Expectations for Terry Ryan Moving Forward

[rghrbek]

Ryan said in today's Pioneer press, that Ploufe will play third and Joe will play first.   Sano will play the field more.  So what are we to gather about that?   He has also stated if that Torii wants to be back he will be back as well....

 

So how does Sano get playing time in the field?   It should be interesting.

 

Just because Terry said it's going to be a busy off season does not mean that much.   Bringing in a couple of journey men for the bullpen, on the cheap, and resigning Duensing/Boyer does not sound like new improved options.   However, Terry is pretty good at spin and will qualify this as a busy off season.

 

I don't expect any moves to the rotation, and predict May will stay in the bullpen (when I think he should be given the chance to start).

 

That's how I feel.   I hope Trader Terry proves me wrong.

[TheLeviathan]

Not trading Plouffe this offseason could be a serious mistake.  I hope they let it be known that he's available and consider any return that can make the team better in the long run.  Plouffe's clock is ticking here any way you shake it.

[DaveW]

 

Not trading Plouffe this offseason could be a serious mistake.  I hope they let it be known that he's available and consider any return that can make the team better in the long run.  Plouffe's clock is ticking here any way you shake it.

Ditto with "If Torii wants to be back, he will be back"

That's how you end up negotiating against yourself and end up overpaying by 6-7 million.

 

It's getting more and more clear that Ryan HATES change and always defaults to bringing in the "known" then the "unknown", this is what caused them to bring back Bartlett, Kubel and Guerrier on terrible deals. This is what prevents him from trading "known" Plouffe and what prevented him from calling up Berrios.

[Halsey Hall]

Ploof has got to go, as I often said. If any GM's out there think as much of Poof as some of our TD'ers, we'll get some decent return and be better off for it.

[nicksaviking]

 

Ryan said in today's Pioneer press, that Ploufe will play third and Joe will play first.   Sano will play the field more.  So what are we to gather about that?   He has also stated if that Torii wants to be back he will be back as well....

 

So how does Sano get playing time in the field?   It should be interesting.

 

Just because Terry said it's going to be a busy off season does not mean that much.   Bringing in a couple of journey men for the bullpen, on the cheap, and resigning Duensing/Boyer does not sound like new improved options.   However, Terry is pretty good at spin and will qualify this as a busy off season.

 

I don't expect any moves to the rotation, and predict May will stay in the bullpen (when I think he should be given the chance to start).

 

That's how I feel.   I hope Trader Terry proves me wrong.

 

Which article specifically are you talking about because both Ryan and Molitor said Sano is a 3B and too young to be a DH. Ryan said Plouffe was a 3B as well, which is a pretty big indicator that the team will be looking to move him.

 

Also, Ryan already said that May better prepare to be a starter next year.  I'm not sure if there would be one bit of information that comes out the rest of the winter that would put me more at ease than hearing that.  Obviously nothing is in stone, but hearing that Ryan considers him as a starter is the absolute best any of us could hope for.

 

The past two off-seasons have seen the Twins sign four starting pitchers and a corner outfielder for much more than they were worth, what makes you think simply signing two middle relievers this year would is all that Ryan will do and that he'd try to sell that as a big change?  I personally want the club to do minimally this off-season and dump more contracts than they take on while giving every and any youngster in the high minors a chance to take the jobs.  I don't think that will happen though, I'd be surprised if there isn't a big free agent or a big trade. 

 

I would like a front office shakeup as I think there are many areas this organization needs to adapt to that they have dragged their feet on, but there has been absolutely nothing Ryan has said since the season has ended that indicates the team isn't going to fix the areas that 90% of Twins fans have been saying needs to be fixed since the July swoon.  I might not agree with him, but Terry Ryan is anything but a liar or conman.

[DaveW]

 

Not trading Plouffe this offseason could be a serious mistake.  I hope they let it be known that he's available and consider any return that can make the team better in the long run.  Plouffe's clock is ticking here any way you shake it.

To add onto this:

This is Dougie M and Morneau all over again. Dougie M, just like Plouffe are nice players who will continue to have solid careers, however both are in the "average" category overall (or at least closer to that). Both have young elite talent behind them (Morneau won an MVP and is one of the best 10 players in club history, Sano has an even HIGHER ceiling)

For Dougie we got Justin Jones in return, we don't need some huge haul for Plouffe. Opening up the spot for Sano is a huge net win in itself.

 

 

[USAFChief]

Which article specifically are you talking about because both Ryan and Molitor said Sano is a 3B and too young to be a DH. Ryan said Plouffe was a 3B as well, which is a pretty big indicator that the team will be looking to move him.

 

Also, Ryan already said that May better prepare to be a starter next year.  I'm not sure if there would be one bit of information that comes out the rest of the winter that would put me more at ease than hearing that.  Obviously nothing is in stone, but hearing that Ryan considers him as a starter is the absolute best any of us could hope for.

 

The past two off-seasons have seen the Twins sign four starting pitchers and a corner outfielder for much more than they were worth, what makes you think simply signing two middle relievers this year would is all that Ryan will do and that he'd try to sell that as a big change?  I personally want the club to do minimally this off-season and dump more contracts than they take on while giving every and any youngster in the high minors a chance to take the jobs.  I don't think that will happen though, I'd be surprised if there isn't a big free agent or a big trade. 

 

I would like a front office shakeup as I think there are many areas this organization needs to adapt to that they have dragged their feet on, but there has been absolutely nothing Ryan has said since the season has ended that indicates the team isn't going to fix the areas that 90% of Twins fans have been saying needs to be fixed since the July swoon.  I might not agree with him, but Terry Ryan is anything but a liar or conman.

I agree with much of his, but think May does the team the most good in the bullpen.

[Willihammer]

 

To add onto this:

This is Dougie M and Morneau all over again. Dougie M, just like Plouffe are nice players who will continue to have solid careers, however both are in the "average" category overall (or at least closer to that). Both have young elite talent behind them (Morneau won an MVP and is one of the best 10 players in club history, Sano has an even HIGHER ceiling)

For Dougie we got Justin Jones in return, we don't need some huge haul for Plouffe. Opening up the spot for Sano is a huge net win in itself.

Interesting comp. However if the best offer for Plouffe is a single 2nd round pick in A ball, I hope the Twins would pass.

[Kwak]

 

Ryan said in today's Pioneer press, that Ploufe will play third and Joe will play first.   Sano will play the field more.  So what are we to gather about that?   He has also stated if that Torii wants to be back he will be back as well....

 

So how does Sano get playing time in the field?   It should be interesting.

 

Just because Terry said it's going to be a busy off season does not mean that much.   Bringing in a couple of journey men for the bullpen, on the cheap, and resigning Duensing/Boyer does not sound like new improved options.   However, Terry is pretty good at spin and will qualify this as a busy off season.

 

I don't expect any moves to the rotation, and predict May will stay in the bullpen (when I think he should be given the chance to start).

 

That's how I feel.   I hope Trader Terry proves me wrong.

The Strib had a similar article today:  phil.miller@startribune.com where Ryan was quoted "Trevor Plouffe won't be moved off third base, and Joe Mauer is the team's first baseman".  If "moved" means "a position change within the Twins" or "traded" is unclear.  My interpretation from the article (which includes the quote "I would like to [determine his future] this winter, so he can prepare for it.") is that Sano would be rotated and also would play the outfield.

 

Another quote from the article "Trevor May will have an answer before training camp opens in February about whether he will remain a reliever or return to the starting rotation...".  Ergo, I believe he stays in the bullpen or gets traded.

 

[DaveW]

 

Interesting comp. However if the best offer for Plouffe is a single 2nd round pick in A ball, I hope the Twins would pass.

FWIW Jones was the number 56 prospect in baseball at the time. I would be pretty pleased with a top 75 prospect for Plouffe, especially if it were a pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

If they do plan on Sano playing the OF......why the didn't he do that in the minors at all?

 

If Torii, Joe, Miguel and Trevor are all back, it is hard to see how they improve the offense, other than Hicks and Buxton and Rosario being better and they all continue their luck from this year in terms of sequencing.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW Jones was the number 56 prospect in baseball at the time. I would be pretty pleased with a top 75 prospect for Plouffe, especially if it were a pitcher.

If you think Sano can play 3B, getting a top 50 prospect for Plouffe seems fair, if not ideal for next year......

[jokin]

 

 

Does anyone really want the bulky Sano playing third base where he is more likely to sustain injury than playing first base. Sano should be converted to first base that is the spot he should play.

 

Just. No.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

One of the articles also mentioned that the entire field staff would return. We just completed 3 consecutive seasons which were the highest strikeout totals in Twins history. Our team batting average ranked as one of the lowest in baseball. If coaches make a difference why bring Brunanski back.

[Platoon]

I really would like to think Plouffe will be traded, catching will be upgraded, Hunter will not be back, and we will find a left handed hitting DH to balance the lineup. That's what I would hope for. ( I am not delusional enough to hope for a #1 SP) But reality and past history make this seem wishful thinking. There is nothing, not one thing in Ryan's history that makes me believe anything aggressive or innovative will happen.

[Vanimal46]

In order for our collective wish list to become reality, it will require TR to make aggressive and risky decisions. If TR had any pressure from the people that signs his pay check, we could see it happen! I just don't have faith he has that pressure to change the status quo....

[Linus]

My expectations are much more focused on what our young players do going forward. Strong steps forward from them will be more important than any decision TR makes this winter.

[TheLeviathan]

 

My expectations are much more focused on what our young players do going forward. Strong steps forward from them will be more important than any decision TR makes this winter.

 

You may make those steps easier if you make some good moves this winter.  

 

Putting it all on the plate of the young guys is a good way to stunt that progress.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If you think Sano can play 3B, getting a top 50 prospect for Plouffe seems fair, if not ideal for next year......

 

Not ideal, but it may allow some willingness to move current prospects.

 

It's hard to predict what a Plouffe trade would look like, but it's fairly easy to see why moving him now would be ideal.

[jimmer]

I don't expect Ryan to do much of anything. I think he'll figure a year of Ervin Santana plus the rookies from this year improving (along with a couple more graduating in 2016) will be enough.

[awinter]

 

Their previous deal with FSN was 8 years and didn't even have exclusivity (~25 over the air games yearly).  Why would we expect the current deal, exclusive to FSN, to be twice as long, at minimum, for a static yearly amount with no out clause?  FSN didn't have THAT much leverage, where else were they going to find 150+ major sports events to broadcast every summer?

 

15 years would be the length of many of the multi-billion dollar deals, without the money benefit.  30 years would be downright insane.

Good to know, spycake. I made some assumptions there when I grew tired of doing research.

 

So if the Twins aren't locked in, where could they rank among MLB in TV revenue? I would still bet on them being in the bottom third every year.

[DaveW]

 

Not ideal, but it may allow some willingness to move current prospects.

 

It's hard to predict what a Plouffe trade would look like, but it's fairly easy to see why moving him now would be ideal.

A top 50 prospect would be ideal IMO much rather have a high upside minor leaguer then an average major leaguer that they could potentially acquire. (i.e I would rather have Kepler then Plouffe at this stage for the next several seasons)

[TheLeviathan]

 

A top 50 prospect would be ideal IMO much rather have a high upside minor leaguer then an average major leaguer that they could potentially acquire. (i.e I would rather have Kepler then Plouffe at this stage for the next several seasons)

 

A guy like Kepler changes that, just because the ETA on arrival is so much sooner.  That would be a great move, but I'm not sure that's what we'd get.  I think your comp earlier of a A/AA player with high upside is more likely.

[Vanimal46]

 

Good to know, spycake. I made some assumptions there when I grew tired of doing research.

 

So if the Twins aren't locked in, where could they rank among MLB in TV revenue? I would still bet on them being in the bottom third every year.

 

I found this article, granted a little dated, but shows the local TV revenues for each team. The Twins are basically middle of the pack. Some teams that surprised me, Pittsburgh has the lowest local TV revenue, Toronto that we all think are big market has a revenue similar to MN, and the Mariners are RAKING in the cash....

 

Also, don't forget with MLB's national TV deal with FOX, every team receives another $25 million. 

 

Source: https://upperdeckchatter.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/mlb-teams-capitalize-on-local-television-rights/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Toronto that we all think are big market has a revenue similar to MN

The same company owns both the Jays and the TV channel, so I'm not sure that rights fee is all that accurate.

[Vanimal46]

 

The same company owns both the Jays and the TV channel, so I'm not sure that rights fee is all that accurate.

 

Most likely. I'm sure they gave themselves a good deal. Those sneaky Canadians.... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So if the Twins aren't locked in, where could they rank among MLB in TV revenue? I would still bet on them being in the bottom third every year.

Probably, but "bottom third" could mean ranking 21st but with an actual dollar amount close to the median and really not that far from ~10th place or so, slotting just after the billion-dollar mega-deals.

 

Using Vanimal's newer link above, Cleveland was the median team in average annual rights fee at $40 million.  Assuming we're not signing bad deals, there's really no reason the Twins can't top that if they want to.

 

Another way to look at it, using Forbes' list, we're "bottom third" in total revenue but within 10% of the median and 20% of 9th place.

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#page:1_sort:5_direction:desc_search:

 

In modern MLB, there just isn't that big of a difference between 10th and 20th, or perhaps even 28th (basically, everyone but Oakland and Tampa).  As you say, a $125 payroll would bump us all the way up to 11th in that measure (and coincidentally, it would be about equal to our 2015 opening day payroll plus our Forbes estimated operating income of $21 million...).

 

With the rebuild hopefully moving into the rear view mirror, there's really no reason we can't support that level of payroll now.

[rghrbek]

 

Which article specifically are you talking about because both Ryan and Molitor said Sano is a 3B and too young to be a DH. Ryan said Plouffe was a 3B as well, which is a pretty big indicator that the team will be looking to move him.

 

Also, Ryan already said that May better prepare to be a starter next year.  I'm not sure if there would be one bit of information that comes out the rest of the winter that would put me more at ease than hearing that.  Obviously nothing is in stone, but hearing that Ryan considers him as a starter is the absolute best any of us could hope for.

 

The past two off-seasons have seen the Twins sign four starting pitchers and a corner outfielder for much more than they were worth, what makes you think simply signing two middle relievers this year would is all that Ryan will do and that he'd try to sell that as a big change?  I personally want the club to do minimally this off-season and dump more contracts than they take on while giving every and any youngster in the high minors a chance to take the jobs.  I don't think that will happen though, I'd be surprised if there isn't a big free agent or a big trade. 

 

I would like a front office shakeup as I think there are many areas this organization needs to adapt to that they have dragged their feet on, but there has been absolutely nothing Ryan has said since the season has ended that indicates the team isn't going to fix the areas that 90% of Twins fans have been saying needs to be fixed since the July swoon.  I might not agree with him, but Terry Ryan is anything but a liar or conman.

 

Nick, thanks for your observations.

I think the early statements coming out were that Sano was going to play the field/3B and led some of us to believe that Plouffe would be traded.   However, and thanks to Kwak on the assist, Ryan has been more firm in his comments in the paper, recently, that Plouffe was the 3rd baseman and Joe was the firstbaseman, and that Sano needed to play in the field.   I am simply wondering how that works out for Sano?   I guess we can only speculate at this point.

 

Kwak also pointed out that Terry has in no way made a decision concerning May.   Told him to stretch his arm out but that decision will be made before camp.   As Gleeman points out, and often, most good to great relievers are failed starters.   Significantly more value in a starter than a reliever.  That's why I hope Ryan let's May start.

 

I do not think Ryan is a conman, or a liar.   Do I think he puts a spin on things?   Yes, especially back when he did not have much financial freedom.   I wouldn't consider it far fetched for him to sign a couple of journey man or projects, and retain Duensing/Boyer and claim that significant moves were made to the bullpen.   I am not attacking his character though.   I think lots of GM's do these things.

 

I think we are all hoping that the twins FO see that most of the success they had this year was because of the young kids, and plan to fortify the team accordingly, knowing that some of that young talent will regress.

 

[DocBauer]

Well thought out premise and argument from Dave in which I found myself most agreeing with.

 

Then I reached for a bottle.

 

LOL  I kid...I kid!

 

For the record, I think the tenure of Ryan is difficult to break down as was done here, number of seasons of this and that, etc, and perhaps a bit unfair. Ryan's tenure has covered two very different time-frames for the Twins; metro-dome and then Target Field. Among many factors, simple finances dictated different ways of approaching the building and maintenance of a team.

 

I think it could be argued that in his second tenure, Ryan has had to learn and adapt a bit after taking his time off and coming back to a team that has the ability to operate differently now due to said changes in finance.

 

That being said, I think it is very true to have certain expectations at this time. I don't know that we can really say the re-build and overhaul of the club is complete, but it is definatly in the final stages, as witnessed by the playoff push this season. To me personally, where I hold TR at finger-pointing length is to not be complacent.

 

I don't feel this club is in need of a mega deal. I think what it really needs is the talented youngsters already onboard to continue to improve while adding a couple more soon, i.e. Berrios and Kepler prime examples. But the past couple of seasons, Ryan seemed content to leave the CF spot and bullpen mostly alone, fill in with fodder, and hope/assume he'd have prospects up soon to take over roles.

 

We just can't be that conservative at this time. FA or trade, we need to shore up the catcher spot and the bullpen. And possibly a LH bat off the bench as well. The middle ground, middle of the pack type pitcher and position player is not what this team needs to sign any longer. In fact, we could actually stand to lose a player/contract or two at this point.

[sane]

Most likely. I'm sure they gave themselves a good deal. Those sneaky Canadians....

I am sure that Molson is in financial difficulties, as Canadians just don't drink much beer.