Hughes, Pelfrey and Duffey

[clank2000]

 

 "But another subpar outing could put Pelfrey's rotation spot in jeopardy, as rookie right-hander Tyler Duffey has been pitching well"

 

Doesn't that imply that if Pelfrey has a "par" or better outing his rotation spot is safe?

I read it that way.

[sane]

 

All minor league teams' regular season are over. Kernels are in the MWL playoffs.

I know, but not a great time and place for rehab assignments.

IMO he is more likely to be assigned to the Fort Myers facility.

[howieramone2]

 

 "But another subpar outing could put Pelfrey's rotation spot in jeopardy, as rookie right-hander Tyler Duffey has been pitching well"

 

Doesn't that imply that if Pelfrey has a "par" or better outing his rotation spot is safe?

I disagreed with your post #8 on this thread as written, nothing more, nothing less.

[Squirrel]

Please stay on topic to discuss issues ... these one-line posts that serve nothing but to 'take a dig' at the 'other side' are unproductive.

[nicksaviking]

 

I disagreed with your post #8 on this thread as written, nothing more, nothing less.

 

I've had way more than 8 disagreeable posts probably in this thread alone

[dxpavelka]

 

Thank goodness Sano doesn't have an innings limit ...

No but the reason he didn't come up until July may be similar.  And also may factor into why he's only played 82 innings in the field since his call up.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

No but the reason he didn't come up until July may be similar.  And also may factor into why he's only played 82 innings in the field since his call up.

 

I don't think the Twins have yet figured out the best way to use young arms but there were stuck in a pretty odd situation with Sano, 3B just aren't supposed to have TJ surgery.  I would have liked to see him up earlier, but Plouffe and Hunter were playing pretty well then and his bat was less needed.

 

I do wonder what the team would look like today though had Sano come up early in 2014 and did what he's doing now.  Would Plouffe have been moved last offseason and if so, would it have been for someone to help the 25-man? 

[Major League Ready]

 

Yes, I am suggesting that cutting Berrios' innings and Duffey's innings in the minors to 5 inning starts does NOT hurt their development, and keeps them available in case odds/plans change. Yes, I am suggesting that.

This makes for an interesting discussion, Mike.  I think the greatest influence on how people see this is that some fans absolutely reject the service clock consideration.  Of course, general managers have a very different opinion on service clock. Let’s say any GM was looking at this scenario on July 1.   I think the difference in position is that a GM is going to look at this scenario something like this ….
1.  They start with what is the costs and benefits of minimizing JO Berrios in the event we need him for a stretch run or even the playoffs. 

2. OK – The ultimate benefit is that we get to a playoff series.  I don’t believe any GM is going to put much value in the wildcard game.  A playoff series has much more value in terms of $$, team development, and building the fan base. 

3. Hmmm, the odds of getting to a playoff series is about 5%.  That might be all the GM needs to reject the thought of managing the prospect around this scenario.  Let’s assume they go on.

4. Next, the GM probably consider the likelihood this prospect is going to add wins. 
     a. In July,. It simply did not look like that was something that needed to be considered yet.
     b. Contributing at the ML level immediately is a big IF.  The presumption so

         many made here that he was instantly one of our best pitchers is a real

          stretch.  (ie. Alex Meyer)  There was great insistence here last year that he

          was the best SP in the organization.  There were similar opinions here with

         Nick Burdi.

     c. If the role is a bullpen role you are adding a whole new dimension.

     d. We already have great depth and he is probably behind even Duffey at

         this point so it is not likely he breaks into the rotation immediately.

 

If you want to say, what about after he had a good month in AAA.  Hughes was not hurt yet and there was no room.  Plus, he was arguably still behind Duffey.   I think  the biggest disconnect here between how a fan sees this scenario and a GM is still service time.  It is quite obvious that fans are anxious to see these prospects and formulate arguments supporting getting them here ASAP.   Any GM looks at the scenario above and says no way in hell am I giving up a year of service time for this scenario. 

 

Most fans also don't think about how these things impact long-term roster management and/or perhaps off-season moves.  If Berrios can be brought up as soon as the super 2 date is up, the FO has more flexibility to make some important off-season moves.  They can deal Nolasco and take on something like $4m of annual salary and be 7.5M ahead if they have both Duffey and Berrios as options.  They could set-up this scenario ... Santana / Hughes / May / Gibson / Milone or Duffey .  They could even deal Gibson and have Sanatan / Hughes / May / Milone / Duffey with Berrios up next.  Gibson, Plouffe and Polanco would give us some very good trade pieces to net us the catcher we need to fill our biggest hole.  You add a better catcher to this team, pick-up a solid late inning guy in free agency and this team looks great in 2016.

 

That’s how I would hope a GM was thinking as he contemplated how to manage Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

I absolutely am including service time in my thoughts, but he's a pitcher. They get hurt a lot. They built the stadium to sign guys if they want to. They have not failed to sign a guy they wanted to sign since opening the stadium. I'm saying there is value in the certainty of 2015 vs the super great unknown of 2021/2022. I'd bet on that certainty more than the Twins are doing this year.

 

 

I don't understand how calling him up this year effects your scenarios at all, in that last paragraph. All of that can happen if he's up this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No but the reason he didn't come up until July may be similar.  And also may factor into why he's only played 82 innings in the field since his call up.

I think we'd see a lot more of Sano at third if not for the hamstring injury.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think we'd see a lot more of Sano at third if not for the hamstring injury.

 

Probably, but I think this is about Plouffe as much as anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Probably, but I think this is about Plouffe as much as anything.

Oh, Plouffe definitely plays a role but I think we'd see more shuffling of Plouffe to first, Mauer to DH, and Sano to third if not for the injury. Maybe twice a week or so. I'm sure the Twins want to get a good look at Sano in the field before the end of the season so they have a better idea how to proceed this offseason.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Oh, Plouffe definitely plays a role but I think we'd see more shuffling of Plouffe to first, Mauer to DH, and Sano to third if not for the injury. Maybe twice a week or so. I'm sure the Twins want to get a good look at Sano in the field before the end of the season so they have a better idea how to proceed this offseason.

Right On!  This is what September should be all about for the Twins.  Get the young players up, acclimated, and in the field rotation.  The starting staff is in motion.  The outfield rotation is in motion:  last night, Hunter was DH and Rosario, Hicks and Buxton were on the field.  Yeah, Buxton needs more development time:  he was needed, his only real weapon is speed, **** happens. The injury Sano suffered couldn't have come at a worst time.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Oh, Plouffe definitely plays a role but I think we'd see more shuffling of Plouffe to first, Mauer to DH, and Sano to third if not for the injury. Maybe twice a week or so. I'm sure the Twins want to get a good look at Sano in the field before the end of the season so they have a better idea how to proceed this offseason.

 

Agreed, I know I would (which maybe means they wouldn't......). Maybe there would even be a Vargas sighting if Sano could play 3rd more right now (I know, I'm dreaming).

[nicksaviking]

 

Agreed, I know I would (which maybe means they wouldn't......). Maybe there would even be a Vargas sighting if Sano could play 3rd more right now (I know, I'm dreaming).

 

Good call, the biggest problem with Sano's hammy is not having that flexibility at DH.  I'd like to see more Vargas also.  As it turned out, there wouldn't have been much playing time to add Kepler, Pinto or Arcia.

 

Not that I'm giving credit to the front office for predicting Sano's hamstring injury when those guys didn't get recalled.

[howieramone2]

 

Good call, the biggest problem with Sano's hammy is not having that flexibility at DH.  I'd like to see more Vargas also.  As it turned out, there wouldn't have been much playing time to add Kepler, Pinto or Arcia.

 

Not that I'm giving credit to the front office for predicting Sano's hamstring injury when those guys didn't get recalled.

I think they would recall Wally the Beerman before Pinto.

[dxpavelka]

 

I think we'd see a lot more of Sano at third if not for the hamstring injury.

We didn't see much of him there before the hammy either though.

[laloesch]

 

 "But another subpar outing could put Pelfrey's rotation spot in jeopardy, as rookie right-hander Tyler Duffey has been pitching well"

 

Doesn't that imply that if Pelfrey has a "par" or better outing his rotation spot is safe?

 

Jesus I'm so tired of the Pelfrey experiment.  It's infuriating that the Twins continue to placate this man's ego and keep him in the rotation in lieu of Trevor May and the three options we had in AAA (Pat Dean, Michael Bowden & Taylor Rodgers), all of whom won 11+ games.

[jimbo92107]

If Duffey absolutely, positively has an innings issue, than he should go to the pen and May should come back to the rotation. 

 

I'm not going to buy that May will have a hard time getting stretched back out if Hughes is coming back from a month off and they'll be able to get him up to speed by doing simulated games.

That's the ticket. Get May back into the rotation, put Duffey in the pen.

 

The Twins didn't plan to be this good this year. The young kids were all supposed to struggle. I blame Rosario in particular, and Duffey. And Hicks, he was supposed to be a flop, then he came back from some odd demotion with a new swing minus his French Mistake, and now he cranking baseballs all over. Then there's Escobar. Who knew he would swap places with his distant cousin, Kal-Esco from Krypton? Then of course Sano steps in and looks like Frank Thomas 2.0... At least Buxton didn't come up looking like Rickey Henderson at the plate. He's more like a normal rookie...with freakish physical talent.

 

Partly I blame Mike Pelfrey, too, for pitching like a new man with a devastating forkball in the first half, then dropping the fork and reverting to his mediocre self in the second half. Oh cruel, cruel hope! And we can't forget Glen Perkins, who was perfect for the first half, then the Devil came to collect his body parts after the All-Star game.

 

It's been a very odd season. Even Torii Hunter came back for a crazy good first half, then pooped out after the All Star game with accumulated bumps and bruises that don't heal up at 40 like then did when he was 25. The Twins in the first half looked like they could win it all. In the second half, they're struggling to find healthy players. One way or another, everybody is reaching their limits.

[drjim]

Yes, I am suggesting that cutting Berrios' innings and Duffey's innings in the minors to 5 inning starts does NOT hurt their development, and keeps them available in case odds/plans change. Yes, I am suggesting that.

Limiting starts to 5 innings absolutely hurts development. Starters need to learn to turn over a lineup 3 times to be effective in the bigs.

 

Skipping starts or 6 man rotations could have been an option, but it does have to be acknowledged that shifting from a development plan would have consequences. The question is whether it would have outweighed the benefit to the postseason push.

 

I would have called him up for May's spot start, given him starts and transitioned him into a multi inning reliever, but that would have had consequences on his long term development. Perhaps even kept him down at the beginning of next year for an extended time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Limiting starts to 5 innings absolutely hurts development. Starters need to learn to turn over a lineup 3 times to be effective in the bigs.

Mike Pelfrey routinely goes through a lineup 4, 5, or even 6 times in five innings. I don't see the problem here.

[VandyTwinsFan]

 

Mike Pelfrey routinely goes through a lineup 4, 5, or even 6 times in five innings. I don't see the problem here.

 

The last 2 articles I've read ended with a Brock punchline. Solid ones too. Let's ride the hot bat! Brock, you've got game thread duties tomorrow.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Why does this quote sound as though Pelfrey is still ahead of Duffey in the rotation hierarchy?

 

This simply cannot be true is it? One non-terrible start by Pelfrey and Hughes replaces Duffey in the rotation? This "seniority" stuff has to stop, the team needs to open their eyes and see what's going on with the rest of the league. Play the young players.

How about: Play the better players.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, I am suggesting that cutting Berrios' innings and Duffey's innings in the minors to 5 inning starts does NOT hurt their development, and keeps them available in case odds/plans change. Yes, I am suggesting that.

But then they would not have proved they were ready to pitch in the majors, since they hadn't established their ability to go deep in starts.

[stringer bell]

I wanted Berrios up, but in looking at his season this year, he wasn't really dominant until the end of the season. By then, he had worked a lot of innings.

 

It's sort of a Catch-22--the very innings that showed he was ready for the next level in the end prevented him from being promoted.

[DaveW]

Since Pelf obviously won't come out of the rotation now, do the Twins maybe Goto a "hybrid" 6 man rotation the rest of the year? Maybe that can save Duffey a couple innings?

 

I dunno...just spitballing since Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Santana all should certainly stay in the rotation....

[Thegrin]

Pelfrey's good game certainly confuses the situation.  We must hope he continues.

 

I believe the rule of thumb is that a developing pitcher should not increase his innings by more than 20 %.

 

In '14 Duffy pitched 149.2 innings.  Add 20% (30 inn) to that and you have 180 innings.

 

So far this year Duffy pitched   52.2 in Chat and 85.1 in Roch for a total of 138 innings.  Add to that the 32.1 he has pitched with the Twins and you have a total of 170.1 innings so far.  If he has 2 decent 6 inning starts he will have reached his innings total. 

 

Skipping this start is prudent. If Hughes comes back, moving Duffy to the bullpen would also be a prudent decision. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wanted Berrios up, but in looking at his season this year, he wasn't really dominant until the end of the season. By then, he had worked a lot of innings.

 

It's sort of a Catch-22--the very innings that showed he was ready for the next level in the end prevented him from being promoted.

Duffey wasn't really dominant at any point at AAA this season.  I don't think that's a useful standard to use.

 

In fact, everybody and his dog knew that Berrios would start this year at AA, and given what he showed at that level last season, it was clear that, if healthy, he was almost certainly going to be promoted to AAA by midseason.  There's no way anyone could claim surprise that he started breezing through AAA lineups by late July, and that he took it to another level for a couple starts in August.

 

But I don't think the Twins were caught flat-footed on his development -- I think it was just TR sticking to his preseason plan for Berrios.  Whether he was primarily trying to protect Berrios' future, overrating the usefulness of the 40-man spot, overrating our current MLB pitcher staff, etc., hopefully that decision doesn't leave a sour aftertaste on the season.