Don't look now, Twins have won 7 of last 12

[dougkoebernick]

After starting the season 1-5, the Twins have now gone 7-5 in their last 12. Even though their run differential is -23 it is actually in the positive column for the last 12 games.

Is the start of a .500 team or is it merely a coincidence? I think if they can improve the bullpen and get some improvement from the DH spot and CF they might be ok. It is good to see Mauer starting to heat up a bit.

 

What do you all think?

[kellyvance]

Damn fool luck.

[Danchat]

A bit of coincidence. The Twins are going to keep winning some games with their offense, and their pitching is probably going to regress a bit. This is not a .500 team, and I'd say we're going to end up with right around 90 losses.

[Rosterman]

It all comes down to the starters and them keeping us in the game. If Ervin Santana comes back and can win against the #1s of other team's, or if Phil Hughes cane pitch like he did the other night but not have to get outpitched himself, we can hope the bullpen never implodes, and the bats give us 4-5 runs a game and at least 8-10 hits minimum. Less strikeouts from the batters, more strikeouts from the pitchers. You gotta beat teams on your own level at the least. Maybe we all panicked, but I don't really think we did.

[Pius Jefferson]

A 7-5 record is barely better than mediocre. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

A 7-5 record is barely better than mediocre.

 

Not accurate at all. That winning percentage makes the playoffs.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Damn fool luck.

No, the first six games were the abberation, not the .500-looking team since.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Not accurate at all. That winning percentage makes the playoffs.

 

I wasn't talking about over a full season. Even bad teams have good stretches. The Twins at some point will have a better 12 game stretch.

[h2oface]

Hey,,,, why so negative......... they have won 7 of the last 11 .... 7-4! Take that percentage. 

[big dog]

They've played three series against the teams with the two best records in the AL, and until this weekend they had 3 of the league's 4 wins against KC (now it's 3 of 6).

 

And besides, don't make mediocre sound bad...a mediocre record would be a huge upgrade over recent years.  Sure, we want more (and I want it now) but that whole last-to-first thing isn't all that common.

 

I certainly don't think they are a good team, but at least they might be a team that gives you a chance to win most nights.  If we can upgrade some spots (as discussed at long length in many threads, not trying to introduce the idea here too), the summer might be a little less dismal than I feared.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm a bit more concerned about the offense right now. There's some hope on the way (Pinto in particular can provide a pretty nice upgrade over someone)... but there's not much exciting going on there.

[Mike Sixel]

I like wins. I endorse this hotness.....

[gunnarthor]

No reason to be negative.  I think most of us, after that Detroit opening series, would have been thrilled to be 8-10.  This team still has some problems.  I was never a big believer in Vargas so I'm more than ready to pull the plug on him and bring up Pinto.  Everyone knew Santana would regress but he's really looked lost.  More than I thought he'd look.  I'm not sure if he needs to go to AAA to work on things/get confidence or work it out up here but he needs to get better. 

 

But it's nice to see the team stealing some series from teams.  No reason not to enjoy it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This team isn't as bad as they looked in the first week of the season and they're almost certainly not going to continue the recent "warm streak".

 

This is probably a 75-ish win team, which is what I expected before the season. My opinion hasn't changed, which is a good thing because losing Santana hasn't hurt as much as I thought it would.

 

The offense *should* rebound at some point. If the Twins manage to somehow improve the offense, the rotation holds together, and the inevitable call-ups improve the bullpen, then they might be able to sniff .500 but I think that's really unlikely. A lot has to go right for that to happen.

[Halsey Hall]

In the Central in the last 10 games the Twins have the only winning record.

[bird]

Santana and Nolasco are absent. Arcia, Santana, and Vargas are looking pathetic right now. Every other starting position player is under-performing. The back end of the bullpen is scuffling. No other starter is on fire.

 

I'll take 8-10, thank you.

[DocBauer]

I also don't think this team is as bad as they looked the first 10 games or so. I would love to eat crow, but I don't like Pelfrey in the rotation. I like the rotation better with Nolasco. I like them oration even better with Santana in it, and either Nolasco or Milone gone. (Notice how May staus in all those comments?)

 

The pen has been better, but I don't trust all the participants involved.

 

Looks like the hitting is coming around a bit, but something isn't right when the, argueably, least important player, Nunez, and arguably the worst hitter on the team, Robinson, are leading the club in hitting.

 

CF is still a hot mess despite Robinson's early hot streak.

 

Fix CF so the defense can help cover the corners and not frighten the pitchers, tweak the pen, (POSSIBLY with help from Pelfrey but I'd prefer prospects), and see if the offense can't come around...not career years, just come around...and I think we have a .500 club. The rotation could, potentially, lift the team a couple games above.

[gocgo]

While wins and losses are the only numbers that matter, they rarely tell the true story...and I love that about baseball.

 

Reality check - Twins have scored only 60 runs this year, 21 fewer than the AL average. Their OPS is .608 which ranks them at the bottom of the AL by .022 points and a full .101 point below the AL average.  That's not good

 

Meanwhile, on the pitching front, the ERA is 4.33, however, I think ERA is an overrated stat (a slow defense often inflates ERA while a great defense deflates ERA).  We are last in strike outs by a long ways (no shocker there) while our batting average against our pitchers is tied for 2nd to last in the AL at .260.  That's not good.

 

What about our defense?  Well, our fielding percentage of .980 puts us at 10th in the AL.  That's not counting the balls in the outfield that drop because our guys can't get there to get a glove on it. 

 

OK, so what does all that mean?  It means that if you get timely hitting and your opponents don't over a short period of time, you can win games.  However, over the long haul, if these stats continue, the odds of winning the majority of our games are....not good!

 

Not being negative.  Being realistic based on the numbers.

[gunnarthor]

 

While wins and losses are the only numbers that matter, they rarely tell the true story...and I love that about baseball.

 

Reality check - Twins have scored only 60 runs this year, 21 fewer than the AL average. Their OPS is .608 which ranks them at the bottom of the AL by .022 points and a full .101 point below the AL average.  That's not good

 

Meanwhile, on the pitching front, the ERA is 4.33, however, I think ERA is an overrated stat (a slow defense often inflates ERA while a great defense deflates ERA).  We are last in strike outs by a long ways (no shocker there) while our batting average against our pitchers is tied for 2nd to last in the AL at .260.  That's not good.

 

What about our defense?  Well, our fielding percentage of .960 puts us at 10th in the AL.  That's not counting the balls in the outfield that drop because our guys can't get there to get a glove on it. 

 

OK, so what does all that mean?  It means that if you get timely hitting and your opponents don't over a short period of time, you can win games.  However, over the long haul, if these stats continue, the odds of winning the majority of our games are....not good!

 

Not being negative.  Being realistic based on the numbers.

Again, I don't think anyone is arguing that.  I don't think anyone expects those numbers to remain static and the team to continue to flirt with .500.   

[MileHighTwinsFan]

All I know is watching this team yesterday was special.  Thompson and Fien making big pitches late to extend the game and Mauer delivering in the clutch was fantastic.  

[gocgo]

 

Again, I don't think anyone is arguing that.  I don't think anyone expects those numbers to remain static and the team to continue to flirt with .500.   

Yup, understand.  I guess what I am really saying is that if those numbers continue, 90 losses is probable.

[jokin]

 

While wins and losses are the only numbers that matter, they rarely tell the true story...and I love that about baseball.

 

Reality check - Twins have scored only 60 runs this year, 21 fewer than the AL average. Their OPS is .608 which ranks them at the bottom of the AL by .022 points and a full .101 point below the AL average.  That's not good

 

Meanwhile, on the pitching front, the ERA is 4.33, however, I think ERA is an overrated stat (a slow defense often inflates ERA while a great defense deflates ERA).  We are last in strike outs by a long ways (no shocker there) while our batting average against our pitchers is tied for 2nd to last in the AL at .260.  That's not good.

 

What about our defense?  Well, our fielding percentage of .960 puts us at 10th in the AL.  That's not counting the balls in the outfield that drop because our guys can't get there to get a glove on it. 

 

OK, so what does all that mean?  It means that if you get timely hitting and your opponents don't over a short period of time, you can win games.  However, over the long haul, if these stats continue, the odds of winning the majority of our games are....not good!

 

Not being negative.  Being realistic based on the numbers.

 

Boy, what a good post.  Baseball's longest-ever winning streak was from the NY Giants, who won 26 straight in 1916, but still only finished 4th in an 8-team league.  And in each of the last 4 years, the Twins had their "It's Happening" moment at some point in the first half of the season, to the point that there was actual discussion- despite all of the obvious warts-  on whether or not this team was a contender rather than a pretender. 

 

I like some of the line-up juggling that Molitor has employed- eventually he'll find the right combination, perhaps even moving Mauer up in the batting order.  And I especially like how he uses the bullpen- frequently asking for multiple innings from the staff--> rather than Gardy wasting 5 or more arms in one night, to pitch one inning, or less, and then publicly complaining that he needs a 13th, or even 14th pitcher.

 

In the meantime, let's all appreciate the serendipity of these mini-streaks of enjoyable baseball, with the full recognition that the failure quotient side of the won-loss equation actually is still the most important factor in effecting the necessary personnel and philosophical changes for this club moving forward.

[jokin]

 

Yup, understand.  I guess what I am really saying is that if those numbers continue, 90 losses is probable.

 

 

or "likely"...  or "inevitable"

[Blake]

If you want the marker that says this Twins team MAY BE DIFFERENT look no further than the game and series winning hit Sunday.

 

That's right, Joe Mauer, the person who should be counted on to get such a hit got the hit. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I like that Molitor is willing to try out Perkins in high leverage situations.......and not just inning 9.

[amjgt]

The Twins are 8-10 and half of those games (soon to be 60%) have come against, what one publication deems to be the best two teams in the league ( http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-the-30-marlins-astros-rays-cardinals-bad-luck/ )

 

The Twins have looked downright terrible at times over these first three weeks, but looking purely at W/L, I'd say we are more than holding our own.

 

Another publican agrees ( http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi )

[jimmer]

 

If you want the marker that says this Twins team MAY BE DIFFERENT look no further than the game and series winning hit Sunday.

 

That's right, Joe Mauer, the person who should be counted on to get such a hit got the hit. 

yup, thank goodness his turn in the lineup came up at that point.  The randomness of that being under the control of a player and all.

[Dave T]

Twins defense still sucks, and Schafer is not the answer in CF.  The pitching, on the other hand, has improved enormously over last year.  Is it a coincidence that it has improved while Nolasco and Duensing were on the DL?  Hell no!!  There's no way the Twins will send Thompson down when Duensing is ready to return.  Thompson is doing the job Duensing was supposed to do.

 

Mauer drove in three runs on Sunday, and it is a pleasure to see him hitting the ball hard.  I wish I could say the same for any other Twins hitter.  Mauer's hitting + current pitching is enough to get the Twins close to a .500 record.  Some of the other hitters are going to have to step up if Twins hope to stay in 3rd place.

[Zachary]

I just did the math.

 

Last 11 games: The starters are posting an ERA of 3.17. The K/BB ratio isn't through the roof, but that ERA though (I guess the correct analogy for a good ERA would be through the floor).

 

Does anyone have handy a correlation between starting pitching ERA and Win % ? I was going to make the assumption that the correlation is high but my father tought me better about making groundless assumptions

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins are 8-10 and half of those games (soon to be 60%) have come against, what one publication deems to be the best two teams in the league ( http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-the-30-marlins-astros-rays-cardinals-bad-luck/ )

 

The Twins have looked downright terrible at times over these first three weeks, but looking purely at W/L, I'd say we are more than holding our own.

The Twins similarly "more than held their own" all the way into June 2014.

 

They also started 9-7 in 2013, playing against 3 playoff teams/contenders, and continued around .500 into mid-May.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am glad we don't have the Brewers record right now, but our record at this point doesn't sway preseason projections yet, either way.