TRYING HARD to find that SILVER LINING

[DocBauer]

See what I did with the capital letters there? LOL

 

First of all, this honestly has little to nothing to do with the Detroit series. (OK...only a teeny, tiny white lie there)  I mean, we're talking the first three games of an entire 162 game season...on the road...against a good ball club? It happens. Completely stinks just how embarrassingly AWFUL (and borderline inept) the team looked. But it's still three games, one series, and life and the season move along.

 

I'm not going to blow smoke about how tomorrow is a new day, Astro rainbows will break out, and the Twins will be in the playoffs because they will play .700 ball starting with the ChiSox series. And I'm not going to bash TR for the Nolasco or Santana signings. (though I'd love to nail him a bit about the second go-round with Pelfrey that just didn't make sense at all, especially for 2 years and $5M per. Huh?) I wanted Kazmir and not Nolasco .( Looks like I win that one!)  I thought Santana was an excellent signing overall, and one of the top 2 I wanted this past off season. (if no ACE type was to be signed)

 

Both signings were a $M higher than they probably should have been, and each probably 1 year longer than they should have been. But in today's FA market, both contracts are generally in line. And be honest, forget injury and suspension, these two guys, based on pure history and track record and dependability and projectability, were each solid, quality signings. Especially for a team that had suffered through a stretch of starting arms that pitched about as well as Martin or Akroyd in a singles bar with Czech accents. (What's your sign?) But on the whole, on the surface of a golden pond, Steppenwolf "Magic Carpet Ride" the signings were smart and solid and should have helped.

 

Best laid plans of mice and men and yadda yadda yadda. Murphy was an optomist!

 

So here we are, and kind of how we got to where we are:

 

For...wait for it now...THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW TERRY RYAN COMPLETELY BLEW THE TWINS CF SITUATION.  I am completely dumb and dumber awestruck how we could end up here again.The top acquisition was a AAAA OF who plays good defense but who's offensive history makes Jason Tyner look like...oh...Hosken Powell on a goo day? (wink and a nudge there) But you get the point!

 

I honestly and truly didn't think Milone would be part of the rotation. I honestly and truly felt May had the last spot in the rotation sewed up like Betsy Ross! (OK, 75-80%)  I also thought, really and truly, that a healthy Nolasco would help the club the first half of the season, then help it some more when he was traded around mid-season, bringing back salary, at least one decent prospect, and opening a spot for Meyer who would be knock-knock-knocking on Target Field's clubhouse door for his shot.

 

I also thought Stauffer was a poor signing. I just didn't see him as a fit for the club and what we needed. I felt we'd make one senior FA signing, a Burton type, but just didn't see Stauffer as the fit. Especially with so many young mid-innings arms available, including a couple with 8th inning potential. Thus far, through ST and the first couple of games...well...you know.

 

So we don't have Santana or Nolasco in the rotation. We have a bullpen that requires doses of Mylanta and Prilosec before the season even gets fully under way. Anything hit to the OF feels us feel like the forever moments before an impending car crash. (we were hoping for a quality CF defensive option that would allow for seatbelts and airbags at least) And the MLB team that has either the best, or second best, minor league organization of all the ML teams has ONE rookie on the club, and he's jumping to the majors from AA as a rule 5 draft choice.

 

(deep breath)

 

Ok Doc...you might be saying about right now...(it's alright, I heard you)..."where is this "silver lining" you speak of?  I thought you were one of the optimists here at TD? Right now, your rainbow is light refracted on sludge, and your silver lining is badly tarnished. Where's the Celexa?"

 

Here we go....

 

We will get Santana back. And yeah, it may sound trite and cliche and we've made jokes about it, but it really is like a mid-season trade for a solid, quality veteran starter. I still think he'll be the Twins 3rd best man behind Hughes and a developing Gibson, but that's OK. He'll be a really nice #3 SP for now.

 

It's May's time now. And don't kid yourself, he knows it. And he's going to prove it. He built on mistakes last season, finished strong, and posted numbers in his last few starts that few Twins pitchers could have hoped to reach the past few seasons. There will be NO REASON to send him down if Nolasco is healthy and comes back soon.

 

Why? Because Pelfrey, at the end of the day, is still Pelfrey. We have come to the point, when examining Mr. Pelfrey, where we must now admit that the couple really solid seasons he has had as a ML starter...logging GS and IP with a solid W-L record and ERA, etc...are the abnormal, and not the norm or potential norm. High, hard and straight is still high, hard and straight, whether in the rotation or the bullpen. However, in the pen, for an inning, two tops, is different than trying to face batters 2 or 3 times through a lineup. And I don't know if Pelfrey can succeed as a RP or not. (again with the whole high, hard and straight thing) But I think he at least has a shot there. Hey, just because you can't deliver or sort the mail doesn't mean you don't have great penmanship or a really wet tongue to address and lick closed the envelopes!

 

May is in and will almost assuredly stay in. Pelfrey will self destruct as a SP. The question there then becomes, is he traded? (no way)  Released? (possibly) Shown the door the the bullpen again? (probably) This opens another spot. It allows for either: A) a healthy Nolasco pitching well and helping the Twins, or becoming fairly valuable trade bait which could open up a spot in the rotation...or... an injured or ineffective Nolasco, which kind of screws the Twins, but opens the door the Meyer to come up after a few starts in AAA to work on his mechanics and change, gain confidence, and be focused and ready.

 

These are pretty real scenarios. May is already up. We already know what Pelfrey can and can't do. Nolasco is a big question mark. Whether it was in the Twins plans to roll with these vets temporarily while May and Meyer got some AAA work in for April and May or not...we are coming to the point where best laid plans are moot. The rock is FINALLY meeting the hard place, and it's time to run with the youth of tomorrow. (in a fully positive, non-MTV kind of way) Even if Ryan has been replaced by an evil alien, Cthulhu or angry ChiSox anti-Twin deity, the inevitable has been placed upon him. Great rusty gears are finally in motion.

 

Pelfrey will undoubtedly be given the "idea" to apply his version of pitching in the bullpen, and we will see what happens. But he, and Stauffer and Boyer will need to show something, immediately if not sooner. And the reason is simple; despite promises made before signings, (if made), despite senioritis over freshman youth, despite "proven" over potential, the arms at AAA Rochester are just better, as well as younger and cheaper. And the arms at AA Chat are even better!

 

CF? Oh my! What can I say? I've been on this for two plus years now like white on rice...like flies on a Yankee crap..errr...CAP...like a Kardashian on an NBA player....and push will come, soon and probably hard, to shove, and something will have to happen here. Can we get by for a month or two at most with what we have? I honestly have my doubts. But that month or two might just be enough to Hicks and/or Rosario to work on some things, get some momentum and confidence, and either or both get their shot.

 

The whole point here is...a lousy start...the Santana and Nolasco news...Pelfrey still around...Stauffer and Boyer...the CF situation...may be beyond any normal human control of conservatism. The bad news of Santana and Nolasco is creating a snowball affect that should actually be of benefit to the future of our beloved Twins. May up first, Meyer next...(others waiting in the nearby wings, Rochester that is)...Pelfrey to succeed in the pen, or forever be gone, which in turn helps hasten the moves of Stauffer and Boyer potentially, etc.

 

None of this is personal. Not in the slightest! It's just about game....and our Twins...and how much they have in them...and could have. Augmenting the roster is one thing. Buying a month or two time with fill-ins to give that little extra prep time for youngsters could prove to be prudent in the long run. But stubbornly refusing to move forward is something all together different. Like it or not, despite exiting ST with a seeming stall in the rebuild and youth movement forward, it seems to be brewing a life of its own.

 

And that is a good thing. And it shines like silver!

 

[kab21]

I don't think the Twins completely blew the CF situation.  They have done exactly what some complain that the Twins are doing at other position.  They have completely paved the road for Buxton to be called up midseason by not having a solid but not good option to theoretically block him.  The ABSOLUTE LAST THING the Twins should have done is spend actual money on a decent CF that the team would not bench.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think the Twins completely blew the CF situation.  They have done exactly what some complain that the Twins are doing at other position.  They have completely paved the road for Buxton to be called up midseason by not having a solid but not good option to theoretically block him.  The ABSOLUTE LAST THING the Twins should have done is spend actual money on a decent CF that the team would not bench.

This does nothing to explain the last two years, it's not like our CF issues started a few days ago. They gambled on jumping a guy from AA with an awful plan B and then doubled down a year later with a backup plan inconcievably silly behind the same failed player. Then they gambled again with an only slightly better plan for a third straight year.

 

Too many good players isn't a bad problem to have, especially when you are willing to let the best players play.

[Dantes929]

Pelfrey had a nice stretch over two months and 11 games in the 2nd half of 2013 where he had an ERA under 3.5 before stumbling at the end.  That showed way more success in the AL than Nolasco has shown and was probably the basis for the extension.     They did it backwards and should have signed him to the two year contract in the 1st place rather than 1 year and then two.   He had a good ST and I have not written him off as being incapable.    I would rather have May though.

[adorduan]

 

I don't think the Twins completely blew the CF situation.  They have done exactly what some complain that the Twins are doing at other position.  They have completely paved the road for Buxton to be called up midseason by not having a solid but not good option to theoretically block him.  The ABSOLUTE LAST THING the Twins should have done is spend actual money on a decent CF that the team would not bench.

 

Buxton still has work to do.  I would be very surprised if he is called up mid-season.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Buxton still has work to do.  I would be very surprised if he is called up mid-season.

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  Beware the "5-Tool Player".  They'll only break your heart. 

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins are clearly getting outspent by the rest of baseball.  If management/owners wish to continue down this path, they need be far more aggressive with both scouting and promoting players.

[kab21]

 

This does nothing to explain the last two years, it's not like our CF issues started a few days ago. They gambled on jumping a guy from AA with an awful plan B and then doubled down a year later with a backup plan inconcievably silly behind the same failed player. Then they gambled again with an only slightly better plan for a third straight year.

Too many good players isn't a bad problem to have, especially when you are willing to let the best players play.

 

The problem with this is that they weren't going to get a good player for nothing.  They were either going to need to give up an asset in a trade or most likely guarantee multiple years and a lot of dollars.  They should have been able to find someone better than Schabinson but that player still wouldn't have been cheap.

[jorgenswest]

The problem with this is that they weren't going to get a good player for nothing.  They were either going to need to give up an asset in a trade or most likely guarantee multiple years and a lot of dollars.  They should have been able to find someone better than Schabinson but that player still wouldn't have been cheap.

Tigers and White Sox had the same need for CF help and it wasn't cheap.

 

The cost of Adam Eaton was Hector Santiago.

 

The cost of Anthony Gose was Devin Travis.

 

I am not sure we had a match for Hector Santiago to deal last year. Devin Travis is probably a better prospect than Jorge Polanco but they would have been pretty comparable.

[jorgenswest]

This is not the way the Twins have rebuilt in the previous two successful runs. It is how they ran business from 1993-1998. It started about by trying to get the pieces to make a run with the veteran team and ended by trying to give the illusion of a competitive team. Finally in 1999 they stopped spending money on decline phase veterans and went young. They also went young in the early 80s. Both of those rebuilds did not take money. They took patience in the mistakes and struggles of young players.

 

The problem with mixing decline phase mediocre veterans with young players is that the two balance each other. Young players improve and veterans decline and the team record changes very little. It certainly doesn't make the 15-20 game jump necessary to contend. They either need to sign very good players who have space for decline or they need to build a roster full of players with upside and let them grow together.

[eLee612]

#PunsOnPoint

 

Additional silver linings:

 

1) My doctor cut my anti-hypertensive in half now that we have successfully notched >1 run.

 

2) Twins overhead for grief and anger management has decreased by 25% following Friday's win against the White Sox, freeing up an additional $500 for the international draft signing pool. (It wasn't a very large fund.)

 

3) Barrio tacos.

[SwainZag]

 

The Twins are clearly getting outspent by the rest of baseball.  If management/owners wish to continue down this path, they need be far more aggressive with both scouting and promoting players.

 

Honestly, outside of Meyer who have they not been aggressive with?  Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and even Pinto all got shots in the last 2-3 seasons at a very young age.  

[Halsey Hall]

Sounds personal to me.  Your dislike for Pelfery and his signing has been repeated many times.  Personally, I'm in his corner, and hope he has a good start to this season.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem with this is that they weren't going to get a good player for nothing.  They were either going to need to give up an asset in a trade or most likely guarantee multiple years and a lot of dollars.  They should have been able to find someone better than Schabinson but that player still wouldn't have been cheap.

We can debate what cheap means but to me the fact you have to give up an asset in order to patch a gaping hole doesnt seem like a bad idea.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Honestly, outside of Meyer who have they not been aggressive with?  Hicks, Vargas, Arcia, Santana and even Pinto all got shots in the last 2-3 seasons at a very young age.  

Yeah, allow me to clarify:

 

"Out spent" as in no impact free agents signed.  Oh, Hunter can still hit some, but his great defense is in the past.  So, his spot on the roster is blocking [add Schaefer and Robinson to this list] an outfielder like Rosario who, by all accounts, performed very well in Spring Training. 

 

Meyer [like you said] May, [both 25] who have been put on hold for the likes of E. Santana, Pelfry and Nolasco, a good/promising bunch of young relievers [Tonkin, Burdi] being "blocked" by the likes of Stauffer, and Boyer.  To a lesser extent, wasting Escobar as a utility player.

 

Oh, I didn't count the recent moves.  To much work

[SwainZag]

 

Yeah, allow me to clarify:

 

"Out spent" as in no impact free agents signed.  Oh, Hunter can still hit some, but his great defense is in the past.  So, his spot on the roster is blocking [add Schaefer and Robinson to this list] an outfielder like Rosario who, by all accounts, performed very well in Spring Training. 

 

Meyer [like you said] May, [both 25] who have been put on hold for the likes of E. Santana, Pelfry and Nolasco, a good/promising bunch of young relievers [Tonkin, Burdi] being "blocked" by the likes of Stauffer, and Boyer.  To a lesser extent, wasting Escobar as a utility player.

 

Oh, I didn't count the recent moves.  To much work

 

The same Rosario who hit .237/.277/.396 in 336 plate appearances in AA last season?  What is performing well in ST?  He hit .233/.227/.442 this Spring.  Yes, he can field but if anything he has shown he is not ready.  He should have to at least show SOME aspect that he is ready for the show before he is labeled "blocked."

 

Before 2014 neither Meyer nor May were blocked, as neither of them had pitched above AA!  Pelfrey and Nolasco were signed before either one of them had thrown a pitch above AA.  They both still struggle with control, but I think we both can agree they both probably should be getting a shot right now. 

 

How is Burdi "blocked" by anyone?  He was drafted less than a year ago and before last week he had never pitched above A ball.  I think some people see a handful of college pitchers make it very quickly to the majors and assume every college reliever should be the same.  Burdi is a great talent and will earn his spot, but he didn't even get an invite to ST, his spot is not being blocked.

 

I just think there is this general consensus that the Twins are not aggressive when promoting guys which really isn't very true.

[adorduan]

 

Sounds personal to me.  Your dislike for Pelfery and his signing has been repeated many times.  Personally, I'm in his corner, and hope he has a good start to this season.

  Sorta like you and Plouffe?

[Halsey Hall]

 

  Sorta like you and Plouffe?

Exactly!  Well put.

[jokin]

 

 

 

How is Burdi "blocked" by anyone?  He was drafted less than a year ago and before last week he had never pitched above A ball.  I think some people see a handful of college pitchers make it very quickly to the majors and assume every college reliever should be the same.  Burdi is a great talent and will earn his spot, but he didn't even get an invite to ST, his spot is not being blocked.

 

I just think there is this general consensus that the Twins are not aggressive when promoting guys which really isn't very true.

 

Your last sentence is directly contradicted by the previous one, which is a contradiction of itself.    The question is- Why?    Why wasn't Burdi invited to ST?    Because he was blocked.

[jokin]

 

 

 

 

I just think there is this general consensus that the Twins are not aggressive when promoting guys which really isn't very true.

 

If there is any doubt that this statement is not true, one only need look at last season.    A lost season coming out of the chute, stocked with journeyman, has-been and never-will-be pitchers, and ridiculous minor league and major league FA signings and a  parade of "promotions" to the big club   of   the washed-up and/or familiar names variety,    as well as the AAAA variety.-    Has another team ever had that many bad and never-were players over 30 in one season?

 

Meanwhile, Santana was only promoted out of   sheer panic and   desperation, and out of position, when the club completely bumbled the CF situation.   Vargas wasn't promoted    in May while demonstrating mastery of AA-   in favor of signing   a clearly rusty and out of shape Morales.    May and Meyer weren't promoted in May in favor of a litany of SP arms of awfulness, many of whom are now out of baseball or mired in the minors.    Pinto never getting a shot at regular PAs due to Gardy's theories on catchers.

 

 

[Danchat]

I'd like to state something about Alex Meyer - I really wanted him to be called up when he was on a roll last season in AAA. They never called him up, and that's what ticked me off.

 

However, now that Meyer's command has declined and he's struggling to throw strikes, so I don't think we should call him up yet. We should wait until he gets more control before we send him up against major league batters.

[Rosterman]

But Meyer wasn't on the 40-man. Instead, the Twins choose to add someone who may/may not be around to the 40-man for a bandaid solution. Go figure.

 

Yes, would we be just as well served having Rosario and Hicks battling it out as part-timers this year, and anyone else putting in time at AAA instead of the likes of Boyer, Stauffer, Pelfrey, Noalsco and even Aaron Thompson. 

 

If the powers-that-be figure the Twins can improve and be competitive with what they are fielding, so-be-it. But I'm sure they wanted to avoid any mention of rebuilding, as that was the sure-fire way to NOT sell season tickets (praise Hunter) and create interest in the Twins as an entertainment above and beyond the blogosphere. 

 

They have April to show people something, otherwise the few season tickets they did sell will be going for pretty cheap on StubHub. And no one will be buying all those geat new concessions.

[stringer bell]

Today's loss is an example where a more well-rounded team would win. The Twins put a four-spot on a good pitcher but then couldn't add on, they got a poor and short start from their guy and then got outpitched by a mediocre bullpen.

[kab21]

 

We can debate what cheap means but to me the fact you have to give up an asset in order to patch a gaping hole doesnt seem like a bad idea.

 

Why give up something for a mediocre short term option when two of your better hitting prospects are in AA and AAA?

 

Aside from Rasmus who the Twins might have simply said no to regardless of need/cost there weren't good, cheap options.  Did you want to outbid and get Aoki for 2 years?  That's the kind of option that was available in free agency and trade market this winter.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 Did you want to outbid and get Aoki for 2 years?  That's the kind of option that was available in free agency and trade market this winter.

 

It is not a "this winter" problem.  This is a three year, ongoing disaster.  We could have traded for Gose, signed Aoki, traded for Bourjos, traded for De Aza, or kept Sam Fuld for all I care.  Or any of the other many possibilities over three years.

 

I mean, is it really your contention that for the last three years the best plan we could come up with as insurance for Aaron Hicks was Shane Robinson?  We have PLANNED for Mastro, Jason Bartlett, and Shane Robinson/Schaefer the last three years behind Hicks.  Last year we were saved from ourselves by the good fortune of Fuld being waived, but   I find it impossible to believe those were our best options.

 

So yeah, why the heck not give up a prospect that ranks 10-20 in your system for such a vital defensive position?

[kab21]

You underestimate what it would cost to get some of those guys and/or overestimate their effectiveness.  Gose for example cost a top 100 prospect that started opening day.  Aoki is AWFUL defensively.

 

The previous years I have been more critical of not having a better 2nd option but this year I see a road that is paved for Buxton or Rosario to take the job if they play well in the minors.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't think the CF situation paves the way for Buxton, anymore than I think Hunter paves the way for Rosario. I think 3/3 of the outfield being terrible is just low priority. The hope is Arcia figures it out, and Hunter/Schafer/Robinson can patch it together for a season. Tackle it next year. Maybe Buxton and/or Rosario, maybe a new batch of afterthoughts.

 

Agree wholeheartedly on the pitching, the intention and strategy was ok, sign reliable mid rotation guys and hope that by the end of the contract they are still viable back rotation guys. Not panning out so far, but that's free agency. The bad part about Santana is your losing 25%-100% of his viable pitching window.

 

With no roids, does he lose his durability?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It is not a "this winter" problem.  This is a three year, ongoing disaster.  We could have traded for Gose, signed Aoki, traded for Bourjos, traded for De Aza, or kept Sam Fuld for all I care.  Or any of the other many possibilities over three years.

 

I mean, is it really your contention that for the last three years the best plan we could come up with as insurance for Aaron Hicks was Shane Robinson?  We have PLANNED for Mastro, Jason Bartlett, and Shane Robinson/Schaefer the last three years behind Hicks.  Last year we were saved from ourselves by the good fortune of Fuld being waived, but   I find it impossible to believe those were our best options.

 

So yeah, why the heck not give up a prospect that ranks 10-20 in your system for such a vital defensive position?

prospects are just that, they aren't big leaguers until they play and prove it.

[USAFChief]

You underestimate what it would cost to get some of those guys and/or overestimate their effectiveness.  Gose for example cost a top 100 prospect that started opening day.  Aoki is AWFUL defensively.

 

The previous years I have been more critical of not having a better 2nd option but this year I see a road that is paved for Buxton or Rosario to take the job if they play well in the minors.

Paving the road and leaving it "unblocked" is what the Twins did for Hicks, and how the CF boondoggle originated.

 

Choosing the same route for Buxton seems like making the same mistake, to me.

[TheLeviathan]

You underestimate what it would cost to get some of those guys and/or overestimate their effectiveness.  Gose for example cost a top 100 prospect that started opening day.  Aoki is AWFUL defensively.

 

The previous years I have been more critical of not having a better 2nd option but this year I see a road that is paved for Buxton or Rosario to take the job if they play well in the minors.

Aoki isn't a CF, very true, but you keep missing the larger point: this is year three of reliance on Hicks causing a total disaster at the position. I think the notion that Shane Robinson was our best Plan B option the last three years is really hard to swallow.