Realistic trade return ideas

[DaveW]

 

They have a GREAT farm system. The comment that they shouldn't trade SANO is not the same as "they should not trade any prospect". Why do people jump to the extremes all the time?

Yeah it gets kind of annoying, there is a middle ground where the Twins can be buyers and not have to give up any of their blue chip prospects. You won't get guys like Hamels/Tulo, but there is a whole other group of players who will likely be on the block come July: Adam Lind is one guy I would target, the Brewers likely won't be contending and Lind would be a great DH and a lefty to boot.

If the Astros begin to slide, I could see Rasmus being on the block as well, but I have a feeling they try to lock him up as he has been a real nice addition for them. Cesepedes could be an interesting boom or bust type to bring in as well. If the Yankees/Red Sox fall out of it, I would look at Napoli or Garrett Jones as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, lots of guys should be available as we roll into June and July, though I think the chances of the Astros sliding out of contention is really low. They're a very good team.

[gunnarthor]

If this continues, I think Ryan will be a buyer but he won't be buying a Tulo or Hamels. He'll be trying to find a bargin that helps in the short term without giving up too much that affects the longterm.  He won't add 100m contract or a 4 year commitment.  But there will be a lot of sellers.  A quick look.

 

Oakland will be sellers - Kazmir is a FA at the end of the year, Reddick at the end of 2016.  Twins could try for one of them without having to deal Sano or Buxton.  And Ryan and Beane have made several trades over the years.

 

Miami might be a seller (although who knows with their GM becoming their manager).  Also, anyone notice how god-awful Yelich has been since he signed that huge contract?  Is he a buy low guy that they'd move, hoping to save 50m?

 

Philly will move Howard and Revere (it has its own thread).

 

Reds will trade Cueto (FA after the year) and Jay Bruce (FA after 2016).

 

Rockies would trade Morneau back to us.  

 

The Brewers entire team will probably be traded.

 

 

[Cast of Thousands]

 

No trades involving prospects. Don't get impatient. Don't sacrifice years of future performance for an improved chance at the WS this year, or even next. Wait to see who develops the best. I would, however, trade someone like Pelfrey or Nolasco.

More often than not, I would be in complete agreement with this line of thinking.  We sure do love our prospects, don't we?

 

The chance to win doesn't come around very often.  If things develop a certain way and there are one or two glaring holes, some viable trade candidates that can fill those holes and a willing trade participant, you have to take that chance.

 

Virtually no prospect is "can't miss".  If you have the chance to win by picking up a PROVEN MLB commodity, you need to take that chance and part with a prospect or two.  Sure, the Twins have a few that are likely "untouchable", which is fine.  But you aren't going to get something for nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

I see little chance the Astros are sellers.....once they call up Correa, they'll be even better.

[gunnarthor]

 

I see little chance the Astros are sellers.....once they call up Correa, they'll be even better.

They've been playing a bit over their heads too and, unlike the Twins, have some players having insane starts to the season.  Angels will catch them and I still think they'll finish under .500.

[blairpaul715]

 

If this continues, I think Ryan will be a buyer but he won't be buying a Tulo or Hamels. He'll be trying to find a bargin that helps in the short term without giving up too much that affects the longterm.  He won't add 100m contract or a 4 year commitment.  But there will be a lot of sellers.  A quick look.

 

Oakland will be sellers - Kazmir is a FA at the end of the year, Reddick at the end of 2016.  Twins could try for one of them without having to deal Sano or Buxton. 

Well , I am in the camp, IF ,BIG IF, we are in the running to win a division championship, not just a wild card, that I would be willing to part with anyone other than Buxton or Sano, if that cant get a Hamels type pitcher, so be it...........but i dont want another pitcher that is really no different than what we already have a surplus of, a #3 or #4, which is what Kazmir is.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They've been playing a bit over their heads too and, unlike the Twins, have some players having insane starts to the season.  Angels will catch them and I still think they'll finish under .500.

 

Wouldn't doubt that, but not by July, I don't think.......

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Astros would have to play at a .439 clip for the rest of the season to finish under .500. Last season, they had a .432 winning percentage overall, a .455 winning percentage in the second half.

 

In short, it's pretty unlikely the Astros finish under .500 in 2015 and it's incredibly unlikely that they are sellers at the deadline.

[Thegrin]

 

If I were a GM dealing with the Twins, i would offer s**t.  Everyone can see the coming log jam of prospects.  I'd wait to steal someone from the Twins when they are squeezed. 

 

[DaveW]

 

The Astros would have to play at a .439 clip for the rest of the season to finish under .500. Last season, they had a .432 winning percentage overall, a .455 winning percentage in the second half.

 

In short, it's pretty unlikely the Astros finish under .500 in 2015 and it's incredibly unlikely that they are sellers at the deadline.

Lets not get complete sidetracked on that one throwaway thought.

[Willihammer]

What would be a fair/market price for Matt Barnes from the Red Sox? Young, throws hard, was mis-cast as a starter but looked damn good in relief yesterday.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Astros would have to play at a .439 clip for the rest of the season to finish under .500. Last season, they had a .432 winning percentage overall, a .455 winning percentage in the second half.

 

In short, it's pretty unlikely the Astros finish under .500 in 2015 and it's incredibly unlikely that they are sellers at the deadline.

Oh, they are basically two games up on the Twins and everyone can see the Twins finishing below .500.  We are way too early into the season to worry about winning clips.  They run off a 5 game losing streak (which they will), it all changes.

 

[Linus]

The only prospects I would trade would be guys that appear to be 40 man casualties or impending minor league free agents.  The great thing about TR's legendary patience is that this farm system should be providing winning teams for years.

 

Let's look at the other side of the coin.  If the Twins falter before the trade deadline, who would you move (that has real value) and who would you dump?

 

I would trade Plouffe, and if I got a nearly ready catcher for him, Susuki as well.  If Hicks continues to play well, I would also deal him.  Highest and best use of Plouffe and HIcks is trade assets as opposed to another position move.

 

Of course, I would dump Pelfrey simply because he won't be here next year.  I can't believe I am writing this but......I'm not sure I would trade Hunter.  At least not unless Arcia / Rosario really step up.  I am starting to believe his attitude has made a difference and I usually dismiss that stuff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Oh, they are basically two games up on the Twins and everyone can see the Twins finishing below .500.  We are way too early into the season to worry about winning clips.  They run off a 5 game losing streak (which they will), it all changes.

I've watched the Astros quite a bit this season (I've latched on to them as my second team to watch this year). They're more fundamentally sound than the Twins, in my opinion. They won't have too many five game losing streaks with that rotation and bullpen. They might not finish in first and they might not make the playoffs but I think over .500 is extremely likely.

[Vance_Christianson]

Players I think TR should consider on trading:

Oswaldo Arcia - still very young, but too many injuries with a lot of talent in AA

Kennys Vargas - we have a surplus of DH hitters on our team now, plus we have 2-3 more coming up. I see Sano taking over DH duties in the future if we don't trade Sano.

Danny Santanna - Polanco will be our SS for sure in 2016 if not this year

Mike Pelfrey - Contract is up, and his ERA/Stats are sitting in a good spot to be dealt

 

Dreaming 2015 Trade Dealine Roster:

1. Buxton - CF  FUTURE, i'd be shocked if he isn't up by the trade deadline

2. Dozier - 2b  excels well in the 2 hole

3. Mauer - 1b   future DH possibly once Kepler is ready in 2016

4. Hunter - DH   thinking this is his last year, but i'd be happy to have him 1 more year

5. Sano - 3b   if he has a good june and july i could see the twins making this move

6. Plouffe - LF   I love plouffe in the lineup, best 6 hitter in the pro's

7. Suzuki - C   good contact hitter

8. Polanco - SS   good contact hitter

9. Hicks/Rosario - RF   Whoever has the hot bat, the other will be the 4th OF, late inning sub for Plouffe in LF

Bench: Rosario/Hicks, Escobar, Nunez, Hermann/Pinto

 

If we trade youth for stars then this is who i'd like to see:

Starlin Castro/Addison Russell

Troy Tulowitzki

Johnny Cueto

Jordan Zimmerman

 

[dbminn]

Teams that win over many seasons build from within the organization. Once they are contending, they add free agents or trade prospects to fill specific needs. The Twins are still in the construction phase. From the past six weeks, we can see the start of a solid foundation. It's an exciting change from recent years. Still, it's only six weeks! How about a little patience while the next building blocks sort themselves out?

 

By mid-July, we'll know if this team can contend. Until then, we can watch the Twins try to solve some fun problems:

• Who will win the DH and SS positions: Arcia or Vargas and Santana or Polanco?
• Will Sano and/or Buxton deserve an opportunity by the All-Star Break?
• Between Rosario and Kepler - who is the better long-term prospect?
• Will the rotation stay healthy and in form?

We'll have better information about both the major league team and the prospects by the trading deadline. We could easily become sellers instead of buyers - or maybe a bit of both. In any case, I'd rather not spend like a drunken sailor on old men making $20+ million per year based on one month of success.

 

[Vanimal46]

I love that for the first time in 5 years we are able to talk about being buyers at the trade deadline. However, we have a 0% chance of being involved in the Tulo or Hamels discussions. It took us 5 years to build up the cupboards in the minors, and now we want to clean out the cupboards for a short term fix again? I'll pass.

[blairpaul715]

 

I love that for the first time in 5 years we are able to talk about being buyers at the trade deadline. However, we have a 0% chance of being involved in the Tulo or discussions. It took us 5 years to build up the cupboards in the minors, and now we want to clean out the cupboards for a short term fix again? I'll pass.

Short term???? Hamels(31 yrs old) has 3 yrs left after this yr, and i agree that the Twins have never done something like this, but they had never signed other pitchers to 4 yr $50 plus million contracts, never have had a cupboard full of prospects, so they might do something like this if it wasnt a 1 yr idea, and again as i stated before, if we cant do something like this with an elite P, without giving up Buxton or Sano, i wouldnt  do it........I like Hamels partly cuz he has no injury history, but I am open to people putting out other ideas, and or if people think staying put is good or not...............when i originally put this out there, back in April it was just a what if, now still might be what if, but in another month or so, it might be REAL

[tobi0040]

The Twins have two things going for us right now. A) payroll flexibility - A low'ish payroll plus controllable youth coming up and a really talented pipeline of talent

 

Trading for Cole Hamels is likely to burn us through both of those things.

[Winston Smith]

Whatever they might need Terry should get by trading away Duensing!

[Vanimal46]

 

Short term???? Hamels(31 yrs old) has 3 yrs left after this yr, and i agree that the Twins have never done something like this, but they had never signed other pitchers to 4 yr $50 plus million contracts, never have had a cupboard full of prospects, so they might do something like this if it wasnt a 1 yr idea, and again as i stated before, if we cant do something like this with an elite P, without giving up Buxton or Sano, i wouldnt  do it........I like Hamels partly cuz he has no injury history, but I am open to people putting out other ideas, and or if people think staying put is good or not...............when i originally put this out there, back in April it was just a what if, now still might be what if, but in another month or so, it might be REAL

 

 

Short term was a bad choice of words on my part. At the end of the day I don't see any realistic chance of getting any elite P on the market without Buxton, Sano, or Berrios involved in trade talks. And any of those 3 involved is a quick no thanks in my book.

[blairpaul715]

 

Short term was a bad choice of words on my part. At the end of the day I don't see any realistic chance of getting any elite P on the market without Buxton, Sano, or Berrios involved in trade talks. And any of those 3 involved is a quick no thanks in my book.

Fair enough..................For me, Berrios is not off the books , I like him, but I am not sold on anything more than a #3 upside for him, but love his competitiveness, and will probably be proven wrong.

[DaveW]

If the Phillies offered up Hamels for a Berrios centered package the Twins would be extremely foolish to turn that down.

 

Yes, Hamels is owed a lot of money, but he is one of the rare guys who actually lives up to those huge numbers and the risk is pretty minimal at 3 or 4 years.

[kellyvance]

Eventually, Ryan will have to deal with a log jam of big hitters with limited defensive skills.

Arcia, Vargas and Sano. Of these, as far as hitting goes, I worry least about Vargas. 

 

Sano and Arcia are both kind of stubborn, bent on pull hitting.

Vargas showed signs of power early, but this year had a loss in power as he

embraced the concept of hitting it where it is pitched. He'll work that out. When he gets hot he can carry a team. Heck, same goes for Sano and Arcia. It would be fun to hit these guys back to back to back. 

 

But.... I don't see the Twins keeping all three. 

[KScott]

 

Players I think TR should consider on trading:

Oswaldo Arcia - still very young, but too many injuries with a lot of talent in AA

Kennys Vargas - we have a surplus of DH hitters on our team now, plus we have 2-3 more coming up. I see Sano taking over DH duties in the future if we don't trade Sano.

Danny Santanna - Polanco will be our SS for sure in 2016 if not this year

Mike Pelfrey - Contract is up, and his ERA/Stats are sitting in a good spot to be dealt

 

I agree 100% with that list of players that should be on the Twins trading block. But I would add to that a few of the guys in the bullpen:

Pressly, Thielbar, Thompson and Graham, given how many relievers we have in the works.
 

 

Also, I would add to the list--- NVM A better way to phrase this: The fielders I wouldn't be open to trading: Hicks,  Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki.

The rest  have quality alternatives coming up in the minors, and if they can net valuable pieces for later I would take it. Granted some of them won't be traded because of contract and home town status (Mauer and Hunter). But they would be worth it.

1b Has Plouffe, Vargas, Kepler as replacements (assuming Sano is at 3)

2nd is Dozier

SS has Gordon and Polanco

3rd has Sano and Plouffe

CF: Buxton then Hicks
Corner OF: Hicks, Rosario, Hunter, Arcia, Walker, Kepler (and a host more in the minors, not to mention its not hard to pick up a corner outfielder)

 

I am not saying the Twins should be sellers because they are out of it. I am suggesting they should sell big league talent move the log jam forward, but probably not make it any better-- I mean who are you going to get back, all of the positions at the big league club are filled or will be soon.

 

The other question I don't see being talked about:
 

If the Twins are buyers with the aim of taking a run into the playoffs, what do you see as the playoff rotation, given that Santana will not be able to participate. If that is your idea or philosophy, are you going to hold off on trading out starting pitching?

[Vanimal46]

..I am not saying the Twins should be sellers because they are out of it. I am suggesting they should sell big league talent move the log jam forward, but probably not make it any better-- I mean who are you going to get back, all of the positions at the big league club are filled or will be soon.

That's a good thought, we've only discussed proven MLB players as trade targets for our prospects. What if the Twins go in the opposite direction and trade for more prospects? What would the reaction be trading Plouffe away for a guy like Julio Urias?

[nicksaviking]

 

Yes, Hamels is owed a lot of money, but he is one of the rare guys who actually lives up to those huge numbers and the risk is pretty minimal at 3 or 4 years.

I would say "lived" up to the hype, past tense. Only three pitchers over 32 were in the top 20 WAR last year, and only three are in the top 20 this year. Now 31-year-old Hamels is not among the top 20.

 

In the post steroid era, pitchers have not aged well past their early 30's. I don't know why we would assume Hamels will be the exception.

[USAFChief]

 

I would say "lived" up to the hype, past tense. Only three pitchers over 32 were in the top 20 WAR last year, and only three are in the top 20 this year. Now 31-year-old Hamels is not among the top 20.

In the post steroid era, pitchers have not aged well past their early 30's. I don't know why we would assume Hamels will be the exception.

Hamels tossed 200 innings of 2.46 ERA ball last year, has a sub 3 ERA this year.

 

Personally, I don't give a rat's behind what his WAR was.  Or is.

 

 

[Rosterman]

Would the Dodgers have interest in Nolasco? Return him to the National League.

 

Look at the bigger picture. What starters will be dangled out there for teams to add/upgrade. Who might be too expensive (prospect wise) like Hamels. 

 

The Twins might find a taker for Noalsco, or Pelfrey or someone. Remember, we have Santana coming back. We have Milone and a couple of 5th guys in the minors. We may have Berrios as earlya s next season. Where do we put these guys?

 

Is Gibson the one you dangle. Is May the one you work to dangle next year?