 7th or 8th best starter.  I think overall he was second best.  He may have the seventh or eighth best upside, but his performance is good enough to be in the rotation of almost every team. In a rose-colored world where every player hits that upside he wouldn't have a place, but that isn't going to happen.

 

If I'm the GM of a team that expects to contend I don't want PJ Walters, Scott Diamond and Andrew Albers starting games in August because I saved a couple million by trading a quality starter for pennies on the dollar.

[stringer bell]

 

Or, perhaps the people here underestimated the Houston players (and overestimated the Twins players?). TD posters are hardly unbiased and dispassionate in their evaluation of baseball talent.  As far as a middle path, most TD posters (you too?) have advocated that the Twins should open their checkbook and buy some talent--after all that was the raison etre` for Target Field (OK, and sign Joe Mauer to a long-term contract).  I conclude that this "middle road" as you term, was actually demanded (and correct) as a rebuild policy. POLICY differs from PRACTICE.

What the Twins have done is not sold off everyone. The Mauer contract precluded him being traded. Ryan signed relatively low-budget guys like Doumit and Willingham to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready to step up. More recently middle money was spent on spec for Pelfrey and Suzuki and decent-to-big money spent on Hughes, Nolasco and ESantana. If I'm finding fault, I would think that maybe the Twins could have spent bigger on higher-quality arms. The collection of Pelfrey, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana isn't awe-inspiring especially compared to front line starting pitchers on other teams.

[DaveW]

Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Hughes, May are all guys I want pitching ahead of Milone. So he is our 7th/8th starter IMO and you don't need to pay those guys multiple millions of dollars for a couple potential starts if guys get hurt. The difference between Diamond etc starting a couple games and Milone starting a couple isn't worth 4-5 million. Better off spending that money on a bullpen arm, bench bat or catcher and trade Milone for something back

[sane]

 

"You don't need guys pulling in solid money like Milone, Nolasco etc as your 7th/8th starters"

 

Nolasco is pulling in YOUR solid money WHEREVER HE PITCHES! (or bags groceries)

You may as well use him, if you can't lose him.

[Willihammer]

I'm not sure I'd trust Hughes or Gibson any more than  Milone. Perhaps its Gibson's turn to be the 28 year old depth guy as he has an option year left.

 

Santana

Duffey

May

Berrios

Milone

[Mike Sixel]

No way you send down Gibson if you don't go out and get 2-3 more starters. Not happening.

[nicksaviking]

 

The front of the line is Santana, Hughes, and Gibson and all are there due to their ability. My guess is Duffey will be the #5, and the big move this off-season joins this group. Add a can't miss veteran power reliever and a catcher to help control the running game, and our favorite team will be off in pursuit of a ring.

 

Those guys likely will be the front line, there's not a lot of upside there though.  Those guys should be towards the back, think about running those guys up against the rotations of the other playoff teams.  Berrios, May and Duffey may have enough potential to make some noise, yet because of the contracts, it is they who find themselves on the periphery of the rotation.